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Silversoul
Rhizome


Registered: 01/01/05
Posts: 23,576
Loc: The Barricades
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: Silversoul]
#7652518 - 11/18/07 08:22 PM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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BTW, if you watched Diploid's link, you might want to check this out:
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Edited by Silversoul (11/18/07 09:52 PM)
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VisionsToReality
RIBBONS


Registered: 09/22/07
Posts: 1,083
Last seen: 16 years, 1 month
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: trendal]
#7652546 - 11/18/07 08:32 PM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
trendal said: This graph doesn't make any sense if you are arguing from a stance of "CO2 causes warming". It's not that hard to see...just look at when the CO2 goes up with respect to temperature.
The CO2 is actually lagging the temperature changes by a few hundred to few thousand years. If the CO2 goes up following the temperature, it can't very well be causing the rise in temperature, can it?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/6/63/Co2-temperature-plot.svg/800px-Co2-temperature-plot.svg.png
The climate does not consist two variables - CO2 and temp It consists of all the organisms and dynamics of the planet COMBINED! Obviously there will be discrepancies, but anyone can see there is a clear relation, more clear than one would ever imagine actually.
-------------------- Life is one big road with lots of signs, So when you're ridin' through the ruts, Don't you complicate your mind. Flee from hate, mischief and jealousy Don't bury your thoughts, Put your vision to reality, yeah!
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Diploid
Cuban



Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: Silversoul]
#7652848 - 11/18/07 09:58 PM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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Both sides make compelling arguments. The jury is still out.
-------------------- Republican Values: 1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you. 2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child. 3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer. 4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.
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Silversoul
Rhizome


Registered: 01/01/05
Posts: 23,576
Loc: The Barricades
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: Diploid]
#7652863 - 11/18/07 10:04 PM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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"The jury" will probably be out for a long time to come, as it's not easy to discern with a great degree of certainty the man-made contribution to the trend, and any conclusions will always be contestable. I think the issue at hand is whether or not the probability of an anthropogenic cause to global warming is high enough to warrant cautionary measures by government and by business. I believe it is, and it seems that the majority of climate scientists agree with that assessment as well.
Fortunately, even for those that doubt the majority position, the case of peak oil and petro-politics is sufficient reason to support many of those measures anyway.
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Edited by Silversoul (11/18/07 10:12 PM)
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VisionsToReality
RIBBONS


Registered: 09/22/07
Posts: 1,083
Last seen: 16 years, 1 month
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: Diploid]
#7652866 - 11/18/07 10:08 PM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Diploid said: Both sides make compelling arguments. The jury is still out.
This is what this entire thread boils down to: The majority of the world's most credible scientists are to be trusted for making decisions, especially policy decisions. NOBODY else should be trusted. Decisions have to be made presently. We should trust the majority of scientists, not the FEW that disagree. End of story. Period.
-------------------- Life is one big road with lots of signs, So when you're ridin' through the ruts, Don't you complicate your mind. Flee from hate, mischief and jealousy Don't bury your thoughts, Put your vision to reality, yeah!
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trendal
J♠



Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: VisionsToReality]
#7653561 - 11/19/07 05:38 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
VisionsToReality said: The climate does not consist two variables - CO2 and temp It consists of all the organisms and dynamics of the planet COMBINED! Obviously there will be discrepancies, but anyone can see there is a clear relation, more clear than one would ever imagine actually.
Yes that's right...just ignore the facts. Who needs something as silly as The Truth, when you have blind faith running the show!
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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VisionsToReality
RIBBONS


Registered: 09/22/07
Posts: 1,083
Last seen: 16 years, 1 month
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: trendal]
#7653569 - 11/19/07 05:47 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
trendal said:
Quote:
VisionsToReality said: The climate does not consist two variables - CO2 and temp It consists of all the organisms and dynamics of the planet COMBINED! Obviously there will be discrepancies, but anyone can see there is a clear relation, more clear than one would ever imagine actually.
Yes that's right...just ignore the facts. Who needs something as silly as The Truth, when you have blind faith running the show!
No layman has the ability to understand the complexities. You REALLY think YOU are well versed enough to do that? Please, get off the high horse. None of us can.
For you to say temp and co2 are going to be perfectly related like x vs y, with no other impacts from other variables, is RIDICULOUS!
-------------------- Life is one big road with lots of signs, So when you're ridin' through the ruts, Don't you complicate your mind. Flee from hate, mischief and jealousy Don't bury your thoughts, Put your vision to reality, yeah!
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trendal
J♠



Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: VisionsToReality]
#7653573 - 11/19/07 05:51 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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No layman has the ability to understand the complexities. You REALLY think YOU are well versed enough to do that? Please, get off the high horse. None of us can.
I didn't say that...
For you to say temp and co2 are going to be perfectly related like x vs y, with no other impacts from other variables, is RIDICULOUS!
That would be a silly thing to say...if I said it.
Stop putting words in my mouth.
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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trendal
J♠



Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: trendal]
#7653576 - 11/19/07 05:53 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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I simply pointed out that the graph you were using did not show what you were saying it was showing.
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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VisionsToReality
RIBBONS


Registered: 09/22/07
Posts: 1,083
Last seen: 16 years, 1 month
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: trendal]
#7653581 - 11/19/07 05:55 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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Yes and you are saying it's not a x happens and y happens thing. It is not, because there are other variables.
-------------------- Life is one big road with lots of signs, So when you're ridin' through the ruts, Don't you complicate your mind. Flee from hate, mischief and jealousy Don't bury your thoughts, Put your vision to reality, yeah!
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trendal
J♠



Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: VisionsToReality]
#7653583 - 11/19/07 06:00 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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Like what? 
Care to tell me what those other variables are?
Care to explain to me why the graph of co2 follows - and not precedes - the graph of the temperature?
And don't say "I can't know what they are"...because that is just so much bullshit.
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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Diploid
Cuban



Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: VisionsToReality]
#7653584 - 11/19/07 06:00 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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No layman has the ability to understand the complexities. You REALLY think YOU are well versed enough to do that? Please, get off the high horse. None of us can.
Wow. The pot calls the kettle black.
-------------------- Republican Values: 1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you. 2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child. 3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer. 4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.
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trendal
J♠



Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: VisionsToReality]
#7653586 - 11/19/07 06:01 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
VisionsToReality said: Yes and you are saying it's not a x happens and y happens thing. It is not, because there are other variables.
I wonder...why did you post that graph? If there are so many "other variables" involved, you certainly wouldn't be trying to claim that co2 precedes temperature...would you?
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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Diploid
Cuban



Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: VisionsToReality]
#7653596 - 11/19/07 06:10 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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For you to say temp and co2 are going to be perfectly related like x vs y, with no other impacts from other variables, is RIDICULOUS!
YOU are the one who's saying this by posting that chart. Look at it closely and see what Trendal is pointing out:
Start with the first big peak at 625 Kyears. The red is temperature and blue is CO2. Notice a sharp drop in temperature BEFORE the sharp drop in CO2.
Now look at the dropping trend at 500 Kyears. Again, the temperature drops FIRST, and then the CO2 drops.
Then again at 475 Kyears. The temperature rises BEFORE the CO2 rises.
This theme repeats all throughout that graph. The temperature change LEADS the CO2 change.
Do you even look at the evidence you use to (not) support your arguments? That chart undermines everything you've been harping on this whole thread. If you're going to argue, it would help your position if you posted charts that support your statements. The one you posted contradicts you.
-------------------- Republican Values: 1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you. 2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child. 3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer. 4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.
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VisionsToReality
RIBBONS


Registered: 09/22/07
Posts: 1,083
Last seen: 16 years, 1 month
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: Diploid]
#7653631 - 11/19/07 06:38 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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What I am saying is there is a clear and distinct pattern but the multitude of variables in the environment is what causes the unsuspected lags in temp vs co2. Nothing is going to be perfectly related, this is a gigantic system we've yet to understand fully. But we can tell that there IS a clear patter, we KNOW the theoretical data of the affects of CO2, and we are observing these theoretical datum's empirical evidence which positively correlates with the suspected theoretical affects of CO2.
You guys REALLY think the two are going to be perfectly correlated if my side is right? No way. It will NOT be. Science is not clear cut, science generally strays from our common sense, etc
-------------------- Life is one big road with lots of signs, So when you're ridin' through the ruts, Don't you complicate your mind. Flee from hate, mischief and jealousy Don't bury your thoughts, Put your vision to reality, yeah!
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Diploid
Cuban



Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: VisionsToReality]
#7653671 - 11/19/07 07:02 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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Nothing is going to be perfectly related, this is a gigantic system we've yet to understand fully.
Well, now you're making some sense. But a few minutes ago you were saying:
Quote:
End of story. Period.
It will be the end of the story when we DO understand the system. As you say yourself, there are still big gaps in our knowledge, so it's NOT the end of the story; the jury is still out.
But we can tell that there IS a clear patter, we KNOW the theoretical data of the affects of CO2
The theoretical expectation is that CO2 rise will happen BEFORE temperature rise. Your chart shows that the opposite happens. Temperature rises FIRST, and then CO2 rise follows.
So again, we don't have a clear enough understanding to explain that discrepancy, let alone say that we're at the "end of the story".
The jury is still out.
You guys REALLY think the two are going to be perfectly correlated
They are nearly-perfectly correlated, only problem is they correlate in the wrong order.
Why is that? Well, we don't know, so the jury is still out.
-------------------- Republican Values: 1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you. 2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child. 3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer. 4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.
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VisionsToReality
RIBBONS


Registered: 09/22/07
Posts: 1,083
Last seen: 16 years, 1 month
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: Diploid]
#7653681 - 11/19/07 07:10 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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I wasn't saying end of story with regard to global warming. I was saying it in the context of relying on policy decisions from the majority of science.
And what I just repeated and will repeat again is that the env. doesn't consist of just temp and co2, it has other variables, which throws the graph out. Read that again, because I've repeated it for what seems to be the third time.
Why do they correlate in the "wrong order?" Because the climate has more than 2 variables. See?
-------------------- Life is one big road with lots of signs, So when you're ridin' through the ruts, Don't you complicate your mind. Flee from hate, mischief and jealousy Don't bury your thoughts, Put your vision to reality, yeah!
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Diploid
Cuban



Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: VisionsToReality]
#7653698 - 11/19/07 07:20 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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that the env. doesn't consist of just temp and co2, it has other variables, which throws the graph out.
It throws ALL our science out of whack because we don't fully understand what's happening. Until we do, you can't say that global warming is definitely anthropogenic.
Why do they correlate in the "wrong order?" Because the climate has more than 2 variables. See?
What I see is that we don't yet know how many extra variables are involved or fully understand how they affect the climate. Drawing conclusions with such a big gap in our knowledge is way premature.
Should we be cautious? Should we takes steps to limit greenhouse gas emissions? Sure, not only because that makes sense even if warming wasn't happening, but because it's at worst erring on the side of caution.
But the hysterical calls for immediate draconian measures to cut CO2 emissions are out of proportion to our current understanding of the problem.
-------------------- Republican Values: 1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you. 2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child. 3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer. 4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.
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VisionsToReality
RIBBONS


Registered: 09/22/07
Posts: 1,083
Last seen: 16 years, 1 month
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: Diploid]
#7653754 - 11/19/07 07:40 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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You are missing the point. All current credible scientists agree that MOST LIKELY, GW is caused by humans. So that's what we have to go on now. Not layman like you that think they know better. So THAT is what we base our policy on - the majority of credible scientists that have reviewed the data.
Agree?
-------------------- Life is one big road with lots of signs, So when you're ridin' through the ruts, Don't you complicate your mind. Flee from hate, mischief and jealousy Don't bury your thoughts, Put your vision to reality, yeah!
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machination
Stranger
Registered: 09/17/07
Posts: 705
Loc: Hringhorni
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Re: UN declares global warming unequivocal, saying abrupt warming & irreversible changes loom [Re: VisionsToReality]
#7653775 - 11/19/07 07:52 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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we are conditioning the climate, uncontrollably? to what end is fear used to promote change?
-------------------- "Have you not learned that your word is bond? Yes, my word is bond and bond is life, I shall give my life, before my word shall fail."
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