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ZippoZ
Knomadic



Registered: 06/17/03
Posts: 13,227
Loc: Pongyang, North Korea
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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: CosmicFool]
#7578431 - 10/30/07 09:11 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
I never said it was unbeatable but my system still works w/ 0 and 00 they don't change a single thing I still have a 1 in 3 chance of hitting my #s and I still get a 2:1 pay out when I do.
no you dont have a 1 in 3 chance of hitting,
youre chance of hitting a 2:1 pay off bet is actually 12:38 or 1 in 3 and 2/3. if im doing my math right
there are 38 numbers on that table, 00 , 0 + 1-36 the house always has an edge on every bet you make on the roulette table, and also every bet on the craps table, and any bet made on any game in the whole casino....
oi.
but realistically i don't think that there has been an independent review of craps strategy as i am proposing here, ever done. and as i would be doing the rolling i think that after 130,000 some rolls i would have a damn good chance of being able to throw them quite well.
also as for the distance that the dice would need to be thrown, that can be manipulated by ones position at the craps table... basically being right next to the stick man will give you the shortest distance to throw. thus less distance to control.
another thing that i once experienced at a late night road side casino is that on rare occasion smaller casino's will only use half of a craps table, putting a wooden block across the middle of the table so that one casino employee can run the game. setting and controlling the dice in a situation like this would be immensely easier with only 3 feet to throw the dice. I only wish i remembered where the hell that had happened, somewhere in northern Nevada i'm sure.....
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
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CosmicFool
Psychoholic


Registered: 05/14/06
Posts: 9,581
Loc: 203
Last seen: 21 days, 11 hours
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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: ZippoZ]
#7578621 - 10/30/07 09:57 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Capatalistc nomad said: no you dont have a 1 in 3 chance of hitting,
youre chance of hitting a 2:1 pay off bet is actually 12:38 or 1 in 3 and 2/3. if im doing my math right
there are 38 numbers on that table, 00 , 0 + 1-36 the house always has an edge on every bet you make on the roulette table, and also every bet on the craps table, and any bet made on any game in the whole casino....
0-36 (in European table) 0-36 + 00 (in American table) ?-?? (French table) OK there is a fraction of a chance, I simplified things because most people find it hard to understand. I could take the fraction into account (I choose not to) and I can play any other bet on the table too but that also requires adding fractions to each bet (still possible) I usually go make $25 at a table (just 5 wins) and leave that table then I may or may not play roulette again that night but I end up w/ a free night at the casino
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28roulette_system%29 Suppose that someone applies the martingale betting system at an American roulette table, with 0 and 00 values; on average, a bet on either red or black will win 18 times out of 38. If the player's initial bankroll is $150 and the betting unit is $10, he can afford 4 losing bets in a row (of $10, $20, $40, and $80) before he runs out of money. If any of these 4 bets wins he wins $10 and wins back any past losses. The chance of losing 4 bets in a row (and therefore losing the complete $150) is (20/38)4 = 7.67%. The remaining 92.3% of the time, the player will win $10. We will call this one round (playing until you have lost 4 times or until you win, whichever comes first). If you play repeated rounds with this strategy then your average earnings will be (0.923·$10) − (0.0767·$150) = −$2.275 per round. Therefore, you lose an average of $2.275 each round. However, if the gambler possesses an infinite amount of money, the expected return is (18/38)*b per roll (where b is the initial bet). With an initial bet of $10, the expected return is thus $4.736 per roll.
"You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it."-Albert Einstein
There is no sure fire way to beat the casino if there was they wouldn't be in business I just do what I can to give myself an edge,... It's sounds like you're trying to do the same
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ZippoZ
Knomadic



Registered: 06/17/03
Posts: 13,227
Loc: Pongyang, North Korea
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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: CosmicFool]
#7578655 - 10/30/07 10:05 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Because the betting limits reduce the casino's short term variance, the martingale system itself does not pose a threat to the casino, and many will encourage its use, knowing that they have the house advantage no matter when or how much is wagered.
from the same article. overall regardless of a betting system on a truly random game of chance the house will always win. regardless were talking about craps here, good ol dice.
mark my words, if i have over $50,000 to blow, i will be buying a craps table for around $3000 and preforming this study on it.
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
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truekimbo2
Cya later, friends.



Registered: 12/08/02
Posts: 9,234
Loc: ny
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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: ZippoZ]
#7579131 - 10/31/07 12:39 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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also, martingale systems don't work because some percent of the time you lose every time you double your bet up to the cap of the table, and that exactly evens out however much you would make every time you don't get a losing streak, then you minus the house edge and your'e still losing money.
-------------------- You can check the last post in my journal for contact info.
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Plok
Life is fractal


Registered: 09/08/04
Posts: 1,152
Loc: Los Angeles
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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: ZippoZ]
#7580336 - 10/31/07 11:35 AM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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Capatalistc nomad said:
Quote:
but realistically i don't think that there has been an independent review of craps strategy as i am proposing here, ever done. and as i would be doing the rolling i think that after 130,000 some rolls i would have a damn good chance of being able to throw them quite well.
Did you not see my message? This idea already exists. There are several books written about it and even some seminars. You don't need to do all this research yourself because it has already been done. Look up "The Craps Underground" and Golden Touch Craps to see what I mean.
I played at a table completely full of dice setters one time, while I was at the seminar. It was pretty damn cool. We all won but not crazy amounts.
I am still friends with one of the guys who runs the seminar. They go to Vegas regularly to do this. They make supplemental income but it is extremely volatile and they don't make a living from it. This dude has a full size craps table in his house that he practices with almost every day.
-------------------- Just say NO to the War on Drugs.
Edited by Plok (10/31/07 11:36 AM)
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kake
The answer to1984 is 1776.




Registered: 05/06/99
Posts: 2,782
Loc: The 66th harmonic
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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: CosmicFool]
#7585918 - 11/01/07 10:30 PM (16 years, 2 months ago) |
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CosmicFool, you truly are a cosmic fool!
The house has the advantage, NOT YOU.
-------------------- The answer to 1984 is 1776.
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