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weallsmoke
Rap god frombeyond the moon



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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: The Tourist]
#8277513 - 04/13/08 12:26 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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no defiantly not, Ive been thinking about how more and more people are starting to think deeply, perhaps we will make that change
OK ALL OF YOU WE MUST BURN ALL THE CHURCHES IN THE U.S.!
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade


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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: weallsmoke]
#8277539 - 04/13/08 12:34 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Tourist, you're not going to see a sudden catastrophe. Nobody (well, very few people) believe that the problems of Global Warming will suddenly cause a cataclysm. There are scientific arguments for some cataclysmic events, such as the shutting down of major sea currents, but many scientists believe that the real problems will be much slower-coming, but equally devastating. Population zones of hundreds of millions of people will be washed away, hurricane frequency will increase, along with average hurricane intensity, tropical diseases will have a greater swath of viable land to infect hosts, many species will become extinct, and famine in already dry areas will become widespread.
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero



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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8280968 - 04/14/08 05:24 AM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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> Population zones of hundreds of millions of people will be washed away
As has happened in the past with other species when the world goes into or comes out of an ice age; all without the help of humans.
> hurricane frequency will increase, along with average hurricane intensity
Guesses.
> tropical diseases will have a greater swath of viable land to infect hosts
And diseases that thrive in cold climates (such as cold and flu) will have a smaller swath of viable land to infect hosts.
> many species will become extinct
Leaving room for new species to evolve, as has happened in the past.
> and famine in already dry areas will become widespread.
Not knowing what the end result of the landscape will be, this is a guess as well. Certain areas that are currently uninhabitable will become lush while certain areas that are currently lush will turn into desert (based upon what we can tell of past events). Will the overall landmass change to produce more food, or less food, nobody knows.
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
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AnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: Seuss]
#8282021 - 04/14/08 12:17 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
As has happened in the past with other species when the world goes into or comes out of an ice age; all without the help of humans.
And somehow this means that our washing away of population zones of hundreds of millions of people is not a bad thing? Maybe not for you, but I doubt that if you posed that question to the majority of people, they'd agree.
Quote:
> hurricane frequency will increase, along with average hurricane intensity
Guesses.
Not just guesses. The Sea Surface Temperature is warming up just like the air surface temperatures. As such, the swath of ocean on which hurricanes can form is getting larger. Furthermore, the swath of time in which hurricanes can form is longer. Furthermore, with warmer surface temperatures, stronger hurricanes on average can be expected.
This study appeared in Nature and many other studies have come to very similar conclusions:
Emanuel, K. A., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.
This study was the first to examine the power associated with past hurricane activity. Emanuel found a strong correlation between increases in hurricane intensity and rising tropical North Atlantic SSTs, consistent with basic theoretical expectations. As tropical SSTs have increased in past decades, so has the intrinsic destructive potential of hurricanes.
So no, not just "guesses"
Quote:
> tropical diseases will have a greater swath of viable land to infect hosts
And diseases that thrive in cold climates (such as cold and flu) will have a smaller swath of viable land to infect hosts.
The cold and flu does not normally kill millions of people. Diseases in high population zones with little sanitation do kill millions, though, and the places that will be hardest hit are those who are already in poverty, such as Africa, places in Asia and India, South America, Mexico, etc. Perhaps you don't believe this is immoral, but I personally believe that this is wretched. Less cold and flu for us, more Malaria, Dysentery, and death for others...
by the way, far fewer diseases thrive in cold climates than in warm climates.
Quote:
> many species will become extinct
Leaving room for new species to evolve, as has happened in the past.
Wanton destruction of the ecosystem of this earth is not palatable to many people, and our destruction of species is much faster than the speed of evolution. Not every animal will die, not even close, and some species will adapt and evolve, but once again, does it make it right that we cling to fossil fuels with disregard to the environment that we live in? Perhaps this isn't the worst thing about global warming (worser things have been discussed in my last post), but it's still a pity.
Quote:
> and famine in already dry areas will become widespread.
Not knowing what the end result of the landscape will be, this is a guess as well. Certain areas that are currently uninhabitable will become lush while certain areas that are currently lush will turn into desert (based upon what we can tell of past events). Will the overall landmass change to produce more food, or less food, nobody knows.
Currently uninhabitable lands will become inhabitable, this is true, but this will happen in places of permafrost. The total land mass of places in permafrost is less than the land mass of grasslands and deserts.
http://www.pbs.org/journeytoplanetearth/stateoftheplanet/grasslands.html
Grasslands make up about 40% of the earths surface. Deserts make up about 1/6. Permafrost makes up only about 20%.
The amount of land opened up through melting and thawing of permafrost is going to be much less than the amount of land that becomes uninhabitable and too dry to sustain crop growth.
Another effect of global warming on crop production is discussed here:
Long S.P., Ainsworth E.A., Leakey A.D.B., Nosberger J. & Ort D.R. (2006) Food for thought: Lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations. Science, 312, 1918-1921.
Quote:
Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO2] enhanced yield by ~50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO2] will offset losses due to climate change.
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MushmanTheManic
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8282025 - 04/14/08 12:19 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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I don't mean to be a cheerleader, but supernovasky completely pwned this thread.
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zorbman
blarrr


