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InvisibletrendalM
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Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off
    #7573810 - 10/29/07 05:50 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Why is it that we humans think we'll fare better off than the lowly bacteria? Bacteria is the easiest to watch example of exponential growth (which we are currently under)...but it isn't the only one.

One might say that the bacteria, lacking even a basic nervous system, can't think and so can't see the cliff approaching. Surely no thinking creature would bread out of control and eat all it's food supply...

But then we find other, far more advanced, animals doing the same thing. Everything from urchins to rabbits can and will breed uncontrollably and then die off...often measured in the millions of animals.

I propose that any animal species will, if given the chance, undergo a population explosion and then die off.

I consider humans to be an animal species :wink:


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: trendal]
    #7573847 - 10/29/07 05:58 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

One finds when studying human populations that population growth accelerates rapidly during industrialization but then levels off or even declines(as is the case in much of Europe) once the economy has stabilized, as people start having fewer children. It seems to me that our population growth could have a soft landing rather than a hard one if the rest of the world can catch up with the United States and Europe(but more sustainably, of course).


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: Silversoul]
    #7573859 - 10/29/07 06:01 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

It is my opinion more and more these days that it's just plain too late.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibleEternalCowabunga
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: trendal]
    #7573872 - 10/29/07 06:02 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Unless we build a 500 meter long rocket ship and fly it to the moon :mypleasure:


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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: trendal]
    #7573875 - 10/29/07 06:03 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

I try to avoid such a defeatist attitude. Even if it's too late to stop some of the damage, we could still have a chance to keep things from getting even worse.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: Silversoul]
    #7573908 - 10/29/07 06:09 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

"Don't just call me pessimist.
Try and read between the lines."
--Tool

I prefer to look at it from the other side...why waste time trying to save a dead world? Much better to just try not to be one of the untold (and unfed) billions.

Because that other side of it...oh boy, it looks sweet from where I stand :wink:


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: trendal]
    #7573923 - 10/29/07 06:13 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
"Don't just call me pessimist.
Try and read between the lines."
--Tool

I prefer to look at it from the other side...why waste time trying to save a dead world? Much better to just try not to be one of the untold (and unfed) billions.

Because that other side of it...oh boy, it looks sweet from where I stand :wink:



I think by avoiding that attitude, we could turn those billions into millions if not thousands.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: Silversoul]
    #7573943 - 10/29/07 06:18 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

We will have to agree to disagree on this one, as I doubt much that either of us will change his mind :smirk:

It's good though that you agree there is a problem.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: trendal]
    #7574153 - 10/29/07 07:27 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
Why is it that we humans think we'll fare better off than the lowly bacteria?




Likely because we think. :shrug:

Quote:


But then we find other, far more advanced, animals doing the same thing. Everything from urchins to rabbits can and will breed uncontrollably and then die off...often measured in the millions of animals.




None of these animals can conceptualize available resources, nor can they take action to proliferate available resources, nor can they manage their reproduction habits.

Quote:


I propose that any animal species will, if given the chance, undergo a population explosion and then die off.

I consider humans to be an animal species :wink:




Your proposal is based upon observation of animal species, all of which do not represent human nature, even if humans are animals. Human nature is not animal nature, and humans are very adaptive creatures.

Surely there are checks and balances, but I don't foresee humans consuming resources beyond the point of sustainability and dying off in massive proportions. Perhaps I am simply more optimistic about our nature. I don't see these checks and balances existing as simply "overconsumption - die off". Most of human existance is defined by our thought processes, and I feel the checks and balances lie within that realm. Sustainability is becoming more and more prominent of an issue. As we observe the nature of reality, we subsequently change in order to live in accordance with reality, so that we may continue to live.


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:


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OfflineWScott
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: fireworks_god]
    #7574326 - 10/29/07 08:17 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Look up the history of Easter Island. We either learn from that or bite the dust. That simple.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: WScott]
    #7574350 - 10/29/07 08:24 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Good example!

It's one of numerous examples of human societies experiencing a peak and die off in population.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.


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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: trendal]
    #7574363 - 10/29/07 08:28 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Fortunately, one thing that distinguishes humans is a great capacity for learning(even if it takes a while). The fact that it's happened before does not mean it must happen again.


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Invisibledemiu5
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: trendal]
    #7574378 - 10/29/07 08:34 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
Surely no thinking creature would bread out of control and eat all it's food supply...




bad pun or spelling mistake? :wink:


Quote:

I propose that any animal species will, if given the chance, undergo a population explosion and then die off.




well of course.  every animal will consume as much as it can, until it reaches it fill, and sometimes past that (exs. dogs, pigs, most humans)

Quote:

I consider humans to be an animal species :wink:




well of course we're animals.  what else would we be?


