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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21519974 - 04/08/15 03:52 PM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: Smart move on behalf of the company, raise capital while the price is rich.
I don't understand how they're selling X million shares at $27 when the market price is well above.
p.s. how do i get in on this buy @ 27 gig. my account is with ME/BOA, who are underwriting it. obv i hold some and would want to hold more @ 27, esp with its close above $30 today (+~8%)
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: memes]
#21520374 - 04/08/15 05:27 PM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
how do i get in on this buy @ 27 gig
Contact a client service representative at the underwriting bank and tell them you want to purchase the shares offered. They'll walk you through the rest, if they have an allotment that is still available.
The reason the shares are being offered under the current market rate, is because they need to convince buyers to sop up a significant amount of additional supply. How can you move a lot of excess inventory? Put it on sale! This exemplifies why secondaries are generally bad for the existing holders of a stock, because a lot of additional supply comes on the market, which is dilutive to the per share value of the company, and thus they price the new shares at a discount, in order to compel more buying than would otherwise occur in the underlying issue. Typically once the secondary offering is priced and sold, the price of the stock on the open market will gravitate towards the level that the secondary was priced at. Often enough, the stock may even fall below that level, as buyers who already made good money on the prior run the stock has had, may decide that the dilution is reason enough to take the money and run.
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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: geokills]
#21520379 - 04/08/15 05:29 PM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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makes sense I 'spose~
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extreme


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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: memes]
#21521754 - 04/08/15 09:15 PM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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I posted in this thread once or twice so it's bookmarked, but just a quick question, how much are some of you guys making (be as vague as you'd like or just don't tell me at all, it's not exactly my business) but I've always been curious about investing.
Sure seems there is a lot more to it than investing in a company that you expect to grow, and then just cash out (well maybe in its simplest terms that is basically what it is) but it seems to be a lot more involved than that.
Is it worth investing in this type of stuff if you don't already have at least a couple hundred/thousand bucks to throw around? Sorry these are probably pretty noob questions but I barely know a thing about this stuff... but it does interest me.
... Hence why I made my first post here, just to read what the people who actually do this stuff have to say and try and learn about it a little bit. Ignore this post if necessary, it's pretty basic and I don't want you guys treating me like an idiot when indeed I am an idiot when it comes to this stuff. If anyone wants to answer a couple of my questions I'd really appreciate it, but I'll keep my expectations low. I do enjoy glancing over some of the stuff posted here, even if I don't understand it much.
Not sure what I'm trying to say exactly, but props to you guys and I hope all your investments are the best ones!
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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: extreme]
#21523943 - 04/09/15 12:31 PM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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Geo's the one in here who actually knows whats going on. I only put $1,000 into the market. The low level of input keeps you from really diversifying & the trading fee can easily eat into returns.
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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: memes]
#21524003 - 04/09/15 12:48 PM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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got out of DYAX today~
+62.9% is the final number.
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geokills
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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: extreme]
#21528343 - 04/10/15 11:26 AM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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Hey extreme, pretty extreme to think we'd treat you like an idiot just for asking questions! 
How much you will potentially make through investments is always going to be correlated to how much capital you have to invest. Take a peak at this article published yesterday, which notes that capital gains and interest and dividend income is responsible for around 70% of gross income for people who make $10 million or more, whereas for the 99% of taxpayers making less than $500,000, it's salaries and wages that account for around 75% of gross income.
I am in the later class of investors, and I understand how this can be a fairly discouraging statistic, but despite the fact that the rich will always be snaring a disproportionate amount of the money that flows from the stock market, it is still a viable way to utilize excess capital for long term asset growth for anyone who has excess capital available. This isn't to say that one should use maximum leverage or take on debt to invest, but if you have money to allocate, stocks have historically proven to be an excellent place to put that money to work.
As I believe I touched on in the first post of this thread, it's generally a good idea to have at least $5,000-$10,000 on hand to start actively investing in stocks and options. This allows you some flexibility to trade into and out of positions while maintaining some diversified exposure. If you have less than that available, I still advocate contributing to a retirement account of some sort (ideally a Roth IRA for those of us in the United States who make less than $100K a year), and then placing that money into a diversified index tracker like the SPY, which will get you a piece of the action for 500 of the biggest companies in the US.
The S&P 500 (which the SPY ETF tracks) is the most common standard by which independent money managers compare their performance, and the majority of independent managers fail to beat this index! So this should go to show you that you don't necessarily need to spend a bunch of time managing stocks, to reap their rewards over a longer time period. I choose to do my best to beat the market (and make no mistake, it's not assured and I've definitely had periods where I ask myself why I am spending so much time spinning my wheels ), because ultimately I have extra time to do this and I find it both interesting and exciting. I also know that as I have gained more experience, I have become a better trader, and so I trust that over the long haul, I will be able to better capitalize on unusual market events which in turn create opportunity for those who know how to recognize and respond to them. I have however learned to keep a position in the SPY as my mainstay, since I know first hand how difficult it is to beat the market with regularity.
PS. Congrats on a great trade meams!
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: geokills] 2
#21549604 - 04/15/15 12:54 AM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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BUY when there is blood in the streets and SELL when there is dancing in the streets
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: Village-idiot]
#21553972 - 04/16/15 04:36 AM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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I'm out of LL; +12.45%
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: memes]
#21554071 - 04/16/15 05:44 AM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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some nice positions going on there memes !
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: ohmatic]
#21554650 - 04/16/15 10:01 AM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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Well I've been hiding and ignoring my portfolio for about a year now since I made some bold moves and it didnt quite go as planned... (in hind-site I got greedy and was too busy to be investing anyway) but oh well!
Looking to become actively involved again, but im a bit nervous. One stock that is looking pretty good to me for a trade is FNMA. Popping out from between its 200 dma and 50 dma. A bit of resistance at $3.00, but last time it was above $3.00 it jumped. Here is a chart.

