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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: Phred]
    #8094229 - 03/02/08 04:25 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Yes, I've mentioned this in other threads most notably about the bullshit artist Hansen who got caught with his thumb on the scale. A quick Google search of "Nasa restates temperature data 1930 hottest" turns up lots of hits but the most succinct is this Washington Times article.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070815/EDITORIAL/108150004

Quote:

Here's what we know: The National Climatic Data Center reported in mid-January that 2006 was the hottest year on record. Then, in May, it revised the numbers, concluding that 1998, in fact, was the hottest on record. NASA's old numbers echoed that last contention. But last week, it emerged that NASA had quietly restated its numbers, without fanfare or so much as a press release, after a blogger pointed out faulty methodology. Now, per NASA: 1934 is hottest, followed by 1998, 1921, 2006 and 1931.





I can't remember who it was who caught Hansen's error. I'll look through my bookmarks. This will do for now.


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: Phred]
    #8094234 - 03/02/08 04:27 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:


Wrong.

I'm on a borrowed computer, so don't have access to my bookmarks, but maybe zappisgod will reprint the corrected GISS numbers. You are still linking to the faulty ones.

NOAA/GISS was forced a few months ago to shamefacedly admit they'd fucked up the numbers for the "ten hottest years of the century". There wasn't much publicity about this, of course, since it doesn't fit the Global Warmenist agenda, but the corrected numbers are out there somewhere now. As I say, I have them bookmarked on my own computer which is awaiting a part. Maybe zappaisgod still has the link, or can remember which thread the corrected numbers were posted in and can bump it, because that thread has the links in it.




In fact, man, I just HAVE to respond again. It is EMBARASSING to see this post, disconcerting, and even a bit saddening to me. Do you really enjoy science? Do you appreciate what it has to offer society? I really want insight into the way your mind works, man, because I want to understand why people of your caliber, obviously educated enough to at least be interested in the data, manage to so easily be led astray. Did you KNOW that the stuff you were reading on blogs about "the shamefaced correction" was based on a large misunderstanding of the correction itself? Did you KNOW that it was only applicable to the US stations and had very little effect on the global temperature record?

One of two things is happening here.

1) You knew that this was only applicable to the US temperature record, not the global temperature record, and that its effect on the global temperature record was off. You just wanted to display the data out of context to fool good, interested, and motivated people who are trying to understand the science. There ARE people like this out there, especially some of the blogs with people who I KNOW understand science and are more interested in misrepresenting it.

2) You did not know that this was only applicable to the US temperature record. You read a poorly worded graph and a VERY compelling blog. It made it sound like NASA was TOTALLY wrong and that this was the blunder of the century. It made it sound like the reason it was not being reported was not because it honestly didnt change anything, but because there was a vast conspiracy by left-wingers to censor right wing claims of non-climate change. If this is the case, you need to quit reading those blogs now. They are rotting your brain, worse than any shroom on this site can. You need to read from good blogs that talk about the science behind global warming. www.realclimate.org is a good place to start. Research all of the NASA GISS information. Read essays and once you have enough scientific background, read the academic journal reports.

I really hope that you are #2, because if you are #1, I have no respect whatsoever for those kind of people.


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8094247 - 03/02/08 04:32 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:


Yes, I've mentioned this in other threads most notably about the bullshit artist Hansen who got caught with his thumb on the scale. A quick Google search of "Nasa restates temperature data 1930 hottest" turns up lots of hits but the most succinct is this Washington Times article.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070815/EDITORIAL/108150004

Quote:
Here's what we know: The National Climatic Data Center reported in mid-January that 2006 was the hottest year on record. Then, in May, it revised the numbers, concluding that 1998, in fact, was the hottest on record. NASA's old numbers echoed that last contention. But last week, it emerged that NASA had quietly restated its numbers, without fanfare or so much as a press release, after a blogger pointed out faulty methodology. Now, per NASA: 1934 is hottest, followed by 1998, 1921, 2006 and 1931.




I can't remember who it was who caught Hansen's error. I'll look through my bookmarks. This will do for now.





