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OnlinegeokillsA
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STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion * 8
    #7827359 - 01/03/08 12:56 PM (16 years, 28 days ago)


Note:  If you are looking for current stock recommendations, please refer to my most recent posts at the end of this thread.
This first post will serve as a stock market primer for beginners, which I will add to as I continue to learn new things.



Geo's Stock Market Primer


I started this topic in January of 2008 when the S&P sat perched upon high in the 1400's, from which we have since fallen some 50% at our worst and then witnessed a substantial recovery with one of the best stock market performances in history following the late 2008 crash.  Though the markets continue to be plagued by uncertainty, there are lucrative investment opportunities for those of you with the stomach, perspective and diligence to personally allocate your assets and faithfully manage your risk for the potential of great reward.

Many have been told that "buying and holding" is the only way to win in the stock market, but due to recent world market developments, this conventional wisdom no longer holds the same level of truth as it once did.  Given how volatile the market has become, it can definitely pay off to take a more active approach to your investments.  You must continually manage your risk by understanding your own tolerance for capital loss, and thereby creating a discipline for yourself that allows you to define your risk (or maximum loss) before entering any investment.  By preparing yourself for a tolerable downside and clearly defining that level where your investment thesis will be proven wrong, you will be able to cut your losers quickly while allowing the upside to take care of itself.

New investors often seek out penny stocks (stocks priced at $1 or less per share) because they figure that they can own a whole bunch of shares and the darn thing only needs to move a few cents in order to achieve a good return.  However, it is important to understand that losses can compound just as quickly as gains, and that penny stocks are inherently risky because they are not very liquid and will often trade solely on hype.  Generally speaking, low dollar stocks are low dollar stocks for a reason.  “Cheap” does not equate to the price per share when it comes to the real value (and potential reward) behind any given stock.

The dollar price of a stock is largely irrelevant; it is the Price to Earnings (PE) multiple that must be used to evaluate whether or not a stock is cheap within the context of the company’s underlying stability, growth and future earnings potential.  The PE multiple is the relationship of a company's individual share price divided by that company’s real (current) or expected (future) earnings per share.  The Price to Earnings Growth (PEG) multiple can also be useful to find the best relative value among the stocks of growing companies.  It is generally understood that a growth stock with a PEG of 1 is fairly valued.  Therefore, stocks with a PEG less than 1 may be considered cheap, and those with a PEG greater than 1 may be expensive.  PE and PEG are most instructive for companies that are profitable and growing, and certain stocks such as REITS or other high dividend stocks will have to be judged on different metrics. With experience, you will come to understand which situations or stocks should be judged by which metrics.

Stocks are a tricky game that can frustrate even the brightest of minds.  The stock market attempts to be anticipatory and forward looking, but it is not a perfect pricing mechanism and often does not react to obvious reason.  It is susceptible to manipulation based upon a number of factors including not only macroeconomic and company specific data, but also human psychology and technical analysis of the price action.  It will take some time to understand how these themes play together.  Once you do, you will be able to hold a higher degree of confidence in your investments, in order to avoid large losses and/or being shaken out of what could ultimately have proven to be a big winning position in the longer run.

So forget about the hype.  You don't need stock picks, you need an understanding of what the market reacts to, and you need to take the time to stay in sync with its cyclical nature.  If you aren't able to do that, you should forget about individual stock picking and will instead do much better by simply investing in a diversified ETF or mutual fund that mimics the S&P 500; or a combination of a few funds that include exposure to the S&P 500, growth sectors, growth regions, and/or a basket of dividend paying stocks.

If you have a limited amount of capital to work with (or if you want market exposure without having to do any homework!), consider investing in a low-fee S&P 500 Index Fund (such as the Vanguard 500 - VFINX).  Exchange traded funds such as SPY and DVY are also good choices for hands off market exposure.  This will leave you with a diversified portfolio that mimics the overall market benchmark.  Using this strategy, you won't have to worry about underperforming the market, and since the average 20-year market return has beaten any other asset class for the better part of the past century, this is not just a convenient way to gain market exposure, but a fairly sound investment strategy.  Doubly so, when you consider that the majority of individual investors as well as actively managed mutual funds in fact fail to beat the average market return!

To those of you craving a little more risk for the potential of great reward, you may want to focus on a specific basket of stocks.  If you'd like to do this but don't have the time to pick and keep up on the individual stocks yourself, you might consider investing in an actively managed mutual fund.  There are countless managed funds out there, but for this example let's consider the CGM Focus Fund - CGMFX.  This fund returned over 79% in 2007, a year where the average market returned about 4%.  Unfortunately, when the commodity value of oil crashed in 2008, it led shares of the then-heavily-oil-weighted CGMFX down a delirious 63% in November from a high set as recently as the prior summer season.

As evidenced, an actively managed mutual fund like CGMFX may be able to produce fantastic returns by using a sector specific strategy when that sector is in favor, but also carries significantly more downside risk when compared to the diversification offered through an S&P 500 index fund, since the specific sector(s) the fund is focusing on may fall out of favor faster than the aggregate market.  Even so, having your money actively managed by an experienced and high quality manager may be appropriate for the risk-tolerant (typically younger) investor who won't panic when taking hard hits to their portfolio over the short term.  But because a managed fund is only as good as its manager, you'll need to make sure that the fund manager hasn't left or been replaced.  If you do decide to invest in an actively managed fund, I would strongly advise spreading your capital among at least a few different funds that focus on different sectors or regions of the world economy.




"That all sounds groovy, but I want to pick my own stocks!"


Actively trading individual stocks can be a fun, exciting and profitable experience; but it will require your regular attention and discipline.  Ideally, you should have at least $10,000 of capital to work with, as having less will make it more difficult to scale into and out of positions incrementally while maintaining a diversified portfolio.  You should begin by observing the market for at least a few months.  Setup an account with a discount online brokerage (typically charging $5 - $10 per trade) such as TDAmeritrade, E*Trade, Charles Schwab, ScotTrade, Fidelity, TradeStation, or Interactive Brokers.

Create a model portfolio or watch list before you start playing with your own money.  Remember that limiting your downside is the most important thing you can do for yourself.  If you close a losing position for an 8% loss, you only have to make an 8.7% return to break even on your next trade.  But if you close a position for a 50% loss, you'd have to make a 100% return on your next trade just to break even!  How about an 80% loss?  You'd need to make a practically unobtainable 400% return just to break even.  This should help to illustrate the incredible importance of cutting losing positions early and focusing on risk management.

Your individual trading strategy will be just that, an individual strategy.  There is no strategy that will suit all investors.  If it were that easy, we'd all be rich!  You must weigh your level of capital commitment (how much money can you comfortably set aside for investing and for how long?), the amount of time and interest you have in actively managing your money, as well as your risk tolerance (how much day to day fluctuation in portfolio value can you stomach without panicking?).

Some of these questions you probably won't have a reliable answer for immediately, so I would suggest that once you allocate some capital for investing, do yourself a favor and sit on a good portion of it.  Start by investing only a portion of your available investment capital for several months before you fully commit yourself.  During this time, you will build your understanding of investing and learn more about your own personal psychology with respect to your individual investor profile.  It's easy to have a few trades go well, think you're a genius and harbor thoughts like "wow I can't believe how fast I'm going to be a millionaire!", and then pile all your money into something that ultimately might break your account - believe me, I've been there!

Unless you are unbelievably lucky, trading over any appreciable length of time is not easy.  It takes commitment and stringent discipline to perform well over the span of a lifetime.  You'll also notice that your trading style is likely to change several times over.  While you are young, you will likely find yourself taking on greater risk than as you grow older.  You'll also deal with periods of emotional confusion and frustration where you may become paralyzed, panicky or (on the flip side) overconfident as a result of the interplay between fear and greed.

In order to become a successful investor, you must learn the fundamentally cyclical nature of investing.  Stocks do not tend to go up or down in a straight line.  There are periods of buying, and subsequent periods of selling in even the strongest of stocks.  Watch the market, teach yourself how the market tends to react to events both geopolitical and financial.  Once you feel comfortably in sync with the market, start to place your bets.  Equally as important as understanding the cyclical nature of trading is to understand your own emotions.  How often I've let a good trade go bad because of my own gut wrenching emotions that constantly attempt to justify the world in front of me to my favor.  News flash: The world doesn't always work in one's favor and you simply aren't as smart as you might think you are.  One key to being a good investor is to quickly acknowledge when your thesis is wrong (don't attempt to rationalize a sudden change in your thesis in order to keep yourself in any given investment), simply get out and await the next opportunity.

