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ZippoZ
Knomadic



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A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table
#7574883 - 10/29/07 10:45 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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over the years of traveling through Nevada, i have stopped at a fair share of casinos, and have heard strategy and superstitions of every type.
The bottom official story seems to be that there is no real way to over come the house edge, with the rare exception of cheaters and excessively smart people, the MIT blackjack team to name one in particular.
So today a friend and I started discussing the concept of dice controll, physically setting the dice before throwing them to gain a higher incidence of a certain number.
this lead to me considering scientifically prove that dice control is possible, or not. In other words, a controlled expirement
first i needed to calculate the number of starting configurations for the dice...
one die has 6 numbers. for each of the 6 numbers, it can be rotated 4 different ways so that a certain number is showing on the 'back' side of the die.
that would leave each individual number on the dice with 4 ways it could be shown. thus a single die with 24 possible configurations (4x6) multiplying this by 2 dice would lead to 576 possible 2 dice combinations (24x24)
now to test the theory we would also have to include a number of different techniques for throwing the dice. For arguments sake, we will consider 4 different techniques for throwing the dice, the techniques are somewhat irrelevant for this discussion.
This would leave us with 1304 individual throws of the dice, throwing each one of the 576 individual configurations of a pair of dice, once with each technique.
however to develop any sort of a trend, we would have to throw the dice many times, Im going to go ahead and assume that 100 throws per configuration, per method, would suffice to see if any of the configurations and dice settings showed a higher or lower than average percentage of any particular number. however that amounts to a grand total of
130,400 rolls of the dice.
now assuming that it would be possible to make 8 throws a minute, with a 3 person team, one throwing, one setting up the dice, and one removing and recording the results. working 10 hours a day, this could be accomplished in just over 27 days.
Any set of throws that showed a non statistical percentage of a certain numbers appearance could be investigated further.
What do you all think?
I know that this does not take into account the 'pyramid' shaped end of the craps table, nor the obstacles of bets in the way of the dice, however these obstacles are able to be overcome.
also i will throw in this little tid bit of information, it would seem that if one was able to produce one non random roll in a set of 43 rolls that it could eliminate the house edge....
Quote:
There are 36 combinations that can be made from of pair of dice. There are six ways that a seven can be made. This means that with a random roll the mathematical probability of a seven appearing will be once in every six rolls, which is a Sevens to Rolls Ratio (SRR) of 6. The house edge is calculated with this ratio. If you throw the dice 42 times and roll seven 7's you have a Sevens to Rolls Ratio of 6. (42/7 = 6) If however you have one non-random roll and throw seven 7's in 43 rolls you have an SRR of 6.14 this is enough to negate the house edge on the 6and 8 place bets. Just one controlled throw out of every 43 rolls of the dice would eliminate the house edge and yield a break-even game.
What do yall think?
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
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ZippoZ
Knomadic



Registered: 06/17/03
Posts: 13,227
Loc: Pongyang, North Korea
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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: ZippoZ]
#7574965 - 10/29/07 11:23 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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shoot, i put this in science and tech, i think that itll do better in the pub
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
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C20H25N3O
Calico Kahlia


