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Offlinedjnoktirnal
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Stock Market CRASH???
    #6616690 - 02/27/07 01:07 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Just now seeing on FOX Stocks falling FAST DOW is down 500 already, NASDAQ down 100;
Is this the beginning?

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Offlinecmoney
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Registered: 12/20/06
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: djnoktirnal]
    #6616747 - 02/27/07 01:20 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

lets hope not.

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InvisibleOneMoreRobot3021
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: cmoney]
    #6616750 - 02/27/07 01:21 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

To the nearest tall window!


--------------------
Acid doesn't give you truths; it builds machines that push the envelope of perception. Whatever revelations came to me then have dissolved like skywriting. All I really know is that those few years saddled me with a faith in the redemptive potential of the imagination which, however flat, stale and unprofitable the world seems to me now, I cannot for the life of me shake.

-Erik Davis

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InvisibleCalifornia
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: djnoktirnal]
    #6616798 - 02/27/07 01:39 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

China in a Bull Market!!
China in a Bull Market!!

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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: djnoktirnal]
    #6616850 - 02/27/07 01:56 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

I don't know if this is the beginning or not.

I do know I've been stocking up on gold and silver coins for some time and advising others to do the same. The time of reckoning is not far off.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: djnoktirnal]
    #6617173 - 02/27/07 03:39 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Man, today was terrible!  There is no telling what will happen from here.  Near-term action will likely be determined based upon how the Chinese markets play out overnight.  It was their 9% loss last night that triggered this global selloff today.  If it continues tonight, our domestic market will likely follow step over the coming week (and perhaps much longer if concurrent factors don't improve, such as expected reduction in GDP growth from 4% to 1%, the bottoming housing market, subprime lending issues, and geopolitical tensions think Iran). 

The worst of it for me is that I added to a position yesterday, bringing myself up to 95% invested... meaning I had (have) hardly any free cash on the sidelines to put to use buying these stocks during and after their fall! :crying:

The most interesting piece of anecdotal evidence I've read all day (and I've been readin' a shitload), is as follows:
Quote:

History shows that four-year extensions of bull markets, out of deep oversolds, often morph into disaster: 1932-36 (1937 crash); 1957-61 (1962 crash); and 1982-86 (1987 crash). We're well into four years in the current stretch.




I wish I would have sold half my positions this morning upon the initial drop... instead I'm going to have to rotate out of my riskier holdings tomorrow and wednesday, perhaps to put that money right back to work in consumer staples with paid dividends such as Coca-Cola and Proctor & Gamble, hoping that this recent panic will cause others to also bet on the more conservative companies that don't get hit during hard economic times. Alternately, if things just look too dicey I'll keep that cash in the bank 'til things settle down again.

It is crazy how quickly these things can turn - and I've had the lesson reinforced today, that one should never invest with the money they need to survive.  Discretionary funds only, as they could vaporize in a matter of minutes the way 4% of my portfolio  (nearly 1% of my entire net worth) did today in a matter of hours! :nonono:


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--------------------
··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...

Edited by geokills (02/27/07 09:21 PM)

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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: geokills]
    #6617206 - 02/27/07 03:52 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

It'll straighten itself out. :grin:


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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OfflineApJunkie
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #6617258 - 02/27/07 04:08 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Ahhh fuck me.... there goes my college money....

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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: geokills]
    #6617345 - 02/27/07 04:34 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

I've had the lesson reinforced today, that one should never invest with the money they need to survive




Hey, at least you didn't purchase equities with borrowed money.

It's also a good idea to keep at least 10% of your money in precious metals stocks as insurance against a bad economy. Personally, I have 75% of my portfolio there but that is part of my plan to profit from the coming Bush recession. It's never a bad move to bet against anything that man touches.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: California]
    #6617490 - 02/27/07 05:20 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Oregon said:
China in a Bull Market!!
China in a Bull Market!!




That's funny. Except it's a Bear Market when stocks go down.


--------------------

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OfflineBoaz
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #6617588 - 02/27/07 05:55 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Is what beginning?

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InvisibleDarkcloud
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: djnoktirnal]
    #6618670 - 02/27/07 10:45 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

The Shanghai Stock Exchange started up about 3 to 4 hours ago. It was the one that fell off 9% yesterday. Anyways, it's currently around noon over there. Everything has pretty much calmed down, and at the moment they are showing a minor gain in their composite index (+0.55%).