I already showed you why this article that you posted was wrong and misleading, in an earlier post that I just posted. But furthermore, watch how carefully they try to mislead you with their article. Remember that I said that the temperature flaw only affected the US continental records, you can look at the charts, graphs, and links I provided for proof of that. Your entire article never even explicitly mentions this FACT. Instead, the only time it is mentioned that the records only applied to US temperatures, which make up only 2-3% of the earths surface, was here:

Quote:

Here's another hysteric, The Washington Post, in January: "Last year was the warmest in the continental United States in the past 112 years," read its front-page story, "capping a nine-year warming streak 'unprecedented in the historical record' that was driven in part by the burning of fossil fuels, the government reported yesterday." Funny, but we thought "unprecedented" would require an absence of, well, precedents, such as the 1920s and 1930s. These years were similarly warm decades, like the present.




The error is WELL-documented, and once again, did not change the global temperature record. It barely changed the US temperature record, as I posted the charts before that show the new record, and the old record.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8094250 - 03/02/08 04:33 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

It was this guy:
http://www.climateaudit.org/

Kool-aid drinkers need not bother.


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8094260 - 03/02/08 04:36 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Yes, I've mentioned this in other threads most notably about the bullshit artist Hansen who got caught with his thumb on the scale. A quick Google search of "Nasa restates temperature data 1930 hottest" turns up lots of hits but the most succinct is this Washington Times article.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070815/EDITORIAL/108150004

Quote:
Here's what we know: The National Climatic Data Center reported in mid-January that 2006 was the hottest year on record. Then, in May, it revised the numbers, concluding that 1998, in fact, was the hottest on record. NASA's old numbers echoed that last contention. But last week, it emerged that NASA had quietly restated its numbers, without fanfare or so much as a press release, after a blogger pointed out faulty methodology. Now, per NASA: 1934 is hottest, followed by 1998, 1921, 2006 and 1931.




I can't remember who it was who caught Hansen's error. I'll look through my bookmarks. This will do for now.




In fact, dude, this just shows another problem. This tells me that you get your science from conservative newspapers and conservative blogs. They are not, historically, the best place to get science information. NASA itself has a well-documented detail of the correction, along with its effects. Also, from NASA itself (AFTER the correction):

Quote:

The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a remarkable 0.2°C above the prior record with the help of the "El Niño of the century". The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in the cool phase of its natural El Niño-La Niña cycle.

Figure 1 shows 2007 temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 base period mean. The global mean temperature anomaly, 0.57°C (about 1°F) warmer than the 1951-1980 mean, continues the strong warming trend of the past thirty years that has been confidently attributed to the effect of increasing human-made greenhouse gases (GHGs) (Hansen et al. 2007). The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since 1990.




http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/


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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (03/02/08 04:39 PM)


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OfflineTheCow
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8094261 - 03/02/08 04:36 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

:awesome:


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8094269 - 03/02/08 04:38 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:


It was this guy:
http://www.climateaudit.org/

Kool-aid drinkers need not bother.




Anybody can read the above, and all of my links, to see why the analysis does NOT mean that 1934 was the warmest year on record. In fact, 1934 is not even in the top 10 of the global temperature record. Way to make a warm year for 2% of the earths surface seem like it applies to the entire 100% of the earths surface temperature record.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Registered: 02/11/04
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8094274 - 03/02/08 04:41 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

In reference to the global record: it was not as extensively challenged nor does it have the reliability of the US only data due to the questionable nature of the stations.

The charts you posted show an unreadable overlay of dots. I went to the actual site and was still unable to make a reading on the overlay of lines and points when I blew it up as big as it would allow. What is a fact is that we are not currently experiencing any particular temperature anomaly (see other hot years in 30s and 20s) and there is not one fucking thing I have seen presented that establishes the causality arrow. There is NOTHING at all unique about the current global temperature to elicit this panicked nonsense. Unless you like panic. Then, bash away.


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8094297 - 03/02/08 04:48 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:


In reference to the global record: it was not as extensively challenged nor does it have the reliability of the US only data due to the questionable nature of the stations.

The charts you posted show an unreadable overlay of dots. I went to the actual site and was still unable to make a reading on the overlay of lines and points when I blew it up as big as it would allow. What is a fact is that we are not currently experiencing any particular temperature anomaly (see other hot years in 30s and 20s) and there is not one fucking thing I have seen presented that establishes the causality arrow. There is NOTHING at all unique about the current global temperature to elicit this panicked nonsense. Unless you like panic. Then, bash away.