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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: MushmanTheManic]
#8282063 - 04/14/08 12:30 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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That's putting it mildly.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade


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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: zorbman]
#8282089 - 04/14/08 12:37 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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I'll quote a very wise man in history when I say this..
If I have seen farther than others, it is only because I am standing on the shoulders of giants.
I'm not the one who made these discoveries. I'm just a humble scientist who seeks the truth. I am a skeptic, but I don't hide behind the guise of skepticism to fit science to my own political views. I search for the right answers, and I follow the evidence. I hope I've made a cleared up the issue and separated the facts from the lies to at least ONE person in this forum who was not fully convinced beforehand. If I did that, then I've done what I sought to do.
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (04/14/08 12:53 PM)
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TheCow
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8282799 - 04/14/08 03:39 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Log in to view attachment
Yea, actually I hadnt known much about the subject previous to this thread. I downloaded some of the research articles you posted to check them out, interesting stuff. I wish we had in this thread someone on the opposite side that would actually post data and research papers. All we get are a few line answers saying the same things
I attached the paper you mentioned in the previous post
Edited by TheCow (04/14/08 03:44 PM)
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AnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: TheCow]
#8282842 - 04/14/08 03:54 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Its a good, influential paper, The Cow, because most papers before that one focused only on hurricane number... but to be honest, thats not a good metric, because a year with 10 category 1 hurricanes would be ranked stronger than a year with 5 category 4 storms, and 4 category 3 storms, which is just ridiculous. When you look at the intensity of hurricanes, there is no doubt that as sea surface temperatures get warmer, so do hurricanes. Its a basic tenet of meteorology.
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Luddite
I watch Fox News


Registered: 03/23/06
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8283028 - 04/14/08 04:46 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Global warming may reduce hurricanes hitting U.S.
By Jim Loney
MIAMI, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Rising ocean temperatures linked to global warming could decrease the number of hurricanes hitting the United States, according to new research released on Wednesday.
The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, challenges recent research that suggests global warming could be contributing to an increase in the frequency and the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes.
At the same time, it reaffirmed earlier views that warmer sea waters might result in atmospheric instabilities that could prevent tropical storms from forming.
Atlantic storms play a pivotal role in the global energy, insurance and commodities markets, particularly since the devastating 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, which hammered U.S. oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.
The new study suggests that warmer seas, caused by greenhouse gases blamed for a rise in global temperatures, are linked to an increase in vertical wind shear, a difference in wind speeds at different altitudes that can tear apart nascent cyclones.
Hurricanes feed on warm water, leading to conventional wisdom supported by some recent research that global warming could be revving up more powerful storms.
But the new study, by oceanographer Chunzai Wang of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Sang-Ki Lee, a scientist at the University of Miami, examined 150 years of hurricane records and found a small decline in hurricanes making landfall in the United States as the oceans warmed.
"The attribution of the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity to global warming is premature. ... Global warming may decrease the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall in the United States," the researchers wrote.
Much of the recent research focused on the total number of tropical storms and hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean, but Wang said the number of those hurricanes actually hitting the United States is a much better indicator.
Prior to the mid-1960s when satellites and other technology made it easier to spot cyclones, some tropical storms and hurricanes lived and died far out at sea, undetected.
As a result, scientists trying to track long-term trends in the frequency of Atlantic storms work with uncertain data.
"We believe U.S. landings for hurricanes are most reliable measurements over the long term," Wang said.
The study found that warming of the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans increases Atlantic wind shear while rising sea temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic decrease shear.
The two effects compete, but the net impact is an increase in wind shear in the main Atlantic hurricane development zone, from the west coast of Africa to Central America.
"The Pacific and Indian warming wins and the result is a decrease in landfalling U.S. hurricanes," Wang said.
In 2004, four strong hurricanes hit Florida, causing billions of dollars in damage across the state. In 2005, a record-breaking 28 tropical storms formed, including Katrina, which killed 1,500 people and caused $80 billion damage.
The back-to-back years of unusually intense hurricane activity fueled debate about the impact of global warming. (Editing by Michael Christie and Todd Eastham)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/homepageCrisis/idUKN23640879._CH_.242020080123
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2004139813_oceans23.html
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/nation/5476992.html
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-01/23/content_7477009.htm
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AnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: Luddite]
#8283045 - 04/14/08 04:53 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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From your source:
Quote:
Much of the recent research focused on the total number of tropical storms and hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean, but Wang said the number of those hurricanes actually hitting the United States is a much better indicator.
Lmao!
I just went over why this was a HORRIBLE indicator. Using his metrics, 5 category 1 storms hitting the US are given the same credence as 5 category 5 storms.
The best, absolute best, indicator of what increased sea surface temperatures does to hurricane is the hurricane intensity, not the "number of storms that hit the united states."
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade


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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8283092 - 04/14/08 05:13 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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By the way, you can read this paper, just as recent as yours, that uses the proper metrics to determine the effects of heated SSTs on hurricane intensities:
Quote:
ScienceDaily (Jan. 31, 2008) — The link between changes in the temperature of the sea's surface and increases in North Atlantic hurricane activity has been quantified for the first time. The research - carried out by scientists at UCL (University College London) and due to be published in Nature on January 31 - shows that a 0.5°C increase in sea surface temperature can be associated with an approximately 40 per cent increase in hurricane activity.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v451/n7178/edsumm/e080131-11.html
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Luddite
I watch Fox News


Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8296704 - 04/17/08 03:33 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Hurricanes aren't caused by global warming.
http://www.aninconvenientguilttrip.com/
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Luddite
I watch Fox News


Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: MushmanTheManic]
#8296717 - 04/17/08 03:37 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
MushmanTheManic said: I don't mean to be a cheerleader, but supernovasky completely pwned this thread.
He pissed all over this thread.
http://SriBaba.fileave.com/SciMag/386.html http://SriBaba.fileave.com/SciMag/442.pdf
Edited by Luddite (04/17/08 03:41 PM)
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AnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: Luddite]
#8296774 - 04/17/08 03:50 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Lol. Great, unbiased, peer reviewed sources there, Luddite. I dont think anyone is fooled for one moment, to be honest.
For one, I never said hurricanes are caused by global warming. I said global warming undoubtedly increases the intensity of storms.
For two, nowhere in your first link was there any reference to a peer reviewed journal report.
For three, if you have an argument to make, make it yourself and use peer-reviewed, scientific articles to back up your points. If you dont understand the argument enough to do that, then you shouldn't be arguing it in the first place.
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luvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?