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ESSEC


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:poison: :poison: :poison:

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Offlinegregorio
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: Darkcloud]
    #6619255 - 02/28/07 01:31 AM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Ive been waiting for a major correction and I'm glad it happened.

:wink:

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InvisibleDarkcloud
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: Darkcloud]
    #6619368 - 02/28/07 02:32 AM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Update: The Shanghai SE closed about 2 hours ago with a gain of 3.94% in their main index.

Unfortunately, the European exchanges are now just opening with 1% to 4% losses in their respective indexes.

Oh well. Most US and Chinese equities are still overinflated anyways, so a decent drop will have to come eventually...whether it's today or months away. Perhaps it is just better to go ahead and get it over with so we can move on...


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:poison: :poison: :poison:

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OfflineSchwip
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: Darkcloud]
    #6619512 - 02/28/07 04:57 AM (17 years, 1 month ago)

How will this effect the general economy?

Think that we(the US) will we see a slowdown worse than '01?


--------------------
--------------------------------

" If the sky were to suddenly open up there would be no law. There would be no rule. There would only be you and your memories... the choices you've made, and the people you've touched. If this world were to end there would only be you and him and no-one else. "

..............

"MAN! You know there aint no such thing as left over crack!"


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InvisibleCalifornia
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #6620156 - 02/28/07 11:56 AM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
Quote:

Oregon said:
China in a Bull Market!!
China in a Bull Market!!




That's funny. Except it's a Bear Market when stocks go down.



Thanks, by Bull I meant American.

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OfflinePhred
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: djnoktirnal]
    #6620311 - 02/28/07 12:58 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Oh noes! The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now at levels last seen in December of 2006! All the gains made in the last ten weeks gone! Whatever shall we do?




Phred


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InvisibleOneMoreRobot3021
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: Phred]
    #6620317 - 02/28/07 01:00 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Does this mean I have to dig up last year's Calendar and rewind my brain?

:confused:


--------------------
Acid doesn't give you truths; it builds machines that push the envelope of perception. Whatever revelations came to me then have dissolved like skywriting. All I really know is that those few years saddled me with a faith in the redemptive potential of the imagination which, however flat, stale and unprofitable the world seems to me now, I cannot for the life of me shake.

-Erik Davis

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: OneMoreRobot3021]
    #6620513 - 02/28/07 01:51 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

I heard Alex Rodriguez is gonna have a helluva year in 2006. Easy #1 pick. He's sure to show Jeter who's da man.


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InvisibleDarkcloud
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: djnoktirnal]
    #6620784 - 02/28/07 02:54 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

The Dow ended up 0.43% today. It looks like it is stable once again. :thumbup:


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:poison: :poison: :poison:

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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: djnoktirnal]
    #6620786 - 02/28/07 02:54 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Markets around the world have been rallying for months. Since Alan Greenspan was carrying his other briefcase on a Wednesday at 3 o'clock investors saw that as a signal to take profits. When other people saw what was happening many of them rushed for the exits mainly so they don't have to explain to their clients why their hedge funds aren't performing.
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/view/mw/en/page94?oid=75794&sn=Detail


Edited by Luddite (02/28/07 02:59 PM)

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InvisibleIcelander
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: geokills]
    #6625939 - 03/01/07 08:55 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

By staying far away from stocks I have retired at 53. I don't ever read the news or watch the tube and I don't worry about my money. This is the first I have heard about the stock market.:thumbup:


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC

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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: Icelander]
    #6626038 - 03/01/07 09:18 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

For me, I have more faith in my working ability, and the foresight to save money (23% of my base). I would rather put my money in my safe, then throw it at stocks or bonds.


When I want to gamble, I go to Las Vegas.............


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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InvisibleIcelander
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #6627827 - 03/02/07 11:46 AM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Similar to my plan which worked so well I could hardly believe it. I saved closer to 50% of my wages while working part time. I found that by not spending money I was saving it. I bought only what I really could use and took my time to make sure. I dropped out of the American consumer mentality and found I hardly had to work to save and now don't have to work at all. Good plan dude.:thumbup:


--------------------
"Don't believe everything you think". -Anom.

" All that lives was born to die"-Anom.