Opinions? I figure there is some support at $2.90, $2.80, and $2.75. With a potential upside of up to $3.50.
Just curious for some feedback
Edited by Bambi (04/16/15 10:06 AM)
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: Bambi]
#21554697 - 04/16/15 10:17 AM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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Support starts at 2.70. Resistance is at 3. I'd be really looking at the fundamentals on this one to try to make sense of it, but the chart does look promising. Lots more upside volume and big moves, then it drifts back. A bit of a too big drift back to 2.30 which is your next support. What compels me to own it based on fundamentals? Technically it looks just OK although it could go back to 5.
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: ohmatic]
#21555797 - 04/16/15 03:05 PM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
ohmatic said: some nice positions going on there memes !
blind luck, of course. but thanks 
between the two positions (i'm back to holding nothing) it was a nice little 3-week +32% toe-dip into the market
DYAX: bought at $17.44; sold at $29.00 LL: bought at $29.22; sold at $33.25
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Re: How to Enter / Exit a Stock Position [Re: geokills]
#21578043 - 04/21/15 08:14 PM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said:
Let's take GILD for example, since it is pulling back to a support level, close to the psychologically significant nice even figure of $100, which also happens to be the home of its 200 day moving average, and darn near close to the 50 day moving average as well. Notice how the price action has been in an ever narrowing range, this reflects a fairly even balance of power, and is what one would consider an inflexion point, as a strong move in either direction is likely to be met with continuation.

I can start by buying 1/2 of my position right here, because the recent low on 4/1 of $95.38, which I would consider the perfect place for an "Oops, I'm wrong" stop loss, is only 2.5% lower than where the stock is trading now at $97.79. Hell, with 2.5% risk, I might even just put on the whole position, but for the sake of teaching, let's just say we put half our money in now. If GILD falls below $95.38, that will indicate a decisive break of the 200 day moving average and the longer term uptrending support line, which will likely lead to more traders wanting to exit their position (i.e. balance of power shifting to sellers). If on the other hand GILD breaks above its down-trending resistance line at around $101 (which can be found by connecting all of the recent highs going back to late October), that will affirm the 200 day moving average as support and likely make those holding the stock more comfortable continuing to hold, while encouraging others who have been watching and/or only have a small position (like me) to start buying more.
These support/resistance levels are constantly being redefined as new price action develops, so that's where the nuance comes in, in knowing how to spot these changes and react to them by adjusting your expectations and your stop loss levels.
Let's stick with the GILD example and say that the stock has broken above $101 and we now have a full position. When to sell? Well, we again look to history as a guide but equally as importantly we need to understand our own time frame. If we are intending for this to be a short-term trade, we understand that there are specific levels on the chart above where buyers have lost power to the sellers, namely the $105-$108 area, and ultimately the all time high of $116.83. As time marches on, the stock will zig and zag a bit, so pay attention to where buyers are stepping in. If this is a short term trade, you will want to raise your "Oops I'm wrong" stop loss level as soon as new short term support levels manifest. If these are indeed very short term levels of support, I would consider making your stop losses for 1/4 or 1/2 of the position. This allows you to scale out of some of your trade profitably, while letting some of it ride in the event that the stock continues moving higher. Keep doing this, and you should either be out of the trade with a negligible loss (if your first stop loss is hit), or increasingly larger profits if you continue to raise your stop loss levels in accordance with the rising price action. As for those resistance levels on the chart mentioned above ($105-$108 and $116.83), those are areas where, if broken through, you should definitely be placing partial stops, because resistance, once broken, tends to turn into support on a re-test of that level. If on the other hand you didn't fill up on a full position early, you could also consider adding to your position on a break through a resistance level, or a successful re-test of that level.
This example is playing out quite well. You can see that GILD did resolve to the upside out of the symmetrical triangle within which it was consolidating, churned around for several sessions, ultimately falling back to test the breakout level (also home of the 50 day simple and 200 day exponential moving averages), and bounced strongly upon its retest of the breakout level. Because this bounce occurred right on top of the prior resistance line, and was made on very heavy volume, I consider it a significant line in the sand. Thus, my stop level has moved up to this morning's intraday low, at $100.89. GILD should not move below that level, and if it does, I don't want to own it.

