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InvisibleAlex213
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655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003
    #6157192 - 10/11/06 06:41 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Perhaps Rumsfield's cunning plan is to thin the towelhead population down to a manageable level by killing them all?

The death toll among Iraqis as a result of the US-led invasion has now reached an estimated 655,000, a study in the Lancet medical journal reports today.

The figure for the number of deaths attributable to the conflict - which amounts to around 2.5% of the population - is at odds with figures cited by the US and UK governments and will cause a storm, but the Lancet says the work, from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, has been examined and validated by four separate independent experts who all urged publication.

In October 2004, the same researchers published a study estimating that 100,000 Iraqis had died as a result of the war since the beginning of the March 2003 invasion, a figure that was hugely controversial. Their new study, they say, reaffirms the accuracy of their survey of two years ago and moves it on.

"Although such death rates might be common in times of war, the combination of a long duration and tens of millions of people affected has made this the deadliest international conflict of the 21st century and should be of grave concern to everyone," write the authors, Gilbert Burnham and colleagues.

"At the conclusion of our 2004 study we urged that an independent body assess the excess mortality that we saw in Iraq. This has not happened. We continue to believe that an independent international body to monitor compliance with the Geneva conventions and other humanitarian standards in conflict is urgently needed. With reliable data, those voices that speak out for civilians trapped in conflict might be able to lessen the tragic human cost of future wars."

The epidemiological research was carried out on the ground by teams of doctors moving from house to house, questioning families and examining death certificates. Between May and July this year, they visited 1,849 households in 47 separated clusters across the length and breadth of Iraq. The doctors asked about deaths among members of the household in a period before the invasion, from January 2002 to March 2003, and about deaths since. In 92% of cases, they were shown death certificates confirming the cause.

A total of 629 deaths were reported, of which 547 - or 87% - occurred after the invasion. The mortality rate before the war was 5.5 per 1,000, but since the invasion, it has risen to 13.3 per 1,000 per year, they say. Between June 2005 and June 2006, the mortality rate hit a high of 19.8 per 1,000.

Thus they calculate that 654,965 Iraqis have died as a consequence of the invasion. It is an estimate and the mid-point of a range of numbers that could equally be correct in the context of their statistical analysis. But even the lowest number in the range - 392,979 - is higher that anyone else has suggested. Of the deaths, 31% were ascribed to the US-led forces. Most deaths were from gunshot wounds (56%), with a further 13% from car bomb injuries and 14% the result of other explosions.

"Since 2004, and especially recently," writes the Lancet editor, Richard Horton in a commentary, "independent observers have recognised that the security situation in Iraq has deteriorated dramatically." The new study, he continues, "corroborate the impression that Iraq is descending into bloodthirsty chaos".

Yet, he writes, "absolute despair would be the wrong response. Instead, the disaster that is the west's current strategy in Iraq must be used as a constructive call to the international community to reconfigure its foreign policy around human security rather than national security, around health and wellbeing in addition to the protection of territorial boundaries and economic stability.

"Health is now the most important foreign policy issue of our time. Health and wellbeing - their underpinning values, their diverse array of interventions and their goals of healing - offer several original dimensions for a renewed foreign policy that might at least be one positive legacy of our misadventure in Iraq."


http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1892888,00.html

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6157329 - 10/11/06 08:33 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

For this to be true, there would have to be 600 deaths per day... every single day... Sorry, I don't buy it.


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InvisiblePenguarky Tunguin
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Seuss]
    #6157501 - 10/11/06 09:51 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
For this to be true, there would have to be 600 deaths per day... every single day... Sorry, I don't buy it.





Dead In Iraq


Long article, but read it, tis quite good.


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Penguarky Tunguin]
    #6157560 - 10/11/06 10:16 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

How many of these deaths are because of inter- tribal/relgious fighting from within? Does the US hold blame for ALL deaths?


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“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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InvisibleWhiskeyClone
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #6157583 - 10/11/06 10:23 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
How many of these deaths are because of inter- tribal/relgious fighting from within? Does the US hold blame for ALL deaths?




Both articles I've read about this study credited the US military for 30% of these deaths.


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Welcome evermore to gods and men is the self-helping man.  For him all doors are flung wide: him all tongues greet, all honors crown, all eyes follow with desire.  Our love goes out to him and embraces him, because he did not need it.