With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
Ecclesiastes circa 350 BC

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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #6628050 - 03/02/07 01:25 PM (17 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
For me, I have more faith in my working ability, and the foresight to save money (23% of my base). I would rather put my money in my safe, then throw it at stocks or bonds.


When I want to gamble, I go to Las Vegas.............




What will you do if the U.S. dollar crashes?


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zorbman]
    #6628209 - 03/02/07 02:15 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

What will you do?


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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Offlinegluke bastid
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #6628300 - 03/02/07 02:46 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Live in poverty like most people do


--------------------
:hst:
Society in every form is a blessing,
but government at its best is but a necessary evil
 
- Thomas Paine

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InvisibleOneMoreRobot3021
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: gluke bastid]
    #6628302 - 03/02/07 02:47 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

That doesn't sound fun at all.


--------------------
Acid doesn't give you truths; it builds machines that push the envelope of perception. Whatever revelations came to me then have dissolved like skywriting. All I really know is that those few years saddled me with a faith in the redemptive potential of the imagination which, however flat, stale and unprofitable the world seems to me now, I cannot for the life of me shake.

-Erik Davis

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Invisiblezorbman
blarrr
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #6628306 - 03/02/07 02:48 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Quote:

What will you do?




A better question would be, "What have you done?".

I have bought a large number of silver and gold coins to replace the green paper rectangles which are backed by nothing but the overextended U.S. military. I have already made a substantial profit but the main goal is wealth preservation.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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Offlinegluke bastid
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: OneMoreRobot3021]
    #6628307 - 03/02/07 02:49 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

I agree wholeheartedly


--------------------
:hst:
Society in every form is a blessing,
but government at its best is but a necessary evil
 
- Thomas Paine

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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zorbman]
    #6628393 - 03/02/07 03:17 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Great point. I'd have to assume, of course, that the value of the gold and silver would decrease as the wealth of everyone else went down the tubes. At least it would be worth something again some day. :thumbup:


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #6628501 - 03/02/07 03:52 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Yes, during the Great Depression the value of precious metals went down initially along with everything else but rebounded fairly soon eventually greatly exceeding their pre-crash highs.

Even though people would have far less money to spend on PMs after a crash it's important to understand that the PM market is a tiny one relative to the stock market. Since most stocks would be avoided like the plague all that money wants to rush in where it can make money- the PM markets. It would be like trying to fill the Grand Canyon with the contents of the Pacific Ocean. You can imagine what would happen to gold and silver prices under those conditions.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zorbman]
    #6628569 - 03/02/07 04:13 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

If the money has no value in such a situation then would it matter how much of it people are willing to pay? :grin:

I'm trying to commit myself to getting completely out of debt, so that I have all of my bills paid a month in advance, and everything, so then I can start saving money and possibly investing it. I'm looking forward to advancing in my career so that I'm generating more income (probably shouldn't call in two days in a row because of the weather in that case :lol:) as well. I want to own some wooded land and own a custom-built house and have enough to live off of and possibly retire early...

So yeah, I'm not sure if the stock market is something I'd like to get into. Someone had a thread going in The Pub about investing in... damn, what was it... IRA's? Anyways, I know that I would like to keep money simply saved, and then start investing the rest, and possibly converting some of it to precious metal... I really don't know shit about all of this though. :grin:

School me motherfucker!


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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Invisiblezorbman
blarrr
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #6628672 - 03/02/07 04:31 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Quote:

If the money has no value in such a situation then would it matter how much of it people are willing to pay?




Personally, once a financial crisis of the type I am envisioning hits I would consider it extremely foolish to convert any silver or gold into a depreciating currency. Now if someone offers me land or an income-generating asset in exchange for PMs I would strongly consider it if the price is right. (And having something of real and growing value to exchange in that environment would place me in a commanding bargaining position.)

People with real money have historically made fortunes during depressions by snatching up assets at bargain-basement prices and waiting for the turnaround.. I think we are about to see such a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

If there is a general loss of confidence in the currency then silver and gold would prove to be incredibly valuable and would probably be accepted as legal tender once again.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zorbman]
    #6628727 - 03/02/07 04:43 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Yeah, definitely, land is where it is at. Great fucking plan, man, I'm with you all the way as far as that goes. If the stock market is going to crash recently though I'm going to be fucked, not in any position to take advantage of it. :frown: :grin:


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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Invisiblezorbman
blarrr
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #6628750 - 03/02/07 04:50 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

There is still time. As long as you can save a couple hundred dollars or more per month to invest you should be able to parlay that into some real wealth if you play your hand right. Personally, I could use at least another year to get ready. I don't think things will fall apart overnight but the slide has already begun IMO.


