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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: memes]
    #21379552 - 03/08/15 06:09 PM (8 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

memes said:
i don't like you




:woah:


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Invisiblememes
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21399351 - 03/12/15 07:06 PM (8 years, 10 months ago)

So, Lunar, I eat my words.

Can't even buy OIL or USO with Merrill Edge.  I already pulled my cash and am looking at other platforms

:ilold: :aweohyou:


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: memes]
    #21400998 - 03/13/15 06:04 AM (8 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

memes said:
So, Lunar, I eat my words.

Can't even buy OIL or USO with Merrill Edge.  I already pulled my cash and am looking at other platforms

:ilold: :aweohyou:




Best wishes, I don't know who is good maybe Interactive Brokers?


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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21401036 - 03/13/15 06:25 AM (8 years, 10 months ago)

Not sure~

Once i see continued signs of an end to this stagnation of international output I'm going to pick up some oil-related stuff.  haven't looked too far into it.

whether it'll be an ETF like USO or OIL, or individual oil-producer stocks like BP and others, i'm not sure.  but something that can take advantage of the reverse-side of the 2009-2015 oil run.


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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: memes]
    #21401064 - 03/13/15 06:34 AM (8 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

memes said:
Not sure~

Once i see continued signs of an end to this stagnation of international output I'm going to pick up some oil-related stuff.  haven't looked too far into it.

whether it'll be an ETF like USO or OIL, or individual oil-producer stocks like BP and others, i'm not sure.  but something that can take advantage of the reverse-side of the 2009-2015 oil run.




I'd avoid USO.  It's like SLV, but worse.  They routinely screw people with their futures monthly rollover transactions.  Track how they and UNG actually follow the raw commodity.  I'll be looking at some individual names that have gotten hammered by the drop in oil, but will be able to hang in there long enough to withstand the low prices until things turn around.  There's plenty of time to make that trade, me thinks oil will be weak longer than many think.  The trade meanwhile may be to buy a reasonably volatile reasonably quality oil name and sell calls against it for income.


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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #21402699 - 03/13/15 03:26 PM (8 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

LunarEclipse said:
There's plenty of time to make that trade, me thinks oil will be weak longer than many think.



you're not the only one.  as long as the world keeps getting better at getting it out of the ground - while simultaneously the global demand is depressed from some slowing economies - we'll see the price stay down.

that being said, we're at a particularly low point right now (and a potentially slightly lower one in the short-term).  as this potential capacity issue unfolds in Cushing, Oklahoma at the same time as this little demand dip between the winter heating & summer driving seasons, we might get a trough in the next few weeks here; the "bottom" as it were.




but who knows what the world is in for.  PPI came in -.5


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Re: Stock Update for December 3, 2008 - CELG [Re: memes]
    #21402781 - 03/13/15 03:46 PM (8 years, 10 months ago)

If the world goes into a depression or even continued recession, which is highly possible, oil will keep dropping. I doubt it will go back to $3 but below $30 is looking likely. I wouldn't pull the trigger too quick.

The debt crisis, the falling euro, the slowing world economy are all interrelated. If nations start dumping the euro as Greece may do soon, that alone will cause grave problems. Oil depends on industrial output being high. Consumer use is a factor too but much of that is going to and from work. No jobs mean little demand for oil. Lets hope it doesn't get that bad but lets keep an eye on the possibility.


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Re: Stock Update for November 12, 2014 [Re: geokills]
    #21413363 - 03/15/15 09:15 PM (8 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
I am no longer involved in LOCO, even though it is holding at its 50 day moving average, the market is extended overall, and I would rather have the cash on hand to deploy in the event of weakness instead of waiting for LOCO to flounder around.  I do have alerts set however, so that if it shows signs of perking up, my attention will be drawn back to it.




Good numbers for LOCO few days back.


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Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: memes]
    #21415742 - 03/16/15 12:33 PM (8 years, 10 months ago)

Indeed, LOCO had a nice pop on those numbers, consolidating at its 200 day moving average now, although testing it from the underside, which doesn't make me feel rushed to go out and buy it right here right now.  The market continues to show a lot of resilience, although there are some minor underlying divergences such as the McClellan Summation Index indicating a lower number of advancing issues while the S&P hit its recent high at 2119, relative to the prior highs it has been hitting.  This means that fewer stocks are actively contributing to pushing the market to new highs, which therefore indicates that traders must be more selective in what they own.  By no means does this indicate that the market is going to top out right here, but it is something to consider when choosing how aggressively to put your money to work.  With the way the indicator is shaping up, this is a time to wait and see - let what's working work, but don't pile into the market indiscriminately.


