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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: memes]
#21637312 - 05/04/15 10:16 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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savinga bit and eventually self directing so boys research begins aye.
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: TravelerOfSorts]
#21639749 - 05/05/15 02:47 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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dow closed below 18k nasdaw below 5k s&p below 2.1k
:evilgrin:
transports down 1.5% russel 2000 down 1.5% china pmi (still) slowing
bad US trade data likely a contraction in US economy in 15Q1 (both likely largely stemming from strong USD)
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Bambi
Friendly Forrest Animal




Registered: 03/22/09
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: memes]
#21671997 - 05/12/15 08:39 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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Update on FNMA in case anyone cares; more of a journal entry to see how my charting is. So looks to me like tomorrow (or possibly the next) will be a big day (or possibly a tiny day).

Recent news, as of Tuesday, includes the winning of a lawsuit where they are going to be paid ~$800 mill from Nomura Holdings -- although they had requested ~$1.1 bill. So I suppose while it good it isn't good enough.
Tomorrow will be an interesting day.
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"I want to read, talk with my friends via the computer, and enjoy my life now that people know I'm not dead. " -Rom Houben
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 492
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: Bambi]
#21701339 - 05/20/15 06:56 AM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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Opening self directed in RBC. I have cash in RRSP AND TFSA. I hope to invest or diversify currently doing sub par and someone else is making money on my 50$ bi weekly inside RBC canadian dividend fund SA. and doing well with the conservative RBC select balance fund SA.
possibly going to join military this winter. going tor recruitment centre. canadian "centre"
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Stock Update for May 20, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21702294 - 05/20/15 12:48 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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The market is starting to behave a little bit better, breaking to new highs last week and creating a higher base within the longer term range of consolidation. This isn't to say that we won't fall back to 2100 on the S&P in the near term, but now that we are starting to set new highs on top of a series of higher lows, the average cost basis for traders is being driven higher, which can ultimately support a stronger move to the upside. The fact that the short term lows have been improving, allows us to set our stop losses closer to the current price, thereby allowing for more aggressive position taking while still maintaining relatively low risk. In other words, I am starting to feel more optimistic about further upside, but will readily watch for a pullback that finds support at 2100 on the S&P as a prime buying opportunity.
Just to followup on the trading example I laid out for GILD in post#21578043 about a month ago, the stock did churn around a bit more than I had expected above its 200 day, which did shake me out of part of my position, but because the stock never really broke the primary support line, I did hold on to a chunk, which I just sold as the stock printed a lower intraday low. Mind you, the stock is bouncing back very strongly, but it's up 10% in less than two weeks, and since I was using a leveraged call option position, I am happy to book these profits and wait for the stock to churn around a bit more before re-entering.

My note about waiting for TSLA to break above $213 as a sign of continued upside worked well, as the stock is now trading around $245, around 15% of upside in about a month.
Another stock that I am holding a position in right here is SWKS, breaking out of a multi-month period of consolidation, creating a high base, however I expect the stock to stall as it approaches $115-$120, since it is already extended quite a bit above its 200 day moving average. Therefore, I am playing this with shorter term July $105 calls that will be sold quickly if the stock shows signs of reversing.

FB is also looking interesting here, and I have added to my position today. Although it has not been performing as I would have liked over the past month, it is firming up after bouncing off of its 200 day moving average in the wake of its earnings report. AAPL is still in consolidation but also looking like it wants to work its way up to test its all time high. These are long term positions that I have traded in and out of for years, and I think they are giving you an opportunity to buy right here.
I have also been doing well with GPRO, which after a long period of selling, has steadily been creeping back up over the past few months. I expect near term upside to be capped near $55-$58 and on that note unloaded half of my calls but am holding the other half for a breakout above the last earning's high of $54.06 -- which looks like it'll happen today. AMBA, which makes components for the GoPro camera, has been doing even better, but I wasn't holding any and can't in good conscience buy it here since it is already up 22% in about a week. SUNE is also continuing to slowly work higher, as is PANW (note that PANW reports earnings next week).
New positions I put on this week include a small call position in OA, a defense company that looks like it wants to go higher. The company's fundamentals (growth, valuation, PE, et al) look good and this is one I'm putting away in my retirement portfolio, but I am starting small, since they also report earnings next week. Another new addition is HABT, a hamburger chain that I enjoy and does a lot of business around my area, and a relatively new stock that looks like it wants to start setting all time highs.
I am also watching NHTC, a stock that has been unbelievably strong, up some 300% this year. I haven't had the wherewithal to buy any, which is unfortunate, because if I had, I'd be up huge. Often the stocks that are the hardest to buy (i.e. "won't let you in") are the ones that just keep going higher. Of course, the party does ultimately end at some point, and with these rockets, their fall from grace is usually really ugly. I would like to see a tag of the 20 day moving average here to enter a position. The company has been growing very fast, and only recently has started to attract large investor attention. This is a high flier for fast money and should not be traded haphazardly, but if you like the fast movers, this one might warrant your attention.
S&P setting new all time highs as I finish up this post. Transportation stocks are still a red flag, as they are down 1.5% on the day and below their 200 day moving average. Generally, the market (i.e. S&P) has a hard time moving to new highs unless major sectors like the transports, semiconductors and financials are moving higher in tandem... so play it close to the vest, but know that the market is not broken right now. Just remember that it's generally better to buy on a pullback to test support, rather than buying the breakout. Don't pile in, and don't hold onto things that aren't working.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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memes
Blessed