This is your money.  You've worked hard for it and you must respect it.  Money that you do not respect will be money that is no longer yours.  Always remember that those who last in this game focus a lot more on the downside risk (how much money could I lose?), rather than on the upside potential (how much money am I going to make?).  Protect your capital, guard it, know how much you stand to lose before you ever enter a trade.  Risk management is the only reliable way to survive in this market.  If you can effectively manage your risk and stay involved, the upside will take care of itself.  Now that I've hammered that point home, allow me to present to you some broad guidelines that will help make you a better investor.


Diversification.  Don't keep all of your eggs in one basket!  This will help protect you from painfully steep losses whenever a specific sector falls out of favor.  Ideally, you should own at least 4 or 5 stocks for companies in different sectors in order to distribute your risk across different areas of the economy.  Even if you know that one sector is absolutely on fire, you should still keep some of your money spread around in case that hot sector falls out of favor - momentum stocks often fall even faster than they had risen!  Diversification is one very important part of effective risk management, but there is a practical limit for the individual investor; Try not to get involved with more than 10 stocks if you are only a part-time trader, as doing so will make it difficult to stay up to date on the news and price action that affects each of your positions, which is absolutely necessary in order to make timely decisions and avoid costly mistakes.  Likewise, don't buy stocks in a sour sector just to be diversified; concentrate your focus on sectors that are working.


An example of a Well Diversified Portfolio:
  • Gold/Mineral/Mining - Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX)
  • Oil/Energy - Transocean (RIG)
  • Agricultural - Monsanto (MON)
  • Consumer Staples - Proctor & Gamble (PG)
  • Telecommunications - Verizon (VZ)
  • Technology - Riverbed (RVBD)
  • Healthcare - Humana (HUM)
  • Defence - Raytheon (RTN)
  • Retail - Walmart (WMT)
  • Financial - JP Morgan (JPM)


Do your Homework.  Expect to spend at least one hour per week per stock that you own; keeping up to date on the price action, general news, press releases, earnings reports, etc.  The market moves fast and you need to stay on top of it if you want to make some serious money.  If you don't have the time to do this, hand your money over to an actively managed mutual fund or index fund, where you can still reap the rewards of one of the most lucrative asset classes without the stress and time requirement of managing your own money.  You cannot skimp on this if you want consistent returns!  When a company reports earnings or a major news release hits the wire, you need to digest the news in a timely manner and make a decision whether to buy, sell, or hold.  This includes redefining your risk (maximum loss) and/or protecting profits by raising your sell stop for example.

Only own stocks that you can understand.  Can you wrap your head around what a company actually does to make money?  Don't buy into hype!  Develop a solid thesis for why you believe the company or sector you are investing in will do better than expected in the future, as well as what could potentially go wrong to cause the company to produce weaker than expected results.  If you don't know how a company makes its money, you won't know how to react to breaking news.  Make sure you can understand what it is that your company does, and recognize the downside risk. 

Understand a stock's risk/reward ratio before you buy.  How much upside versus downside can you expect if you were to buy in at the given price level?  Identify areas of support and resistance on both the daily and weekly price charts for each stock you are following.  Remember that support and resistance isn’t always a horizontal line on the chart.  Often, support is found on various “key” moving averages such as the 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. 

The weekly chart is your decision time frame, the daily and intraday charts are your action time frames.  A stock is a longer term buy candidate when its weekly chart shows a strong uptrend.  Once you recognize a strong stock, you should zoom in to the daily chart in order to identify the shorter-term support levels, which will ultimately become your buy levels.  Unless you are planning to flip the stock as a day trader, zoom back out once you have built your position.  This will help you to retain perspective, in order to prevent you from being shaken out of a good position amidst short-term jiggles in the market that could freak you out even though the longer term trend remains intact.

Position Size.  Maybe there's a stock that has reported great earnings and jumped 10%, blowing past your ideal buy level.  You understand that stocks ebb and flow and that you should try not to chase strength, but you don't want to be left behind either!  In situations like these, buy just a little bit to get involved, and keep your position size small enough so that if the stock were to pull back to an identifiable level of support, it won’t hurt you or cause you to panic.  If you get the pull back, you can plan to add to the position and effectively lower your average cost basis.  If you don’t get the pull back, well at least you are still making some money with the small position you do have.  Staying involved will help keep you in tune with the market and aware of opportunities as they are developing.  Managing position size is a form of risk management that keeps you involved.  You don't need to (and generally shouldn’t) buy or sell your position all at once.

Do not buy (or sell) all at once.  No one can reliably and repeatedly time the precise top and bottom in a stock's trajectory.  Therefore, it is often advisable to scale into positions over time.  Take advantage of unexpected/overdone weakness to add to your winning positions, and likewise use exaggerated strength to book some profits.  I have found the use of sell stops to be a tremendous asset in helping to define my risk when entering a trade as well as to protect profits on winning positions.  It is not uncommon for me to have two or three sell stop levels for each stock position I’m holding, and will adjust these levels according to the prevailing price action on at least a weekly basis.  In this way, I am managing my risk by taking some of it off of the table whenever support levels are violated on the stocks I own.

Don't buy the best house in a bad neighborhood.  At least half of a stock's movement comes as a result of the performance of the sector within which it resides.  If a sector is doing well, it will tend to lift the stocks of most companies operating in that sector (a rising tide lifts all boats).  The inverse also holds true.  This is one reason why it is important to have a clear understanding of the company behind the stock that you own, and why you should avoid sectors that are out of favor.  If a sector is falling off of a cliff, even the best company in that sector is going to be under massive amounts of selling pressure.  The only time where it may be appropriate to invest in the "best house in a bad neighborhood", is if you believe that a turnaround is imminent based upon a specific variable such as pending political legislation or where we msy find ourselves in the current economic cycle.  So far as I’m concerned, it is far preferable to miss the early part of the move by waiting for signs of strength before entering a position.  This allows you to set a stop loss just below that sign of strength, effectively defining your risk while allowing you to catch the majority of major moves.

Don't fight the trend.  Just as humans can be completely irrational, so can the market.  Human psychology cannot be ignored or separated from how the market works.  No matter how strongly you may feel about the direction a stock should be going, discipline will trump conviction always!  You might have several reasons for why a stock should be going up, but if that stock is being sold down on heavy volume, it doesn't really matter what you think because you are losing your money.  Keep an eye on the trend of the individual stocks you own, their sectors and the market as a whole.  Use weekly charts to identify longer term trends and try not to overthink this rule.  The market often operates in extremes, so even if you think a stock or sector has fallen as far as it will go, prepare for it to fall even further.  Likewise as they rise, they will often overshoot to the upside.  Therefore, make an effort to trade in and out of your positions incrementally, setting and adjusting stop levels in accordance with the prevailing price action.

Volume tells truth.  Volume is the number of shares traded over a specific time period.  It is an excellent indicator of the validity behind a stock's movement.  High volume (greater than the 10 day average for the issue observed), will help to validate the direction of the trend.  Likewise, one should not place the same level of faith in the movement of a stock on low volume.  This is why the holiday season or shortened trading weeks tend to experience higher volatility (erratic price action).  Simply stated, there are not as many market participants on these days, and therefore smaller amounts of money can have a greater influence on the movement of individual stocks due to the overall lowered liquidity.  This in turn can lead to the manipulation of certain stocks, which can reverse quickly once the big players are back in business and the volume picks up again.

Learn how to read a balance sheet.  Every company trading on a major US exchange provides public financial documents such as their balance sheet, which will provide valuable information regarding the health of the company in question.  Avoid companies that are loaded down with debt.  Look for companies that have consistent or growing earnings & revenue, low debt with respect to cash, and good cash flow.  Many online brokers will conveniently display these key data points for you, but you can also find what you need at the Securities & Exchange website.  I highly recommend that you study How to Read a Balance Sheet, making sure to follow the "More on reading a balance sheet" links, as that's where the meat of the information is located.