~ R.W. Emerson, "Self-Reliance"

:heartpump:

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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Seuss]
    #6157645 - 10/11/06 10:46 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
For this to be true, there would have to be 600 deaths per day... every single day... Sorry, I don't buy it.




or around 15,000 deaths a month!

This story was all over CNN this morning. (Politics)

FOX news was joking about the article saying the figures were off by as much as 800,000

FOX pointed out that "the plus-minus factor exceeded the derived number -- "


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

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InvisibleAlex213
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: lonestar2004]
    #6157971 - 10/11/06 12:12 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

FOX pointed out that "the plus-minus factor exceeded the derived number -- "


Thus they calculate that 654,965 Iraqis have died as a consequence of the invasion. It is an estimate and the mid-point of a range of numbers that could equally be correct in the context of their statistical analysis. But even the lowest number in the range - 392,979 - is higher that anyone else has suggested. Of the deaths, 31% were ascribed to the US-led forces. Most deaths were from gunshot wounds (56%), with a further 13% from car bomb injuries and 14% the result of other explosions.

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InvisibleAlex213
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Seuss]
    #6157980 - 10/11/06 12:13 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
For this to be true, there would have to be 600 deaths per day... every single day... Sorry, I don't buy it.




Why?

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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Seuss]
    #6158018 - 10/11/06 12:21 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

It wouldn't neccesarily have to be 500 a day, obviously. I bet during the begin of the conflict, many more than 500 were killed per day, especially in the shelling of Baghdad. If this is the case, it would make up for the lower civilian deaths later in the conflict once ground troops were sent in.

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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6158313 - 10/11/06 01:31 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Evidently the same methodology used in this study was used in Kosovo and Africa and has proven to be sound.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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InvisibleBuddha5254
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: zorbman]
    #6158409 - 10/11/06 01:51 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Wow, and when I was arguing people I was using 100,000+. For the sake of argument lets just use the low number. That is a tremendous amount of people, the majority of which would have happened in the initial invasion? I wish there was a month-month estimate to go along with this as well.

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OfflineEconomist
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Redstorm]
    #6158429 - 10/11/06 01:54 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Redstorm said:
It wouldn't neccesarily have to be 500 a day, obviously. I bet during the begin of the conflict, many more than 500 were killed per day, especially in the shelling of Baghdad. If this is the case, it would make up for the lower civilian deaths later in the conflict once ground troops were sent in.



I actually think it might be the other way around. A lot of the killing didn't start up until it became painfully apparent that the extremists weren't going to get their way in government.

So the casualties were probably pretty low, and then once people began to fear the outcome of responsible, secular, elected government, the sectarian violence started up.

That said, I'm having some trouble with the 650,000+ number myself. Basically I have two complaints:

First, they used a bad data set. They compared a 14 month period of time to a 40 month period of time. At the very least they should have compared a 40 month period of time with another 40 month period of time in order to generate a robust study. Personally, I don't know why they did this, and I don't know how big a difference it would make, but I think it's reason to question the results. Perhaps the reasons will come out with additional peer-review, but we need time for that to set in.

Second, there is something seriously wrong with their calculations of pre-war deaths. I don't have specific information to show why this is (my guess would be sampling error, among other things) but it's fairly easy to demonstrate that their pre-war mortality rate is off:

The study itself is available here:
http://www.thelancet.com/webfiles/images/journals/lancet/s0140673606694919.pdf

They report a pre-war mortality rate of 5.5 per 1000. This would place total deaths at around 137,000 a year. The claim is also made on page 3 of the study that approximately 17% of these deaths were children (the number itself isn't reported, but it can be easily generated using the same technique that's used to calculate excess deaths). This would be an annual total of 23,290.

However, we also know from UN reports, among other sources ( http://www.hrw.org/worldreport99/mideast/iraq.html ) that during around 1997-1998 between 4000 and 5000 children were dying per month because of malnutrition alone. Annualized that would be between 18,000 and 30,000 deaths due to malnutrition.

Clearly something doesn't add up, because that would suggest that no child could die from anything except for malnutrition pre-invasion in order for the pre-invasion mortality figures to hold. Obviously this isn't the case, so there must be an error somewhere in the data or the calculations.

I think the Johns Hopkins team has the right idea, and statistical population analysis will eventually yield a far more useful number than tracking media reports or similar methods. However, clearly there are serious problems with their current study. Perhaps additional peer review will clear these problems up, allowing for a more complete study down the road, but at present it's hard to take their numbers at face value.