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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: ZippoZ]
#7575022 - 10/29/07 11:44 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Well, I know when I shoot I always line my dice up as a 4 and a 3, in hopes that a 4 and a 3 dont come up. Its more supersition than anything. I was playing online craps tables the other night, and got to thinking. I wondered how often trip sevens, or quad sevens came up. So I manically spent Saturday night writing a java program that recorded the sum of two randomly generated numbers, simulating dice at an online casino.
I found that sevens were called
=================================================== 0x total called: 208118 0 Times AVG DIF: 1
1x total called: 34787 1 Times AVG DIF: 7
2x total called: 5904 2 Times AVG DIF: 42
3x total called: 1001 3 Times AVG DIF: 249
4x total called: 156 4 Times AVG DIF: 1584
5x total called: 30 5 Times AVG DIF: 7965
6x total called: 4 6 Times AVG DIF: 55690
7x total called: 0 8x total called: 0 9x total called: 0
The sample size for that was 250,000. I've run it at 500mil a couple times now, so I've ran the simulation over 2billion times. The results are rather consistent.
I am going to write another progam soon where I calculate profit/or loss with a certain betting start over X rolls. my data thus far says that if I put Y amount of money on 4-10 after a seven is rolled four times in a row I will be up over 1 million rolls. But I haven't taken into account 2,3,11 yet. But maybe I could work out something out. not sure. 5 sevens in a row does happen, and even 10. I know they say that statiscaly a new role reset probablity, but on a sample size of 700million+ I only rolled 10 7's in a roll once, and 9 in a row twice.
I had a paper with all my notes on it somewhere, but I can't find it right now. goodluck. I enjoy a good craps game, with a good shooter. fast paced, and free drinks, and sometimes a good deal of money...sometimes.
-------------------- Calico Kahlia come tell me the news Calamity's waiting for a way to get to her Rosy red and electric blue I bought you a paddle for your paper canoe Say you'll come back when you can Whenever your airplane happens to land Maybe I'll be back here too It all depends on what's with you
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0xYg3n
topdawg



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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: C20H25N3O]
#7575085 - 10/30/07 12:20 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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I'm glad I'm not a gambler...
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supercollider
superconducting



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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: 0xYg3n]
#7575334 - 10/30/07 02:36 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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I'm glad I'm a poker player.
-------------------- Supercollider? I just met her!
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truekimbo2
Cya later, friends.



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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: supercollider]
#7575357 - 10/30/07 03:22 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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yeah there have been people that can control dice rolls. the guy who invented card counting and who figured out how to predict roulete wheels mentions a story about a guy who could do it in one of his books.
the story is:
at an event for people studying gambling, this guy was giving private demonstrations that he could control the dice. he was found dead in an alley later that year.
-------------------- You can check the last post in my journal for contact info.
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kake
The answer to1984 is 1776.




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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: truekimbo2]
#7575862 - 10/30/07 09:43 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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i've heard it can be done, but would take years or practice and is akin to being able to hit a bullseye on a dartboard from 100 feet away.
good luck with all that.
<places hit No Pass bet>
-------------------- The answer to 1984 is 1776.
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trendal
J♠



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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: ZippoZ]
#7575890 - 10/30/07 09:52 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Chaos will tend to make your predictions more and more wrong 
The dice have very small imperfections in them...and that means each die has it's own unique (or almost) way of rolling.
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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Dreamer987
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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: ZippoZ]
#7576171 - 10/30/07 11:09 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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I saw an episode of Masterminds where a guy mastered exactly what your talking about, than started training a team to do it. He said very few people had the skills to pull it off, but a few of them did, and with enough practice they were able to have a huge house advantage The casinoes caught on, but because they were using skill, and not really cheating, they allow this guy to come and clean them out once a year.
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trendal
J♠



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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: Dreamer987]
#7576178 - 10/30/07 11:12 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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That wasn't dice though...it was the MIT Blackjack Team. They one at blackjack by using mathematical rules and learning to count cards.
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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Dreamer987
The VerbalHerman Munster


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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: trendal]
#7576199 - 10/30/07 11:16 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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no it was dice. they'r are a lot of episodes of masterminds that deal with people who have learned how to beat the odds, and cheat the casinos. From the mit blackjack team, to the dice crew, to a guy that jacked millions of dollars from slot machines over the years.
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ZippoZ
Knomadic



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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: Dreamer987]
#7576294 - 10/30/07 11:33 AM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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I would have to agree that it is possible. It is just straight physics.
but i think that a large scale scientific test as i mentioned above, with over 130,000 rolls could lead to a somewhat more solid conclusion.
I wonder how much a casino craps table would cost?
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
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Maverick
Lover of Earwigs!