Don't turn a trade into an investment. If you buy a stock for a specific catalyst (anticipating a new product announcement, takeover, merger approval, drug approval, positive government action, etc), don't turn that trade into an investment by holding onto it if your catalyst does not come to fruition.  Learn to recognize which trades you are entering for short-term catalysts and which investments you are holding for their long term potential.  There are of course confluences where short-term and long-term objectives are not mutually exclusive.  But nine times out of ten, you should stick with your original game plan and don't be afraid to sell at a loss if things are not playing out the way that you had anticipated.  There is no sense in hoping that a stock will come back up, not all stocks will recover and some will even go to $0.  Limit your losses by cashing out if your catalyst or thesis fails to materialize.

Always keep cash on hand!  This is one of the biggest and most common mistakes made by new investors (I learned this the hard way!).  If you keep all of your cash committed, you are basically saying that you don't believe that the market can drop for any reason at this point in time.  With no cash on the sidelines, you will not be able to take advantage of buying your favorite stocks on sale when the market has a bad day/week/month.  So keep at least 10% of your portfolio (the money you have immediately available for investing) in cash, so that you can put it to work when there are unexpected drops in your favorite stocks.  If the market has taken an unusually strong advance, start booking some profits because there will eventually be a pullback.  In a sideways or down-trending (bear) market, keeping even higher levels of cash on hand is important so that you don't get washed out amidst the grinding volatility and overall choppy negative price action.  You want to have that cash on hand in order to take advantage of rapid spikes downwards, also known as capitulation.  You also want that cash on hand to put to work when low risk trades with clearly defined support present themselves.  The disciplined use of sell stops will allow you to build up your cash position automatically whenever the market starts getting dicey, since you will be selling the stocks in your portfolio that are breaking support, thereby replenishing your cash reserves in wait for the next opportunity.

Dividends.  A company that pays a dividend is giving you a specified cash payment for each share of the company that you own, typically distributed directly to you four times a year (once each quarter).  If a company has a safe dividend, it could make a fantastic long-term investment as you not only receive cash flow and income on a regular basis through the dividend, but you may also capture additional upside that comes from the underlying stock's capital appreciation - in a sense, you are getting paid to wait for further upside!  Since a dividend is paid as a specific cash amount, let’s say $1 annually for a $10 stock, the dividend yield will increase as the stock's share price goes down.  That $10 stock yields 10% annually ($1/$10), but if the share price drops to $8, the yield is now 12.5% annually ($1/$8).  Since the yield rises as the share price falls, dividends act as a cushion on the downside by attracting more buyers as the stock gets cheaper and the dividend yield grows larger.  When the market has a serious swoon, buying the stocks of companies who have consistently paid high dividends can result in a HUGE payoff over time; with the peace of mind that even if the stock price isn't appreciating, you will still receive viable cash flow.

Dividend safety.  Of course, you need to make sure that a company will continue to be able to pay its dividend, as not all dividends are to be trusted!  This can be done by reviewing three key factors that may indicate when a dividend is at risk of being cut or eliminated.  It is not necessarily any single rule that will determine a dividend's absolute safety, but these three elements taken together will give you a high level of confidence in the safety of a dividend (or lack thereof):
  • Earnings - Earnings should ideally be at least two times the amount of the dividend payout.  If a company consistently has earnings per share (EPS) that are two times or more than the per share dividend payout, you know that they should have no trouble covering the payout even during troubled times.  Note that certain partnerships such as Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) are required to pay out the majority of their earnings to shareholders every year, and that therefore the "two times rule" will not apply to these holdings.

  • Cash Flow - If the earnings metric doesn't quite work out, a company could get around it by having ample cash flow; higher than its reported income.  But pay attention to where the cash comes from and make sure that it is not coming from delayed debt or early receipts as those are not sustainable sources for funding a dividend over the longer term.

  • Balance Sheet - Be very cautious when a company's balance sheet shows more debt than cash.


I am not a professional, but I have been at this for several years now and I feel that I am getting a better handle on it
with each additional day of experience.  It is not easy, but it is viable, and can even teach you a great deal about
yourself and your own emotional tendencies throughout the process!  By following the advice I've laid out in this guide,
staying involved and focusing on risk management, you can make some serious money in the stock market.

Just remember...

  • Be patient and opportunistic; never attempt to force a trade.

  • Trade the market that is in front of you, not the market that you wish or hope were in front of you!

  • Always define your risk (maximum loss) before opening a new position, and adhere to that discipline.

  • Learn to manage risk through the religious use of position sizing and stop loss management.

  • Learn to differentiate between your longer term positions and your short-term trading positions.

  • Discipline trumps conviction.

  • Hope is NOT a strategy.

  • Don't be afraid to take a loss as soon as your original thesis for a specific trade is proven wrong.

  • Don't be afraid to give your winners room to run, but continually redefine stop loss levels to protect profit.

  • Don't rely on one resource; Gather information and data from multiple sources.

  • Read some books: Jim Cramer's Real Money, John Bollinger's Bollinger on Bollinger Bands


I will use the remainder of this thread to post commentary on some of the stocks I am watching and moves I am making with my own money.  So please follow along and give me some feedback, ask questions, share your ideas.  I welcome any suggestions or concerns you may have about any statements I may make.  Give me your contrary opinions… It is through constructive criticism and subsequent analysis that we can all become better investors.  Also realize that this thread was started years ago, so fast forward to the most recent posts for relevant stock discussion and market analysis.















Original Post:



Happy New Year everyone.  As anyone who has held even a tepid ear to the goings on of the world economy and the US stock market in particular, you know that there is a lot of uncertainty in the air, which has resulted in some wild volatility (up and down movement) in the markets.  Oil is at $100, gold is over $850, domestic residential housing is in the pits, consumer sentiment is down as a direct result of the housing and credit related problems, and banks are struggling to maintain capital as they realize a good lot of their investments are practically worthless (they just can't sell them).

With that in mind, and considering the potential for continued volatility and widespread economic recession (indeed certain sectors such as housing and financials are already in recession), medical related companies are a good place to keep your capital working for you, with limited downside risk even as sales of discretionary retail items may be falling off a cliff. I think we can all relate to the simple fact that people still need their drugs!

Medical stocks are defensive. Therefore, I will present three ideas for the avid investor to consider in 2008 (and a bonus speculative pick for you risk takers).
  • St. Jude Medical (STJ) - Currently Trading @ $40.25 / share

    Develops, manufactures, and distributes cardiovascular medical devices.  The principle products produced are tachycardia implantable  cardioverter defibrillator systems (ICDs) and bradycardia pacemaker systems (pacemakers); mechanical and tissue heart valves and valve repair products; neurostimulation devices; closure devices, guidewires, hemostasis introducers and other interventional cardiology products, and electrophysiology (EP) introducers and catheters, advanced cardiac mapping and navigation systems and ablation systems.



  • Schering-Plough Corp (SGP) - Currently Trading @ $26.70 / share

    A global science-based health care company with prescription, consumer and animal health products.  Schering-Plough has three segments: Prescription Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Health Care and Animal Health. The Prescription Pharmaceuticals segment discovers, develops, manufactures and markets human pharmaceutical products. The Consumer Health Care segment develops, manufactures and markets over-the-counter (OTC), foot care and sun care products. The Animal Health segment discovers, develops, manufactures and markets animal health products. In November 2007, the Company completes acquisition of Organon BioSciences N.V. from Akzo Nobel N.V.  This acquisition should help SGP generate above-average earnings growth over the coming year.



  • CVS Caremark (CVS) - Currently Trading @ $36.50

    Operates in the retail drugstore industry in the United States. As of December 30, 2006, the Company operated 6,202 retail and specialty pharmacy stores in 43 states and the District of Columbia. The Company operates in two segments: Retail Pharmacy and Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM). The Company sells prescription drugs and an assortment of general merchandise, including over-the-counter drugs, beauty products and cosmetics, film and photo finishing services, seasonal merchandise, greeting cards and convenience foods, through its CVS/pharmacy retail stores. The PBM business provides a range of prescription benefit management services to managed care and other organizations. In March 2007, CVS Corporation completed the acquisition of Caremark Rx Inc. The combined company is named CVS/Caremark Corporation.

