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memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 27,785
Loc: In a Tree
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Quote:
TravelerOfSorts said: TD because of memes and geokills using Think or swim
full disclosure, i use Merrill Edge (BoA) and am not super-pleased; you can't trade a lot of common things (like USO). That being said, it is low-cost and it's scaled nicely since it's all tied in with my BoA shit
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2015 [Re: memes]
#21787258 - 06/10/15 08:03 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Geokills, let me know what you think of this stock: WMC (Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp)
This is a MREIT who has been performing well despite the impending doom of rising interest rates. This stock has risen while other MREITs have tanked such as AGNC or ARR. With a healthy dividend of ~18% I have a hard time not at least wanting to own it while it is in its up trending channel.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/V9OY5hih/
Might go ahead and pick some up with a stop of about $15 hoping it to continue trending up before its ex dividend date (of ~early July); so that the channel doesnt break.
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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You'll always have some stocks that work and some that don't, hence why I am always emphasizing the importance of disciplined risk management above all else. All else equal, you only need to be right 51% of the time to be a successful trader. 
On that note, we are getting the pop I spoke about yesterday, with the S&P and Nasdaq up over 1%. AAPL has pushed up to $129, pushing my weekly $128 calls on AAPL up to an 80% gain, and I am tightening up my stop to $128.54, so that I won't give back much of that if the stock does reverse, as the contract expires Friday and I won't be able to babysit the trade tomorrow or Friday since I will be traveling. I have two other active positions on AAPL, via July $128 calls that I am leaving on a slightly longer leash with a stop below today's intraday low of $127.85, as well as a core position in January 2016 $95 calls that do not actually have a stop on them since they are so far from expiration and I do want to maintain a core position to stay involved in AAPL regardless. Here's the charts I am looking at, four different time frames on AAPL, that help me get a picture of where the support and resistance levels are (mainly short-term stuff -- you'd want to also look at the weekly chart for your longer term positions):
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
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Quote:
TravelerOfSorts said: geo why did you sell cummins at a loss cant u ask for a higher price? their was one day recently they reached 143$ at one point in the day is it possible to get in on that like i could ask 143 and they might sell for that when stock reaches heights then someone buys at that?
Sure, you can leave a high offer on the table and hope that it gets hit, but in the case of CMI at the time of the trade I indicated, it was at the bottom of its channel, had fallen hard for three days running, and I didn't want to stick around to hope that it would bounce back to the top of the range. My trade was based on the fact that the support level I identified would hold and that the stock would return toward the top of the range, but the support level broke and that was that. To be fair, the break of support that shook me out of the trade turned out to have been a fakeout, as the stock immediately reversed higher and on higher than average volume. That's a good indication of at least a short-term floor in the stock, but I wasn't watching it at the time my stop was triggered, and the setup isn't impressive enough for me to want to get back in or chase it higher since I see other opportunities that are more compelling to me. Had I still held that position, it would be a winner right now, but discipline trumps conviction, and sometimes you just get shaken out of a good trade. It's just part of trading.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2015 [Re: Bambi]
#21787606 - 06/10/15 09:53 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Bambi said: Geokills, let me know what you think of this stock: WMC (Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp)
This is a MREIT who has been performing well despite the impending doom of rising interest rates. This stock has risen while other MREITs have tanked such as AGNC or ARR. With a healthy dividend of ~18% I have a hard time not at least wanting to own it while it is in its up trending channel.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/V9OY5hih/
Might go ahead and pick some up with a stop of about $15 hoping it to continue trending up before its ex dividend date (of ~early July); so that the channel doesnt break.
Interesting stock. I am hesitant of the sector in this environment, but if you like cash flow and you're willing to manage the position, it seems like a decent one to hold. The longer term pattern on the weekly chart is constructive, showing a "bowl" shaped basing pattern in the making, that extends back to July 2013. There is still some pretty solid resistance around $15.50-$15.75, and real support is still down at the lows of $13.25. It is consolidating above all of its key moving averages, which are coiled together, so that is encouraging. However the thing has a nasty habit of selling off when its dividend is paid, so if I were to add this stock to my portfolio, I'd probably buy a little bit now and then wait to see how the stock reacts ex-div and pick it up on signs of stabilization after the drop. I would also want to see the stock stay above the last ex-div selloff at around $14.50. I think if you set a stop at $15, it has a high probability of getting hit since I would expect price to re-test the 50 & 200 day moving averages, which are coinciding with the lower bollinger band on the daily chart right around $14.75-$14.80.