Duck and run, man, duck and run. Lol. So now you call to question the data itself that NASA uses for the global temperature record? Guess what, you CANT establish a global temperature record without data from many outside stations away from the US. You really think that people have trouble reading a thermometer unless they are in America? The data is from stations all over the world, not just in America, and the data points to global warming. You can read about the data here at GISS:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

I showed you exactly why you cannot say that 1930s were the warmest on record, because they quite simply are not. When using stations around the world, not just in 2% of the world, a clear trend is established. The past decade, according to the scientists that have actually been taking the measurements and compiling them, was the hottest on record. All information shows that the earth has been heating up. There is no information that shows that the earth has been cooling down in the past 30 years. Your claims were as false as can possibly be.

You tried to mislead people.
You tried to say that a graph that represents 2% of the earths surface and extrapolating that graph to cover the other 98%, is a better way to determine the global temperature record than actually using stations in the other 98% of the world.

Just because YOU cannot read the data, YOU cannot understand the graphs, and YOU refuse to put things into context, does not mean the data is at all false. The charts I show you show the difference between the old record and the new record, after the revision took place. Yes, in the USA, 1934 took place as the hottest year on record. On the global scale, though, 1934 was cooler than it is today, and not even in the top 15 hottest temperatures in the history of record-keeping.

So just come out and say it... You willfully lied by misrepresenting the US temperature record as the Global temperature record.


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OfflineTheCow
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8094305 - 03/02/08 04:51 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Ha this is a great thread


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8094315 - 03/02/08 04:54 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Please keep it civil, folks. (everybody)


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Just another spore in the wind.


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: Seuss]
    #8094341 - 03/02/08 05:01 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Oh, also, from your own article (though I already knew this), the error only applied to the continental united states measurements. The US has weather stations around the globe. NASA and the NOAA independently verifies all temperature data.

As it stands, though, THIS is the updated chart showing global temperatures for the century.



There have been 27 years that were hotter than 1934. Those years are made up of (surprise surprise), the last 35 years.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/


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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (03/02/08 05:01 PM)


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8094413 - 03/02/08 05:18 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Also, no matter how many news sites people post to disprove the data, the data exists as it is. Stop getting your material from filtered news sites. Here is a direct quote from NASA:

Quote:

This flaw affected temperatures in 2000 and later years by ~0.15°C averaged over the United States and ~0.003°C on global average. Contrary to reports in the media, this minor flaw did not alter the years of record temperature, as shown by comparison here of results with the data flaw ('old analysis') and with the correction ('new analysis').




http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

"[affected temperatures] ~0.003°C on global average."
"[affected temperatures] ~0.003°C on global average."
"[affected temperatures] ~0.003°C on global average."

(just encase anyone is missing it)


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Edited by AnonymousRabbit (03/02/08 05:19 PM)


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8094442 - 03/02/08 05:26 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Here is a much more detailed essay on the error:

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/distro_realdeal.16aug20074.pdf

Here is a direct quote from it:

Quote:

What we have here is a case of dogged contrarians who present results in ways intended to deceive the public into believing that the changes have greater significance than reality. They aim to make a mountain out of a mole hill. I believe that these people are not stupid, instead they seek to create a brouhaha and muddy the waters in the climate change story. They seem to know exactly what they are doing and believe they can get away with it, because the public does not have the time, inclination, and training to discern what is a significant change with regard to the global warming issue.




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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8094599 - 03/02/08 06:13 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

I am going to repeat my position.
The data of Hansen et al in the US have been corrected downward. The data from the US stations are more reliable than from elsewhere. Hansen has been shown to be unreliable ( http://www.climateaudit.org/?cat=50 ). Even if it IS currently warmer now than in the, say, eighties there is NOTHING UNIQUE about it or even, in many scientist's opinions, particularly remarkable. It has been warmer in the past. It is a minor anomaly. Very minor. It can ENTIRELY be explained by solar activity, if you should be so inclined, although that probably isn't the only cause. There is no proof whatsoever that CO2 concentration CAUSES an increase in global temperature, it is a miniscule portion of the atmosphere, the ocean is a huge CO2 sink, and the absorption value of CO2 maxes out rather rapidly. There is a decade long temperature trend DOWN, which you seem to poopoo.