   


That being said, I am focused mostly on technology and healthcare/biotech, with some exposure to energy, although that sector is definitely under massive pressure and except for allocating a small portion of your capital for a long term position, you better tread lightly.  A lot of my positions are via call spreads, where I purchased an at-the-money call and have sold a higher strike call to reduce my cost basis.  This also has the effect of limiting my upside should the stock price exceed the higher priced call that I shorted, but that's OK with me, because the market is generally in a period of consolidation between 2000 and 2100 and thus the value of the higher strike out-of-the-money calls will bleed out faster relative to the at-the-money-calls I am long, as the market churns.

The stocks I am most favored on right here, via either call spreads or very long dated calls, are MDVN, ALXN, JAZZ, GILD, CELG (< all biotech/pharma related), APPL, FB, SNDK, CUDA, INVN (< all tech) and BA.  I started small positions in NE (via 2017 calls) and LINE (selling covered calls against a common stock position), and they had a nice pop where I was able to sell some covered calls for a bit of profit, but they have promptly pulled back with LINE definitely exhibiting a better pattern.  Frankly, I don't really want to own NE here, but I committed such a small amount of capital with calls that don't expire for two years, that I'm willing to see it through.  I also have a small common stock position in LC that I sell calls against, and a moderately sized position in SUNE.  Lastly, I am short BIDU.

Not really doing a lot of active trading over the past few months, and that's a good thing because I probably would've been getting chopped up pretty good.  Rather, focusing on longer term holding periods and using call spreads to insulate myself from some of the potential downside has been proving to be a more stable "I can sleep at night" strategy.

One last thing of interest to note is the small cap stocks (IWM), even though the S&P and Nasdaq aren't quite back up to their highs, the small caps are. :strokebeard:


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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: geokills]
    #21455864 - 03/25/15 02:26 PM (8 years, 10 months ago)

I just bought a small amount of GREK (Greek equities ETF) It is near historic lows at the moment. Of course they could leave the euro, default on their debt, and create a ripple effect that throws the global economy into chaos... but I tend to think that cooler heads will prevail.


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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: Dr. P. Silocybin]
    #21499659 - 04/04/15 05:30 AM (8 years, 9 months ago)

I'm incredibly slowly dipping my toes in the water.  picked up little bits of some cheap stuff a few weeks back.

grabbed LL on 3/16 @ 29.57 (+12.29%)
grabbed DYAX on 3/17 @ 17.79 (+52.07%)
[prices include transaction cost averaged over share volume]


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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: memes]
    #21502017 - 04/04/15 11:56 AM (8 years, 9 months ago)

Nice grab on the DYAX positive test results.  I hadn't even heard of that company.

To note, the Dow Jones Transportation average is threatening to break below a key support level that has successfully held four times over the past several months.  If the Transportation average doesn't hold this level next week, in conjunction with the divergence in the McClellan Summation Index that I mentioned in my last post above, these are two fairly significant red flags for the aggregate market.  I still think biotech is a good place to hideout, since it isn't particularly economically sensitive, but a falling tide still tends to pull down all of the boats in the ocean.

Monday should be interesting, especially in light of the very poor jobs number that came out on Friday when the market was closed.  The futures market was open for a truncated session and immediately dropped about 1% on the headline number, but the trading on the futures was very thin, and there is always the chance that the poor number might make market participants more comfortable with the idea that the Fed will continue to drag their feet when it comes to raising rates, which could bring buyers out of the woodwork.

My bias going in is negative, but I'll be taking off my stops at the open just to give the market a chance to gap down and bounce, but will ultimately let the price action tell me what to do - and if after the first 15 minutes of trading the market is crapping, I'll be closing positions and in fact closed a few bio/pharma positions last week, namely ALXN and JAZZ, and lightened up on CELG and GILD.  Shame I just picked up a tranche of SPY $205 calls last week on the thesis that we are close to and likely to bounce off of our longer term trend lines, I reckon that position will be down markedly at the open.  With the aforementioned potential breakdown in the transports, the McClellan divergence, poor economic numbers and the looming threat of Fed rate hikes, that's just a lot of headwind making it difficult to feel bullish in the right here, right now.


