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OfflineMadtowntripper
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US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago
    #7710781 - 12/03/07 12:38 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

ASHINGTON (CNN) -- Iran halted work toward a nuclear weapon under international scrutiny in 2003 and is unlikely to be able to produce enough enriched uranium for a bomb until 2010 to 2015, a U.S. intelligence report says.


A declassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate found with "high confidence" that the Islamic republic stopped an effort to develop nuclear weapons in the fall of 2003.

The estimate is less severe than a 2005 report that judged the Iranian leadership was "determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure."

But the latest report says Iran -- which declared its ability to produced enriched uranium for a civilian energy program in 2006 -- could reverse that decision and eventually produce a nuclear weapon if it wanted to do so.

Enriched uranium at low concentrations can be used to fuel nuclear power plants, but much higher concentrations are needed to yield a nuclear explosion.

"We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely," the report says. A more likely time frame for that production is between 2010 and 2015, it concludes.

Iran has insisted its nuclear program is strictly aimed at producing electricity, and the country has refused the U.N. Security Council's demand to halt its enrichment program.
Monday's report represents the consensus of U.S. intelligence agencies. It suggests that a combination of "threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige and goals for regional influence in other ways," could persuade the Iranian leadership to continue its suspension of nuclear weapons research.

Available intelligence suggests the Iranian leadership is guided "by a cost-benefit approach," not a headlong rush to develop a bomb, the report concludes.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, has reported that Iran is cooperating with inspectors by providing access to declared nuclear material, documents and facilities. However, the agency also said Iran is withholding information in other areas, and as a result, the IAEA's knowledge about the status of the program is "diminishing."

Iran says its uranium enrichment work is allowed under the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Security Council has passed two rounds of sanctions against Tehran, but Washington missed its goal of reaching consensus on tighter restrictions by the end of November, the State Department said last week.

U.S. National Security adviser Stephen Hadley expressed hope after Monday's announcement, but he said Iran remains a serious threat.

"The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically -- without the use of force -- as the administration has been trying to do," Hadley said in a statement.

"But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem."

The report comes amid widespread accusations that the Bush administration is attempting to maneuver the United States into a conflict with Iran, which it accuses of meddling in the war in Iraq. In October, the United States designated elements of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps as supporters of terrorism.

NIEs examine current capabilities and vulnerabilities and, perhaps more importantly, consider future developments. Policymakers usually request the estimates, but the intelligence community also can initiate them. E-mail to a friend E-mail to a friend




Hopefully this puts an end to any immediate invasion by Bush & Co. I'm not sure who the new President will be in 2010, but I can't see anyone MORE likely to run off to war on bad information.


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #7711103 - 12/03/07 01:54 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

hope this news helps gas prices.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #7711153 - 12/03/07 02:09 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

Knowing the quality of US intel this probably means we can expect to see a surprise nuclear strike from the Iranians just before Christmas :smile:


--------------------
Always Smi2le


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: GazzBut]
    #7712168 - 12/03/07 05:59 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

This guy has thought about this far more than I have and has some good points, especially about timing.
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/016195.php


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InvisibleYidakiMan
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: zappaisgod]
    #7715226 - 12/04/07 12:34 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

Pretty interesting that Iraq duped the world into believing he had WMDs in order to protect himself from Iran. And less than a year after his regime was toppled, Iran stopped work on a nuke.


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InvisibleSlashOZ
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: YidakiMan]
    #7715837 - 12/04/07 02:55 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

that blogger is right! violating other country's sovereignty at will based upon whether or not the U.S. feels threatened is a good thing. just imagine the glorious world that we might be living in if every country invaded another country that they disagree with or feel threatened by. not to mention that this information completely validates the war in iraq right??? so who cares if Iraq didn't have wmd's we at least stopped Iran from getting them right?

wasn't another much more brutal regime working towards attaining nuclear weapons at this same time? oh yeah it was North Korea. That little fool was even threatening our ally Japan. lets just thank god that even though idiots (putin, bush, NK guy, Pakistan guy, the chinese) control much of the world's nuclear stockpiles that we haven't had a full blown nuclear war, yet.


--------------------
"Life sucks but in this really beautiful way" - Axl Rose
"Life's a bitch and then you die that's why we get high cuz you never know when you're gonna go." - NAS
"When people don't know what you're about they put you down and shut you out" - Black Sabbath
"An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind" - Gandhi
"Look up at me I am God, look down on me and I am evil, look at me I am you." - Charles Manson.
"Don't question my reality." - Me (as far as I know)


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #7716194 - 12/04/07 04:09 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

Surprise. Surprise.

Not too long ago President Bush was hyping Iran and WWIII..we heard talk about using tactical nukes.. he has been trying to get everyone all hysterical over Iran and now this.