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Edited by geokills (06/10/15 09:57 AM)
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




Registered: 03/22/09
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21787630 - 06/10/15 10:00 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: All else equal, you only need to be right 51% of the time to be a successful trader. 
I've always hated this type of idea... You can be right 1/5 of the time and still be a winner. It all depends on what you're right about -- the stop and point at which you take profits. If your stop and point at which you take all profits are equidistant from your purchase price then (ignoring commissions) if you were only right 51% of the time, yes you would be successful.
But it your stop was half the distance from the purchase price than your entire profit taking point, then you would only have to be right 34% of the time to be successful; again ignoring commission and not letting any profits ride.
Not that this is a great way to think about it, but the entire notion of needing to be right >50% has always bugged me. Although I suppose this is all covered in "all else being equal," so my point is mute anyhow
Edit: Just saw your other reply. Appreciate the thought out comments. Still not quite sure what I want to do, but I would definitely be quick to take myself out if it looks bad going into the ex-dividend because of the sell-offs. But yeah, thanks.
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
Edited by Bambi (06/10/15 10:04 AM)
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2015 [Re: Bambi] 1
#21787657 - 06/10/15 10:05 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Yeah I hear ya, I suppose it's just a mantra I remind myself of for comfort in times when the market is chopping me up. Helps keep me from throwing in the towel, because ultimately, this is a long game.
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Dr. P. Silocybin
Would you like fries with that?



Registered: 09/09/08
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21787741 - 06/10/15 10:26 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Just bought some call options for CVS expiring in January with the strike at 135 ($33 above the current price) for $0.08 hopefully it wasn't a foolish move.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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CVS is going to have to rally some 35% by January for your options to have any intrinsic value. Buying so far out of the money can be tempting, because the contracts are so cheap, but it is important to remember that the contracts are cheap because there is nothing but time value on them, and being so far out-of-the-money, the probability that they will every gain any intrinsic value is extremely low. Furthermore, the delta (amount of price movement on the contract with respect to the amount of price movement of the underlying stock) will be extremely low... so even if CVS were to rally 10-20%, your options wouldn't hardly move because they'd still be way out-of-the-money.
In my view, if you wanted to leverage a position on CVS, you would want to buy $100 or $105 calls. The stock has been creating a high base all year, and it's having a nice bounce so far this week. Technically, this isn't a bad place to start building a longer term position in anticipation of a breakout, but doing it via $135 strike calls is far too aggressive (read: low probability) for me to sanction. You can also consider doing a bull call spread, say buying the November $105 calls at $3.10 and selling the November $115 calls at $0.68, for a net cost of $2.42 with the potential to make $7.48 should CVS be above $115 by November. This trade in my view, is way more realistic than CVS being over $135 come January. And I'd actually put it on in two moves, first buying the Nov $105 calls, and waiting for the stock to work its way back up to its all time high at $105.46 to sell the $115's. This will net you more credit for the $115 calls you sell, further reducing your cost basis in the $105's, if the market cooperates and you do this right, you can "own" the $10 box between $105-$115 for nothing at all (e.g. Buying Nov $105 for $3, selling the Nov $115 for $3* if and when CVS breaks out to a new all time high).
*Note that CVS would probably have to be at or above $110 before you could net $3 for selling the $115 call.
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Dr. P. Silocybin
Would you like fries with that?



Registered: 09/09/08
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21787983 - 06/10/15 11:48 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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You don't think the 135 call would increase dramatically in value if CVS went up 10% in the short term? I was going to buy the $130 calls but the bid price nearly doubled since yesterday because of the 2% move today. The November $120 calls are going for about 0.20 right now so wouldn't it stand to reason that my options would be worth a similar amount if the stock is trading at around 115 two months from now?