    This one is special, as numbers came out this morning that have showed lower than expected "same store sales growth" - which is the key metric in evaluating companies that operate retail stores.  It has been particularly hard hit on the news, as soft numbers also came out for Walgreen and Rite Aid... and CVS is down over 7% this afternoon.  The best news here, is the Caremark Pharmacy Benefit Management acquisition, which should set it apart from the other retail drug stores.  As more drugs come off patent and generic equivalents are made available, CVS Caremark will make higher profits on the sales of those generics than they would have made for the name brand drugs.  Here is the research that caught my attention:
    "Despite a slow start to the flu season, [CVS] will very likely see strong
    demand on the retail side in this area over the next couple of months.  More
    and more prescriptions are also moving over to generic alternatives, which
    carry higher margins for CVS.  Finally, slower retail sales will not affect
    the secular growth of the company's pharmacy benefits management arm,
    Caremark.  And rather than paying 25 times expected 2008 earnings for
    similar businesses like Express Scripts (ESRX) and Medco Health (MHS), we
    can get the same business embedded in CVS Caremark at 16 times next year's
    expected profits."


For those interested in taking on a lot more risk (with potentially fantastic reward), I would look into First Solar (FSLR).  This is I believe the only company that builds solar modules without the use of silicon, and therefore is not at the mercy of the commodity price for silicon wafers.  Additionally, it has great visibility in terms of future contracts, and a lot of room to grow on top of what it has already booked in its backlog (secured future contracts).  If FSLR drops back to $250 (currently trading at $267.50), I'll initiate a position of 25% of what I intend to ultimately invest in the name, with a time horizon of 1 - 3 years.  Given its astronomical run over the last year, I would start picking away at it slowly, hoping that it comes down even more so that you can get a better price.




Disclosures:
Initiated a 30% position in shares of SGP last month at $26.71.
Initiated a 50% position in shares of STJ for my Roth IRA retirement account last week at $40.65.
Initiated a 50% position in shares of CVS today at $36.50.




Here's hoping 2008 will be a profitable year for you and yours! :beer:


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


Edited by geokills (03/09/11 11:06 AM)


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: Baeosistine] * 1
    #7827421 - 01/03/08 01:14 PM (16 years, 28 days ago)

As the magical man Jim Cramer would say: Tips are for Waiters!

Ironic, as that's pretty much what I'm giving you all. But what I'm really doing here is attempting to document or journal my own personal investments, so that I can review the decisions I've made over time, and see if my thesis is proven true, or where I went wrong. Everyone should invest for themselves and only after having done their own due diligence and research. If someone is giving you a "stock tip", it's probably not any good and here's why. Either the person already owns the stock and is trying to convince others to buy or sell in order to move the stock to their benefit, or if the tip is actually a legitimate one, it is probably based on insider information which if you trade on it, can land you heavy fines and lots of trouble with the SEC. Therefore, save the tips for the waiters!

I'm making this thread (and any subsequent ones) for my own personal evaluation, and hopefully to get some other people directly involved with their finances and interested in investing (as one thing's for sure, investing is a key factor to most fortunes made today). Don't just go and buy something because someone tells you to. Listen to their ideas, but do your own fact checking and research. Most of all, do what makes you feel most comfortable, and only invest in what you can personally understand.

On that note, Geron (GERN) is incredibly speculative (i.e. risky). I personally wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole. The company has no earnings, has been hit or miss on its earnings/loss estimates in the past, and the future estimates are for increasing losses! It hasn't done much for four years and is currently trading at its 52-week low. While it is true, that should some miraculous turnaround occur and this company suddenly becomes profitable it will make you rich... it is a general rule of thumb that I refuse to invest in companies that are not currently turning a profit. On the upside, it looks like Geron is paying down its debt quite substantially, while increasing its cash and short term investments. This is a very positive sign, but this one still carries more risk than I'm willing to accept.


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Edited by geokills (01/03/08 01:21 PM)


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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: Cowgold] * 1
    #7827514 - 01/03/08 01:37 PM (16 years, 28 days ago)

I was a Chesapeake (CHK) holder a couple of years ago when it was trading around $34 / share (and when I was very new to investing). It was hoped that natural gas prices would be on the rise, but at that specific moment in time I was stuck with a flat-liner for a few months. New to investing and lacking the disciplines I've developed over time, I cut that one off and in all honestly, believe it was the right decision at the time.

Given the current environment, I agree that natural gas stocks are coming into greater favor, and your thesis about investing in domestic energy appears to be a sound one. XTO is a stock I have watched for quite a while, it has been growing its natural gas production and is only partially hedged, meaning that it will benefit by a large margin compared to its competitors, should natural gas prices remain strong and increase. The reason I haven't bought any myself, is that I already hold a full investment in the oil/energy sector by way of Transocean (RIG).

Personally, I feel that Transocean is best situated to benefit from higher oil prices and here's why. Oil is becoming harder and harder to find, its use in today's world seems to have no end in sight, and this is of course resulting in rapid price increases for the commodity. Now that oil is so much more profitable for the companies which produce it, they can re-invest that money to seek out harder-to-find resources, particularly in the deepwater offshore regions. This is where Transocean comes in. It is the largest deepwater driller, and as rigs are not easy nor quick to be built, it will hold its strong position in the deepwater markets for quite some time. As oil prices go up and more companies need to tap deeper wells in order to secure solid production, the day-rates (rental rates) for its rigs increase as well. The icing on the cake is that Transocean just merged last year with Global SantaFe, one of its largest competitors. This has the combined company well poised to take advantage of continuing higher oil prices. They also have great visibility, with a backlog (secured contracts) that are booked for many years out.


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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: SneezingPenis] * 1
    #7827524 - 01/03/08 01:40 PM (16 years, 28 days ago)

Quote:

YawningAnus said:

I am wary of all this push for gold.



I don't see anyone pushing gold in this thread... though I do agree, that you should have at least part of your assets invested in gold, a gold ETF, or a gold mining company as a hedge against a weakening dollar. It may not make you rich, but it is a form of insurance in the event of the worst case scenario. Do you stop paying your car insurance just because you haven't had an accident in years and therefore your insurance investment hasn't paid off? Probably not. You want it to be there when the shit hits the fan!


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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: OneMoreRobot3021] * 1
    #7827526 - 01/03/08 01:40 PM (16 years, 28 days ago)

I refuse to invest in your movie making conspiracies! :toomuchacid:


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Re: Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: MrBump] * 1
    #7828948 - 01/03/08 07:04 PM (16 years, 28 days ago)

Heh, I'm not tryin' to pump and dump my stocks.. the Shroomery wouldn't have the weight for that anyway.
On the contrary, I gave full disclosure at the end of my original post as follows:

Quote:

geokills said:

Disclosures:
Initiated a 30% position in shares of SGP last month at $26.71.
Initiated a 50% position in shares of STJ for my Roth IRA retirement account last week at $40.65.
Initiated a 50% position in shares of CVS today at $36.50.





To clarify, when I say that I have initiated a 30% or 50% position, that doesn't mean that 50% of everything I have is in that particular stock. What I mean is, if I intend to invest $4,000 in a given name, a 50% position would mean that thus far, I have put $2,000 into it, and am hoping that it drops lower so that I can cost average down on the remaining $2,000 that I intend to invest into that particular name.


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Re: Update for January 7th, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS, FSLR [Re: geokills] * 1
    #7844104 - 01/07/08 03:30 PM (16 years, 24 days ago)

Just wanted to post an update here.  In aggregate, I've lost about 8% of the value of my portfolio over the last week (which equates to about 35% of what I had made during the entire year 2007!).  Needless to say, the market can be a frustrating if not downright frightening experience.  The only way to beat it, is to stick to your disciplines and do everything you can to minimize loss by cutting off losers. 

With the continuing credit and housing troubles in the face of rising unemployment, less job creation, declining GDP (gross domestic product - a measure of how much the US economy is producing), and a Federal Reserve that seems to say the wrong thing at every opportunity; the market is no doubt going to continue to be a rough ride for the short to medium term future.  However, with a long term outlook, there is a lot of value out there... it's just probably not going to pay off until at least the later half of 2008.

Although the market has been absolutely terrible (S&P & Dow down 4% and the Nasdaq down 6% year to date),
the three healthcare related stocks I suggested are holding up quite well, all of them outperforming the overall market.

  • St. Jude Medical (STJ) - Currently trading @ $40.71 / share

    Has gained about 1% in value since mentioning it last week.  There were opportunities to buy in all the way down to $30.11 last week, but the big medical conference today brought the stock surging back above my cost basis with a 4.5% gain today alone.



  • Schering Plough (SGP) - Currently Trading at $25.83 / share

    Down about 3% from where I mentioned it last week.  The overall market has just been relentless in pulling down both the crap as well as the high quality names.  Recession fears are paramount right now, and with the Fed slow to act, the market is pricing in the realistic possibility of a full blown recession.  This is still an attractive name as it is well off its highs and should meet or exceed its earnings estimates for the coming quarters.  If the market turns around and starts to run higher, this name could see $30 later on in the year.