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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6158797 - 10/11/06 03:15 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Alex213 said:
FOX pointed out that "the plus-minus factor exceeded the derived number -- "


Thus they calculate that 654,965 Iraqis have died as a consequence of the invasion. It is an estimate and the mid-point of a range of numbers that could equally be correct in the context of their statistical analysis. But even the lowest number in the range - 392,979 - is higher that anyone else has suggested. i]






"researchers acknowledged a margin of error that ranged from 426,369 to 793,663 deaths."

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/world/middleeast/11casualties.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Silversoul likes to call me a Simpleton, Maybe I am... I just don't get it.

They admit a margin of error of "426,369 to 793,663" deaths....

How do they come up with this 600,000 thousand number?????


with that margin of error its possible that we brought 145,000 dead Iraqis back to life with this war????


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

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OfflineEconomist
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: lonestar2004]
    #6158821 - 10/11/06 03:20 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Acutally the "margin of error" from 426,369 to 793,663 deaths is the 95% confidence interval the study reports for excessive deaths due to violence.

So, they're 95% confident that excessive deaths due to violence fall somewhere between 426,369 and 793,663. You don't take 793,663 and then add or subtract it from anything. Thus the margin of error in the study doesn't conclude that Iraqis could have been brought back to life, rather the reports on the study are worded poorly.

That's why I don't like to read articles on studies, but read the studies themselves. You can find the study in a link I put in my own post earlier in this thread.

I still think the study's numbers are off (for reasons I explain above) but debate isn't going to get anywhere if the study is mischaracterized.

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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Economist]
    #6158830 - 10/11/06 03:22 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Thanks.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: lonestar2004]
    #6158900 - 10/11/06 03:37 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

There was a previous Lancet study from a year or so ago that was totally discredited on this very forum and elsewhere, quoting up to 100,000 deaths. At the time Iraq Body Count was reporting about one tenth that number. The Juan Cole piece just reports the Lancet lunacy. There's a very good reason why there is a 95% significance factor required in this kind of bullshit study. If you want a reasonably accurate estimate, as opposed to a hysterical lieing nitwit estimate, go to Iraq Body Count. Find it yourselves.


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6159250 - 10/11/06 05:35 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

It's always amusing watching you worship some numbers but deride others.


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers

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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6159373 - 10/11/06 06:20 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:


655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003





Yeah, and 650,000 died from old age.

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6160512 - 10/11/06 11:44 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

> Why?

They called up around 1500 households and asked how many people died and then extrapolated those results. The accuracy depends completely upon the honesty of those asking and answering the questions. They didn't look at morgue records, or death records, but instead asked people for their opinion. How many of the 1500 people they spoke with exagerated a bit, especially if the wording of the poll was misleading. How well did those 1500 people they spoke with represent ALL of Iraq? Finally, extrapolation can be extremly inaccurate, even with good data. With bad data, extrapolation can be useless.... which makes it a very dangerous tool that can be used to "prove" whatever one wants to prove... at least in the eyes of the public. (Given the popularity of the lottery, it is obvious to me that very, very few people understand statistics.)

I could see this type of system working somewhat better after a conflict has ended and people are no longer inclined to lie or exagerate.


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Invisiblequiver
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #6160920 - 10/12/06 03:26 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

lets not forget the editted kiddie swing accidents and the wailing wall palestinian woman with hundreds of dead fathers and sons the arab version of paparazzi follows around


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InvisibleAlex213
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: zappaisgod]
    #6161220 - 10/12/06 07:42 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

There was a previous Lancet study from a year or so ago that was totally discredited on this very forum and elsewhere, quoting up to 100,000 deaths.

Nonsense. It was never discredited.

Two years ago, a study by Dr Les Roberts and a team from Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, estimated that at least 100,000 Iraqis had been killed as a result of the war. This new survey, conducted by the same team and based on similar methodology but using a larger sample, suggests the situation is getting worse rather than better - a conclusion at odds with claims made by President Bush.

