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johnm214
Registered: 05/31/07
Posts: 17,582
Loc: Americas
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Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers in NH
#7781287 - 12/20/07 11:46 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please! -http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2007/12/ron-paulites-do.html
READERS' WARNING: Supporters of Ron Paul should not read this item. Perusing the following paragraphs may cause dizziness, nausea, vomiting, disappointment and renewed anger at political polls, the mainstream media, all institutions holding financial power and anyone not terribly concerned about that mysterious planned highway across Texas that somehow threatens national security.
O.K., now that they're gone to their chatrooms or one of their impressive 1,200 meet-up groups, for the rest of you some background: The Ron Paul Conspiracy has received more news coverage and made quite an impression online in recent months for its followers' persistence, pervasiveness and, to put it politely, outspokenness in favor of their Republican candidate, the 72-year-old, 10-term Texas congressman with the libertarian ideals and the numerous books. He's even been on the "Tonight Show with Jay Leno" and this Sunday is scheduled for an hour-long grilling by Tim Russert on "Meet the Press."
With fundraising persistence, dedication to "Dr. Paul" and admirable political energy in recent days their growing numbers made a huge name for themselves by raising more than $6 million online (more than $18 million for the quarter, they say), a new one-day political record.
Yet these Paulites have always dismissed polls, hated them, even despised them. They have many reasons besides the fact that no polls have given Paul much chance of winning anything. Polls, some suggest, are fictitious summaries of the mainstream media designed to suppress the Ron Paul Revolution. Polls are fake because no Paulite can remember ever being phoned for a survey. Many Paul supporters are new to the political process, so not on voter rolls to be polled. And they mostly use cellphones, not landlines. So they'd be somehow under-represented.
They maintained this stand even when Ron Paul's polling numbers in New Hampshire, for instance, increased geometrically from 2% to 4% to 8%, twice the support of better-known Fred Thompson.
Now, here's the news that would drive Paul supporters berserk if any had kept reading down to here, which they haven't: Ron Paul's polling numbers are now plummeting. Yup, going down, down. Once, he got the money to afford TV advertising in the Granite State, his support as measured by these no-doubt fraudulent polls began crumbling.
The new CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll out today shows Paul's support falling from its high of 8% in early November to 7% at the start of December and 5% last weekend, when he had his big fundraising success. (The phone survey of 411 random, likely Republican primary voters was between Dec. 13 and 17.)
Of course, if Paul supporters believed in polls, they would point out that....
with a margin of error of +/- 5%, Paul could theoretically be at 10%. That also means, naturally, he could be at 0% too.
Belief in Paul's ability to handle terrorism held steady at 3%, to handle the economy fell from 7% to 3% and to handle taxes from 9% to 5%. His support for handling illegal immigration was steady at 4%, to handle abortion up from 4% to 5% and his ability to address the Iraq war (he's the only GOP candidate who favors withdrawal) was steady at 5%.
Now, in case anyone cares about the non-Paul candidates who have a chance of winning, Mitt Romney's percentage jumped from 32% to 34% from the beginning to middle of December, with the endorsement of the Manchester Union-Leader and Boston Globe John McCain increased from 19% to 22%, Rudy Giuliani fell from 19% to 16% and Mike Huckabee went from 9% to 10%.
Thompson and Tom Tancredo, who will announce the end of his candidacy Thursday, according to an Associated Press report tonight, held steady at 1% support while California's Congressman Duncan Hunter went from 0% to 1%.
On the poll's Democratic side, 469 likely primary voters produced a margin of error of 5%. After some troubled weeks when her support faded from a high of 43% in September to 31% at the start of December, Hillary Clinton's numbers surged back to 38%, while Barack Obama's slipped somewhat from 30% to 26% and John Edwards from 16% to 14%.
Bill Richardson went from 7% to 8%, Dennis Kucinich from 3% to 2%, Joe Biden from 1% to 2% and Chris Dodd from 1% to 0%.
If they were still reading down to here which, of course, they're not because they don't believe in polls, Paul supporters would say that none of this matters because only real votes count come Jan. 8. And, you know what, on that they would be 100% right.
