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Offlinevintage_gonzo
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Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing
    #7141553 - 07/07/07 11:57 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Everything that I have read says Iran is vulnerable economically. It seems we should just let them self-destruct from within through sanctions instead of rallying them behind a cause if we attck them.

http://www.forbes.com/2007/07/05/iran-gasoline-rationing-pf-guru-ii-in_jm_0705soapbox_inl.html?partner=alerts


Mullahs Gone Wild
John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors 07.05.07, 12:44 PM ET

I want to briefly look at a development in the oil markets, which I find intriguing. Dr. Woody Brock, in a recent paper on oil prices, wrote a rather interesting sentence, to wit, that Iran would not have net oil to export in 2014.

I found that rather remarkable. Woody is very serious and sober-minded even for an economist, not given to rash analysis, but this was certainly a new idea to me. I knew they were importing most of their gasoline, as they do not have a great deal of refining capacity. As it turns out, there is much more to the story.

I have said for years that I expect Iran to be the new friend of the U.S. sometime next decade, as the regime is not popular and the country is growing younger. (Think China, once an implacable enemy.) I thought that the impetus would be the lack of freedom and knowledge of how the world is better off coming from the Internet, but it turns out that it may be a desire for more freedom combined with economic problems, which help bring about regime change, much as in Russia last century.

Buyback Letter subscribers are up 45% in the past six months with Big Lots. Click here for the complete buy list in the July issue of the Buyback Letter.
How could a country with the third (or second, depending on which source you quote) largest oil reserves in the world not be churning out ever more black gold? The answer, as it almost always is for such problems, turns out to be governmental and not economic in nature. Let's start out with a few facts.

Oil provides more than 70% of the revenues of the government of Iran. The rise in oil prices has been a bonanza for the regime, allowing them to subsidize all sorts of welfare programs at home and mischief abroad. And one of the chief subsidies is gasoline prices.

Gasoline costs about $.34 cents a gallon in Iran, or 9 cents a liter. You can fill up your Honda Civic for $4.49. In the U.S. it costs almost $40. In neighboring Turkey it costs almost $95. Iran is spending 38% of its national budget (almost 15% of gross domestic product) on gasoline subsidies!

And this situation is likely to get worse. Let's look at a rather remarkable peer-reviewed study done for the National Academy of Sciences by Roger Stern of Johns Hopkins University late last year. Stern's analysis is somewhat political, in that he is critical of current U.S. Iranian policy, but this is just one of several studies that show the same thing:

"A more probable scenario is that, absent some change in Irani policy ... [we will see] exports declining to zero by 2014 to 2015. Energy subsidies, hostility to foreign investment and inefficiencies of its state-planned economy underlie Iran's problem, which has no relation to 'peak oil.' "

Iran earns about $50 billion a year in oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10% to 12% annually. In less than five years, exports could be halved and then disappear by 2015, predicted Stern.

Of course, you can go to a dozen Web sites, mostly Iranian, which demonstrate that Iranian production will be double (or pick a number) by that time. The problem is, they all assume rather large sums of investment in the Iranian oil fields. Two projects which are "counted on" to be producing oil in 2008 have yet to be funded or started, as negotiations have broken down. Iran seems incapable of getting a deal actually done with a willing partner.

Part of this is caused by the Iranian constitution, which does not allow for foreign ownership of oil reserves or fields. Instead, they try to negotiate to pay for investing in oil production. Called a buyback, any investment in an oil field is turned into sovereign Iranian government debt with a return of 15% to 17%. This is a very unpopular program at home, coming under much criticism from local government officials. Any deal that gets close to getting done comes under attack from lawmakers as being too good for foreign investors, so nothing is getting done.

Why not just fund the development themselves? They could, but the mullahs have elected to spend the money now rather than make investments that will not produce revenues for four to six years or more. They are investing around half the money needed just to maintain production, around $3 billion a year.