Dr Roberts said: "Yes [this finding was a surprise]. I didn't realise that things there were twice as bad as when we carried out our first survey in 2004. I did not know it was that much." Dr Roberts said he expected there would be many who would seek to undermine the report, as happened two years ago. But he said: "Let's have these people tell us what we have done wrong and what the true numbers are. Our study is pretty easy to verify. If they go to a graveyard in a small village and ask how many people are being put in the ground..."


http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/article1842559.ece

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OfflinePhred
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6161242 - 10/12/06 07:55 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Nonsense. It was never discredited.




Yeah it was. It was probably the biggest embarassment to the reputation of The Lancet in its history. Professional statisticians are still laughing over it.

This latest effort is -- almost unbelievably -- even MORE absurd than the first. As Seuss has pointed out, the way to determine how many people have actually died in a given time frame is not to phone less than two thousand people out of a total of population of twenty-six million and ask them to remember how many people they know died in the last three years.

A little bit of grade school arithmetic coupled with a quick check of widely-published annual mortality figures will easily show the number of 655,000 is absurd on the face of it.



Phred


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OfflineJ4S0N
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Phred]
    #6161566 - 10/12/06 10:17 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Arguing over numbers.. 50,000 is to many deaths. That blood is on the hands of everyone that supports the war. I know most of the supporters don't give a shit because they see themselves as being part of an unbeatable force. But their time will come. You can't get that decedent without it destroying you. Remember that the rest of the world now sees you are barbarian fighting over resources. Regardless of what 'noble' cause you conjure up, this is how the world and history will see you. so sad


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OfflineEconomist
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: J4S0N]
    #6161738 - 10/12/06 11:20 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

J4S0N said:
Arguing over numbers.. 50,000 is to many deaths. That blood is on the hands of everyone that supports the war.



See your mistake is completely ignoring how many people Saddam Hussein was killing through his mismanagement of Iraq.

According to many estimates, Saddam Hussein was killing between 10,000 and 50,000 people a year through a combination of starvation and complete lack of sanitation. (source: http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/steven.dav...bruary2006).pdf ) We know he found the money to buy solid-gold AK-47s and build tons of monuments and palaces, but finding the money to feed his people was somehow difficult.

This also doesn't take into account people he killed by other means, such as the reprisals following the first gulf war, or his senseless draining of the marshlands during the early 1990s. All told he killed around 200,000 people between 1991 and 1998. Similarly, if you extrapolate that to the logical end of his regime, it's perfectly reasonable to estimate that Hussein would have another 200,000 to 600,000 Iraqis.

Thus, 50,000 Iraqis is NOT too many, because it would be several magnitudes fewer deaths than Saddam's mismanagement and oppression would have caused anyway.

@Alex213

Look up the original 2004 study, the 95% confidence interval placed the number of deaths somewhere between 8000 deaths and 198000 deaths. That's a preposterous range. This one is a touch better, with the 95% confidence interval coming somewhere between 300,000 and 900,000, but the mere scope of the range is still disheartening in terms of convincing people of the accuracy of the study.

@Seuss

They did take some precautions when counting the deaths, they were able to get death certificates for more than 80% of the deaths they counted, so they didn't just call people on the phone. I would really recommend everyone checks out the study itself instead of relying on articles, it's only 8-pages long so it's not too bad.

As I pointed out above, however, there are some errors, such as the obvious discrepancy in pre-war deaths and the study's findings. They also used a poor dataset, comparing 14 months to 40. I also should point out that they were "unable to collect data" from one of the most peaceful provinces in the south-east, which could easily throw off their data.

I do agree with what Seuss said, this is a method that should be tried again, but when things calm down.

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Economist]
    #6161748 - 10/12/06 11:24 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

> I would really recommend everyone checks out the study itself instead of relying on articles, it's only 8-pages long so it's not too bad.

Good point. I was going off of what is repeated by the media rather than going to the source.


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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Seuss]
    #6166535 - 10/13/06 04:45 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

The bottom line here is this.......The US government is never going to admit they have lead a war that has killed 100,000 + civilians in Iraq...............But we all know they did.

How many is not the point the point is this war has been going on long enough that far to many people are dead from Bombs out of the night sky.


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It is as it is, so suffer thru it.

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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Economist]
    #6166608 - 10/13/06 05:06 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

It doesnt matter how many Saddam killed through mismanagement, The simple fact is Saddam had order, something that is severely lacking in the new coalition, people dont care how authoritarian their government is as long as the trains run on time and bombs dont go off in crowds every day.