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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: geokills]
    #21506655 - 04/05/15 03:03 PM (8 years, 9 months ago)

yeah that march jobs number was in the pits


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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: memes]
    #21506914 - 04/05/15 04:28 PM (8 years, 9 months ago)

Bad news for the US, but it might be good for my emerging markets ETFs because of the speculation that this will delay rate hikes from the fed.


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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: geokills]
    #21509093 - 04/06/15 07:51 AM (8 years, 9 months ago)

Well it did prove to be an interesting (and less painful than expected) open.  We pretty much bounced immediately on the major indexes, but, the transportation average is lagging the other major indexes and has yet to move back above its 200 day moving average, which it broke at the open.  So while I am glad I took my stops off to avoid getting shaken out of positions that are gyrating around support, I'll have a hard time getting aggressive here unless the transports confirm strength by moving above their opening print.  All that said, on a very short term basis the market looks like it is providing an opportunity for some trades to the upside.  What may come to be a week or a month or a quarter out, that's a much harder call to make.

Some particular stocks I like right here are AAPL, FB, BA, SUNE and CUDA.  The plain ol' SPY looks good for a trade to the long side, since you can pretty much keep a stop below this morning's low print, which makes for a fairly low risk entry.  Biotech is still misbehaving, and while the first half hour made it tempting to rebuild my positions in GILD and CELG, they aren't showing any relative strength, so I will be patient.  I am however initiating a covered call trade on JUNO, a new biotech issue that is bouncing at its 20 day moving average and close to all time highs.  I am buying the common stock at $58 and selling the April $60 calls against it, which expire in 11 days for $3.  If I get called away, that'll be a 8.62% return in two weeks time.  If I don't get called away, I am getting a 5.2% discount on the common shares.


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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: geokills]
    #21510472 - 04/06/15 02:04 PM (8 years, 9 months ago)

Geo; got any general wisdom on entering/building/profit-taking/eliminating positions?


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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: memes]
    #21510684 - 04/06/15 02:52 PM (8 years, 9 months ago)

In other DYAX news:
Quote:


BURLINGTON, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Dyax Corp. (NASDAQ: DYAX) today announced that it is offering, subject to market and other conditions, to sell 7,000,000 shares of its common stock in a proposed underwritten public offering. Dyax intends to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,050,000 shares of its common stock. All shares to be sold in the offering are being sold by Dyax.

BofA Merrill Lynch and Cowen and Company are acting as lead book-running managers and RBC Capital Markets, LLC is acting as joint book-running manager for the offering. Needham & Company and Wedbush PacGrow are acting as co-managers.

The offering is being made pursuant to an automatically effective shelf registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on November 14, 2014. A preliminary prospectus supplement relating to the offering will also be filed with the SEC and will form a part of the effective registration statement. Copies of the preliminary prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus may be obtained, when available, by sending a request to: BofA Merrill Lynch, 222 Broadway, New York, New York 10038, Attn: Prospectus Department, or email dg.prospectus_requests@baml.com; or Cowen and Company, LLC, c/o Broadridge Financial Services, Attention: Prospectus Department, 1155 Long Island Avenue, Edgewood, NY 11717, Telephone: 631-274-2806, Fax: 631-254-7140.

This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of, these securities in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.





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How to Enter / Exit a Stock Position [Re: memes]
    #21510875 - 04/06/15 03:38 PM (8 years, 9 months ago)

There's a lot of nuance and case-specific consideration involved, but I'll do my best to impart a few key points that should be considered when entering and exiting a position, from a technical chart analysis point of view.

First and foremost, you must be able to identify support and resistance levels in a stock.  This boils down to understanding where buyers tend to step in, which in turn stops a pullback in an otherwise uptrending stock, as well as understanding where sellers may step in, which in turn stops or slows moves to the upside.  This can be looked at as a cyclical balance of power between buyers and sellers.