I know its a risky bet, but I can definitely see this stock going up 30-40% by the end of the year. I choose the January options over November in anticipation of a nice Christmas rally in December.
The only thing that really worries me is the potential volatility in the health care sector that would arise if the supreme court invalidates ACA subsidies.
Edited by Dr. P. Silocybin (06/10/15 12:07 PM)
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21789800 - 06/10/15 06:57 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said:
To recap, start accumulating to the long side Don't get chopped up! Nothing wrong with sitting the market really isn't presenting any high probability opportunities.
Quote:
geokills said: I see other opportunities that are more compelling. I be a winner right now but discipline trumps conviction, and sometimes you just get shaken out of a good trade. It's just part of trading.
side chopped your posts about side chops. WFM whole foods market MRU metro The Fact is WFM looks tight. WFM has little main stream presence in Canada. Whole foods could desintagrate MRU 8.5b company because they stripped any value in good staff for profit, a head honcho invested the retirement value in his own holdings which lost this happened twice, Metro is a nasty grocer. WFM 14b.430m should this come to Canada full tilt wouldn't you think that value could double?
Lets say I invest in NASDAQ where? WFM, then expansion into more canadian presence does that mean my stock would increase in NASDAQ or would their be new TSX stock available? What is the best case schematic? I use Onnit products daily which is new company offering a mushroom rich supplementation. Onnit is private but it's sold by Whole Foods.
Intention being acquire a long side investment portfolio. another side thought since this in real life and it matters to me; I'm a custodian but may lose my job in fall: My ability to make money on the stock market between now and then will indicate choices in career path. I'm genuinely considering going to mine for gold next year. Being able to trade on the market and work being ideal. Has anyone taken personal finance to the voice of the mushrooms?
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Quote:
Dr. P. Silocybin said: You don't think the 135 call would increase dramatically in value if CVS went up 10% in the short term?
That's kinda a loaded question, as "dramatically" can be defined in different ways. On a %-basis, yes, your option could have a dramatic move if the underlying stock jumps 10% in the near term. On the other hand, even a 100% gain on this option will only bring in $8 per contract. Then there's the two-way trading commissions (I pay $7 base each way + $0.75 per contract each way), which on such a low cost contact, can make up a fairly large % of its total value, thereby eating into your potential returns in a meaningful way.
To the point, the Jan $135 calls on CVS have a DELTA value of 0.015. This means that for every $1 of movement in the underlying stock, the corresponding option will move only $0.015 (there is some additional mathematical complexity here, in that the higher CVS goes, the faster the delta will increase, and vice versa). I do understand what you're trying to do, seemingly take on a conservative position by only having to outlay minimal capital for a potentially large %-return. What is important to remember however, is that for a meaningful $-return, you'd need to own a shitload of contracts, which increases your risk dramatically, both because you're spending more on trading commissions and also because the contracts have an extremely high probability of expiring worthless. So what you're really counting on here, is a quick continuation to the upside that you can sell into, before time decay continues to deteriorate the already minimal value of the option.
That may work, as CVS did bounce very nicely today after tagging the lower end of its consolidation range, but if you end up seeing a nice gain, I would advise you not to overstay your welcome. I'll be interested to hear how the trade works out, I hope it works out well!
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21792270 - 06/11/15 09:14 AM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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I want my next purchases in the enxt two weeks to last 20years, maybe i'll ask tech forum but it would make sense to find a hyphae stock in an outlying desolate land; surrounding, forests. im sayn where be the gold! i mean Whae z teh company building future where the present is catching up?! is that not what we all ask as investors? lol sold CMI below market value and have ATVI 27 shares on 25.76 limit. getting to work on outdoors projects.
edit - Limit because the options RBC has for direct investing described in one word? constricted edit #2 - i was going for a bit of an alagory or a metaphorical image but i think that sounds like a terrible stock for long term because all it would be doing is telling the forest its good to go out there, then that hyphae would have all its info uzed by teh nature of the bush it would probably have some representation for some time but not long term
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
Edited by TravelerOfSorts (06/11/15 09:28 AM)
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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I always thought it would be hilarious to have and Indian American financial advisor. Maybe not in real life, but in a sketch comedy bit or something.