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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: luvdemshrooms]
#8317619 - 04/23/08 03:41 AM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh
Phil Chapman | April 23, 2008
THE scariest photo I have seen on the internet is www.spaceweather.com, where you will find a real-time image of the sun from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, located in deep space at the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity.
What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny sunspot.
Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global temperature is falling precipitously.
All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.
There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2007 was exceptionally cold. It snowed in Baghdad for the first time in centuries, the winter in China was simply terrible and the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the austral winter was the greatest on record since James Cook discovered the place in 1770.
It is generally not possible to draw conclusions about climatic trends from events in a single year, so I would normally dismiss this cold snap as transient, pending what happens in the next few years.
This is where SOHO comes in. The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers.
It didn't happen. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon.
The reason this matters is that there is a close correlation between variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth's climate. The previous time a cycle was delayed like this was in the Dalton Minimum, an especially cold period that lasted several decades from 1790.
Northern winters became ferocious: in particular, the rout of Napoleon's Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots.
That the rapid temperature decline in 2007 coincided with the failure of cycle No.24 to begin on schedule is not proof of a causal connection but it is cause for concern.
It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850.
There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it.
Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to compensate), and millions more will die from cold-related diseases.
There is also another possibility, remote but much more serious. The Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and other evidence show that for the past several million years, severe glaciation has almost always afflicted our planet.
The bleak truth is that, under normal conditions, most of North America and Europe are buried under about 1.5km of ice. This bitterly frigid climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm interglacials, typically lasting less than 10,000 years.
The interglacial we have enjoyed throughout recorded human history, called the Holocene, began 11,000 years ago, so the ice is overdue. We also know that glaciation can occur quickly: the required decline in global temperature is about 12C and it can happen in 20 years.
The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. On the other hand, it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. If it continued for 20 years, the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027.
By then, most of the advanced nations would have ceased to exist, vanishing under the ice, and the rest of the world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond imagining.
Australia may escape total annihilation but would surely be overrun by millions of refugees. Once the glaciation starts, it will last 1000 centuries, an incomprehensible stretch of time.
If the ice age is coming, there is a small chance that we could prevent or at least delay the transition, if we are prepared to take action soon enough and on a large enough scale.
For example: We could gather all the bulldozers in the world and use them to dirty the snow in Canada and Siberia in the hope of reducing the reflectance so as to absorb more warmth from the sun.
We also may be able to release enormous floods of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from the hydrates under the Arctic permafrost and on the continental shelves, perhaps using nuclear weapons to destabilise the deposits.
We cannot really know, but my guess is that the odds are at least 50-50 that we will see significant cooling rather than warming in coming decades.
The probability that we are witnessing the onset of a real ice age is much less, perhaps one in 500, but not totally negligible.
All those urging action to curb global warming need to take off the blinkers and give some thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead.
It will be difficult for people to face the truth when their reputations, careers, government grants or hopes for social change depend on global warming, but the fate of civilisation may be at stake.
In the famous words of Oliver Cromwell, "I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken."
Phil Chapman is a geophysicist and astronautical engineer who lives in San Francisco. He was the first Australian to become a NASA astronaut.
-------------------- You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade


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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: luvdemshrooms]
#8318061 - 04/23/08 09:21 AM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Luvd, nice peer reviewed source there. There is nothing, at all, suggesting that we are about to enter a Maunder minimum (which is what the article is suggesting), or that the sun's energy output is going to dip bellow the normal cycles of raises and dips.
The projection for cycle 24, by the way, was not this year (and the cycles are not EXACTLY 11 years. Some take a little longer, some take a little shorter).

We're at a minimum right now, like we are supposed to be. Nothing out of the ordinary.
Source: You can follow the image link, but its http://science.nasa.gov.
The first sunspots will probably appear towards the end of this year, but even still, dont expect many. It isn't due to peak until 2012 or so.
Lastly, sunspot numbers have no correlation with temperature (and if you believe they do, please provide scientific sources that say such.
Here is the correlation between sunspot number and temperature:

Source for sunspot number is the Royal Greenwich Observatory - USAF/NOAA Sunspot Data Source for Temperature is the GISS Average Source for CO2 is Mauna Loa
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AnonymousRabbit
Comrade


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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8319810 - 04/23/08 05:20 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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Oh, by the way, you are flat out wrong that the temperature this year is just as cool as it was in 1930. The anomaly is still VASTLY more than it was in 1930, and the MEAN (the trendline) is still positive and increasing. You can pick one data point and another datapoint to make the data say whatever you like, all that shows is that you dont understand the difference between analyzing two points of data, and anlyzing SEVERAL. This argument was hashed out in many posts in this thread, so all it shows is that you did not read the thread before you posted this comment, Luvd. Not that that is surprising, the thread IS 25 pages long, but it still annoys me to have to dig through pages to bring back old arguments:
When I show that without a doubt, the average temperature has been increasing since 1998. WhereI show yearly averages and 5 year averages to show the 2000s were hotter than the 1990s. Where I show that even their own notorious hadcrut graph from the hadley center shows average warming of the planet where I showed how comparing the hottest month in 1998 to the coldest in 2008 is not indicitive of average yearly temperatures decreasing this decade where I show that even with Phred's noisy month-by-month data chart that does not even use yearly averages, that even HIS chart represents an increasing trendline
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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (04/23/08 10:12 PM)
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weallsmoke
Rap god frombeyond the moon



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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: Silversoul]
#8320514 - 04/23/08 07:35 PM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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The Earth changes all the time, what happens happens.
The way I see it, I'm privileged to see how it ends if it does
Do you know how many people ask that question and we finally get to see it.
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luvdemshrooms
Two inch dick..but it spins!?



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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
#8321956 - 04/24/08 03:46 AM (15 years, 9 months ago) |
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It's pretty sad when people assume you have or have not read something.
Perhaps foolish is a better word. Don't mistake not being brainwashed for not having read.
-------------------- You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers
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