As a stock gets cheaper, that means that sellers have been in charge, but it also means that the longer the selling persists, the greater the proportion of those who have wanted to sell have already done so.  Ultimately, the supply from the sellers will be exhausted, and power will shift from sellers to buyers.  So when you are considering buying a stock, think about where in the balance of power cycle the stock is.  If you see signs that sellers are getting exhausted, which can come in a couple of different forms (e.g. a huge high volume sell off on a news event that is met by immediate buying, or alternatively, a long steady decline that is finding a specific price level where the stock is repeatedly being met by buyers and "bouncing"), that will allow you to identify a high probability support level, which in turn gives you the confidence to enter a position with low risk.

What makes a trade low risk, principally, is being able to identify precisely what your maximum loss may be.  Ensuring that your maximum loss is tolerable can be done two ways, buying a big position at support (low risk/high probability), or buying a correspondingly smaller position the farther away the stock is from identifiable support (low risk/low probability).
  • A low risk/high probability trade:  This is the type of trade you can go in BIG with.  This entails knowing your "Oops, I'm wrong" stop level and making sure that the stock is trading damn near close to it.  It also means that you see some evidence of buyers starting to step in.  The buying you begin to see is in effect verifying the support level you have identified through your historical analysis of the price action.  It helps if this support level corresponds with a key moving averages (i.e. the specific moving average(s) that have proven relevant for this stock in the past - which generally tend to involve one or more of the 20/50/200 day moving averages).  If the stock reverses and breaks through your "Oops I'm wrong" level, you will have used a sell stop order to close the position for a very small per-share loss.  If the stock starts bouncing as expected, you are in early and big, and can start scaling out with greater confidence since you will be more profitable to begin with (more on scaling out later).

  • A low risk/low probability trade:  You still need to know your "Oops, I'm wrong level" here, but this type of trade involves buying a stock that isn't so close to a strong support level.  The stock may be accelerating to the upside to such an extent that you just can't help wanting to get in on the upside momentum.  This is considered a low probability trade, because a stock that is accelerating to the upside at a rate way beyond what normal stocks do (or what this particular stock has historically done), will ultimately stall out and pull back at some point as the balance of power is transferred from buyers to sellers (all those buyers that bought and have massive gains in a very short period of time?  If they're smart, they won't overstay their welcome!).  So, to make a low probability trade like this one, also a low risk trade, you must mitigate your risk by adjusting your position size.  In other words, if you think the stock could take a 20% haircut and still maintain its longer term uptrend, you need to know how many dollars you can stand to lose 20% of before freaking out.  Maybe buy only a fourth of your normal position size, so that you will be involved in the stock and tracking it, but you won't lose your shirt if the stock pulls back to its strong support level lurking 20% below.  If it does ultimately pull back to that level and bounce, you can then pile in with the remaining 3/4 of your position size, lowering your cost basis and allowing yourself to turn this low risk/low probability trade into a low risk/high probability trade.  If the stock just cuts through the support level that was 20% below where you bought your first 1/4, too bad so sad, your stop loss will take you out of your relatively small position and you will live to trade another day.


There are similar dynamics involved in building and exiting a position.  All of these things are generally best done in scales.  Let's take GILD for example, since it is pulling back to a support level, close to the psychologically significant nice even figure of $100, which also happens to be the home of its 200 day moving average, and darn near close to the 50 day moving average as well.  Notice how the price action has been in an ever narrowing range, this reflects a fairly even balance of power, and is what one would consider an inflexion point, as a strong move in either direction is likely to be met with continuation.


         


I can start by buying 1/2 of my position right here, because the recent low on 4/1 of $95.38, which I would consider the perfect place for an "Oops, I'm wrong" stop loss, is only 2.5% lower than where the stock is trading now at $97.79.  Hell, with 2.5% risk, I might even just put on the whole position, but for the sake of teaching, let's just say we put half our money in now.  If GILD falls below $95.38, that will indicate a decisive break of the 200 day moving average and the longer term uptrending support line, which will likely lead to more traders wanting to exit their position (i.e. balance of power shifting to sellers).  If on the other hand GILD breaks above its down-trending resistance line at around $101 (which can be found by connecting all of the recent highs going back to late October), that will affirm the 200 day moving average as support and likely make those holding the stock more comfortable continuing to hold, while encouraging others who have been watching and/or only have a small position (like me) to start buying more.