Let's look at a quote from Mohammed Hadi Nejad-Hosseinian, Iran's deputy oil minister for international affairs: "If the government does not control the consumption of oil products in Iran ... and at the same time, if the projects for increasing the capacity of the oil and protection of the oil wells will not happen, within 10 years, there will not be any oil for export." That's from their guy, not a Western academic.


When An Enemy Is Self-Destructing, Stand Aside
Iran produced over 6 billion barrels of oil before the revolution in 1979. They now produce around 4 billion barrels a year. They are currently producing about 5% below their quota, which shows they are at their limits under current capacity. And production at their old fields is waning. The world recovery rate is about 35% from oil fields.

Iran's is an abnormally low 24% to 27%. Normally, you pump natural gas back into an aging field (called reinjection) in order to get higher yields. Iran has enormous reserves of natural gas. Seems like there should be a solution.

However, if the National Iranian Oil Company (NOIC) sells it natural gas outside of Iran, it turns a profit. If it sells it in the country, then it can only get the lower, dramatically subsidized price. Guess which it chooses. Even so, internal natural gas demand is growing by 9% a year.

Not surprisingly, at 34 cents a gallon, gasoline demand is rising 10% a year. This week, the government moved to ration supplies to about 22 gallons a month, which does not go far in the large cars preferred by younger Iranians. There have been riots, with people chanting "Death to Ahmadinejad." They take their right to plenty of cheap gas seriously.

There is also widespread smuggling. Ten barrels of gasoline (easily hauled in a pickup) taken into Turkey yields about $3,000 in profit in a country with about that much GDP per person. Let's end with this section from Stern:

"Our survey suggests that Iran's petroleum sector is unlikely to attract investment sufficient to maintain oil exports. Maintaining exports would require foreign investment to increase when it appears to be declining. Other factors contributing to export decline are also intensifying. Demand growth for subsidized petroleum compounds from an ever-larger base. Growth rates for gasoline (11% to 12%), gas (9%) and electric power (7% to 8%) are especially problematic. Oil recovery rates have declined, and, with no remedy in sight for the gas reinjection shortage, this decline may accelerate.

"Depletion rates have increased, and, if investment does not increase, depletion will accelerate. If the regime actually proceeds with LNG exports, oil export decline will accelerate for lack of reinjection gas. In summary, the regime has been incapable of maximizing profit, minimizing cost or constraining explosive demand for subsidized petroleum products. These failures have very substantial economic consequences.

"Despite mismanagement, the Islamic Republic's real oil revenues are nearly their highest ever as rising price compensates for stagnant energy production and declining oil exports. Despite high price, however, population growth has resulted in a 44% decline of real oil revenue per capita since the 1980 price peak. Moreover, virtually all revenue growth has been applied to pet projects, loss-making industries, etc.

If price were to decline, political power sustained by the quadrupling of government spending since 1999 may not be sustainable. Yet we found no evidence that Iran plans fiscal retrenchment or any scheme to sustain oil investment.

"Rather, the government promises 'to put oil revenues on every table,' as if monopoly rents were not already the entree. Backing this promise is a welfare state built on the Soviet model widely understood as a formula for long-run economic suicide.

This includes the five-year plans, misallocation of resources, loss-making state enterprises, subsidized consumption, corruption and oil export dependence that doomed the Soviet experiment. Therefore, the regime's ability to contend with the export decline we project seems limited."

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of mullahs. If gasoline subsidies are 40% of the national budget now, what will they be in seven years at a growth of 10% a year? Can rationing work? No, but it can slow the economy.

Stern concludes that Iran may need nuclear power as their energy supply is dwindling. I find this conclusion rather preposterous, since if they wanted more energy, all they would have to do is allow foreign investment or invest more of their own money in their own fields. If the developed world will simply apply firm sanctions, Iran will have to reconsider its nuclear program, as their ability to finance mischief will erode as the mullahs divert their resources to domestic needs in order to maintain their dwindling popularity.

The cost of their current policies cannot be lost on the youth and educated people of the country. There is almost 14% unemployment among college graduates. Iran looks to me like Russia did in 1988. They were in the process of self-destruction, although few recognized it at the time. Iran is a matter of time.