No one should believe a word this damn fool says or his puppet-master, Dick Cheney. When it comes to pre-war intelligence they have ZERO credibility. Take anything they say with a mountain of salt and a gallon of Pepto Bismal.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #7716764 - 12/04/07 06:25 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

> US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago

Actually, that is not what it says... "the latest National Intelligence Estimate found with "high confidence" that the Islamic republic stopped an effort to develop nuclear weapons in the fall of 2003". Mis-characterizing intelligence reports is how we ended up in Iraq.


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Just another spore in the wind.


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: Seuss]
    #7719079 - 12/05/07 10:31 AM (16 years, 1 month ago)

I'm sorry, I can't make a post title long enough to cover every contingency.  I think it gets the idea across better than...

"US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Maybe Could Have Possibly Stopped Hypothetical Maybe Peaceful Maybe Weaponized Nuclear Program At Some Point In The Past Several Years"

:grin:


--------------------
After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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Offlinegluke bastid
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: Seuss]
    #7719093 - 12/05/07 10:36 AM (16 years, 1 month ago)

Where is the mis-characterization?


--------------------
:hst:
Society in every form is a blessing,
but government at its best is but a necessary evil
 
- Thomas Paine


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: gluke bastid]
    #7719102 - 12/05/07 10:38 AM (16 years, 1 month ago)

> Where is the mis-characterization?

High confidence is not fact.


--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.


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Offlinegluke bastid
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: Seuss]
    #7719211 - 12/05/07 11:08 AM (16 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
> Where is the mis-characterization?

High confidence is not fact.




I agree. I still don't see how madtowntripper mischaracterized the report with the title.


--------------------
:hst:
Society in every form is a blessing,
but government at its best is but a necessary evil
 
- Thomas Paine


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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: gluke bastid]
    #7719940 - 12/05/07 02:38 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

I still don't see how madtowntripper mischaracterized the report with the title.




Me either. A link to the story would have been nice though just for reference purposes.

This is a huge story with enormous implications. It appears that the Bush admin got caught with their hands in the cookie jar only this time prior to a war.

Of course I expect them to stupidly plunge full-speed ahead anyway as history shows they merely shove aside inconvenient information in favor of what they planned to do all along for their own reasons ala' Iraq. They normally begin with a decision and find facts to support it instead of the other way around like honest people.

Hopefully this expose' will be enough to stop them. It will be interesting to see what oil prices do over the next few weeks as the "fear premium" factored into oil prices begins to melt away.

Also, this may squash Bush's proposed European missle shield which was being sold as a defense against Iranian attack in the event of a war.

We shall see..


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


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InvisibleDisco Cat
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #7720046 - 12/05/07 03:05 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

/sarcasm: What a total suprise, who'd have possibly thought?

That any nuke ambitions Iran had were scrapped the moment international attention came to them, that they have not been, nor are building a bomb, and that it'd be moronic to think they would try and seek one in the near future... Why does all this sound so familiar, where have I heard these things before? Oh right, from me.


Quote:

Disco Cat said:
I'm seeing a pattern here, with my application of reasoning and logical thought providing accurate conclusions.




I've been getting some good use out of this quote.


Anyways,

I think a reason why this has been declassified might be that the US knows attacking Iran isn't a viable option, and that if they backed down from attack due to fears of Iranian response it would bolster US opponents in the region, as well as Iran's reputation, and so they'd rather appear to have made a data mistake than to appear weak or afraid. If they were fully confident in attack this probably would not have been revealed - especially considering the report has been in its present form for more than six months.


Edited by Disco Cat (12/05/07 03:49 PM)


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OfflineLearyfanS
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #7720359 - 12/05/07 04:10 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

I can't believe that they tried it again.  I just can not believe it.  :sad:








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--------------------------------


Mp3 of the month:  The Apple-Glass Cyndrome - Someday



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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: Learyfan]
    #7720813 - 12/05/07 05:38 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

Not so fast.


Quote:

NIE: An Abrupt About-Face

As many recognize, the latest NIE on Iran’s nuclear weapons program directly contradicts what the U.S. Intelligence Community was saying just two years previously. And it appears that this about-face was very recent. How recent?

Consider that on July 11, 2007, roughly four or so months prior to the most recent NIE’s publication, Deputy Director of Analysis Thomas Fingar gave the following testimony before the House Armed Services Committee (emphasis added):

Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us. The United States’ concerns about Iran are shared by many nations, including many of Iran’s neighbors. Iran is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations and working to delay and diminish the impact of UNSC sanctions than in reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution. We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons--despite its international obligations and international pressure. This is a grave concern to the other countries in the region whose security would be threatened should Iran acquire nuclear weapons.

