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North Spore Shop: Cultivation Supplies

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OfflineThe_Red_Crayon
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Second Pemex pipeline attack = more systems disruptions
    #7400713 - 09/12/07 01:23 PM (16 years, 4 months ago)

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-guerrillas12sep12,1,5114473.story?coll=la-headlines-world

MALTRATA, MEXICO -- -- A leftist guerrilla group claimed credit Tuesday for the bombing attacks a day earlier of six Pemex pipelines in central Mexico, as officials conceded it was impossible for police and army troops to protect the company's vast fuel-distribution network.

The Popular Revolutionary Army, known by the initials EPR in Spanish, said 12 of its "military units" had undertaken the attacks in Veracruz and Tlaxcala states to force the government to hand over two EPR militants who disappeared this year. The EPR says the men were arrested in Oaxaca, but officials there deny they detained them.




http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/

TARGET: MEXICO
More global guerrilla activity in Mexico. Six new attacks by an unknown guerrilla group (an earlier claim by a leftist group was likely a false front) destroyed five PEMEX natural gas pipelines (likely through a timed detonation). 12,000 people were evacuated due to fire risk. This follows on the heals of the July pipeline attack that disrupted operations at 1,200 companies (including Honda, Nissan, and Kelloggs). If the earlier pattern of embedded timer-triggered explosives holds, there will be more explosions next week. Is this the start of the "Breaking Mexico" scenario? The sophistication of the earlier attack (given that it targeted critical valves -- systempunkts) and the ability to repeat the assault (so far, nobody has been caught) indicates that it has the potential to be:
Here's on potential method of how it could happen. Analysis of critical Mexican infrastructure reveals a critical flaw. Due to its history as an oil exporter, nearly all domestic fuels and most of its electricity is generated from oil and natural gas delivered by pipelines radiating from the oil producing region in the southeastern corner of the country. Low tech attacks along a 300-400 mile stretch of pipeline would quickly starve the country of the oil needed to generate electricity and refine fuels (the current system has been inadvertently built to maximize cascading failures across multiple infrastructures if properly disrupted). Further, analysis of the pipeline infrastructure would also quickly reveal junctions and pumping equipment that would be extremely difficult to replace (systempunkts). As we have seen in Iraq, Nigeria, India, Pakistan, etc. these anonymous attacks could be frequent, effective, and nearly impossible to interdict. They would also result in an immediate expansion of black markets for fuels imported from the US, generating a useful feedback loop for continued disruption.
Given the level of gang and criminal violence currently challenging the Mexican state [which has been militarized and thereby converted into a war between the state and non-state groups] for supremacy, there is already a large subset of actors that could quickly seize upon this opportunity. Their access to arms (often much better than the Mexican military) and to sources of income independent of the state's function (smuggling of all types into the US) would allow them to thrive at double and triple digit growth rates as state power began to fail. They also have access to a huge pool of people that would be easily enticed to disrupt infrastructure for a few dollars (enabling the costs inflicted by disruption to top $200,000 for every $1 invested in the activity). In short, the dynamic that is produced would be similar to the models of state failure we have seen elsewhere. It would also be almost impossible to stop once it becomes entrenched.
NOTE: the cascade of failure from these attacks has forced Volkswagen to close its car assembly plant in Puebla for 5 days -- at a loss of 7,200 assembled vehicles. In a JIT (just in time) global economy, the impact from systems disruption can travel quickly.


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OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero


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Registered: 04/27/01
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Re: Second Pemex pipeline attack = more systems disruptions [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
    #7400789 - 09/12/07 01:47 PM (16 years, 4 months ago)

There is a very good reason why oil assets of US interest south of the US border are not threatened. The people responsible for this are already dead, they just don't realize it yet.


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Just another spore in the wind.


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Invisiblezorbman
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Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
Re: Second Pemex pipeline attack = more systems disruptions [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
    #7400793 - 09/12/07 01:48 PM (16 years, 4 months ago)

Resource wars- Latino style!

America's second largest supplier of oil is unraveling at a faster pace now. Mexico's largest oil field is also depleting rapidly. Probably within 2-4 years they will no longer be able to export oil to the U.S.

Uh oh.

People think gas prices are high and too many illegals are pouring over our southern border now?

Just wait.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch


Edited by zorbman (09/12/07 02:17 PM)


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