John Mauldin is president of investment advisory firm Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC. He may be reached by e-mail: John@FrontLineThoughts.com.

Send comments and questions to newsletters@forbes.com.


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InvisibleLordSenate
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: vintage_gonzo]
    #7141566 - 07/07/07 12:02 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

We aren't going to be attacking iran any time soon, im pretty sure. Though many politicians would want us to.

There is no way we could go to another war so soon after what has happened in Iraq, and a war with Iran would be no quick one by any means.


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OfflineTylerDurden
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deleted [Re: LordSenate]
    #7141585 - 07/07/07 12:10 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

deleted


--------------------


Edited by TylerDurden (12/18/07 08:54 PM)


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InvisibleLordSenate
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: TylerDurden]
    #7141590 - 07/07/07 12:12 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

cant do that anymore, unfortunately


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OfflineTylerDurden
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deleted [Re: LordSenate]
    #7141593 - 07/07/07 12:13 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

deleted


--------------------


Edited by TylerDurden (12/18/07 08:55 PM)


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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: vintage_gonzo]
    #7141596 - 07/07/07 12:17 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

The Iranian regime throws free and subsidized stuff at its population in order to keep people happy and to stifle dissent.

Iran is our enemy...so how best to fight them? Their economic troubles might cause more harm and consternation than any bomb we could drop.


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: vintage_gonzo]
    #7141626 - 07/07/07 12:30 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

I am so sick of the middle east, we need to just leave the towel heads alone...

And Ive been hearing about this "peoples revolution" in Iran since i was in high school..... we could give all the people in Iran free handguns and bullets and they would STILL not do shit...Ive written off the people of Iran. PUSSIES


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7141640 - 07/07/07 12:35 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

I'm totally for ceasing all meddling in the Middle East as well. My only concern with that scenario is China and its quest for influence and resources. If we leave will they move in?


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Offlinevintage_gonzo
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #7141674 - 07/07/07 12:45 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

of course they would. what makes you think they arent already? they are tirelessly striving for oil contracts in Iraq and are giving guns and weapons to the insurgents. the whole reason the middle east is a clusterfuck is that everyone wants control of it.


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #7141718 - 07/07/07 12:58 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

RandalFlagg said:
I'm totally for ceasing all meddling in the Middle East as well.  My only concern with that scenario is China and its quest for influence and resources.  If we leave will they move in?




But china having more resources could result in more cheaper plastic dog shit for us to buy at walmart:grin:


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: lonestar2004]
    #7141734 - 07/07/07 01:03 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

:lol:

Actually, the rise of China is the greatest threat to America's economic and military might.  They hold a lot of our public debt and they are becoming more powerful by the day.  They could have us by the balls in 20-30 years.  I think we should do everything we can to counter them.


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InvisibleLordSenate
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #7141766 - 07/07/07 01:13 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

unfortunately if we go to war with iran, aside from dropping a nuke, i dont see things turning out pretty.

They are the ones supplying the new ieds that insurgents in iraq are using, and they are already have seen the positive aspects of the hit and run techniques are working against us.

Not to mention its not like iran is extremly weak military wise anyways.


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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: LordSenate]
    #7141769 - 07/07/07 01:15 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

I don't see the U.S. being able to sustain a ground invasion against Iran. The best we could do would be targeted bombings of military installations, etc.. in my opinion.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #7141809 - 07/07/07 01:33 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

RandalFlagg said:
The Iranian regime throws free and subsidized stuff at its population in order to keep people happy and to stifle dissent.

Iran is our enemy...so how best to fight them? Their economic troubles might cause more harm and consternation than any bomb we could drop.




Can you say Venezuela? Same shit, different continent. Same end result. When Chavez runs out of stuff to steal they will be quite fucked, too.


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InvisibleJonnyOnTheSpot
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #7141855 - 07/07/07 01:53 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

RandalFlagg said:
I'm totally for ceasing all meddling in the Middle East as well. My only concern with that scenario is China and its quest for influence and resources. If we leave will they move in?