Im surprised Saddam managed to keep his countries shit together so well aferting years of daily airstrike sorties, sanctions. The UN was probably the only reason he subsisted so well.

The situation in Iraq will become more and more unglued and the thousands of fighters who fought,trained and learned from Iraq will now set their sights as the jihad movement moves into high gear on other ME puppet governments that lack credibility with their own people will be first to fall.

As Condie Rice said herself "This is the birthpangs of a new middle east" Maybe not the subservient flower throwing type.

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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
    #6168086 - 10/14/06 03:49 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Yes, orderly killings are much better.


--------------------
You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers

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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: luvdemshrooms]
    #6168296 - 10/14/06 08:50 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

The Nazis had even more order than Saddam Hussein. I guess we should set up a Nazi government in Germany again.

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OfflineBasilides
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Luddite]
    #6168319 - 10/14/06 09:08 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

That doesn't make sense because Germany already has order and rule of law.


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OfflineDelta9Hippie
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Basilides]
    #6168563 - 10/14/06 10:42 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Well, won't the history books be interesting, because as long as the powers that be of the US continue to be, this war will seem like it was an amazing 'arms-stretched-out' effort by the compassionate Bush to help liberate a people from what could have been the next Hitler.

What is going on in this world? Are we seriously arguing over a number of deaths of individual people? We need to step back from this aspect that we are all getting riled up about and see what's really going on. Why? Bush is not doing this to make us safer, granted I'm sure that in the next 25 years if Hussein had gone the scariest possible route, we would have some issues to deal with if we hadn't stayed on top, but that is not the reason for this war, it isn't a war on terror. There's terror in Colombia, a country that wants peace, but cant, and asks for help. But Colombia is not the point either. It is this...

We are there so that you dont have to pay more money at the pump, and so some filthy rich texans can get filthier. To keep the "american standard of life" in america. To fuck all other countries raw if that will in any way keep the US where it is. Is it right? That is up to you. That is the real question, do you value yourself and your glamorous life more than just some random dark skinned arab boy?

There are some that wish to find a balance with this, to not harm innocents, but to progress our country and others into an equaler world community, the problem is that the clear thinkers on this topic are few in government.


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InvisibleAlex213
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Phred]
    #6168606 - 10/14/06 10:59 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Phred said:
Quote:

Nonsense. It was never discredited.




Yeah it was. It was probably the biggest embarassment to the reputation of The Lancet in its history. Professional statisticians are still laughing over it.


Phred




No it wasn't. In fact the same methodology is used in Darfur and I havn't heard anyone piss and moan about the results.

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OfflineEconomist
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6168621 - 10/14/06 11:05 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Alex213 said:
No it wasn't. In fact the same methodology is used in Darfur and I havn't heard anyone piss and moan about the results.



That's because the methodology wasn't discredited. The individual case of the 2004 Lancet study, however, was.

As I've already posted, the 2004 study had problems with an ultra-large variance, as was evidenced by a 95% confidence interval of 8,000 to 198,000 deaths. While the interval is numerically smaller than the one in the 2006 study, as a percentage it's horrendous. The difference between 8,000 and 198,000 is over 2000%, compared to a difference of just 200% in the 2006 study.

They're getting better, but they're still not there yet.

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InvisibleAlex213
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Economist]
    #6177357 - 10/17/06 02:31 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

The 2006 study says people are dying at an even greater rate than the 2004 study suggested.

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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6177653 - 10/17/06 07:33 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

And the 2006 "study" is an even bigger load of bollocks than the 2004 one, and that took some doing.

Even the anti-war organization Iraq Body Count -- whose own fatality figures are greatly inflated -- had no difficulty pointing out the absurdities of the conclusions in this latest bucket of bilge.

The publication of the first (2004) article by The Lancet was an embarassment to the magazine. But it pales in comparison to the embarassment this latest dreck will cause. When simple grade school arithmetic applied to open source reporting shows quite clearly the utter impossibility of this number being anywhere close to accurate (by at least an order of magnitude), it becomes VERY hard to attribute this blunder to simple incompetence and almost mandatory to attribute it to political motives. This is even more apparent when one observes that yet again the release of the report is within a month of an American election.

One can excuse the average news listener for not running a few simple calculations upon being presented with such a ludicrous figure. One cannot excuse the editors of a supposedly serious scientific journal for the same lapse.