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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21702714 - 05/20/15 03:20 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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6mo DJI chart gives me a positive feeling overlay it with DJT and it gives me confusion overlay them both with our global situation, and i sit on my hands
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2015 [Re: memes]
#21703317 - 05/20/15 05:50 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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Yeah, transports (DJT) are a pretty big caution right now. Although I mention starting new positions and adding to existing positions, I have also been taking profits and tightening up stops on all trading positions. For example, the calls I added on FB today will be kicked to the curb if today's intraday low, coinciding with the stock's 20 day moving average, fails to hold. Likewise, SWKS will be dropped if today's low doesn't hold.
Airlines UAL and LUV are looking like a pretty good shorting opportunity on any bounce. I will be stalking the June $55 puts on UAL tomorrow, looking for a fill at or below $2.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21705396 - 05/21/15 07:07 AM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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With repetitive patterns being the cornerstone of technical analysis, what are your thoughts about the Shemitah of 2015 and it's implications for stock prices? I'm looking to buy puts for what I think will be a huge disaster coming our way this September and October. In fact I feel so strongly about this based on research into numerous areas including financial, and the convergences are just too powerful to ignore.
Perhaps buying index puts would be the best plan, if one wants to bet on a general crash? I'd like to really try to catch the top somewhere in what usually seems to become a "summer rally" so am looking at July-August as a potential all time high and spot to short this thing to the hilt. Maybe get VIX at the 11 range?
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2015 [Re: LunarEclipse]
#21705502 - 05/21/15 07:57 AM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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Not being conventionally religious, I have no opinion on Shemitah. I do however, have a strong opinion about attempting to pick a top in the market; which is to say, it's a fool's errand. It might be nice for the ego to call a bottom or a top, but the fact is, those who try are almost always wrong, or keep reasserting their call so many times over that they are ultimately proven right, but only after having missed tremendous opportunity by being wrong for so long. Identifying trends and catching the middle of those moves is where I have found success, and since I am no fortune teller, what makes the most sense to me.
On that note, the primary trend in the S&P remains intact, there are wiggles all the time, but zoom out and the trend higher is unmistakable, even as there have been a few warning shots such as the divergence in the McClellan Summation Index vs the S&P that I have noted, as well as the impending breakdown in the transportation sector. Thus, I am cautiously optimistic, and always use stops in recognition of my inability to know what will happen, in conjunction with my desire to define risk and limit loss of capital.
Set your alerts, revise those alerts as the trend continues to develop, and when a break is signaled, that's when you initiate your short. Don't pile in. Then wait for a rally up to prior support (now resistance) to add to your short position. And always use stops on at least a good chunk of your exposure to the market, because the market has a knack for catching traders off their guard.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Stock Update for May 22, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21709689 - 05/22/15 09:08 AM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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Taking some risk off ahead of the weekend and Janet Yellen's speech in a few hours. My positions have been doing very well and I simply don't want to give back my gains. Furthermore, the continued breakdown in the transports today along with the fact that the S&P is a little bit extended above its short term support at 2100, doesn't inspire me to get aggressive.
As such, I have sold the rest of my GPRO as it approaches the top of its channel, sold over half of my HABT calls as it reversed hardcore style after yesterday's big move (maintaining a very small longer term core position), sold some AAPL calls and converted my July $130 calls into a July $130/$135 call spread that now only cost me $0.50 per contract while capping my gains at $4.50 per contract if AAPL closes at or above $135 by July expiration - not a bad risk/reward ratio! I also turned my Sept $155 call on PANW into a Sept $155/$180 bull call spread, lowering my cost basis by $5 per contract, now risking $6.90 to gain a maximum of $18.10 per contract if the stock is at or above $180 by Sept expiration (they report earnings next week).
I have also built a position in UAL Jun $55 puts, over three purchases yesterday and today, which is working as the stock broke to new lows, and should really work nicely if the transportation index continues to break down which it sure looks like it will.
On the bull side, I did however add to FB today, since the stock is flagging right under its 50 day moving average after having bounced from its 200 day moving average last week. It just looks like it wants to break out, showing relative strength with respect to the aggregate market and its sub-sector, but I'm keeping this one on a tight leash, with stops at $80.60 and just below $80, although I will maintain a longer term core position in this even if both of those stops get hit.
Current positions: - FB Jun $80 calls
- UAL Jun $55 puts
- AAPL Jul $130/135 bull call spread
- HACK Sept $30 calls
- PANW Sept $155/$180 bull call spread
- HABT Sept $35 calls
- TTPH Nov $40 calls
- OA Nov $75 calls
- SUNE Jan $20 & $25 calls
- FB Jan $75 calls
- MDVN Jan $100 & $120 calls
- AAPL Jan 2017 $95 calls
- NE Jan 2017 $15 calls
- LINE Jan 2017 $13 calls
- MKND Jan 2017 $5 calls
- 25% cash
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (05/22/15 10:17 AM)
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LunarEclipse
Enlil's Official Story