  • CVS Caremark (CVS) - Currently Trading at $38.20 / share

    Bucking the market trend by rising 4.7% since I suggested it.  As suspected, this stock was unjustly punished when the drug store stocks (Rite-Aid and Walgreens included) reported disappointing same-store sales.  Today, CVS management confirmed that the front-store, or non-pharmacy business only accounts for 15% of their operating profit, and only 3% of the company's profit comes from front-store discretionary items.  As noted, the reason to buy CVS is its Pharmacy Benefit Management arm (Caremark) that it acquired last year.  Based on the PBM business, CVS is trading at a steep discount to competitors such as Medco Health Services (MHS); all of whom should benefit handily from the surge of drugs that are coming off-patent, and will be able to be purchased as generics, which offers significantly higher profit margins to CVS Caremark since they will not discount the drugs to their customers in the same manner as they are receiving on the supply side.



  • First Solar (FSLR) - Currently Trading at $236.51 / share

    As I suggested in the original post, I said I would start picking away at this name below $250.  I have made two purchases, one at $249.95, and another today at $233 / share.  This is looking to be a pretty good entry point to start building your position if you are interested as the stock is now over 16% off of its highs.  Of course, if oil continues to decline from its recent highs, First Solar may have some more to fall since it does trade similarly to oil (as it is an alternative energy play based on the rising expense of traditional fossil fuel based energy).  This is why it's good to buy incrementally over time, so that you can take advantage of dips when they occur, rather than buying all at once.


As closing thoughts, I've been very torn this last week trying to decide whether or not to put more cash to work buying stocks that appear to have been taken too low, or to raise more cash by selling stock in case the market starts to slide even steeper.  At this point, there's no real telling what will happen - and if there's one thing that spooks the market, it is uncertainty.  I am however, stickin' to my guns and have added to positions over the last few days - a gutsy move, but as I'm 25 years old and presumably have a lot of life ahead of me, I feel comfortable enough taking this risk.

It's just very damn difficult right now and it won't be easy to make a quick buck short term - so if you're looking to participate, please be cautious, maintain a long-term outlook, and stay away from banks, housing, and retail completely.  Sectors to consider would include agriculture, oil, healthcare, and defence.  Technology has been hit mercilessly this last week, with the Nasdaq down seven straight days in a row (losing almost 9% of its value!).  This may be a good time to pick up some Apple or Google, which have fallen some 12.5% and 13.1% off their highs, respectively.  Particularly with Apple's MacWorld conference coming up in mid January, there may be a short term catalyst for Apple shares to regain value.

Good luck, and be careful.  It's really brutal out there right now... :crazy:


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Revisiting Stock Picks for January 3rd, 2008 - STJ, SGP, CVS [Re: geokills] * 1
    #7956740 - 01/30/08 05:28 PM (16 years, 1 day ago)

I greatly apologize for not having updated this thread over the past few turbulent weeks.

It won't matter to anyone who took my advice, but as soon as Schering Plough (SGP) and Merck released disappointing detailes of their "ENHANCE" study on the drug Vytorin, I sold my SGP at $25.91 / share - roughly 3% below where I recommended it in this thread. It was a good thing that I did, as it hit a low of $17.45 last week. The very same day that it hit its low, I picked up twice the amount of shares I had originally purchased, at a price of $18.50, and have made a quick 4.65% on that investment. At this price, the market has essentially priced in the idea that Vytorin will no longer be on the market in a year. That is very unlikely however, as the ENHANCE study was a small study, and all it showed was that Vytorin (a combination drug) was no more effective in one area than one of its component drugs by itself. This will not cause the drug to be pulled off the market, as there is no liability, and doctors will still perscribe it to people for which other cholesterol lowering treatments have failed.

While I plan to hold SGP and think it will see $20 in the coming months, I do not feel nearly as confident about the name, and am only involved because I happened to be at my computer on the 25th of January, when a relatively benign news story was aired that caused a panic in shares of SGP, triggering my decision to get back into the stock, as if there's one thing I've learned, it's that the easiest money is made off of other people's knee-jerk reactions.

I have also sold out of my CVS Caremark position at $36.40 / share, nearly the exact same price I had originally suggested it ($36.50). I took this action on the news that Walmart is entering the Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) business. Quite frankly, once Walmart enters a business, regardless of how sucessfull they are with it, they permanently change the landscape for other businesses that operate in that sector. Therefore, with CVS Caremark's PBM catalyst diminished, and their retail operation unexciting, I would no longer recommend this name.

St Jude Medical I am still holding, it reported a great quarter but the overall market has been exceptionally tough. It is holding up, down 1% from where I suggested it. I would still consider investing in this name for the long term, with the belief that it should be able to grab an easy 10% move, at which point I will unload half my position and look towards an additional 10% move, up to the high $40's per share.

First Solar, I dumped a while ago with a loss at $210. Given the strength of the market downturn earlier in the month, all high multiple, high dollar stocks were getting trampled and I didn't see FSLR recovering anytime soon. I still haven't gone back in, but if the stock touches $150/share, you can be sure that I will be buying. It is currently at around $175/share.

So there you have it, unfortunately I made this stock picking thread at a time when the market was about to fall off a cliff, and so all of my picks have suffered (some more than others). That's why I'm going to advocate some new pick's based on the current environment, and will hopefully do a much better job of keeping you appraised of their outlook, ongoing.


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Stock Picks for January 30th, 2008 - NLY, T, MO, MCD [Re: geokills] * 1
    #7956747 - 01/30/08 05:28 PM (16 years, 1 day ago)

On that note, the Federal Reserve bank of the United States has lowered our core interest rate by 1.25% over the last two weeks. This is a huge move, making cash a considerably less desireable investment, since yields on bonds and CD's are coming down fast. This should propel cash into stocks, particularly stocks with high dividend yields (considering the added bonus that dividends are taxed less than bond yields), and so I would currently suggest the following:


  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - Currently trading @ $19.58 / share

    Troubled banks have had to unload huge bundles of investments in order to rebuild capital, thanks to their poor decisions to pick up various mortgage backed securities that have turned out to essentially be worthless. In this panic, their bundles include some quality paper amongst all the crap. Annaly Capital Management has a lot of cash on hand, and can therefore sift through these investments to pick up only the quality. In other words, they are very well positioned to benefit from the fallout affecting the large banks, and on top of that, their stock yields 7%! I have been building a position in this name for the past couple of weeks and will buy a lot more if the stock dips back below $19 / share.


  • AT&T (T) - Currently Trading @ $37.35

    You all know AT&T. What you might not know is that their stock was unfairly punished earlier this month when the CEO came out and noted some cancellations in their old line consumer telephone business. This was not new news, and during the same conversation the CEO noted that they should have no trouble meeting estimates with great wireless growth. Exascerbating the negative tone of the market, Sprint/Nextel announced that they had lost 100,000 subscribers and blamed it on overall sector weekness. They should have blamed it on their own inferiority, as AT&T did in fact end up reporting a good quarter, with over 2 million new wireless subscribers. This is a name I have been in for over a year. They will be boosting their dividend soon, which already yields a handsome 4.25%, and if their stock falls below $35 / share, I will significantly increase my investment. If you don't like AT&T, Verizon Wireless (VZ) is also a good buy at current levels, yielding about 4.45% and taking equal share alongside AT&T.


  • Altria (MO) - Currently Trading @ $76.50

    Altria aka Phillip Morris aka Marlboro and up until the spinoff last year, also Kraft foods. These are products people will buy regardless of economic outlook. Plans to break up the Phillip Morris (tobacco) division of the company into an international and domestic division will be announced this year, which will unlock a lot of value. Furthermore, they own a huge stake in SAB Miller (brewer who last year merged with Molson Coors), which is worth a bundle of cash, giving them lots of flexibility to acquire or return value to shareholders by way of dividend increases and share buybacks. As long as the yield on this stock is above 4%, I would recommend buying it before they detail their breakup plans.


  • McDonalds (MCD) - Currently Trading @ $51 / share

    Huge international casual foods company. Though domestic sales haven't been exceptional, the focus on this company is its huge international exposure and growth in those markets. Though it has recently committed to rolling out a premium coffee service to compete with the likes of Starbucks, which does add additional risk to its future outlook, they truly are on fire overseas and international same-store sales growth has been consistently rising over the past many quarters. With a 3% annual dividend yeild, this is worth the wait to hold on for the long term.


