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OfflineSchwip
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1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036
    #6588609 - 02/20/07 07:30 AM (14 years, 2 months ago)

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Technology/Science/story?id=2885820&page=1


Can Earth Dodge Asteroid Heading This Way?

BY GREG CROFT

Feb. 19, 2007 — Circle your calendar. April 13th, 2036 could be a really, really bad day on planet Earth.

A group of astronauts and engineers warns that an asteroid may pass uncomfortably close to Earth that day. The chances it will actually hit are just one in 45,000, but even at those odds, the scientists warn, the United Nations should consider a response.

Potential Threat

The scientists met this past weekend in San Francisco to discuss the potential threats asteroids pose to the Earth and what can be done to prevent a possible collision.

Most feared is Apophis, a large asteroid that will pass within 10,000 miles of Earth around 2029 and even closer in 2036.

Dr. Dan Barry, a retired astronaut, told ABC News, "Even if the probability is low of an asteroid hitting Earth, if it has the potential to have a significant impact, then it has to be looked at. It is the absolutely responsible thing to do. In fact, it would be irresponsible not to do so."

Barry said more research is needed so that when a potentially dangerous asteroid is found, there is a plan in place. He said it is therefore important to start the search for asteroids now, to allow enough time to effectively deal with them.

Scientists believe that if advance warnings of dangerous asteroids like Apophis can be made decades in advance, there will be enough time to try and knock them off course.

Suddenly, Bruce Willis on a mission to stop a devastating asteroid from destroying Earth, as he did in the movie "Armageddon," does not seem as far-fetched.

What Are The Solutions?

Nobody knows for sure what it would take to push a massive asteroid off its course, but the theoretical possibilities include detonating weapons on an asteroid's surface or using gravitational pull to alter a possible collision course.


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InvisibleDNKYD
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Schwip]
    #6588966 - 02/20/07 12:11 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

I think this is the one that will make a pass in 2020 something and if it comes within that small window it will catch Earth's gravity just right so as to put it in a 7/6 Earth Orbit setting it up for a collision with us 7 years down the line.


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InvisibleBrainiac
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: DNKYD]
    #6589165 - 02/20/07 01:42 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

We won't have to worry about global warming, if it happens.


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InvisibleDNKYD
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Brainiac]
    #6589171 - 02/20/07 01:45 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

We'll have the technology by then to avert the disaster.


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Invisiblejewunit
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Schwip]
    #6589198 - 02/20/07 01:54 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

That's what nukes are for.


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 *DELETED* [Re: jewunit]
    #6589204 - 02/20/07 01:56 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Post deleted by Ferris

Reason for deletion: .



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OfflineColbadol
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Schwip]
    #6589213 - 02/20/07 01:58 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

smoke all the cigarettes you want, youre gonna be hit by an asteroid.


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Invisiblekoraks
Registered: 06/02/03
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Ferris]
    #6589217 - 02/20/07 01:59 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

So how are we going to get your foot into outer space?


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InvisibleFerris
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 *DELETED* [Re: koraks]
    #6589219 - 02/20/07 01:59 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Post deleted by Ferris

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OfflineMaverick
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Ferris]
    #6589250 - 02/20/07 02:15 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Won't do crap to a large asteroid. Also the burying a nuke idea is stupid as well, you're not going to have a perfect split, you're going to have a huge crater on the asteroid like when we do tests on earth. Especially if it's one of those asteroids that are the size of a state.


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OfflineColbadol
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Maverick]
    #6589265 - 02/20/07 02:22 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

im talking out of my ass here, but i remember reading an article in a discover magazine a couple years ago about how scientists were figuring out how to use nuclear explosions to power spacecraft.

the way it works is that it holds multiple nuclear warheads, and it shoots one off so that it explodes about 100m away from the craft, and it keeps shooting out nukes and detonating them over and over.

multiple explosions.

especially if we use hydrogen fusion bombs...this is definately possible. fission bombs arent that impressive on a HUGE asteroid scale, but fusion bombs? definately.


