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InvisibleGratos
Just thinkin anddrinkin
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Registered: 08/21/05
Posts: 1,374
Anyone good at figuring odds?
    #7405558 - 09/13/07 06:28 PM (16 years, 4 months ago)

I just got pulled to do a random drug test. Every month 5% of the 1900 carpenters in the state that I live have to take a drug test for the IUCRC. This will be the second month in a row that I have to take a random.

Every month 95 guys out of 1900 have to take the test. I have been pulled two months in a row. What are the odds?

Im probably just paranoid but something doesnt feel right.


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InvisibleWhiskeyClone
Not here
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Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 16,509
Loc: Longitudinal Center of Canada ...
Re: Anyone good at figuring odds? [Re: Gratos]
    #7405603 - 09/13/07 06:36 PM (16 years, 4 months ago)

Your chances are 5% per month.

Your chances of getting tested any two months in a row are 5% of 5%, or 0.0025%

Given that you've already been tested two months in a row, your chances of getting tested for a third month in a row are still 5%.


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Welcome evermore to gods and men is the self-helping man.  For him all doors are flung wide: him all tongues greet, all honors crown, all eyes follow with desire.  Our love goes out to him and embraces him, because he did not need it.

~ R.W. Emerson, "Self-Reliance"

:heartpump:


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OfflineToTheSummit
peregrinus
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Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 08/22/99
Posts: 9,126
Loc: Las Vegas
Last seen: 4 hours, 50 minutes
Re: Anyone good at figuring odds? [Re: WhiskeyClone]
    #7405628 - 09/13/07 06:40 PM (16 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

WhiskeyClone said:
Your chances are 5% per month.

Your chances of getting tested any two months in a row are 5% of 5%, or 0.0025%

Given that you've already been tested two months in a row, your chances of getting tested for a third month in a row are still 5%.



Yeah, odds are a funny thing. Because you have been tested twice in a row you'll tend to think "Theres no chance I'll get tested again, the odds are against it." But every month your chance is still 5%.


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You invented the wheel....You push the motherfucker!!


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