]

that's the thing, if we just left the middle east for good and let it's people just sort of rot away, then most of our problems with muslim terrorism would probably cease to exist. we can't leave though because we need that oil they have. the only way we can leave the middle east is if we develop alternate energy sources first. until then the government will position itself to have current and future sources of oil lined up. that means some sort of regime change in iran at some point in the future. it's a long term strategic plan to maintain economic and military dominance through resource control that our country wouldn't have to worry about if we would just create some sort of alternate fuel sources. the truth of the matter is that development of alternate renewable energy sources is the key to peace in the future, and whoever does so will have a great deal of power.


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: TylerDurden]
    #7142047 - 07/07/07 02:45 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

TylerDurden said:
It would be over real quick if we dropped another Baby Boy.




Fortunately, some people on this planet are rational enough to ensure that this won't happen. Give me one justifiable reason why America should bomb Iran. :rolleyes:


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: vintage_gonzo]
    #7142052 - 07/07/07 02:46 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

vintage_gonzo said:
...and are giving guns and weapons to the insurgents.




Substantiation?


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:


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OfflineThe_Red_Crayon
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: vintage_gonzo]
    #7142439 - 07/07/07 04:39 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Iran has plenty of Oil and Natural gas deposits, but they dont have enough foreign investment to refine it, therefore most of the oil they pump is sold on the global market-- which means rationed gas for the populace

Here comes Chavez to bail out Irans ass, It looks like a coalition is slowly evolving against western interests.


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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
    #7142453 - 07/07/07 04:46 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Chavez is such a fucking douchebag.


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OfflineThe_Red_Crayon
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #7142467 - 07/07/07 04:49 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

and he's pulling the Iranians fat out of the fire.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSDAH32095820070703

Quote:

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Venezuela has agreed to sell gasoline to Iran, which last week launched a delayed fuel rationing scheme, Venezuela's energy minister said in remarks published on Tuesday.

"Yes, the Iranians have asked to buy gasoline (from us) and we have accepted this request," Rafael Ramirez told the Sharq newspaper in an interview.

"I can not give you more information," he said, when asked how much fuel Iran would purchase.

The minister accompanied Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on an official visit this week to the Islamic Republic, which despite its huge oil reserves imports 40 percent of its gasoline needs as it has a shortage of domestic refining capacity.





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OfflineTylerDurden
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deleted [Re: fireworks_god]
    #7142517 - 07/07/07 05:02 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

deleted


--------------------


Edited by TylerDurden (12/18/07 08:55 PM)


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: TylerDurden]
    #7142636 - 07/07/07 05:38 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

TylerDurden said:


Please tell me Mr. Fireworks where I said we should bomb Iran?
I said is it would be over very fast if we dropped a Baby Boy.

Edit: :rolleyes:




What, you two aren't talking to each other any more?

As far as reasons to bomb Iran right now, they are holding some of our citizens hostage again, and they are assisting an enemy in attacking our troops.  Is it enough?  Not yet.  Then there is the silly little nuke thing going on.  That's the biggie.  Not yet, kiddies, not yet, but it could well be coming.  No nukes, just hundreds and hundreds of loverly little bunker busters and MOABs.


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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: zappaisgod]
    #7142689 - 07/07/07 05:55 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)



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Offlinevintage_gonzo
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: fireworks_god]
    #7142755 - 07/07/07 06:18 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

fireworks_god said:
Quote:

vintage_gonzo said:
...and are giving guns and weapons to the insurgents.




Substantiation?




are you kidding me? its been everywhere in the news....heres one i am ironically looking at now(http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/6/10/233124/745)

ask me for more links if you need it, they are everywhere.


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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: Luddite]
    #7142894 - 07/07/07 07:17 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)



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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: Luddite]
    #7142965 - 07/07/07 07:43 PM (14 years, 6 months ago)

Oh fuck...it's Great_Satan.


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OfflineViveka
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Re: Mullahs Gone Wild-Iran Self Destructing [Re: Luddite]
    #7145027 - 07/08/07 04:52 AM (14 years, 6 months ago)



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