Registered: 10/31/04
Posts: 21,407
Loc: Building 7
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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21713242 - 05/23/15 07:05 AM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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Repetitive patterns are the cornerstone of technical analysis. Religion or lack thereof has nothing to do with this, nor does calling a top. It is merely the observation that on the past two dates in question, the market dropped 7% on each day.
All the market "technicians" have become the self fulfilling prophesies as they analyze the same chart in the same way looking at the same moving average and placing way too much importance on it. Of course, if everyone thinks that line is important, then it truly becomes important, if they all do the knee jerk and bounce it up again when it gets hit...
-------------------- Anxiety is what you make it.
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 492
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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2015 [Re: LunarEclipse]
#21713489 - 05/23/15 08:55 AM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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hey yo starting financial future my DI account is TFSA and ipractice baught oppenhiemer olympus and some other grease/oil affiliate lol I want to trade either currency or the minerals. whats the program u guys use?
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


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hey how u guys feel about investing in sub sections of auto, for example Cummins invested unknown into agility fuels system. Years ago formula one had to reboot entire setup re-enter the game. This said: nissan will bring front wheel power storage this yeah I mean soon Years. anyway Nissan might have a little jump I guess Im asking lets say any of these innovations go big lets say nissan up and comes - to honda stature, and their company increases maybe a bill because of it where does that leave sub 1000$ investment?
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Stock Update for May 26, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21724936 - 05/26/15 01:42 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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Hard market to get in front of, continued churning with another big swing down today as the transports definitively lose touch with their 200 day moving average, creating a volatility expansion to the downside - this is a major headwind to the market, and the fact that the small cap index (Russell 2000/IWM) appears to be creating a lower high and hanging off of its 50 day moving average adds to the pressure that is keeping a lid things.
I added to my UAL short position early this morning, but have since closed the entire position, since the stock is well outside of its second standard deviation band, and as I am playing with front month put options, I definitely don't want to overstay my welcome and lose what has turned into a profitable trade in very little time. Pulled an average gain of 40% on this position in only five days. If the stock rallies back up to ~$55/share, I will consider repeating this trade by buying more puts on signs of any faltering.
The other sales and hedges I put on last Friday are helping protect me in today's downdraft, although I was stopped out of my short term FB calls for a small loss, and just barely shaken out of half of my TTPH calls (although the stock is actually behaving rather well today). Both FB and AAPL are having a particularly rough go of it. I will be watching for a bounce in AAPL later this week so I can buy back the calls I sold as a hedge, although I may just let the hedged call spread run to expiration (July) since I am at this point playing with the house's money and the market as a whole doesn't look like it's in any hurry to break out to the upside. FB I'm not too interested in messing with either way right now, and I will hold my core position unless the stock closes below its 200 day moving average.
Interesting that the S&P fell to 2100 so quickly, right on its 50 day moving average. If I were a betting man, I would consider adding long exposure here, but with the transports so glaringly weak and every sector down so far today, I think that there is a good chance that we see another drop this week, where I will be looking for the S&P to bounce at 2080-2085. Right now, adhering to my stop levels and sitting on my hands seems like the best idea, even as I am tempted to buy some SPY calls (and would, were it not for the transportation average breaking down).
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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Quote:
TravelerOfSorts said: whats the program u guys use?
TDAmeritrade's Think or Swim platform.
Quote:
hey how u guys feel about investing in sub sections of auto, for example Cummins
I don't know anything about the industry specifically, but CMI has been in such a long base, that if starts to close above $144.50, I would be interested in buying it.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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memes
Blessed