Phred


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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6180456 - 10/17/06 08:56 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Alex213 said:
The 2006 study says people are dying at an even greater rate than the 2004 study suggested.



And I've pointed out that there are significant problems with the 2006 study as well. While the Confidence Interval was a bit better, there were other problems which cast a very serious doubt on the 2006 findings.

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Economist]
    #6181343 - 10/18/06 05:25 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

In one of the lower level statistics classes that I took, we had to do a project where we polled people and analyzed the results using statistical methods. Once we were ready to hand in the work, the professor tossed out a surprise. Rather than being finished with the project, we were just getting started. He had all of the teams swap projects. Our new task was to rework the poll that another team had already done in such a way that we could drastically alter the results while maintaining validity of the methods used.

The poll my team was given related to the type of music that people liked. We redid the poll, but we were very selective in where we went to poll people. In our case, we polled people as they were leaving church services. The sample population looked random, but was not. We included professions and residence locations in the conclusion (to help show that the data was random/not biased), but left out the bit about the church. Who cares about ethics? Obviously, metal music didn't perform as well on the second poll, while gospel and pop got a large boost. If we had extrapolated for the entire state, then our lies would have been amplified even though the confidence interval would remain narrow.

I'm not saying that the polls in Iraq were done with the intention of generating large numbers, but it wouldn't surprise me. Even knowing the methodolgy used in a poll, one cannot be certain that the authors are being honest and ethical.


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InvisibleAlex213
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Phred]
    #6181659 - 10/18/06 09:02 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Phred said:
And the 2006 "study" is an even bigger load of bollocks than the 2004 one, and that took some doing.

Even the anti-war organization Iraq Body Count -- whose own fatality figures are greatly inflated -- had no difficulty pointing out the absurdities of the conclusions in this latest bucket of bilge.

The publication of the first (2004) article by The Lancet was an embarassment to the magazine. But it pales in comparison to the embarassment this latest dreck will cause. When simple grade school arithmetic applied to open source reporting shows quite clearly the utter impossibility of this number being anywhere close to accurate (by at least an order of magnitude), it becomes VERY hard to attribute this blunder to simple incompetence and almost mandatory to attribute it to political motives. This is even more apparent when one observes that yet again the release of the report is within a month of an American election.

One can excuse the average news listener for not running a few simple calculations upon being presented with such a ludicrous figure. One cannot excuse the editors of a supposedly serious scientific journal for the same lapse.

Phred




Come off it. The people running the Lancet arn't stupid. Neither are the people doing the study.

Incidentally the Iraq Body Count only reports deaths mentioned by (mostly western) media news sources. Obviously that's going to nowhere near the true number of deaths. How many deaths do you think the media reports on? One in a thousand? Less?

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InvisibleAlex213
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Seuss]
    #6181678 - 10/18/06 09:09 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

"I loved when President Bush said 'their methodology has been pretty well discredited,' " says Richard Garfield, a public health professor at Columbia University who works closely with a number of the authors of the report. "That's exactly wrong. There is no discrediting of this methodology. I don't think there's anyone who's been involved in mortality research who thinks there's a better way to do it in unsecured areas. I have never heard of any argument in this field that says there's a better way to do it."

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1013/p01s04-woiq.html

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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6181767 - 10/18/06 09:38 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

But again, you don't need to discredit the methodology in order to discredit the study.

Demographic analysis is solid, the Lancet studies aren't. The claims being made here are not congruent with the claims being made by President Bush.

I've yet to see anything that excuses them for comparing uneven data sets (14 months vs. 40), having no data from the Al-Muthanna province (which is one of the most peaceful), or the gross discrepancies between their estimated pre-war mortality rates, and what we know to be the actual pre-war mortality rates (see my earlier post in this thread).

It doesn't matter what methodology you use, if you use it poorly, and collect ineffective data, then you're going to get a bad answer. Garbage-in garbage-out doesn't have anything to do with methodology, and everthing to do with data collection.

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OfflineDivided_Sky
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Economist]
    #6183416 - 10/18/06 05:36 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

I don't really buy it. The same sampling method was almost 10 times too high the first time they did it in Iraq, and I would assume the same holds true now.

Also, this doesn't really say WHO were killed and by whom. It's implications are unclear.


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OfflineBasilides
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Divided_Sky]
    #6184855 - 10/19/06 01:11 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

I think it's fairly obvious most of the deaths come from sectarian violence.


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