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discombobulate
Stranger


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Predictions for the Iowa primary
#7807266 - 12/28/07 12:19 PM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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Republicans: 1: Romney 2: Huckabee 3: Thompson 4: Paul 5: Guliani 6: McCain
Dems: 1: Clinton 2: Obama 3: Edwards 4: Richardsom
what are yours?
-------------------- This reminds me of the ludicrous account he gave Mr. Langton, of the despicable state of a young gentleman of good family. “Sir, when I heard of him last, he was running about town shooting cats.” And then in a sort of kindly reverie, he bethought himself of his own favorite cat, and said, “But Hodge shan’t be shot: no, no, Hodge shall not be shot.”
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.


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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: discombobulate]
#7807311 - 12/28/07 12:42 PM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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Republicans:
1:Thompson 2:Romney 3:Huckabee 4:Paul 5:McCain 6:Guliani
Dems:
1:Edwards 2:Clinton 3:Obama
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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Phred
Fred's son


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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: discombobulate]
#7807494 - 12/28/07 01:55 PM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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Republicans
Huckabee Romney Thompson McCain Giuliani Paul
Democrats:
Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Biden
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Misanthrope
Stranger

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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: Phred]
#7808005 - 12/28/07 05:01 PM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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Republicans:
Huckabee Romney McCain
Democrats:
Clinton Obama Edwards
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero



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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: Misanthrope]
#7808059 - 12/28/07 05:26 PM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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Republicans:
Huckabee Romney Paul Thompson McCain Giuliani
Democrats:
Billary Edwards/Obama Richardson/Biden
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Gijith
Daisy Chain Eater

Registered: 12/04/03
Posts: 2,400
Loc: New York
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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: Seuss]
#7808789 - 12/28/07 10:00 PM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Phred said: Republicans
Huckabee Romney Thompson McCain Giuliani Paul
Democrats:
Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Biden
I think Phred's right. But I think Biden might beat Richardson.
-------------------- what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?
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BrAiN
Art Fag


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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: Gijith]
#7808950 - 12/28/07 10:39 PM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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If it wasn't obvious enough how much the mainstream media is deliberately trying to push RON PAUL out of the picture so people don't find out about him.. Fox News is being ever more blatant about it:
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/press-releases/94/has-fox-news-excluded-ron-paul
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: discombobulate]
#7810180 - 12/29/07 10:27 AM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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Republicans:
Romney Paul Huckabee McCain Thompson Giuliani
I believe Romney will overtake Huckabee as Huckabee is increasingly discredited in the last week. Ron Paul's support in the state is not captured by the mainstream media's polls, but this will be the moment of truth. The margin between second and third will be very slim, and I do see it as possible that Ron Paul takes third, but I've went out on a limb and stated that Ron Paul will take second.
I don't follow the Democratic race enough to make a prediction.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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Phred
Fred's son


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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: fireworks_god]
#7810202 - 12/29/07 10:41 AM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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Oy vey.
I will agree that Romney might overtake Huckabee -- the Huckster has been saying some exceptionally stupid things lately, and people are beginning to notice that. But this is Iowa, after all... as of today I still think Huckabee will finish first by a few points.
As for Ron Paul finishing second....
BWAHAHAHAHAA!
There's a slender chance he might finish second last -- if Giuliani is caught on film humping a dead woman or a live boy. But second? Don't be delusional.
Phred
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



Registered: 03/12/02
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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: Phred]
#7810313 - 12/29/07 11:36 AM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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Ron Paul has much more support in Iowa than Giuliani. Fact. It'll translate into votes in one week. Wait and see.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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Gijith
Daisy Chain Eater

Registered: 12/04/03
Posts: 2,400
Loc: New York
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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: fireworks_god]
#7810591 - 12/29/07 01:40 PM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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He could beat Giuliani, but I think that's as far as it will go.
Keep in mind the average caucus goer is like 60 something. These people don't have the internet. They don't know who the dude is.
-------------------- what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?
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johnm214



Registered: 05/31/07
Posts: 17,582
Loc: Americas
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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: Gijith]
#7810594 - 12/29/07 01:43 PM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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the old people will be our downfall
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: Gijith]
#7811701 - 12/29/07 08:48 PM (16 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Gijith said: He could beat Giuliani, but I think that's as far as it will go.
Keep in mind the average caucus goer is like 60 something. These people don't have the internet. They don't know who the dude is.
Keep in mind that there has been a massive amount of grassroots work going on in Iowa. All these Ron Paul supporters that live on the Internet live in the real world too, you know. They've been pouring themselves and financial support into the state... I think they've sent over 600,000 handwritten letters in, running ads like crazy, as well as the official campaign... I'll be calling my grandpa down there to influence him to vote for Ron Paul, and my mother is now registered to vote for the first time in her life.
The media might not be showing you what is really happening in the state, and the polls aren't a good measure of translating that into something they do report.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.


