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trendal
J♠



Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can
#7489457 - 10/05/07 06:21 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Symptoms of Peak Oil Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can 2007-10-02 By Keith Kohl
Baltimore, MD--"There are two words that you will never hear again in the same sentence: ‘cheap' and ‘oil.'" I remember saying this more than seven months ago, as oil was trading above $60 a barrel.
But I should confess something. . .
I was completely wrong.
Before you jump the gun with jests and accusations, just hear me out for a minute (because I know many of you will feel the same way). You see, there's a chance I'll be sitting at my desk six months from now reminiscing about how oil used to be so much cheaper in the mid-$70s.
I know oil prices always fall during the winter. Believe me, I thought they'd already be heading lower.
That's not the case, though. I'll let last week's Energy Information Agency (EIA) petroleum report show you what I mean . . .
EIA Chart
For the last four weeks, crude oil spot prices rose significantly. Notice that last week's spot price was $23.59 more than the previous year.
quot;Well, maybe they're going to start heading down now?" you ask.
Possibly, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. In fact, oil prices are expected to rise above $85 a barrel before the end of 2007 and to over $100 a barrel next year.
It's not good enough for us just to hear somebody say that oil is going to rise. My thirteen-year-old niece could make that prediction. We want to know why we're in trouble.
And we seem to blame the wrong people, too. Just the other day, I was talking about gas prices with my neighbor when the record crude oil price of $83.90 a barrel came up. I was curious as to how he felt. "So what do you think is causing all this?"
"It's those damn big oil companies. Exxon and all them guys are ruining everything, trying to keep prices high to get more of our money," he said matter-of-factly.
Imagine his surprise when I told him that all the "big" oil companies like Exxon control less than 10% of the production. He gave me a curious stare when I mentioned peak oil to him. He had never even heard of it before.
"Well, that'll change soon, because it's going to be an issue as big as global warming within the next couple of years."
Here's the thing: The more we see how tight global supply and demand are getting, the more our minds focus on peak oil.
Peak oil, of course, is the point when global oil production peaks and begins to decline.
Here are the facts: Right now the world is producing roughly 85 million barrels per day (mmbbls/day). And producers are struggling to maintain production from depleting oil fields. My question is: What do you think will happen when we're still producing 85 mmbbls/day in the near future, but consuming 88 mmbbls/day?
Even if production doesn't steeply decline like the peak oil theory claims, but rather plateaus like the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests, the gap between supply and demand will continue to widen. That'll lead to considerably higher oil prices, well in excess of $100 a barrel.
Not only is oil getting more expensive to extract, but we're also not seeing the same major discoveries we were decades ago. There are no more Ghawars out there, plain and simple.
I believe we'll easily see $90 oil before it drops below $70 a barrel, especially if the EIA's weekly oil report continues to show crude oil stocks dropping. U.S. stocks last week were about four million barrels less than last year.
Savor It Now While You Still Can
I told you I was wrong about oil never being cheap again.
The truth is that oil is incredibly cheap right now compared to what we'll see in the future--which raises the question, "What is the true price of oil?"
In 2002, we all would've agreed that $50 for a barrel of oil would be ridiculous, considering prices were $20 a barrel. A few years later, we would have said that $60 oil would never sustain itself, and prices would soon be back to $30. All of a sudden people are saying that $100 oil is within reason?
What's next?
When we're consuming 97 million barrels per day in 2015 (according to the optimistic EIA estimates) and production is still in its "plateau," will we think $300 for a barrel of oil is cheap?
Let's just enjoy $80 while we can.
Until next time,
Keith Kohl
http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/peak+oil-oil+prices-investing/524
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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makaveli8x8
Stranger


Registered: 02/28/06
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: trendal]
#7489493 - 10/05/07 06:34 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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thats where hybrids come into play, every 10 years or so they will release a new technology to save you gas money, which encorges you to buy a new car every 10 years.
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  We were sent to hell for eternity Ø h® We play on earth to pass the time Over-population the root of all Evil-brings the Elites Closer to the gates.
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bukkake


Registered: 05/28/05
Posts: 2,764
Loc: Classified
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: trendal]
#7489513 - 10/05/07 06:44 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Peak oil is a myth.
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Shroomism
Space Travellin



Registered: 02/13/00
Posts: 66,015
Loc: 9th Dimension
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: trendal]
#7489517 - 10/05/07 06:46 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Time for Bio-Diesel IMO.
HEMP FOR VICTORY!
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Shroomism
Space Travellin