This paragraph appeared under the subheading: "Iran Assessed As Determined to Develop Nuclear Weapons." And the entirety of Fingar’s 22-page testimony was labeled "Information as of July 11, 2007." No part of it is consistent with the latest NIE, in which our spooks tell us Iran suspended its covert nuclear weapons program in 2003 "primarily in response to international pressure" and they "do not know whether (Iran) currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."

The inconsistencies are more troubling when we realize that, according to the Wall Street Journal, Thomas Fingar is one of the three officials who were responsible for crafting the latest NIE. The Journal cites "an intelligence source" as describing Fingar and his two colleagues as "hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials." (The New York Sun drew attention to one of Fingar’s colleagues yesterday.)

So, if it is true that Dr. Fingar played a leading role in crafting this latest NIE, then we are left with serious questions:

* Why did your opinion change so drastically in just four months time?

* Is the new intelligence or analysis really that good? Is it good enough to overturn your previous assessments? Or, has it never really been good enough to make a definitive assessment at all?

* Did your political or ideological leanings, or your policy preferences, or those of your colleagues, influence your opinion in any way?

Many in the mainstream press have been willing to cite this latest NIE unquestioningly. Perhaps they should start asking some pointed questions. (Don’t hold your breath.)

Posted by Thomas Joscelyn on December 5, 2007 12:01 PM | Permalink





http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2007/12/nie_an_abrupt_aboutface.asp

Dr. Fingar holds this job.
Quote:


The Office of the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis (DDNI/A) has responsibility for enhancing the quality, timeliness, and utility of analytic support to intelligence consumers. DDNI/A's approach for achieving this goal is to increase expertise and improve analytic tradecraft at individual, agency, and Community levels through specialization, collaboration, and cross-fertilization.

The Deputy Director for Analysis serves concurrently as the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and also manages the production of the President's Daily Brief.



http://www.dni.gov/aboutODNI/organization/Analysis.htm

Go here, for a Wall Sreet Journal editorial about this as well:
http://pundita.blogspot.com/2007/12/yikes-thomas-fingar-one-of-three-main.html

I know it's a blog but he has the whole editorial up and the WSJ is a subscription site.


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: zappaisgod]
    #7721753 - 12/05/07 08:28 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)








.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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OfflineBrAiN
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7721820 - 12/05/07 08:40 PM (16 years, 1 month ago)

Nothing is gonna happen with the U.S. and Iran.. ever

It's just a giant game of Chicken

And the first person to pussy out and start some shit is gonna get it from the international community. So by that fact, neither side can act and both sides KNOW they can't do shit.

Two douche bags fencing with their penises and who are wrapped up in who's dicks are winning so much that they totally miss the fact that touching pee pee's makes you GAY in the first place

End of story.. that sums it up. I'm right any anyone who disagrees is wrong and if you think I AM wrong on this than you can drink my urine. Discussion over.

NEXT TOPIC!


Edited by BrAiN (12/05/07 08:47 PM)


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: BrAiN]
    #7723734 - 12/06/07 09:47 AM (16 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

BrAiN said:
Nothing is gonna happen with the U.S. and Iran.. ever

It's just a giant game of Chicken

And the first person to pussy out and start some shit is gonna get it from the international community. So by that fact, neither side can act and both sides KNOW they can't do shit.

Two douche bags fencing with their penises and who are wrapped up in who's



It's "whose", you are wrong.
Quote:


dicks are winning so much that they totally miss the fact that touching pee pee's makes you GAY in the first place

End of story.. that sums it up. I'm right any


It's "and". You are wrong
Quote:

anyone who disagrees is wrong and if you think I AM wrong on this than you can drink my urine. Discussion over.

NEXT TOPIC!




Fuck off. The international community is a parliament of whores. They are disunited and feckless. And Iran was even by this political document seeking nukes up until they got caught. When the spotlight moves away again they will try. Again. And this is not a cockfight, junior. Nobody gets hurt in a cock fight, just embarrassed.


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OfflineBrAiN
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Re: US Nat'l Intel Report Says Iran Stopped Nuclear Program 4 Yrs Ago [Re: zappaisgod]
    #7723758 - 12/06/07 09:56 AM (16 years, 1 month ago)

Man, looking back it's really obvious when I'm posting while drunk :P I'm an even worse speller and/or I give zappa horrible user ratings

Sober now but I still think shit ain't gonna happen. It's just a giant dance.

Althought if Thompson or Guliani gets elected they might jump the gun and bomb the fuck outta Iran. I doubt Romney would have the gonads to do it. He's too busy, greasing his hair 5 hours out of every day.

I can actually see Thompson putting on a cowboy hat and riding a nuke all Dr Strangelove style as it drops on top of Mecca :wink:


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