Temperatures in recent period peaked TEN years ago. CO2 continues to rise(1998 366.5-2007 383.72 ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_annmean_mlo.txt almost 5%). Why has there been a ten year CO2 rise with a ten year temperature fall?



There is no doubt that CO2 is rising. There is no doubt that the temperature has shown a general rising trend for a century. This has amounted to approximately 0.6C. There is no doubt that this is quite small and can be explained entirely by factors other than CO2 concentration. It may well have already reversed itself in the absence of a similar CO2 reversal.


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Invisiblejoker_man
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8094678 - 03/02/08 06:33 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

It can ENTIRELY be explained by solar activity




No.

Quote:

There is a decade long temperature trend DOWN




No.

Quote:

There is no doubt that this is quite small and can be explained entirely by factors other than CO2 concentration




No.

Quote:

It may well have already reversed itself in the absence of a similar CO2 reversal.




:what: What are you trying to say? Are you just making shit up?


zappaisgod, look at the last few pages of this thread. I don't need to elaborate on why you're wrong.


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Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole


Registered: 02/11/04
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: AnonymousRabbit]
    #8094691 - 03/02/08 06:34 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

supernovasky said:
Here is a much more detailed essay on the error:

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/distro_realdeal.16aug20074.pdf

Here is a direct quote from it:

Quote:

What we have here is a case of dogged contrarians who present results in ways intended to deceive the public into believing that the changes have greater significance than reality. They aim to make a mountain out of a mole hill. I believe that these people are not stupid, instead they seek to create a brouhaha and muddy the waters in the climate change story. They seem to know exactly what they are doing and believe they can get away with it, because the public does not have the time, inclination, and training to discern what is a significant change with regard to the global warming issue.







That one's a real pisser. Who wrote it? I particularly liked the part about the Onondaga Indians. And this;

Quote:

"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, . . . are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children."




Oh the liddle chilluns. Who wrote it? It doesn't say in the PDF.

Quite the Hansen defender, huh? Really takes aim at those ankle biting Skeptics, doesn't he?


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OfflineTheCow
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8094718 - 03/02/08 06:41 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

straaaaaaaawwwwwww man
:smilingpuppy:


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OfflineAnonymousRabbit
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #8094722 - 03/02/08 06:43 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

I can care less about Hansen.

I care about demonizing good science and the substitution of junk science for it. I care when the general public, who cannot use their limited amount of time to properly research the issue and gain the training necessary to understand the complexities, are mislead by people who deceive and push junk science.

In your case, you attempted to post outright erroneous data in the form of saying that 1930s were the hottest. This has been disproven (not just by Hansen, but the entire GISS dataset and the body of research in climatology). Your only rationale for saying that 1930 was hotter was a temperature record of the 48 contiguous states. You were wrong.

The earth is still heating. Anyone can view the data.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Global warming is killing us all! AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! [Re: joker_man]
    #8094727 - 03/02/08 06:44 PM (15 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

joker_man said:
Quote:

It can ENTIRELY be explained by solar activity




No.




Yes, if you should be so inclined.  El Nino might have something to do with 1998, too.  Like I said, other factors may be involved
Quote:



Quote:

There is a decade long temperature trend DOWN




No.




Well yes, Phred (I think it was Phred) posted it and your graphs show a peak in 1998.  It is now 10 years later.  The temperature has gone down since.
Quote:



Quote:

There is no doubt that this is quite small and can be explained entirely by factors other than CO2 concentration




No.




0.6C is very small.  Since you have utterly failed to provide a causal connection, as has everyone else, there probably are some other causes.  Like solar, ocean currents, urbanization.
Quote:



Quote:

It may well have already reversed itself in the absence of a similar CO2 reversal.




:what: What are you trying to say? Are you just making shit up?




Nope.  CO2 has gone up almost 5% since 1998 (see my link) but temperature has declined slightly.  Neither of those are made up.
Quote:




zappaisgod, look at the last few pages of this thread. I don't need to elaborate on why you're wrong.




No, you don't, because I'm not.


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