Registered: 02/13/00
Posts: 66,015
Loc: 9th Dimension
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: bukkake]
#7489519 - 10/05/07 06:46 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
bukkake said: Peak oil is a myth.
So is ur mom?
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bukkake


Registered: 05/28/05
Posts: 2,764
Loc: Classified
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: Shroomism]
#7489528 - 10/05/07 06:50 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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My mom has very little to do with crude oil.
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CosmicFool
Psychoholic


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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: makaveli8x8]
#7489540 - 10/05/07 06:56 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
makaveli8x8 said: thats where hybrids come into play, every 10 years or so they will release a new technology to save you gas money, which encorges you to buy a new car every 10 years.
screw hybrids http://www.teslamotors.com/
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trendal
J♠



Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: bukkake]
#7489578 - 10/05/07 07:07 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
bukkake said: Peak oil is a myth.
Are you implying that our oil production will rise indefinitely?
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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bukkake


Registered: 05/28/05
Posts: 2,764
Loc: Classified
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: trendal]
#7489593 - 10/05/07 07:12 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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No, it'll go down someday. But right now they're price gouging. The fellow who originally thought up the peak oil theory was a Shell employee. Can't believe anything oil companies said then or now.
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trendal
J♠



Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: bukkake]
#7489603 - 10/05/07 07:15 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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I bet you think the ceo of Exxon sets the price of oil 
Or a bunch of Arabs sitting around plotting how to line their pockets?
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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bukkake


Registered: 05/28/05
Posts: 2,764
Loc: Classified
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: trendal]
#7489614 - 10/05/07 07:17 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Yes. I'm a conspiracy nut.
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DieCommie


Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: bukkake]
#7489643 - 10/05/07 07:25 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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I certainly believe there will come a point when oil production peaks and consumption continues to increase.
But I think the free market will solve the problem. Not painlessly but it will solve it. Oil prices will go up slow enough that people will start buying more efficient devices (like hybrids) and then those efficient devices will come down in price due to the extra money for development.
The best thing that can happen, imo, is that gas/oil prices continue to rise... But that they rise relatively slowly and they rise predictably. This will give both people and infrastructure time to change and incentive to change while minimizing the discomfort of consumers (in industrial and third world countries)
EDIT- and yes, I am enjoying the cheap oil.
Edited by Qubit (10/05/07 07:29 PM)
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LucidDream
Hungry BlueFiend



Registered: 05/09/03
Posts: 1,496
Loc: Planet of the Stupid Peop...
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: trendal]
#7489646 - 10/05/07 07:25 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Man, the Pub is getting all heavy tonight. PNAC, peak oil...shit. I came here to escape all this. Next we'll be talking about how the Fed deliberately keeps millions of people unemployed to keep labor costs down, or how key people from Cisco Systems are employed by NSA to help tap into the backbones of teh interwebs.
Don't get me wrong, it's good that this stuff is reaching all corners of the net. I'm just all touchy about it, 'cause I'm ready to give up on this crazy planet, where the damned rule and the sensible people are all kept as far from power as possible. Flying monkeys lead my country. And the Wicked Witch is waiting in the wings.
(your alliteration has increased to 85)
-------------------- Sarcasm just one of my many talents.
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Shroomism
Space Travellin



Registered: 02/13/00
Posts: 66,015
Loc: 9th Dimension
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: DieCommie]
#7489652 - 10/05/07 07:26 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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I think the best thing that could happen is the Oil Industry collapses completely, overnight.
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mndfreeze 
Shroomery Secret Service




Registered: 04/22/02
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: Shroomism]
#7489683 - 10/05/07 07:32 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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I'm in agreeance with LucidDream. I'm so tired of oil issue #7824628, government failure #838237, unhappy people bitchfest #5683938.
The oil thing is not nearly as big of a deal as people make it out to be. Technology exists NOW that could replace it if it went sky high to quickly or depleted for good, regardless of the who or why that its mostly out of reach for the people at that time.
the prices of oil of COURSE are going to go up over time, especially with all the 'theory' about how its running out, how dependant we supposedly are on it, etc.
Hell, the price of my candy bars are going up to by massive amounts, but thats just inflation...
-------------------- Nothing says love like grannies prolapsed anus! quote]Urb said: I know... Its fucked up... Ill fix it minyana..[/quote]
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wps
Well-PaidScientist