--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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OfflineEconomist
in training
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zorbman]
    #6629219 - 03/02/07 06:40 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
If there is a general loss of confidence in the currency then silver and gold would prove to be incredibly valuable and would probably be accepted as legal tender once again.



Why are you predicting a loss of confidence in the dollar? To the best of my knowledge that's never happened on a large scale.

Even during the Great Depression there was actually deflation during 1932 and 1933, not inflation (or hyperinflation) like you would expect during a currency crisis. The highest inflation rate we've had this century came in 1946, and it was 18%, and the result of WWII.

Are you foreseeing a global catastrophe on the scale of WWII?

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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zorbman]
    #6629506 - 03/02/07 08:26 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
There is still time. As long as you can save a couple hundred dollars or more per month to invest you should be able to parlay that into some real wealth if you play your hand right. Personally, I could use at least another year to get ready. I don't think things will fall apart overnight but the slide has already begun IMO.




I think I could get to a point where I'm saving a couple hundred dollars a month every month, but it is going to be two/three months before I'm out of debt if I stay on top of things.

I wonder how much land costs. Of course, after things collapsed the government would still be like "pay taxes or get the fuck off of it", right? Time to invest in a gun as well, it sounds like. :rolleyes:


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: Economist]
    #6629514 - 03/02/07 08:28 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

I just read an article that was alleging that these foreign countries have a ton of our money, basically being stored. It suggested that the administration will have the Federal Reserve just print more and more money in order to fund its projects, and then through some manner or another get this money out of the country and out of circulation to ensure that inflation basically doesn't happen.

Now, if an event were to make it so that this money started coming back into play, wouldn't that spike a hell of a lot of inflation?

I don't know shit and am just speculating based on what I have read so far, which is basically that one article. :lol:


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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zorbman]
    #6629720 - 03/02/07 09:36 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Keep in mind, though, that the government can just waltz in and confiscate your gold. I guess its happened before.


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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zorbman]
    #6629766 - 03/02/07 09:59 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Not trying to be arrogant, but if the US dollar is worth shit, chances are, the rest of the worlds currency is shit!


I guess I would go to plan B......dug in, in a bunker


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #6630934 - 03/03/07 09:04 AM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
Not trying to be arrogant, but if the US dollar is worth shit, chances are, the rest of the worlds currency is shit!




The Euro?


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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #6631013 - 03/03/07 09:59 AM (17 years, 30 days ago)

If the US dollar is worth nothing, that impact alone, would almost completely devastate most major economies in the world, due to the level of interdependence amongst each country.


The euro is a relatively young currency; although worth more, versus the dollar, its impact is no were near in scope compared to the US dollar. Most of the economic well being of the world depends on a healthy US economy.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zorbman]
    #6631112 - 03/03/07 11:00 AM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Quote:

zorbman said:
Quote:

What will you do?




A better question would be, "What have you done?".

I have bought a large number of silver and gold coins to replace the green paper rectangles which are backed by nothing but the overextended U.S. military. I have already made a substantial profit but the main goal is wealth preservation.




Even better than gold. I own a place to live and have a years worth of food in storage.


--------------------
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With much wisdom comes much sorrow,
The more knowledge, the more grief.
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #6631306 - 03/03/07 12:14 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Oh, I don't argue that. :grin:


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: gluke bastid]
    #6631321 - 03/03/07 12:24 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

For all the panic mongers and nervous nellies rushing to spout about the virtues of having a brick you can hold, the price of gold has plummeted from around $685 to just over $640 in the last week, a 6% plunge for the math challenged.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #6631330 - 03/03/07 12:26 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

I forgot the link
http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html#30_day_gold_price

Which also shows the price at just around what it was in January. Like the stocks. Fucking relax kiddies, there aint no apocalypse.


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #6631353 - 03/03/07 12:35 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

I want to own land damnit! :mad:

I found a website, http://www.realtor.com that lists it but I'm trying to find information on how much one would have to pay on the land to the government... yearly fees and costs and all of that... does anyone know?