My apologies if I left anyone hanging on the SGP and CVS trades... my bad! I was so busy rheeling from all the turmoil in the markets, trying to get my own head (and portfolio) straightened out, I neglected to contribute publicly in this thread. I'll try not to let that happen again.



Disclosures: I currently own (am long) NLY, T, MO, MCD, SGP, & STJ


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Update for February 16, 2008 - NLY, T, MO, MCD, STJ, SGP, JNY, CVS, FSLR [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8031441 - 02/16/08 03:13 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

Updates:

Have shifted around some of my positions recently, having cut back severely in the technology sector, to move into "early cycle" names as well as high dividend yielding stocks. Early cycle names are those that will benefit from an environment in which the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. These include retail, financials, and housing, though most of these sectors are still on shaky ground so please be very cautious and build your positions slowly over time!

My focus on dividend yielding stocks is due to the fact that lower interest rates make cash investments (such as CD's and Bonds) much less desireable since they will yield less, and are taxed at a higher rate than dividend yield distributions from stocks. If you pick them right, the stocks will carry great upside potential in addition to their safe dividend yields. As a stock price falls, the dividend yield will rise, thereby providing somewhat of a cushion - limiting your downside - and in this very tough market environment, limiting downside is more important than ever.


  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - Currently Trading at $20.40

    We've had a nice move up over the last couple of weeks. With the stock still yielding close to a 7% annual dividend, I have added to my position in recent weeks, and will look to add more if the price falls back to my basis around $19.40/share. With the Fed likely to continue cutting rates, this company is exceptionally well positioned to continue rising up to the mid $20's.



  • AT&T (T) - Currently Trading at $37.88

    Up and down, with the uncertainty in the economy and the fact that this one is a slow mover to begin with, it's not surprising that it hasn't done much. Still, this is meant to be a long-term holding, and not for the quick cash. With a 4% annual dividend yield and a strong growing wireless business, it's worth holding on to.



  • Altria (MO) - Currently Trading at $72.53

    Getting very close to the breakup into Phillip Morris International & Phillip Morris Domestic next month. Was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average last week, which was expected due to the breakup, and should not have a material affect on the stock's value since most market weighted funds are aimed at mirroring the S&P 500 and not the DJIA. It has fallen down to around $72 - 73 / share recently, which offers an excellent entry point. I have been adding to my position at these levels with the belief that interest in the stock will heat up as we draw nearer to the actual breakup of the company. Yielding over 4% annually.



  • McDonalds (MCD) - Currently trading at $55.30

    When I recommended this on the 30th of January, you should have been buying. I'm only sad I didn't buy more! The stock got hit hard for a widely expected poor December domestic same-store sales comparison from the year ago period. Given the poor market environment, the stock was hit twice as hard as it should have been and has now recovered back up to around $55. With strong international growth, the relatively soft domestic sales shouldn't be a big issue and in fact have already recovered in January. Yielding close to 3% annually, I would be a buyer on weakness.



  • Schering-Plough (SGP) - Currently Trading at $21.85

    As I noted in my post on the 30th of January, I ended up selling out of this stock as soon as the the ENHANCE study on their cholesterol-lowering Vytorin drug went public, showing that it was not necessarily anymore effective than already available treatments in a specific target market of exceptionally high-cholesterol patients. This study was small however, and Vytorin is not harmful so it should remain on the market.. Therefore, after the panic really set in and the stock fell down to $18.50, I bought a few hundred shares (it fell down to $17.50 later that same day but I had moved away from my desk). Having subsequently reported a dynamite quarter, spurred in large part by their Organon Biosciences acquisition last year, the stock has rocketed back rather nicely. I have since sold 1/3 of my position at $21, and another 1/3 at $22, booking an average 16.2% gain in only a couple of weeks! Given that SGP is one of the only pharmaceutical companies that will maintain patent protection on most of its key drugs over the next several years, it is well positioned for the long-term. The Vytorin news will still keep a lid on it unfortunately, but I will look to buy back the share that I sold if the stock falls back to $20.



  • St. Jude Medical (STJ) - Currently Trading at $43.11

    Another stock that has been showing us nice gains, up some 6% from where I first recommended it here. The company is strong and has reported a good quarter, but as Schering-Plough reported a great quarter and offers a dividend whereas St. Jude does not, I would rather move these funds into SGP. I will look to sell half of my position should the stock reach $45, and am ultimately seeking a target of around $48.



  • Jones Apparel Group (JNY) - Currently Trading at $15.28

    Just started a position in this name on Thursday. It reported a better than expected quarter which resulted in an 11% gain on Wednesday last week. To my delight, Liz Claiborne (LIZ) reported a terrible quarter which caused their stock to fall over 18% on Thursday. Since JNY and LIZ are in the same sector, the bad news from LIZ outshined the good news from JNY the day prior, and resulted in JNY giving up all the gains from its good quarter. With retail poised for gains over the next 12 - 18 months thanks to the Federal Reserve's direction in continuing to lower interest rates, this made for a totally awesome entry point in a name that reported a great quarter, bbut got outshined by overal retail sector weakness. With a better than 3.6% annual dividend yield, this stock should trade back up to $20 by year's end. I would like to buy even more of this name, and will do just that if it falls below $15.



  • CVS Caremark (CVS) - Currently trading at $39.72

    As I had noted previously, I sold out of this position as soon as the news broke that Walmart will be entering the Pharmacy Benefit Management business, which should create a lot of competition for CVS. I did however make a fairly significant mistake here, and that mistake was selling all at once. Discipline warrants that one should almost always scale into and out of positions slowly over time. Having sold all at once, I missed the boat when CVS benefitted from a good quarter as well as a general resurgence in the retail sector, on account of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, and the fact that as soon as the Fed starts to significantly cut rates, this triggers major investment managers to start moving money into retail and financial stocks since they will ultimately benefit from these actions.



  • First Solar (FSLR) - Currently Trading at $219.39

    I've been rather finicky about this name. With such a high multiple, it has definitely been what is known as a "momentum growth" stock. Given the tough market environment, high multiple growth stocks have been getting killed and the risk was just too great for me to stick with this one. I was eyeing it as it fell down below $175/share (I had originally gotten involved with it at $250!). Long story short, I missed a fantastic quarter that has only confirmed this company's dominant position in the solar power sector, which had the stock rise almost 30% overnight. I still like the name, but am still hesitant given the tough market environment for high multiple momentum growth stocks. However, if it falls back to $200, I will seriously consider getting involved.




Disclosures: I currently own (am long) NLY, T, MO, MCD, JNY, SGP, & STJ.


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Re: Update for February 16, 2008 - NLY, T, MO, MCD, STJ, SGP, CVS, FSLR [Re: Redstorm] * 1
    #8031578 - 02/16/08 03:52 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

To note, one of the major reasons HLX is probably down of late, is due to the unexpected departure of CEO Martin Ferron earlier this month. As a general rule of thumb, it is wise to be cautious when upper level management up and leaves for unknown reasons. Fortunately, they have placed Owen Kratz as the new CEO, who was actually the CEO before, between April '97 - October '06. Given two recent upside quarterly earnings surprises as well as a low valuation, you may indeed have a beaten down stock that could recover quite nicely.

For me personally, I am currently long (though I have scaled back in recent months) Transocean (RIG), a deepwater driller with the largest most capable fleet of deepwater drilling rigs worldwide. I had cut back on my position every so slightly on account of the belief that oil prices may mellow out in the short-term, what with all the worries of reduced production and recession abound. The long-term thesis on oil still holds very true however, and so I am looking to buy back the RIG shares I sold, should the stock trade towards $115 in the near term (currently at $129).


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Re: Update for February 16, 2008 - NLY, T, MO, MCD, STJ, SGP, CVS, FSLR [Re: Liquidkick] * 1
    #8044162 - 02/19/08 06:56 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

With respect to bailing on PBR, that doesn't indicate your ability to pick losers. PBR is an excellent company, one of the few major oil companies in the world that can actually maintain and grow its proven oil reserves, and it should profit handsomely over the many years to come thanks to a huge oil reserve they've found off the coast of Brazil late last year. The problem therefore was not with your ability to pick a stock, but with your inability to cope with short-term (and what would have been unrealized) losses.