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: WScott]
    #7574380 - 10/29/07 08:35 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

WScottsdale said:
Look up the history of Easter Island. We either learn from that or bite the dust. That simple.




View Of Easter Island All Wrong, Researchers Say

Quote:


The revised estimate is based on new radiocarbon dating of soil samples collected from one of oldest known sites on the island, which is in the South Pacific west of Chile.
The finding challenges the widely held notion that Easter Island's civilization experienced a sudden collapse after centuries of slow growth.




Quote:


Crucial to the conventional account of events on Easter Island is the time when settlers first arrived. If colonization didn't begin until 1200 AD, then the island's population wouldn't have had time to swell to tens of thousands of people.




Quote:


Also, the few thousand people Europeans encountered when they first arrived on Easter Island might not have been the remnants of a once great and populous civilization as widely believed. The researchers think a few thousand people might have been all the island was ever able to support.




Quote:


The researchers also dispute the claim that Easter Island's human inhabitants were responsible for their own demise. Instead, they think the culprits may have been Europeans, who brought disease and took islanders away as slaves, and rats, which quickly multiplied after arriving with the first Polynesian settlers.




Quote:


At a scientific meeting last year, Hunt presented evidence that the island's rat population spiked to 20 million from the years 1200 to 1300. Rats had no predators on the island other than humans and they would have made quick work of the island's palm seeds. After the trees were gone, the island's rat population dropped off to a mere one million.




Quote:


Lipo thinks the story of Easter Island's civilization being responsible for its own demise might better reflect the psychological baggage of our own society than the archeological evidence.




It clearly isn't "that simple". Suggesting a disputable account of an isolated event in history isn't conveying much of a point. :shrug:


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:


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OfflineWScott
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: fireworks_god]
    #7574422 - 10/29/07 08:45 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Blasphemy. :rolleyes:

Regardless, the 'prior' theory of Easter Island can still serve as an example of the direction we're going, even if it is only an allegory in reality.


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: WScott]
    #7574519 - 10/29/07 09:07 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Clearly it can serve as an allegorical example, but I simply do not see how the example relates to the present reality of humanity, which is something I would dispute even if the theory did portray the reality of what occured on Easter Island.

In fact, I think it illustrates perfectly the distinction between who human beings are now, and who they were then. Human beings hold a collective conception of sustainability, and I think it is clearly evident that we are acting upon it, more and more. Human beings are adaptive to the point that we have transformed what it means to be human. Our progress as a civilization implies that we have become more aware of the nature of our living situation, the effects of our actions, the threats to our sustainability.

I think our human systems that we have established act as a buffer between natural checks and balances. I don't see a massive die-off of humanity, barring any natural catastrophes, as the checks and balances of our own civilization limit our ability for us to come into consequence of natural checks and balances on populations.


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:


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OfflineBlueRidge
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: fireworks_god]
    #7575767 - 10/30/07 09:17 AM (16 years, 3 months ago)

if i am not mistaken the sole reason for our outrageous population is that we have harnessed the power of cheap fossil fuels. Look around you, almost everything man made that you see is there because of industrialization and fossil fuels. The infrastructure of present civilization is DEPENDENT on fossil fuels. How can some sort of population die off not be inevitable?

edit, grammar


Edited by BlueRidge (10/30/07 09:20 AM)


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InvisibleIcelander
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: Silversoul]
    #7575800 - 10/30/07 09:23 AM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Silversoul said:
I try to avoid such a defeatist attitude.  Even if it's too late to stop some of the damage, we could still have a chance to keep things from getting even worse.




You can choose to see this as a defeatist attitude but IMO that is just death anxiety at work.

If humanity becomes extinct then that only means we have fulfilled our purpose in the scheme of things. All good then. Please try and be more positive about these things.:lol:


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC


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OfflineBlueRidge
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: Icelander]
    #7575830 - 10/30/07 09:33 AM (16 years, 3 months ago)

humanity is breaking the cycle of unsustainability. realize that man kind has put itself in this situation. ofcourse, everything is 20/20 in hindsight, but that is how we learn to live. if i must make mistakes to learn to live, why must it be different on simply a larger scale?


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InvisibleIcelander
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: BlueRidge]
    #7575836 - 10/30/07 09:36 AM (16 years, 3 months ago)

humanity is breaking the cycle of unsustainability.