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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #6631391 - 03/03/07 12:52 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
I forgot the link
http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html#30_day_gold_price

Which also shows the price at just around what it was in January. Like the stocks. Fucking relax kiddies, there aint no apocalypse.




Its surprising how paranoid they are. A little bump in the stock market indices after they having been going up for years and they think its the end of the world.

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OfflineFrenchSocialist
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: djnoktirnal]
    #6631409 - 03/03/07 01:01 PM (17 years, 30 days ago)

If anything I'd be more worried about the trade deficit then fluctuating stocks because I highly doubt a lot of these countries enjoy giving us goods and services for free.

I'm surprised so many think the US is going to be able to take on the world economically, when our military can't even handle a third world nation like Iraq. I've been saying for a long time that America's been riding on luck (i.e. geographic blessings) and the equation of our economic prosperity with the underlying system is a case of post hoc reasoning.

BTW, what does our economy consist of exactly? Fast food, retail, and small businesses? Do we really think small businesses here are going to be any match for china's endless supply of expendable labor over-seas? Think about it.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: FrenchSocialist]
    #6631514 - 03/03/07 01:48 PM (17 years, 29 days ago)

You're French Socialist, what the fuck do you care?


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OfflineEconomist
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #6631544 - 03/03/07 01:55 PM (17 years, 29 days ago)

Quote:

fireworks_god said:
I just read an article that was alleging that these foreign countries have a ton of our money, basically being stored. It suggested that the administration will have the Federal Reserve just print more and more money in order to fund its projects, and then through some manner or another get this money out of the country and out of circulation to ensure that inflation basically doesn't happen.




Yeah, I see this claim made a lot, and it's 100% false.

The Federal Reserve doesn't print money "for the administration". The way the administration pays for its deficits is through the sales of Treasury notes, bills, and bonds.

Similarly, other countries don't actually own a lot of US currency, that would be impracticle. Instead they own a lot of Treasury notes, bills, and bonds.

The Federal Reserve does create more money, but they do it in response to economic demand for more money, not in response to government need. When the Federal Reserve creates money, they do it by buying Treasury notes from private investors using money that didn't exist before (this is called debt monetization, if you want to look it up). If they did this a whole ton, then we would have a lot of inflation. But they don't, because they're pretty good at what they do. This system has been working well since the early 1980s, and we've seen ultra-low inflation as a result.

Because a Treasury note is a loan that the government owes a private investor, whenever the Fed buys such a loan with new money, they've relieved the government of some of its debt, and actually eliminated a part of the national deficit. Thus, there is a small, but tangible, taxpayer benefit to debt monetization (beyond the usualy increasing money supply to keep the economy going).

If the foreign nations who hold a lot of Treasury notes decided to sell them all off, there's a two-fold problem.

The first is, the notes are all loans, of the type where you pay the government $50 today for $100 in 20 years (or something along those lines). If foreign governments suddenly tried to dump them all, the nature of the loan means there's a built-in defense mechanism against hyper-inflation. Even if the foreign governments sell them at a loss, say $1 for the initial $50 loan, buyers would still only buy them because there's a payoff down the road of $100, meaning that investors still believe $100 in the future will be worth more than $1 today. This mechanism serves as a guarantee against hyper-inflation, as a situation that results in $100 in 20 years being less than $1 today would only prevent foreign governments from selling off their Treasury notes.

Second, the governments that hold our currency do so for a reason. China needs to hold our currency in order to ensure the trade balance. If they sold off our money, they'd kill their own economy. Germany is in a similar situation.

As a result, I'd say it's very unlikely that we'll see hyper-inflation in the dollar anytime soon.

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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #6631545 - 03/03/07 01:55 PM (17 years, 29 days ago)

The point I was getting at regarding the euro, though, is that, from what I've gathered thusfar (I really don't know shit about any of this really :smirk:) is that the euro has a pretty solid base, being pretty new and all, and that the European economy offers it a lot of support. Sure, the U.S. economy goes down the tubes and everyone is fucked in a lot of ways, but from one thing I read, if people started using the euro more as a global currency, that would send the U.S. dollar down the fucking tubes. :grin:

That article went on to suggest that this is why we invaded Iraq to take Saddam out, because of his food for oil program or whatever. :shrug:


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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #6631585 - 03/03/07 02:10 PM (17 years, 29 days ago)

I think that they may have been pulling your leg a little


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #6631595 - 03/03/07 02:14 PM (17 years, 29 days ago)

Its possible. About the euro, or about taking Saddam out for threatening the U.S. dollar? :grin:


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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #6631647 - 03/03/07 02:31 PM (17 years, 29 days ago)

All of the above.