"Like the meandering river moves across from valley to valley, so too shall your returns traverse across a range of values. Fear not as the the path is true, but it is not direct"
"I have spoken to Wise Bear in the sweat lodge and he has told me that the Fed will raise rates in the 3rd quarter"
"The soaring eagle can only fly for so long against the wind. So too is the story of the bond market"
"The solitary buffalo is an easy target to the wolfs. But in numbers they are strong against preditors and can fend off attacks against the weak and young in their herd. And like a herd of buffalo, diversification will give you protection in numbers against the wolfs of wall street"
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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I just purchased another 50 shares of ENF.to at 33.82
Enbridge Income Fund on the TSE as it dropped below book value which is astonishing to me. I've owned the stock since 2013 and it had produced a huge return of over 50% in that time, plus a 6% dividend on my average cost, paid monthly. It currently yields 4.5%
In the spring I sold off about 30 shares at just over $40, but with it being below book value I would like to continue to acquire shares.
ENF has revenues that are roughly 30% green energy, 30% nat gas distribution, and 40% oil pipelines. Oil has been slammed lately and I feel like this stock has been unfairly beaten down. It will be doing a secondary issuance of shares and likely issuing some debt in the near future as it takes over Enbridge assets, but as it currently has ZERO long term debt and I am not at all concerned. It has lost about 8.5% in the last 5 days and I feel like this is a buying opportunity for long term investors even if oil prices do not have a quick recovery and it is in a good position to expand its green energy assets.
Edit: dividends paid monthly
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
Edited by Ahab McBathsalts (06/11/15 02:35 PM)
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Dr. P. Silocybin
Would you like fries with that?



Registered: 09/09/08
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I appreciate the insight Geo. Especially in terms of the delta I had no idea what that meant. This is my first attempt at trading options. I'm using options house their platform isn't great, but they offer really cheap commissions ($5 base and .50/contract) so the 20 contracts I purchased only cost $15 in commission on the $160 principal investment. They only need to go up 2 cents to cover the commissions. I would be very tempted though to hold on to them (for perhaps too long) in hopes of seeing 10x, 20x returns in the event that they get close to being in the money. The possibility (however slim it might be) of making $2000 seems worth the risk of losing $175.
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
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damn it i dont like this game. I spent 600+ on ATVI ended up getting 534 back. i wouldnt have had to sell if my direct investing page hadnt lagged it didnt show that i put a 300$ purchase on last night then all of a sudden i realise i just put 2 through and owed the bank 300$ lol so anyway thats not fair so i sold ATVI however i want to share a video that came out and i want you to keep in mind my previous posts about ATVI and WFM. http://finance.yahoo.com/video/bulls-play-atvi-164500662.html
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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hidenseek1
Its got all the dinks.
Registered: 12/22/12
Posts: 5,423
Loc: poop
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anyone seen this stock? "GKNT" i just started looking at stocks this week, but this one looks like its doing something funny to me, what do you guys think?
-------------------- You can drink at 7 A.M., because the Beastie Boys fought for that right -------------------------------------------------------------------------- pons asinorum -------------------------------------------------------------------------- lsd and the vietnam war changed music forever
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2015 [Re: hidenseek1]
#21802536 - 06/13/15 01:28 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
hidenseek1 said: anyone seen this stock? "GKNT" i just started looking at stocks this week, but this one looks like its doing something funny to me, what do you guys think?
Getting bought out for 20 cash by GameStop.
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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hidenseek1
Its got all the dinks.
Registered: 12/22/12
Posts: 5,423
Loc: poop
Last seen: 6 years, 10 months
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Re: Stock Update for June 9, 2015 [Re: LunarEclipse]
#21807163 - 06/14/15 04:52 PM (8 years, 7 months ago) |
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Hudson's Bay Co jumped up $2 today
-------------------- You can drink at 7 A.M., because the Beastie Boys fought for that right -------------------------------------------------------------------------- pons asinorum -------------------------------------------------------------------------- lsd and the vietnam war changed music forever
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