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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21725298 - 05/26/15 03:34 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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Geo, are you officially a day trader now? aka thats' your primary activity during market hours, most days?
With the attention you've gotta devote to these actions, i can only imagine it's gotta take a decent chunk of time~
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2015 [Re: memes]
#21727974 - 05/27/15 09:40 AM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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When the market lends itself to day trading, I will day trade, but the amount of time actually spent "on the market" each day is highly variable and dependent on the conditions present. Although I check in on my portfolio and the aggregate market every day, most days do not require any action. Once you learn how and where to set price alerts, which get sent directly to the cell phone, it's like having a private trading assistant that informs you when you need to pay attention, and the rest of the time you can just relax and do other stuff! Sometimes I'll even set automated trades to execute upon specific price alerts, so I don't even need to actively put on the trade (although once I am informed that a trade has been executed on my behalf, I will always want to review the market conditions so that I can define my risk by setting an appropriate stop level).
I generally spend an hour or so in the afternoon or evening reviewing what happened during the day and setting price alerts on various stocks, S&P futures and sector indexes. I wake up at 6am pacific time (half hour before the open) and generally stay at my desk until 8:30am-9:30am putting on trades in accordance with the price alerts I set the previous day, as opportunities present themselves. Many days they do not, and if after watching the opening rotation (the first 15-30 minutes of trading), the market is not what I consider to be actionable, I'll probably just go back to sleep. Today is one of those days, and after waking up and reviewing the open, I copped an extra hour and a half of shut eye.
While the market takes up the most amount of my time on a consistent basis, I would guess that I still only spend an average of three dedicated hours on it each day. While I do tend to move in and out of positions opportunistically, I do still hold several core positions that are for the most part, set 'em and forget 'em. These positions are typically held via call options that expire up to two years out, and thus while leveraged, will not swing as wildly as shorter dated (and correspondingly less expensive) option contracts.
Note that I am not at the point where I could comfortably sustain my living standards strictly via my work in the stock market. I recently opted to put most of my free cash into a nice home, and obtain regular income from separate real estate rental revenue. If I were to finance the home, sell the rentals and use that capital in the market, I might be able to live off of my trading, but it wouldn't be comfortable for me since the market is so variable - I know my own personal psychology, and I know that I will trade better under the security (i.e. reduced pressure) of owning the home and achieving multiple streams of income, even as those choices leave me with less free capital to use in my active investments.
Trading really has helped teach me about my own emotional tendencies and reactive behaviors, and has reinforced the importance of finding balance in all aspects of my life.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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memes
Blessed



Registered: 01/11/05
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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21729633 - 05/27/15 05:35 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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fuck yeah hell yeah 
This has probably already been asked in here, but i don't want to search back through forever; but did you have any formal education here? Internship or job in finance? Or did you simply read a book or two, pay attention for decades, and built your knowledge base and technical toolbox as time (and experience) progressed?
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elax420
Anal Destroyer


Registered: 10/16/12
Posts: 15,536
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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2015 [Re: memes]
#21730087 - 05/27/15 07:51 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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I dont know about investing in Facebook. Another Bear market is inevitable and Facebook is overvalued. Ild actually short Facebook.
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TravelerOfSorts
sober pro


Registered: 06/29/11
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Re: Stock Update for May 20, 2015 [Re: elax420]
#21730303 - 05/27/15 08:53 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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so you basically have to ahve money comming in from work too because it appears after reading that you have interchangable money then new money to expose to your crazy efforts. which I really respect this and basically went to panning for gold regardless. ahhback to reading your posts lol
-------------------- a soul of solitude but a master of ecstacy in waiting for my rebirth cycle i have hopes that when mushrooms find me it will occur then and i can go about the world as a medicine man walking staff in one hand spaceship in the other a journeyman of nature soon to be stepping up to novice hopefully i will have time to become an expert, and i believe only in death will i become a master
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