This is speculation at this point and no long term proof of it at all. Most likely it is not true IMO.


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC


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OfflineBlueRidge
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: Icelander]
    #7575851 - 10/30/07 09:40 AM (16 years, 3 months ago)

yes, but it must become true at some point, no?


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InvisibleIcelander
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: BlueRidge]
    #7575855 - 10/30/07 09:41 AM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Yes, but it could break the cycle by extinction.;)


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC


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OfflineBlueRidge
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: Icelander]
    #7575873 - 10/30/07 09:47 AM (16 years, 3 months ago)

heh, very true. imo, technology has made humans somewhat lazy. too many people must purchase their food from the supermarket to survive. i would like to go into depth much more but i have to go to work (so i can buy food at the supermarket). humans are very good at making systems, maybe too good?


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InvisibleMushmanTheManic
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: trendal]
    #7577270 - 10/30/07 03:28 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

You're assuming food is finite.


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InvisibleIcelander
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: MushmanTheManic]
    #7577293 - 10/30/07 03:33 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Everything physical is finite.


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC


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InvisibleOrgoneConclusion
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: Icelander]
    #7577353 - 10/30/07 03:44 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Is there a limit to stupidity?


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InvisibleIcelander
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: OrgoneConclusion]
    #7577371 - 10/30/07 03:50 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Of course there is. Humans aren't that creative.


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC


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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: Silversoul]
    #7577662 - 10/30/07 05:16 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Fortunately, one thing that distinguishes humans is a great capacity for learning(even if it takes a while). The fact that it's happened before does not mean it must happen again.




We may be aware of the problem, but I don't see many people consciously going through life, choosing to remain childless for "the good of all humanity". Everyone on earth knows our population is growing at exponential levels, and most everyone on earth is still reproducing. Unfortunately, those that aren't reproducing tend to be the more intelligent ones. That can't be good for future populations...


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InvisibleIcelander
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: adrug]
    #7577671 - 10/30/07 05:18 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

I couldn't agree more.


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC


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OfflineBlueRidge
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: Icelander]
    #7577997 - 10/30/07 06:47 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

unfortunately, our societies aren't too conducive at having true leaders lead. rather difficult when populations are in the millions and billions also though, IMO.

we will get better when we learn.


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OfflineGrok
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: BlueRidge]
    #7578274 - 10/30/07 08:16 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Well, so long as you don't mind going native for a bit when shit hits the fan and acquiring a taste for your fellow man, there'll be plenty of food to sustain you through the worst of it :wink:


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: BlueRidge]
    #7578295 - 10/30/07 08:22 PM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

BlueRidge said:
The infrastructure of present civilization is DEPENDENT on fossil fuels. How can some sort of population die off not be inevitable?




Well, a path of continuously reducing our dependency on fossil fuels would be the answer. :wink:


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:


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OfflineBlueRidge
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: fireworks_god]
    #7579788 - 10/31/07 08:34 AM (16 years, 3 months ago)

yes, reducing our dependency on fossil fuels would be nice. it is rather impractical when you really think about it though. you cannot just switch to something else, what would that something be? biodiesel? solar? wind? hydro? these alternatives simply do not have what it takes to replace cheap oil.


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: BlueRidge]
    #7579862 - 10/31/07 08:59 AM (16 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

BlueRidge said:
yes, reducing our dependency on fossil fuels would be nice. it is rather impractical when you really think about it though. you cannot just switch to something else, what would that something be? biodiesel? solar? wind? hydro? these alternatives simply do not have what it takes to replace cheap oil.




Clearly we wouldn't "just switch", and I don't think there would be a singular replacement, nor should there be. Our dependence on oil only begins with gasoline and electricity production, however, my main concern, especially in relation to a human die off, would be in regards to food supply, and oil's present role in agriculture. Of course, our system of transferring the energy from the Sun into our bodies is so wasteful and convoluted that simply growing and consuming the right plant material would absolve any concerns regarding that.


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:


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Invisible2sky
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Re: Population: exponential growth and the inevitable die off [Re: fireworks_god]
    #7586652 - 11/02/07 06:06 AM (16 years, 2 months ago)

Perhaps a better analogy is the opening scene in the movie: '2001 Space Odyssey' where the two tribes are discussing the ownership of a watering-hole only big enough for one. As long as there is enough, you can drink as much as you like - regardless of race, color or creed; but in the end, there has always been only one solution to the problem.

Perhaps it's time to start treating the cause - instead of the symptoms?


Edited by 2sky (11/02/07 08:28 AM)


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