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Invisibledurban_poison
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Colbadol]
    #6589280 - 02/20/07 02:28 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

i remember hearing something about using the sun's energy to move asteroids off course. im not sure if it was solar sails. maybe it was something about magnifiying the suns energy at the asteroid. either way i will be in my 60's by the time it gets close. my son/daughter thats on the way, well thats a different story.


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InvisibleGumby
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Schwip]
    #6589497 - 02/20/07 03:59 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

A group of astronauts and engineers warns that an asteroid may pass uncomfortably close to Earth that day.




LOLz @ astronauts predicting asteroid strike probability. If I'm not mistaken, that is a job typically left up to astronomers/astrophysicists.

Horray for reporting accuracy, ABC!


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Invisiblejewunit
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Maverick]
    #6589526 - 02/20/07 04:11 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Well if you know that it's going to come even remotely close, you send a nuke at it before it's remotely close. I think we all understand the whole equal and opposite reaction deal, it's not going to fucking send it in the opposite direction of it's current path, but we're talking about HUGE distances, and only altering a path slightly would be enough to be effective. Now I'm no god damn physicist, but it seems logical that it would be effective enough to save us from getting our shit really fucked up.


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OfflineAnnomM
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Schwip]
    #6589532 - 02/20/07 04:15 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

I designed a method to deflect that asteroid, Apophis, as a study project. We worked on it with 7 students for around 80 hours. It was nothing close to the real deal of designing such a mission, but I got a decent understanding of orbit predictions and different methods to deflect an asteroid.

We used a mass(1000kg) in front of the asteroid to accelerate it and thus change its orbit. We used an ion thruster to prevent our mass to crash onto the asteroid. We wrote a computer model to predict the orbit of earth and the asteroid. With that mass in front of Apophis for a few years we were able, according to our model, to prevent a collision with earth.

We sure are able to deflect a large asteroid, but we have to decide to act long before a predicted collision. The question is when the estimated risk(and accuracy of this estimate) is high enough to start spending money on a "save the earth" mission.


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OfflineTameMe
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Annom]
    #6589542 - 02/20/07 04:19 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

i've heard the plan to use gravity to set it off course by flying a large ship next to it for a long time just long enough to set it off course a fraction of a degree or so to make it miss us


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OfflineNobodyCares
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Annom]
    #6589544 - 02/20/07 04:20 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE!



But seriously, you guys don't think something like Tsar Bomba could deflect this asteroid? We're talking about the capability to shove an asteroid off course with 1% of solar output, seems like that would be enough to me.


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Invisiblejewunit
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Annom]
    #6589548 - 02/20/07 04:20 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

Well, it seems like it would be worth it, because if you don't do it, and you're wrong, then the saved money really serves no purpose. But if you do it, you'll probably never even know if it was worth it or not.

So from an economical standpoint, it seems like the only logical choice.


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OnlineAsanteA
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: NobodyCares]
    #6589618 - 02/20/07 04:42 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

People with nukes tend to think about blowing comets to smittereens, but what you also can do is explode a nuclear bomb beside the asteroid, so that one side of the asteroid gets hot and starts to fume, which through loss of mass leads to a propulsive effect, thus bringing the comet off course with a thermal push, instead of an explosive wallop.

I'm so pro-nuke because a nuclear weapon is a compact package of perhaps 100 lbs which can deliver as much energy as say a million barrels of oil. If NASA and the US Army scientists both set up a taskforce they can in a very short time with existing technology deliver this package millions of miles away, precisely where it should be.

Solar sails and such require untried technology, but the nuke option is very doable.

By the way: many asteroids in fact are solid chunks of "stainless steel" (typically iron/nickel 94:6) moving at velocities of several miles a second. A huge chunk of that steel alloy floating in space is a wonderful resource for the construction of space stations, so we'd want to deflect rather than blow up id we can afford to do so.


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OfflineNewbieS
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Re: 1 in 45000 chance of asteroid stike in 2036 [Re: Asante]
    #6589627 - 02/20/07 04:45 PM (14 years, 2 months ago)

If they hit it too close, wouldn't a few hundred chunks of a huge asteroid be just as bad if not worse than one big one? :lol:


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