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InvisibleDiploidM
Cuban


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
Where Are The Hurricanes?
    #7284808 - 08/11/07 04:52 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)



Sure, by recent standards, the hurricane season has started a little slowly and government experts slightly trimmed their full-season forecast Thursday.

But don't take anything for granted, scientists said. Many seasons that begin sluggishly eventually produce disastrous hurricanes -- anyone remember Hurricane Andrew? -- and end up as above average or even hyperactive overachievers.

"If you look back at some extremely active years, it's not unusual at all for the first hurricane to form on the 15th or 20th of August and then have the season take off," said Stanley Goldenberg, a scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division on Virginia Key.

"The first storm can be the one that clobbers you," he said.

Example A: Hurricane Able, born Aug. 13, 1950, a year that produced nearly three times as much hurricane activity -- measured by total wind energy -- as a normal year, Goldenberg said.

Example B: Hurricane Bonnie, born Aug. 22, 1998, the first hurricane of that year, which ended up with twice the normal amount of hurricane activity.

Example C: Hurricane Cleo, born Aug. 21, 1964, again the first hurricane of that season, which produced nearly twice the normal amount of seasonal activity.

And, of course, Andrew, which devastated South Miami-Dade on Aug. 24, 1992, as the first named storm of the year -- a Category 5 powerhouse.

"One scary thing about Andrew is how a season can be dead and then, come mid-August or the third week of August, here comes the activity and devastating landfalls,"' Goldenberg said. "We are just now entering the peak three months of the season."

Still, let's enjoy the tranquility for as long as we can.

On Thursday, government forecasters slightly narrowed their full-season prediction of activity.

NOAA forecasters now expect 13 to 16 named storms that grow into seven to nine hurricanes, including three to five that become intense, with winds above 110 mph.

Before the six-month season began June 1, they predicted 13 to 17 named storms that become seven to 10 hurricanes, three to five intense.

Last week, forecasters from Colorado State University also slightly reduced their full-season prediction.

Experts note that full-season predictions tend to be less accurate than real-time ''operational'' forecasts of an actual storm, which are produced by a different team of scientists.

So far, the season has produced three tropical storms and no hurricanes, though -- as Goldenberg noted -- the historically most active period is just beginning.

Another sobering fact: Even the latest seasonal forecasts suggest above-average activity.

"We remain in an active period,'' said Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster. ``The fact that we've seen no hurricanes so far means absolutely nothing."

miamiherald.com


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Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.


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InvisibleZippoZM
Knomadic
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Registered: 06/17/03
Posts: 13,227
Loc: Pongyang, North Korea
Re: Where Are The Hurricanes? [Re: Diploid]
    #7284865 - 08/11/07 05:27 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

yeah, it has been far less than normal.

i have been waiting on a hurricane to make land fall, honestly so i can go drive into it and feel furry of nature first hand :smile:


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PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


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InvisibleDiploidM
Cuban


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
Re: Where Are The Hurricanes? [Re: ZippoZ]
    #7284873 - 08/11/07 05:30 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Yeah, well, I live in the Miami / Fort Lauderdale area and a couple of years ago Katrina and Wilma both passed through here and felt me up enough for a lifetime. :whoa:


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.


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Invisibletak
geo's henchman
Male User Gallery


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Registered: 11/21/00
Posts: 3,774
Loc: nowhereland
Re: Where Are The Hurricanes? [Re: Diploid]
    #7285004 - 08/11/07 06:32 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

will work for hurricane


--------------------
The DJ's took pills to stay awake and play for seven days.


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Invisibledaussaulit
Forgetful

Registered: 08/06/02
Posts: 2,894
Loc: Earth
Re: Where Are The Hurricanes? [Re: Diploid]
    #7285576 - 08/11/07 10:38 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

There has definitely been a lot of other activity though. Heavy storms in NYC crippling the subway. Record highs during a heat wave plaguing Washington DC, Missouri, Georgia, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Delaware, Oklahoma. Flooding and deaths in Texas last month.


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OfflineToTheSummit
peregrinus
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Registered: 08/23/99
Posts: 9,111
Loc: Las Vegas
Last seen: 1 day, 3 hours
Re: Where Are The Hurricanes? [Re: daussaulit]
    #7286156 - 08/12/07 02:54 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

daussaulit said:
There has definitely been a lot of other activity though. Heavy storms in NYC crippling the subway. Record highs during a heat wave plaguing Washington DC, Missouri, Georgia, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Delaware, Oklahoma. Flooding and deaths in Texas last month.



And don't forget the record drought out west. Its never been this dry here....ever! I sure wish you guys could send some of that excess rain our way.


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You invented the wheel....You push the motherfucker!!


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InvisibleautomanM
blasted chipmunk
 User Gallery

Registered: 09/18/03
Posts: 8,271
Re: Where Are The Hurricanes? [Re: ToTheSummit]
    #7288062 - 08/12/07 05:51 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

same way in the south. this summer is officially the worst drought on record. the record keeping goes back to the 1800's.

Code:

High /Low (°F) Precip. %
Mon
Aug 13 Sunny 102°/68° 20 %
Tue
Aug 14 Sunny 102°/73° 20 %
Wed
Aug 15 Mostly Sunny 104°/73° 10 %
Thu
Aug 16 Mostly Sunny 105°/75° 10 %
Fri
Aug 17 Mostly Sunny 102°/72° 20 %



and as you can see... no rain anytime soon.


--------------------
No, no, you're not thinking, you're just being logical. ~ Niels Bohr


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