Registered: 10/03/04
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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: discombobulate]
#7823140 - 01/02/08 10:41 AM (16 years, 30 days ago) |
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DES MOINES--The Des Moines Register, the most reliable poll we have for Iowa, is out with its final survey before the caucuses. On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee maintained a 6 point lead over Romney 32 to 26 despite the barrage of negative stories about him; John McCain surged into third place at 13 percent which would be a huge showing considering he didn't campaign much here and opposes ethanol subsidies; Fred Thompson and Ron Paul were tied at 9 percent which means that Thompson has seen no bounce from his debate performance and weeks of campaigning in Iowa (will he drop out if this is how he finishes?), and given the margin of error, it means that Paul has the potential to move into third place. Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani continues his slide, and is down to an abysmal 5 percent in polls. There is now an outside chance that he could lose to Paul in both Iowa and New Hampshire--which would be poetic justice for Paulites and an embarassment for Giuliani who will be kept on the defensive regarding his late state strategy.
Not surprisingly, the poll found that Huckabee had a huge advantage over Romney among "fundamentalist Christians," social conservatives, and those who think he shares their "core principles." Romney does better on the experience and electability front, but by a smaller margin. Nearly half of caucus-goers still say they could change their mind, so take these results with a grain of salt.
And regarding Jennifer's point that Huckabee's press conference stunt was "drawing very little criticism in Iowa," that's not quite right. The Des Moines Register did cover the story, and its chief political reporter, David Yepsen, urged caution regarding the poll because "it can't reflect the goofy press conference Huckabee held on Monday in which he promised not to run attack ads against Mitt Romney while producing them and showing them to reporters anyway. Right." Huckabee is a laughingstock for pulling that stunt among the local media as well. With that said, I do think Jennifer is generally right that it may not have much impact on actual voters. At every stop I've been to, Huckabee emphasizes that he's been outspent 20-1 and the media is against him. He'll just cleverly blame this whole controversy on the media and and use it to add further fuel to his populist, anti-establishment, let's show the media that they don't control who gets elected, message.
If I had to bet on this race today I'd put my money on Huckabee based on going to events here, looking at the crowd sizes, and talking with the voters. Huckabee is not only drawing larger crowds from what I've been able to see, but his voters seem a lot more enthusiastic about him than Romney supporters are about their man. They tell me how they like Huckabee because he shares their "Christian values," that he's a good man, he's down to earth, that they feel that they can trust him, unlike Romney. Once word of mouth gets out among regular churchgoers, it spreads like wildfire, and I think your seeing that reflected in Huckabee's surge and the resilience of his support. I think what we may see is a repeat of Bush-Kerry 2004, in which the GOP turnout machine that worked through local social networks trumped the paid, outsourced Kerry get out the vote efforts. Romney's anti-Huckabee ads have had mixed results from what I've been able to pick up. I've spoken to people who have said to me that they switched to Huckabee once Romney went negative, but I've also spoken to people who have said they can't support Huckabee because he is too soft on immigration and raised taxes. So, Romney could certainly pull this thing off.
I'm heading out to Clinton and Edwards events now, so will have more thoughts from the Democratic side when I return.
http://www.spectator.org/blogger.asp?BlogID=10119
the fucking GOP is committing Suicide!
1) A Socialist
2)pro-abortion
3)Mr. Amnesty
If this poll is true, the GOP is finished...
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 24,855
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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: lonestar2004]
#7823156 - 01/02/08 10:45 AM (16 years, 30 days ago) |
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They neglected to mention how the Des Moines Register unfairly stacked the deck for John McCain by officially endorsing him.... unbiased news, you bet.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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lonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.


Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: fireworks_god]
#7823187 - 01/02/08 10:52 AM (16 years, 30 days ago) |
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so you believe all the polls are bullshit?
-------------------- America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure" We have "reckless fiscal policies" America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better Barack Obama
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger



Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 24,855
Loc: Pandurn
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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: lonestar2004]
#7823211 - 01/02/08 11:02 AM (16 years, 30 days ago) |
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I believe they are representative of the group they poll, but my point was that I find a media officially endorsing a candidate unethical.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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Madtowntripper
Sun-Beams out of Cucumbers



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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: fireworks_god]
#7824094 - 01/02/08 03:06 PM (16 years, 30 days ago) |
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Quote:
fireworks_god said: They neglected to mention how the Des Moines Register unfairly stacked the deck for John McCain by officially endorsing him.... unbiased news, you bet.
Is this your first foray into American Presidential Politics?
You do realize that the the DMR is famous in political circles for their editorial endorsement of a candidate on the eve of the election?
They've ALWAYS done it.
Don't get mad because they didn't pick your favorite candidate.
Everyone who disagrees with you is not wrong.
-------------------- After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action. If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it. - Ernest Hemingway If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it. In the law courts, in business, in government. There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent. -Cormac MacCarthy He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God. - Aeschylus
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: discombobulate]
#7824177 - 01/02/08 03:35 PM (16 years, 30 days ago) |
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I am not going to give the entire list- just the top finishers IMO:
1) Romney 2) Huckabee
1) Edwards. If the polling of likely voters is accurate then he will really only finish third. I think he has some momentum however. He is also the only candidate Republicans actually fear so maybe voters will figure that out in the voting booth. 2) Clinton 3) Obama
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole


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Re: Predictions for the Iowa primary [Re: zorbman]
#7824204 - 01/02/08 03:42 PM (16 years, 30 days ago) |
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Quote:
zorbman said:
1) Edwards. If the polling of likely voters is accurate then he will really only finish third. I think he has some momentum however. He is also the only candidate Republicans actually fear so maybe voters will figure that out in the voting booth.
The only candidates Republicans fear are their own. It should be very difficult to blow it against this bunch of mutts.
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