This is the most difficult part of investing in the stock market, for me, and I'm sure for many others. It is too easy to let our emotions get the best of us, and as a result be shaken out of quality stocks just because of short-term down trends in the market. Oddly enough as I can recognize this, but I still haven't perfected the ability to shield myself from this innate human tendancy. I am getting better though, which is precisely why short-term trading is for the birds.

If you get lucky and gain a few quick points in a new position, great - book some profits! But if your stock goes down, don't immediately bail thinking it's the end of the world. More likely (if you have done your research), this is an opportunity! The stock you liked before has been put on sale, and you should be thankful that you can average down, lowering your cost basis for the gains that are to come in the future. A long term outlook is integral to the strategy I've been developing over the past three years, just as it is incredibly important not to buy or sell all at once.

You should start a position with the belief that your stock will go down. It seems counterintuitive, but no one is perfect and no one can pick the absolute bottoms in a stock's price. Therefore, if you initiate your positions with the belief that your stock will drop below that price, it will force you to buy in small increments. Then if your stock does take a hit (provided it is not because of a fundamental business problem but because of general sector or market-wide sentiment), use that opportunity as a gift to add to your position, lowering your cost basis, and thereby increase your future gains.

It's tough, and it will take time to learn how to keep your emotional reactions in check - but I believe it is the only way that you're going to be able to consistently make good money in the stock market. Buying all at once and focusing on the short term is for the birds! You may get lucky sometimes, but you'll end up driving yourself crazy when the market isn't in a strong uptrend.


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Update for February 19, 2008 - JNY, HCBK, SGP [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8044247 - 02/19/08 07:14 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

Also as a quick update to the stocks I've been covering here:

Oil closed over $100 a barrel for the first time today - it's crossed over $100 twice prior, but failed to close the day above this psychological benchmark. As a result, this is spurring inflation fears and making the scenario for continued federal bank interest rate cuts increasingly uncertain. The CPI (consumer price index) will come out tomorrow, and if it comes in on the high end, this will further lower expectations for future rate cuts, which will hurt bank and retail stocks, just as they were hurt today.

On that note, I have sold off my remaining position in Schering-Plough (SGP) for a 19% gain. This isn't because I think SGP will be going down, but it's because with all the negative news that will accompany a potentially high CPI number tomorrow, in conjunction with oil's breakneck rally today, I want to build my cash position in order to take advantage of further declines in two names that will likely get hit (as follows). My current cash position is 30.1% of the portfolio.


  • Jones Apparel Group (JNY) - Currently trading at $14.37

    Which I recommended in my post on the 16th, closed today down almost 6%. I used today's sharp fall to make two small purchases at $14.64 and $14.25. If it nears $13.50, I will be buying even more. Remember that this company reported a quarter last week that was above expectations, gained a quick 7%, but then due to bad news from other retailers and overall negative retail market sentiment, has since dropped almost 18% from its high of around $17.50 after reporting its great quarter. This stock features a handsome 3.9% dividend yield at the current price of $14.37, and so I believe it is an attractive investment worth holding onto while the market works out its troubles over the next 8 - 12 months or so. I would not be surprised to see this stock make its way back up to $20 over that time period. Look for a drop tomorrow if the CPI number comes in hot, and use that as an opportunity to buy.


  • Hudson City Bank (HCBK) - Currently trading at $15.34

    I haven't recommended this name here I don't believe, as financials are generally a very tough place to be right now and I don't think most investors will want to chance it. However, Hudson City caters to well-off people in the New York area and offers very stringent lending practices. It makes most of its money through its deposit base and mortgages, which should throw up a red flag. But believe it or not, this company wrote-off next to no bad loans over the last quarter, they simply don't lend to at risk people! They carry a 2.3% dividend yield, and while it is true that they won't be in for much of a gain should the fed start worrying about inflation and thereby cease lowering rates, I don't feel that we're in for any rate increases in the near term and Hudson City's business is smart and strong enough that it is the only financial (with the possible exception of Goldman Sachs) that I would be comfortable owning in the current environment. I added to my position today when the stock fell some 2%, and if the stock falls below $15, I will be buying more.


Disclosure: I own (am long) JNY & HCBK


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Update for February 20, 2008 - JNY, T [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8046454 - 02/20/08 09:24 AM (15 years, 11 months ago)

Quick update:
  • Jones Apparel Group (JNY) - Currently Trading at $14.99

    After having picked up a couple hundred shares yesterday with the stock down as low as $14.25, I sold 200 shares this morning as the stock has rallied some 4.25% from yesterday's close. I am still maintaining a large position, but with the market as dicey as it is, it is important to book profits when you have them, slowly selling on the way up and slowly buying on the way down.


  • AT&T (T) - Currently Trading at $33.01

    News that the major telecom stocks (AT&T, Verizon, & Deutche Telecom) have introduced flat rate wireless calling plans has sparked fears of a price war. This has punished the stocks severely today, presenting what I believe to be a good buying opportunity. With both AT&T & Verizon's stock trading at their 52-week lows this morning, and yielding around 5%, either one should be in for a quick bounce. I have stepped in and added to my AT&T position. To note, Verizon may be the better long-term play here, as its FiOS television offering is receiving positive reviews (better than cable), and AT&T's U-verse TV system is rather lackluster and has had trouble rolling out as quickly and effectively as hoped. As I have already been involved with AT&T, I am averaging down right now to catch a quick bounce. Once the stock has traded back up toward $34 - $35, I will start cutting my position, and may look to swap into Verizon.


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Re: Update for February 20, 2008 - JNY, T [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8046756 - 02/20/08 11:04 AM (15 years, 11 months ago)

Well the bounce in AT&T was admittedly quicker than expected! In the last hour and a half of trading the stock is up $1.25 a share, or better than 3.7% from where I recommended you step in and buy in the above post. I will not be selling my shares quite yet however, as I believe that the stock will climb back up to $35 in the near future. With the nearly 5% dividend yield I locked in at the low share price, I feel that it is worth waiting around for.

This is another prime example of why it is so important to keep cash on the sidelines, to put to use when the market over-reacts. Capitalizing on another's knee-jerk panic reaction is where the biggest money is made! The two largest mistakes I made when I started investing was buying/selling a stock all in one chunk, and keeping myself fully invested with no cash on the side to take advantage of the inevitable drops in share price. When you keep all your money in play and have no cash left, you are essentially taking the very arrogant stance of saying that you know your stocks can not possibly go any lower than they are right now -- and that's just not being realistic or smart.


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Update for February 20, 2008 - T, RIG, PBR [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8047257 - 02/20/08 01:12 PM (15 years, 11 months ago)

  • AT&T (T) - Currently Trading at $34.90

    I surely didn't expect this stock to recover this quickly, but with the stock trading some 5.7% higher than where I recommended it this morning, I will now sell the 100 shares I picked up this morning. I know I've stated that I'm not a short-term trader, but sometimes short-term opportunities do present themselves in the midst of your long-term thesis and it would be silly not to capitalize on them - especially when the market is as unpredictable as it has been over the past few months. I still hold a large position in AT&T for it's strong dividend yield and stable prospects in the wireless industiry. However, I am going to sell the 100 shares I purchased this morning in order to free up more cash in case future buying opportunities should present themselves. The fact that I own AT&T in both my discretionary as well as my retirement portfolio, means that I am heavily overweighted this stock. Though I believe AT&T will continue to rise over the long-term, this sale will help me build cash and lower my risk profile in case there really is a lasting price war between the wireless carriers.



  • Transocean (RIG) - Currently trading at $137.90

    Transocean reported a good quarter this morning, the stock up almost 6.4% on the heels of its positive report as well as oil's continued persistence above the $100 a barrel mark. I would like to build up a larger position in the oil sector, and though I am not taking any action at this time, I intend to add to my Transocean (RIG) position on any weakness, and perhaps start a new position in Petrobras (PBR) should it fall back below $110 a share. My eye towards the oil patch is another factor that is motivating me to build up my cash position from the short-term gains I've achieved in other stocks. The sales made today put my cash position at just over 38% of my portfolio.


Disclosure: I am presently long AAPL, HCBK, JNY, MCD, MO, NLY, PG, RIG, T, & STJ.