Two things to bear in mind... the "market" is still in a trading range / consolidation period, presently bumping up at resistance around 2100 on the S&P. While we may ultimately see a breakout, it hasn't been profitable to expect one, as every time the S&P has hit this level over the past few months, it has been rejected. Additionally, GILD is set to report earnings on April 30th. That's enough time to trade the momentum as we head into the earnings report, but it is important to remember that earnings are always a wildcard, and its best not to have an oversized position on the day they report.
Two other stocks I am really liking right now are FSLR and PANW. The former is in a very tight period of consolidation, right on top of its major moving averages, and the later just today broke out of a period of consolidation. Both companies still have plenty of time before they report earnings, so as long as the aggregate market cooperates, I think these are both going to run higher into their reports.
AAPL on the other hand, is set to report next week. The stock is also trading in an ever tightening range right on its 50 day moving average. I am long, but have a hard time wanting to get aggressive right in front of their report, since most of their iWatch sales revenue will not be included in this report (they book revenue when an item actually ships, not when it is ordered). Nevertheless, I do think their iPhone 6 will continue to have sold very well, and expect that the stock will trade higher. I won't be trading this one short term however, instead holding calls and call spreads that expire many months (and even a few years) out.
FB and BA both report tomorrow, which should be interesting as I have long term positions in both. TSLA, which I don't own, looks ripe for a turnaround after having sold off for the past seven months. I would watch for a move above $213 to help confirm a new uptrend.
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Re: How to Enter / Exit a Stock Position [Re: geokills]
#21589328 - 04/24/15 07:56 AM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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FNMA has consolodated a little bit and appears to be sitting right above/at its 50 dama.

The bid is a bit low atm, making me think it might test 2.71 or 2.70, but anything below that and I would be out. Pretty simply set up trade. Still havent entered a position yet, but thinking about entering either this afternoon or monday.
Cheers!
Edit: Picked some up at 2.71; looked like good enough support on the bid order for me
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Edited by Bambi (04/24/15 08:13 AM)
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Re: How to Enter / Exit a Stock Position [Re: Bambi]
#21589934 - 04/24/15 10:13 AM (8 years, 9 months ago) |
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An interesting setup, although I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock grind sideways a bit longer. The trend of higher lows could see the stock hit ~$2.50 and still be setting up for an upside move without damaging support. The 50 day moving average as support doesn't appear as relevant as the 200 day is as resistance. If I were buying here, I would be buying small, with the intent to build my position closer to the trend line that connects the absolute lows. I would also watch for a breakout above $2.88-ish, and either add at that point (if I caught it early enough), or wait to see if the stock retraced to test the breakout level and bounced.
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Re: How to Enter / Exit a Stock Position [Re: geokills]
#21616644 - 04/30/15 08:07 AM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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Well good call about FNMA testing ~$2.50, it went low and came back up (unfortunately I didnt lower my average entry price, but oh well). Today has been a bit interesting, but it could be about ready to take off. They got an energy star award yesterday (which didnt make much of a difference) but no other news so not really sure what caused the gap up this morning. Either way I think this stock is still good for a nice little trade.

Also I apologize for the mediocre chart, not sure who has good charts that I can link in. Snipping a picture then uploading to my gallery is a bit too much of a nuisance for me.
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: memes] 1
#21617890 - 04/30/15 03:00 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
memes said: DYAX: bought at $17.44; sold at $29.00 LL: bought at $29.22; sold at $33.25
DYAX closed today at $23.91 LL at $27.49
Glad I dipped when I did, both are down ~17.5%
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: memes]
#21633606 - 05/04/15 07:34 AM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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Holy Shit!! a stock (HIL) ive owned (and was developing a good pattern -- I almost posted about it here) just jumped. Another company offered to buy it at $5.50 when it was below $4.00 on friday.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/DC+Capital+Partners+Offers+to+Buy+Hill+International+(HIL)+for+$5.50Share/10516164.html
In case anyone else is interested. I am just widely excited. Should I continue to hold or sell? I figure sell if it gets up above $5.50, then I could re-buy
Edit: Also set to release earnings today; busy ass day.
And sorry if this seems jumbled, I'm, at the moment, rather busy
oh and shit, is there a tax difference from owning shares that are bought out vs selling? never thought about that before
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Edited by Bambi (05/04/15 08:03 AM)
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: Bambi]
#21635622 - 05/04/15 04:31 PM (8 years, 8 months ago) |
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i'd take the money and run
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