Actually, Saddam had a "bribes for UN officials" program, not "food for oil". I believe Benon Sevon is one small step away from being an international fugitive.


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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #6631672 - 03/03/07 02:41 PM (17 years, 29 days ago)

I need to do some more reading on the subject. :grin:

Anyone know about taxes/fees on land?


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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #6631681 - 03/03/07 02:47 PM (17 years, 29 days ago)

They are called property taxes and they vary wildly from place to place.


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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #6631872 - 03/03/07 04:19 PM (17 years, 29 days ago)

People have been saying the sky is falling for years on this forum. I've gone from having $37K outside of retirement and about $60K in retirement in 2000 to about $300K outside of retirement and over $200K in retirement now. This doesn't include my $210K three bedroom house that I bought for $109K which I own outright allowing me to be free of any mortgage or rent. I'm in demand and can hardly take any vacation. Our companies' clients chase after us too much bowing down to me and telling me what a genius I am and begging me to do more work for them. I'll feel bad when I decide to retire early. They really need a brilliant man like me to do their work for them.

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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: Luddite]
    #6631882 - 03/03/07 04:24 PM (17 years, 29 days ago)

So what do you do, precisely?


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OfflineFrenchSocialist
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: Economist]
    #6632072 - 03/03/07 05:34 PM (17 years, 29 days ago)

China began moving away from the dollar over a year ago.

In any event, trying to bully china into just eating our debt is going to prove to be a very bad move very shortly I suspect:

Quote:

In terms of economic power, Americans tend to exaggerate China's role as a seller and exporter while underappreciating its activities as a buyer, importer, and investor. And they underestimate China's intellectual, leadership, diplomatic, cultural, and other symbolic power. If U.S. policymakers continue to view China's power in substantially coercive terms when it is actually growing most rapidly in the economic and intellectual domains, they will be playing the wrong game, on the wrong field, with the wrong team.




The Faces of Chinese Power.

Though it wouldn't be the first time the US has underestimated china:

Quote:

MISUNDERESTIMATIONS

Assessing China's growing power incorrectly has always proved to be hazardous. U.S. policymakers have underestimated China's power at least twice since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, once catastrophically and another time with serious consequences for U.S. credibility. In the fall of 1950, one U.S. official dismissed the possibility that the war-weary government in Beijing would intervene to stop the United States' drive to unify Korea. "I don't think China wants to be chopped up," he said. But he was wrong, and this and other misjudgments led to Beijing's intervention in the Korean War, at enormous human cost to China, the United States, and the Korean people on both sides of the 38th Parallel. President Bill Clinton also underestimated China. In 1993, his administration threatened to suspend normal tariff treatment if Beijing did not improve its human rights record within a year. China proved tougher than expected, and the Clinton administration made an embarrassing U-turn as the ultimatum was about to expire. The episode convinced the Chinese that Washington's tough talk on human rights was little more than campaign rhetoric and that for the United States human rights were an interest secondary to strategic and business concerns.




It should go without saying that underestimating china is a bad idea. The country is the largest, culturally among the oldest, its wealth is growing at an unprecedented rate and its labor is both endless and expendable. To simply dismiss china's power is over-confident.


--------------------


"Both liberty and equality are among the primary goals pursued by human beings through many centuries; but total liberty for wolves is death to the lambs" -- Isaiah Berlin

Edited by FrenchSocialist (03/03/07 05:37 PM)

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Offlinedjnoktirnal
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: Luddite]
    #6661798 - 03/12/07 03:20 PM (17 years, 20 days ago)

Quote:

Its surprising how paranoid they are. A little bump in the stock market indices after they having been going up for years and they think its the end of the world.




not paranoid, just hopeful.


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OfflinePhred
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: djnoktirnal]
    #6805426 - 04/18/07 05:44 PM (16 years, 11 months ago)

A month and a half after the opening post in this thread, the Dow closes at a new record high -- 12,804.