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Stock Update for March 1, 2008 - MOS, DE, NLY, JNY [Re: Cowgold] * 1
    #8091080 - 03/01/08 06:43 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Congratulations Cowgold! Energy and agriculture are about the only two sectors that seem to be working right now. XTO Energy is definitely a great company, but their stock has gone parabolic lately, so if you're not already in, I would wait for the inevitable pullback before putting money to work in that name. Nevertheless, they are doing a great job at increasing their reserves and natural gas prices seem to be well positioned for a continued rise given crude oil's sustained high price and the fact that natural gas simply hasn't kept pace with crude.

Given the market's 2.5% slide yesterday, leaving the month of February with a loss, and the S&P 500 index down 9.4% so far this year, it looks like we're in the face of another volatile week in the market. The February jobs number which comes out on Friday will be important, as January's jobs number signaled contraction for the first time in four years, which has left people more convinced than ever that the economy has entered a recession. The Federal Reserve chairman testified to Congress last week, signaling that they plan to continue lowering rates in the near future but that some banks may still fail.

On the slip Friday, I decided to put some of my nearly 40% cash position to work by slowly picking away at two names in the agricultural complex.



  • Mosaic (MOS) - Currently Trading @ $111.30 / share

    On the heels of a 336% gain in 2007, one might think these guys are tapped out. And though this stock does carry a fairly high PE of 52, their earnings growth has been absolutely astounding and should be able to support it (874% over the trailing twelve months versus an industry average of around 250% over the same period). These guys produce chemicals used primarily for fertilizer in the agricultural industry (phosphate, potash, and nitrogen). The vast majority of their mines and plants are located in North America, though they sell much of their product internationally. Given that we are in the midst of a worldwide food shortage with little short term solution in sight, agricultural industries will continue to need increasingly more fertilizer to increase crop productivity as time progresses. This company should continue to be able to provide strong earnings growth over the coming many years, but realize that it has had a strong run. I would look for the stock to come down below $110 this coming week, and would advocate beginning to build a position at that point. I am looking to add to my small new position in this name next week should the stock fall closer to $100 a share.


  • John Deere & Co (DE) - Currently Trading @ $85.21 / share

    Another agricultural name, though this one having to do with the machinery and infrastructure necessary to farm. Deere may be the best manufacturer in the US, period, and being tied into the food industry (which is on fire) is just the icing on the cake. Up nearly 100% in 2007, these guys have beaten nearly every earnings estimate for the past 10 quarters (the past 6 quarters straight). There is some concern of sustainability, given the past history of agriculture's "boom and bust" cyclicality - they are not impervious to the volatile price of grain. Deere is a major beneficiary of the need to produce more food for the world population, and also getting helped by the attention to alternative energy, namely ethanol fuel which requires farming for corn in the US and sugar cane in Brazil. With people in the world population making more money, they want to improve their diets - often by eating more meat - and meat requires a whole lot of grain feed to produce, thereby fueling the need to produce ever larger crop output and keeping grain prices on the rise. They also have lower production costs than most other manufacturers. I like it right here, and will add to my position should the stock fall closer to $80.


  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - Currently Trading @ $20.69 / share

    I've been building this position for a couple of months now. The stock appears to have stabilized here between $20 - $21, but given it's exceptional yield of $1.36/share (currently 6.57%), and the fact that the federal reserve has committed to continue lowering interest rates, these guys are still positioned very well to take advantage of the lower interest rate environment. To get technical, this company is focused on generating net income for distribution to the stockholders from the spread between the interest income on their investment securities and the cost of borrowings to finance the acquisition of investment securities. That spread is improving for them at an exceptional pace, and the incredible dividend yield alone is attracting more investors as interest rates fall! Though I have a sizeable position in this name already, I am looking to add even more to it below $20.50 a share, before the federal reserve implements their next rate cut. To note, this stock behaved exceptionally well on Friday, down only half a percent while the aggregate market was down 2.5%. For the duration of the Fed's bias towards lowering interest rates, this is probably the single best levered stock to buy.


  • Jones Apparel Group (JNY) - Currently trading @ $14.11 / share

    This one took it on the chin at the end of the week, losing 8.6% of its value between Thursday morning and Friday evening. With its 56 cent per share dividend again closing in on a 4% annual yield, those with a stronger stomach and some appetite for risk may want to consider getting in here. I am glad that I sold some of this name as the stock reached $15, and will look to add those shares back to my position should the stock fall below $14. Retail is generally not a good place to be in a slowing economy, but a lot of retail stocks have been reporting so-so numbers on the earnings front and holding up remarkably well. This seems to signal that the big money is trying to set itself up for an early-cycle play as ultimately retail will rebound. Given the 4% yield, I am willing to spend some time waiting for this one.


This will probably be a tough week. Remember, if and when the panic reaches a feverish intensity will likely be the best time to put your money to work and step in to buy. It can be frightening, but the best investors often take a contrarian approach. With a high level of panic and an incredible amount of selling pressure, ultimately this means that the downside risk is being worked into the market and eventually the sellers will dry up and the bargain/value players will come back in. Be brave, be smart, and always remember to keep some cash on the sidelines to put to work if and when the market drops further!

Other stocks I would like to purchase on weakness: McDonalds (MCD) & Petrobras Brasileiro (PBR).


My Discretionary Portfolio as of 3/1/2008:

30% CASH
11% Altria (MO)
7.1% Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
7% AT&T (T)
7% McDonalds (MCD)
6.7% Jones Apparel Group (JNY)
6.6% Proctor & Gamble (PG)
6.4% Hudson City Bank Corp (HCBK)
6% Transocean (RIG)
4% Deere & Co (DE)
4% Mosaic (MOS)
3.9% Apple (APPL)


I am also long St. Jude Medical (STJ) in my Retirement Portfolio


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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2008 - NLY, JNY [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8110326 - 03/06/08 09:59 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Well, I got absolutely crushed this morning.  :sad:

  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - Currently Trading at $15.40

    No direct news out of Annaly this morning, but there was news on a similar company - Carlyle Capital.  Carlyle has failed to meet margin calls for their investments in mortgage-backed securities.  Annaly is also a highly leveraged company, using short-term loans to finance their investing.  Though the near-term interest rate cuts will still help this stock, and it seems Annaly has been able to sift through all the securities that banks have been unloading in a hurry, to pick out only the cream of the crop... lenders will likely require more capital for Annaly's own margin investments as a result of Carlyle's trouble.  This in turn will probably cause Annaly to issue more stock to raise capital, thereby diluting the stake of current shareholders.

    With that, the stock traded down some 25% this morning, and is currently off 20%.  I have not taken any action at this point and am still holding 300 shares in the company.  I expect that the stock will recover somewhat, and I will probably unload some of my position on any strength.  It kills me to sell this one at a loss, but the fact that Annaly may offer new shares to raise capital and thereby dilute the current shareholder value, will be a strong headwind on this issue.


  • Jones Apparel Group (JNY) - Currently Trading at $13.06

    This clothing retailer has also been getting crushed, down 6% on the day, on top of losses earlier in the week.  I knew there was going to be risk in this sector - obviously retail and finance have been doing terribly.  Nevertheless, the tide does have to eventually change direction, but it looks like I was way too early to the party here.  I still like this stock for it's better than 4% yield, and it's improving operations as noted in their last quarterly report.  Even so, my appetite for risk is fading fast in the wake of the heavy losses incurred today and the general trend of a falling market.


I am not taking any action with regard to these two names today, though my instinct is telling me that the time draws near to add to my position in JNY.  All the same, I do not believe it would be wise to increase my exposure to risky sectors such as retail and finance at this time.  A little shaken by the bad day, I'm going to take a cautious approach and wait to see where things go from here.


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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2008 - NLY, JNY [Re: geokills] * 1
    #8110460 - 03/06/08 10:54 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

I couldn't take the pain, currently at $16.45 - I have unloaded my position in Annaly Capital Management.

Even though their company hasn't done anything wrong yet, the collateral damage from the problems in the aggregate government-backed mortgage market are likely to keep negative pressure on this name. Sometimes it's just better to cut your losses and redistribute that capital to something with a better outlook (or buy back the same stock at a lower price). If Annaly falls below $14, I will be buying, but this market is just so tough right now, and I'd rather build up cash on hand for what looks to be the path of least resistance, down.


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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2008 - NLY, JNY [Re: Baeosistine] * 1
    #8110569 - 03/06/08 11:26 AM (15 years, 10 months ago)

I never said I wasn't crazy! :crazy2:


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