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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: ZippoZ]
#7576410 - 10/30/07 12:05 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Dice can be rotated 6 times I thought...
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mecreateme
YoUisMEEMsiUoY


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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: ZippoZ]
#7577525 - 10/30/07 04:33 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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I used to know a sleaze ball who rolled his dice in a prescribed manner to get more sixes, fives and fours than any other rolls. There was also a large chance to get either a one or a two, I can't recall.
The way he did it was to grip the dice in between his thumb and index finger with the six facing up. Then when he would throw the die, he would flick it with his grip towards himself all while trying to keep the thing vertically intact, so that the numbers on the sides of the die don't come into play and he has a greater chance of getting one of the higher numbers or in a rare chance one low number. This mutherfucker used this shit all the time and I can't even begin to recount how many sixes this guy rolled. I even took up the practice because it really works, for fun related things that is. In a casino, I doubt it. Do they have some sort of rules as how you can throw the dice?
-------------------- No ONE wants to know the ultimate TRUTH, as soon as YOU find IT out, YOU want to forget IT. You are everything's way of feeling itself. Happy Schwag, everygodly!
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Dreamer987
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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: mecreateme]
#7577554 - 10/30/07 04:41 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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"Do they have some sort of rules as how you can throw the dice?"
They have to bounce off the other side of the table like 4-6 feet away.
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Crystal G



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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: truekimbo2]
#7577573 - 10/30/07 04:47 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
truekimbo2 said: yeah there have been people that can control dice rolls. the guy who invented card counting and who figured out how to predict roulete wheels mentions a story about a guy who could do it in one of his books.
the story is:
at an event for people studying gambling, this guy was giving private demonstrations that he could control the dice. he was found dead in an alley later that year.
LOL for reals, i wouldnt mess with the mafia if i was you bro, fuck gambling
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Plok
Life is fractal


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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: ZippoZ]
#7578088 - 10/30/07 07:17 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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This idea isn't new. But it also isn't well known within the casino industry which makes it alluring.
I've been to a dice control seminar in Tunica, MS. Frank Scoblete, who is the best selling gambling author in the country wrote a book about these guys and what they do. It's pretty remarkable. And the book is a great read. It's called "The Craps Underground".
It's also unbelievably challenging to do right. That's why it's not such a huge threat to the casinos. It takes an enormous amount of practice, a huge bankroll, and an ability to tune out the casino environment while rolling.
-------------------- Just say NO to the War on Drugs.
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CosmicFool
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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: ZippoZ]
#7578177 - 10/30/07 07:39 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Don't forget to take into account for colliding dice and bouncing off a textured backboard.
Most table games have a flaw. I learned this in roulette but I don't see why other table games wouldn't work. In roulette there are 6 bets that are groups of 12 numbers. these bets pay 2:1 and have a 1 in 3 chance of winning so you have decent odds. (this will work with any bet on the table but the math is a little different for each bet)- place a bet (ex. $5)
- LOSE double ur bet ($10)
WIN go back to step 1 you won ($10) that's ($5) to cover ur bet plus ($5) pocket $$$
- LOSE double ur bet ($20)
WIN go back to step 1 you won ($20) that's ($5) to cover ur first bet plus ($10) for ur second bet plus ($5) pocket $$$
continue in similar fashion as long as you can double your losing bet w/ a 2:1 pay out you can come out ahead. Obviously you need enough $$$ to keep doubling your losing bets but w/ a 1 in 3 chance and the law of averages you're in better shape than playing random #s
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Dreamer987
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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: CosmicFool]
#7578232 - 10/30/07 08:01 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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you got an unbeatable system do you? have you taken into acount 0 and 00? Yea...
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CosmicFool
Psychoholic


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Re: A scientific expierement to determine if it is possible to "set dice" at a craps table [Re: Dreamer987]
#7578239 - 10/30/07 08:04 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Dreamer987 said: you got an unbeatable system do you? have you taken into account 0 and 00? Yea...
I never said it was unbeatable but my system still works w/ 0 and 00 they don't change a single thing I still have a 1 in 3 chance of hitting my #s and I still get a 2:1 pay out when I do.
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