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!





Phred


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OfflineFocusHawaii
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: Phred]
    #6807139 - 04/19/07 12:36 AM (16 years, 11 months ago)

At the same time, the US dollar fell to half a British pound due to the housing market.

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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: FocusHawaii]
    #6807273 - 04/19/07 01:33 AM (16 years, 11 months ago)

It is much more than just the housing market at work here.

This is part of a long-term trend. The U.S. economy is in deep trouble thanks to our feeble-minded President and years of neglect.

Dollar slides to 26-year low against pound:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dollar-hits-26-year-low-vs/story.aspx?guid=%7B938DAA61-58D9-4DF6-960A-7D27C5B727A4%7D


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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OfflineGnosticWarrior
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: zorbman]
    #6807400 - 04/19/07 02:52 AM (16 years, 11 months ago)

Just saw this thread. I'm an investor and have to always keep on top of things. Here's a great article regarding home prices and interest rates: http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+April+2007.htm

Skip past the wordy intro.

Part of being a value investor is to buy assets that are mispriced. Buying something worth $1 trading at $.50 today. Misplaced fear creates such opportunities. Where I live the median home goes for $600,000+, The Dow reaching a record high, with our budget deficits, seems like a bubble waiting to burst right? Yeah, I thought so too! I keep track of people like Warren Buffett and Jim Rogers, and they think the value of the dollar would be going down. But the folks at GaveKal research, their reason for why the RE and Stock market is at record highs and may continue makes sense to me. I highly recommend anyone to read their books "Our Brave New World" and "The End Is Not Nigh" Available at Amazon.com or here: http://gavekal.com/page6.cfm

These books explain global monetary policies and why European currencies are high versus the dollar and why Asian currencies are low. Our budget deficits are actually good for the U.S. Economy.

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OfflineFrenchSocialist
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: GnosticWarrior]
    #6809595 - 04/19/07 05:22 PM (16 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

GnosticWarrior said:
These books explain global monetary policies and why European currencies are high versus the dollar and why Asian currencies are low. Our budget deficits are actually good for the U.S. Economy.




Sure. That's why we're in a trade deficit as well.


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Offline2FiNiTe
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: FrenchSocialist]
    #6809682 - 04/19/07 05:45 PM (16 years, 11 months ago)

People:shitstorm:George Bush


--------------------
"Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants. We know more about war that we know about peace, more about killing that we know about living."

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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: 2FiNiTe]
    #6816750 - 04/21/07 06:42 PM (16 years, 11 months ago)
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I'm glad to see more capitalists on this forum. You can't trust socialist governments. It usually takes a war to get them out of power. BTW, Bush is usually the one given credit for the dividend tax cuts which allow a large portion of my dividends to be qualified (listed on my 1099s) for the 15% tax rate. Over $3K of dividends for one of my accounts was return of capital, too (tax free until you sell the investment).

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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: Luddite]
    #6816764 - 04/21/07 06:48 PM (16 years, 11 months ago)

The continally falling dollar that has been falling for the past couple centuries while US citizens continually get richer and more successful means that you need to be invested in things that benefit from inflation, like real estate, oil and natural gas, metals/mining --> http://www.geocities.com/dividends4all/

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Re: Stock Market CRASH??? [Re: Luddite]
    #6821824 - 04/23/07 03:29 AM (16 years, 11 months ago)

That was a nice article. :thumbup:

I think Socialism is a good concept, but not practical.  The politicians of those countries buy their votes with promised social programs, increasing debt as a percentage of GDP, and then raising taxes.  This only stifles their economy.  Who cares if the Euro is a lot stronger than the US$?

The American Captialist system where we have big gaps in wealth disparity, trade & budget deficits, and a weak currency.  But overall as a whole our economy is doing well and the wealth is increasing.  Those who are getting rich, feel a sense of gratitude and want to give back at their own discretion thru non-profit organizations and not thru forced socialist programs.  I think this is a more equitable approach!  We have the freedom to choose.

I guess only time will tell who get's to laugh last.  And who had the better model.

I like divdends too.  I currently own RWT and PWE as my main sources. 

I follow some of the money managers here:  http://www.gurufocus.com/ListGuru.php

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