--Andrew Malcolm
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im_on_a_boat
Stranger
Registered: 04/06/06
Posts: 3,950
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: johnm214]
#7781304 - 12/20/07 11:51 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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it is a shame not more people are turning up..
a lot of people still dont know about him.. or want to take the time to research.. or give a shit about politics..
not many things to keep one from being apathetic.. seems so futile sometimes.. like one vote matters.. pssh.
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EntheogenicPeace
Scholar
Registered: 10/04/05
Posts: 3,926
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: im_on_a_boat]
#7781330 - 12/20/07 11:57 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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---
Edited by EntheogenicPeace (02/12/21 05:26 PM)
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im_on_a_boat
Stranger
Registered: 04/06/06
Posts: 3,950
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: EntheogenicPeace]
#7781540 - 12/20/07 12:52 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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i didn't say it's surprising.. not that you are saying that i said it was surprising..
but it's a shame that the political system really is like this.. not much chance for a change.. at least not a major change.
and i think it could work. it could really work for the better.
i'm just sad to see that people dont want change..
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xFrockx
Registered: 09/17/06
Posts: 10,457
Loc: Northeast
Last seen: 12 days, 16 hours
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: im_on_a_boat]
#7781608 - 12/20/07 01:08 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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This would be really damaging if he hadn't already said he's spending most of the money in the super Tuesday states.
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SlashOZ
:D
Registered: 10/20/06
Posts: 3,557
Loc: Following the water cycle
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: johnm214]
#7781914 - 12/20/07 02:37 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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independent voters, the silent majority i believe are in favor of ron paul. we'll see about my gut feeling and its correctness soon enough.
-------------------- "Life sucks but in this really beautiful way" - Axl Rose "Life's a bitch and then you die that's why we get high cuz you never know when you're gonna go." - NAS "When people don't know what you're about they put you down and shut you out" - Black Sabbath "An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind" - Gandhi "Look up at me I am God, look down on me and I am evil, look at me I am you." - Charles Manson. "Don't question my reality." - Me (as far as I know)
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ElectricJW
Stoner
Registered: 10/31/05
Posts: 136
Last seen: 7 years, 1 month
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: SlashOZ]
#7782223 - 12/20/07 04:19 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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I hate how people put soo much faith into the accuracy of these polls. 1) Most scientific polls only poll those who voted the last time as a republican 2) they call people on lan line phones, not cell phones 3) they don't poll first time voters 4) I could be wrong, but they i've heard that they don't poll younger voters 5) most of the polls only poll around 500 people (most of hte scientific polls anyway), and this isn't large enough number of people polled to correctly speak for the nation.
If you look at online polls done after the GOP debates on the MSM sites, like fox, cnn, msnbc, etc, you will see that Ron Paul has won all of those, and if you look at the number of people who voted in the poll, usually the numbers are in the 10's of thousands, and one poll I remembered there were over 85,000 people who voted.
But if you just ignore all the polls, and just look at the number of people who has donated to RP's campaign compared to the others, look at the number of meetup groups of RP compared to the others, etc....you will see that there are more RP supporters than the others. If you take this into consideration, then there is no way RP is REALLY at 4-6% nationally.
-------------------- "Visualize the action, then actualize the vision." - King of the Hill “Long you live and high you'll fly and smiles you'll give and tears you'll cry and all you touch and all you see is all your life will ever be.”- Pink Floyd
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discombobulate
Stranger
Registered: 06/18/07
Posts: 89
Last seen: 13 years, 3 months
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: ElectricJW]
#7783866 - 12/20/07 10:55 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
ElectricJW said: I hate how people put soo much faith into the accuracy of these polls. 1) Most scientific polls only poll those who voted the last time as a republican 2) they call people on lan line phones, not cell phones 3) they don't poll first time voters 4) I could be wrong, but they i've heard that they don't poll younger voters 5) most of the polls only poll around 500 people (most of hte scientific polls anyway), and this isn't large enough number of people polled to correctly speak for the nation.
If you look at online polls done after the GOP debates on the MSM sites, like fox, cnn, msnbc, etc, you will see that Ron Paul has won all of those, and if you look at the number of people who voted in the poll, usually the numbers are in the 10's of thousands, and one poll I remembered there were over 85,000 people who voted.
But if you just ignore all the polls, and just look at the number of people who has donated to RP's campaign compared to the others, look at the number of meetup groups of RP compared to the others, etc....you will see that there are more RP supporters than the others. If you take this into consideration, then there is no way RP is REALLY at 4-6% nationally.