These support/resistance levels are constantly being redefined as new price action develops, so that's where the nuance comes in, in knowing how to spot these changes and react to them by adjusting your expectations and your stop loss levels.

Let's stick with the GILD example and say that the stock has broken above $101 and we now have a full position.  When to sell?  Well, we again look to history as a guide but equally as importantly we need to understand our own time frame.  If we are intending for this to be a short-term trade, we understand that there are specific levels on the chart above where buyers have lost power to the sellers, namely the $105-$108 area, and ultimately the all time high of $116.83.  As time marches on, the stock will zig and zag a bit, so pay attention to where buyers are stepping in.  If this is a short term trade, you will want to raise your "Oops I'm wrong" stop loss level as soon as new short term support levels manifest.  If these are indeed very short term levels of support, I would consider making your stop losses for 1/4 or 1/2 of the position.  This allows you to scale out of some of your trade profitably, while letting some of it ride in the event that the stock continues moving higher.  Keep doing this, and you should either be out of the trade with a negligible loss (if your first stop loss is hit), or increasingly larger profits if you continue to raise your stop loss levels in accordance with the rising price action.  As for those resistance levels on the chart mentioned above ($105-$108 and $116.83), those are areas where, if broken through, you should definitely be placing partial stops, because resistance, once broken, tends to turn into support on a re-test of that level.  If on the other hand you didn't fill up on a full position early, you could also consider adding to your position on a break through a resistance level, or a successful re-test of that level.  If you're trading on a VERY short term basis, with a stock that has just taken off to the moon (DYAX comes to mind), I would place a stop below each successive day's intraday low.  So as long as the stock keeps making higher lows on a daily basis, you're in for the ride, but as soon as selling pressure picks up and a lower low is made, you hit the exits, thank the trading gods for your stratospherically quick profits, and avoid having to deal with a nasty pullback.

There are other ways to exit or scale out of a trade as well with the use of options (i.e. selling covered calls), but that's probably going outside of the general scope of this discussion.  I will also note that it is an excellent idea to always cross-check the chart of the stock you want to buy, with the stock of its sector index or ETF.  For GILD, you would want to look at IBB (the iShares Biotech ETF).  You would see that it is also right on its 50 day moving average, which has marked uptrending support for the better part of the past 9 months.  So, if you do take the position in GILD but the IBB starts to break below its support line, you will want to be very careful, expecting less profit potential and being generally less aggressive with GILD.  If on the other hand IBB bounces markedly and GILD shows relative strength (bouncing more on a %-basis than the IBB), that might cause you to consider being even more aggressive with GILD and adding to your position, since the whole sector is bouncing at support and GILD is outperforming its peers in the sector while also bouncing at support.

Hopefully that gives you some food for thought.


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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: memes]
    #21510906 - 04/06/15 03:44 PM (8 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

meams said:

In other DYAX news [...] announced that it is offering, subject to market and other conditions, to sell 7,000,000 shares of its common stock in a proposed underwritten public offering.




Smart move on behalf of the company, raise capital while the price is rich.  I would however note that this stock has been trading outside of its 2nd standard deviation bollinger band for three days now, which is not a sustainable place to be.  Further, a secondary offering will dilute existing shareholders (i.e. more shares outstanding = reduced earnings per share).  Of course, a company like DYAX is cash-burn oriented, not profitable and banking on a major breakthrough or a buyout offer, so the EPS consideration isn't so relevant.  Nevertheless, secondaries aren't generally a good thing for existing shareholders in the near term.


     


I know you were holding DYAX prior to its breakout, and if I were holding DYAX, I would have one stop level for half my position at $26.44 (a penny below today's intraday low - which I would subsequently revise each day that the stock makes a higher intraday low), and another stop level for the remaining half at $24.30, just below the big gap breakout the stock made on its positive drug trial data.  This lets your position continue to run, but scales you out of the position if it starts to weaken meaningfully.



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Invisiblememes
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Registered: 01/11/05
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Re: Stock Update for March 16, 2015 [Re: geokills]
    #21511028 - 04/06/15 04:13 PM (8 years, 9 months ago)

:cheers: :tiphat:

:graciousbow:

many thanks :thumbup:


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