Registered: 09/22/07
Posts: 579
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: CosmicFool]
#7489699 - 10/05/07 07:38 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
CosmicFool said:
Quote:
makaveli8x8 said: thats where hybrids come into play, every 10 years or so they will release a new technology to save you gas money, which encorges you to buy a new car every 10 years.
screw hybrids http://www.teslamotors.com/
holy shit, I want one.
too bad I ain't got $100k.
-------------------- "America touts itself as the land of the free, but the number one freedom that you and I have is the freedom to enter into a subservient role in the workplace. Once you exercise this freedom you've lost all control over what you do, what is produced, and how it is produced. And in the end, the product doesn't belong to you. The only way you can avoid bosses and jobs is if you don't care about making a living. Which leads to the second freedom: the freedom to starve." - Tom Morello
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wps
Well-PaidScientist


Registered: 09/22/07
Posts: 579
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: Shroomism]
#7489711 - 10/05/07 07:43 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Shroomism said: I think the best thing that could happen is the Oil Industry collapses completely, overnight.
yeah, living in an urban warzone filled with looters and gangs would be fun.
I would all bust out onto the city streets with an MP5 and be like: BRRRRRRRATATATATATAT!
then I'd die. looking back on my life as a spirit, I would be like: "Cool."
-------------------- "America touts itself as the land of the free, but the number one freedom that you and I have is the freedom to enter into a subservient role in the workplace. Once you exercise this freedom you've lost all control over what you do, what is produced, and how it is produced. And in the end, the product doesn't belong to you. The only way you can avoid bosses and jobs is if you don't care about making a living. Which leads to the second freedom: the freedom to starve." - Tom Morello
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zorbman
blarrr



Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: mndfreeze]
#7489713 - 10/05/07 07:44 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Technology exists NOW that could replace it if it went sky high to quickly or depleted for good, regardless of the who or why that its mostly out of reach for the people at that time.
Nonsense.
Technology is not magic. Any new energy source must be dense, scalable, and readily available. Also the needed infrastructure for new energy sources must be in place. That includes replacing our entire transportation fleet.
You can bet that virtually nothing will be done to replace oil until it smacks us hard in the mouth. The political will simply doesn't exist. We are going to keep on doing what we are doing until we can't do it anymore. By then we will see massive economic disruption with the attendant social chaos. The last time we had an economic depression we had Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin and da boys.
Enjoy the cheap oil; At current prices it comes out to about 9 cents a cup.
How much is a cup of coffee at Starbucks?
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
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UlcerPentacidis
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: makaveli8x8]
#7489734 - 10/05/07 07:50 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
makaveli8x8 said: thats where hybrids come into play,
keep in mind that oil is the root energy input of automobile manufacture as well, and that not only will pump prices go up, but all goods and services fueled by oil will too. personal motor vehicle travel is actually only a moderate slice of the pie amongst many others in terms of oil consumption. all facets of the agricultural industry are powered by it, from farming and harvesting equipment, food processing, transportation, and the chemical fertilizers and pestacides required for large scale farming. same goes for the livestock industry, which i believe accounts for one of the largest consumptions of oil. every calorie of food produced requires several calories of oil as an energy input, and every calorie of oil extracted from the earth becomes more costly as reserves fall beyond the half way point. the widening gap of decreased capacity to produce oil, and increasing demand will drive the price up until many aspects of our economy will be unable to function. from there, its anybodies guess what will happen...
-------------------- µgrammar
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supra
computerEnthusiast
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Re: Enjoy the Cheap Oil While You Still Can [Re: zorbman]
#7489748 - 10/05/07 07:56 PM (16 years, 3 months ago) |
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Guys, IMHO, we are not going to run out of oil anytime soon...I do well site services for drilling companies. Mudlogging in particular. And we have had more work here lately than ever. Now the market will keep up with demand. Not only is the supply of oil SURPASSING the demand, but we are still BUILDING RESERVES in the government. There is plenty of oil, the big oil companies like you to think there is a shortage or we are going to run out or something, but it won't happen anytime in the foreseeable future...They do this to keep the prices high, it doesn't bother me too much, but I also dont drive big ass SUV's with only me in the car. Not only that, if you really need a job, both oil companies and the guys that put up wind generators are hiring like crazy here in texas...im trying to get out of it and in a job that actually has to do with my field, but your almost guaranteed a job here if you have drilling or geology or general construction experience. I work there cause it pays good and its pretty fun, much better than being a roughneck or tool pusher...my dos pesos
peace
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