Not to mention the Democrats and Independents who are going to be voting for him, people who haven't voted before, and the fact that he has won more straw polls than any other Republican candidate
-------------------- This reminds me of the ludicrous account he gave Mr. Langton, of the despicable state of a young gentleman of good family. “Sir, when I heard of him last, he was running about town shooting cats.” And then in a sort of kindly reverie, he bethought himself of his own favorite cat, and said, “But Hodge shan’t be shot: no, no, Hodge shall not be shot.”
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger
Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 24,855
Loc: Pandurn
Last seen: 1 year, 2 months
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: xFrockx]
#7784625 - 12/21/07 06:14 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
xFrockx said: This would be really damaging if he hadn't already said he's spending most of the money in the super Tuesday states.
Source? He's stated, as far as I know, that they should be well-off enough to be able to compete in the super Tuesday states, not that they are spending most of their money there. New Hampshire is probably receiving the brunt of Ron Paul's focus right now, probably a little more than Iowa is. I don't see how this would be really damaging, anyways.
-------------------- If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger
Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 24,855
Loc: Pandurn
Last seen: 1 year, 2 months
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: EntheogenicPeace]
#7784628 - 12/21/07 06:20 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
EntheogenicPeace said: I don't think it's the least bit surprising that he probably won't crack 10% in any primary among Republican voters.
In any primary, or any primary poll?
Quote:
After all, we're talking about Republicans let's not forget. Modern-day Republicans are more or less fascists; why do people think any significant # of them are going to back an anti-fascist candidate all of a sudden when they've overwhelmingly voted for the opposite for decades?
I was hearing commentators on Fox News the other day state that they believe there is a large Republican contingent that is dissatisfied with the direction their party is going, and are supporting Ron Paul. Coupled with other reports with angry, active Republicans, the ones who do the leg-work for the party, I would have to assume there is at least some truth to this. I couldn't put any numbers down, in fact, I've been trying to pick the minds of the grass-roots organization for reasonable estimates of how many Ron Paul supporters are actually out there, because at this point, its obvious how many are there that are willing to donate, but I'm really wondering how expansive this is... and we just have to play the waiting game right now to find out.
The good news is that Ron Paul is pretty strategically set to blast through the first primaries while other candidates begin to drop off, like McCain and Thompson. If he can come in 1st through 3rd in any of these first five or so, so much the better.
-------------------- If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger
Registered: 03/12/02
Posts: 24,855
Loc: Pandurn
Last seen: 1 year, 2 months
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: fireworks_god]
#7784791 - 12/21/07 08:22 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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-------------------- If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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Phred
Fred's son
Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 12,949
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 9 years, 2 months
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: fireworks_god]
#7784873 - 12/21/07 09:03 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Learn how to read a poll.
That's 9% of the people polled who don't yet have a candidate preference. How many out of the 477 people polled don't yet have a preference for candidate? Thirty? Sixty? A hundred? We have no way of knowing.
Phred
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xFrockx
Registered: 09/17/06
Posts: 10,457
Loc: Northeast
Last seen: 12 days, 16 hours
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: fireworks_god]
#7785151 - 12/21/07 11:03 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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I can't be bothered to look it up, but I know I saw a story about it somewhere, maybe on his forums news section.
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 1 month, 19 days
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: Phred]
#7785179 - 12/21/07 11:11 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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> That's 9% of the people polled who don't yet have a candidate preference.
Details... details...
Take the 5% that he is currently polling at, add my 6% "bias" error, and Paul comes in with at least 11% on primary day... (big assumptions on my error estimate, but I think I am in the ballpark)
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
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EntheogenicPeace
Scholar
Registered: 10/04/05
Posts: 3,926
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers i [Re: fireworks_god]
#7785376 - 12/21/07 12:02 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Edited by EntheogenicPeace (02/12/21 05:27 PM)
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Luddite
I watch Fox News
Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
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Re: Ron Paul supporters: Do NOT read this. Please!- A critical view of recent Paul polling numbers in NH [Re: johnm214]
#7786501 - 12/21/07 05:52 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Its fun to see the crazies suffer when their fantasies don't come true.
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