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InvisibleAlex213
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Registered: 08/22/05
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655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003
    #6157192 - 10/11/06 06:41 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Perhaps Rumsfield's cunning plan is to thin the towelhead population down to a manageable level by killing them all?

The death toll among Iraqis as a result of the US-led invasion has now reached an estimated 655,000, a study in the Lancet medical journal reports today.

The figure for the number of deaths attributable to the conflict - which amounts to around 2.5% of the population - is at odds with figures cited by the US and UK governments and will cause a storm, but the Lancet says the work, from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, has been examined and validated by four separate independent experts who all urged publication.

In October 2004, the same researchers published a study estimating that 100,000 Iraqis had died as a result of the war since the beginning of the March 2003 invasion, a figure that was hugely controversial. Their new study, they say, reaffirms the accuracy of their survey of two years ago and moves it on.

"Although such death rates might be common in times of war, the combination of a long duration and tens of millions of people affected has made this the deadliest international conflict of the 21st century and should be of grave concern to everyone," write the authors, Gilbert Burnham and colleagues.

"At the conclusion of our 2004 study we urged that an independent body assess the excess mortality that we saw in Iraq. This has not happened. We continue to believe that an independent international body to monitor compliance with the Geneva conventions and other humanitarian standards in conflict is urgently needed. With reliable data, those voices that speak out for civilians trapped in conflict might be able to lessen the tragic human cost of future wars."

The epidemiological research was carried out on the ground by teams of doctors moving from house to house, questioning families and examining death certificates. Between May and July this year, they visited 1,849 households in 47 separated clusters across the length and breadth of Iraq. The doctors asked about deaths among members of the household in a period before the invasion, from January 2002 to March 2003, and about deaths since. In 92% of cases, they were shown death certificates confirming the cause.

A total of 629 deaths were reported, of which 547 - or 87% - occurred after the invasion. The mortality rate before the war was 5.5 per 1,000, but since the invasion, it has risen to 13.3 per 1,000 per year, they say. Between June 2005 and June 2006, the mortality rate hit a high of 19.8 per 1,000.

Thus they calculate that 654,965 Iraqis have died as a consequence of the invasion. It is an estimate and the mid-point of a range of numbers that could equally be correct in the context of their statistical analysis. But even the lowest number in the range - 392,979 - is higher that anyone else has suggested. Of the deaths, 31% were ascribed to the US-led forces. Most deaths were from gunshot wounds (56%), with a further 13% from car bomb injuries and 14% the result of other explosions.

"Since 2004, and especially recently," writes the Lancet editor, Richard Horton in a commentary, "independent observers have recognised that the security situation in Iraq has deteriorated dramatically." The new study, he continues, "corroborate the impression that Iraq is descending into bloodthirsty chaos".

Yet, he writes, "absolute despair would be the wrong response. Instead, the disaster that is the west's current strategy in Iraq must be used as a constructive call to the international community to reconfigure its foreign policy around human security rather than national security, around health and wellbeing in addition to the protection of territorial boundaries and economic stability.

"Health is now the most important foreign policy issue of our time. Health and wellbeing - their underpinning values, their diverse array of interventions and their goals of healing - offer several original dimensions for a renewed foreign policy that might at least be one positive legacy of our misadventure in Iraq."


http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1892888,00.html

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6157329 - 10/11/06 08:33 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

For this to be true, there would have to be 600 deaths per day... every single day... Sorry, I don't buy it.


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InvisiblePenguarky Tunguin
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Seuss]
    #6157501 - 10/11/06 09:51 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
For this to be true, there would have to be 600 deaths per day... every single day... Sorry, I don't buy it.





Dead In Iraq


Long article, but read it, tis quite good.


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Every mistake, intentional or otherwise, in the above post, is the fault of the reader.

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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Penguarky Tunguin]
    #6157560 - 10/11/06 10:16 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

How many of these deaths are because of inter- tribal/relgious fighting from within? Does the US hold blame for ALL deaths?


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“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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InvisibleWhiskeyClone
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #6157583 - 10/11/06 10:23 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
How many of these deaths are because of inter- tribal/relgious fighting from within? Does the US hold blame for ALL deaths?




Both articles I've read about this study credited the US military for 30% of these deaths.


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Welcome evermore to gods and men is the self-helping man.  For him all doors are flung wide: him all tongues greet, all honors crown, all eyes follow with desire.  Our love goes out to him and embraces him, because he did not need it.

~ R.W. Emerson, "Self-Reliance"

:heartpump:

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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Seuss]
    #6157645 - 10/11/06 10:46 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
For this to be true, there would have to be 600 deaths per day... every single day... Sorry, I don't buy it.




or around 15,000 deaths a month!

This story was all over CNN this morning. (Politics)

FOX news was joking about the article saying the figures were off by as much as 800,000

FOX pointed out that "the plus-minus factor exceeded the derived number -- "


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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InvisibleAlex213
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Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: lonestar2004]
    #6157971 - 10/11/06 12:12 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

FOX pointed out that "the plus-minus factor exceeded the derived number -- "


Thus they calculate that 654,965 Iraqis have died as a consequence of the invasion. It is an estimate and the mid-point of a range of numbers that could equally be correct in the context of their statistical analysis. But even the lowest number in the range - 392,979 - is higher that anyone else has suggested. Of the deaths, 31% were ascribed to the US-led forces. Most deaths were from gunshot wounds (56%), with a further 13% from car bomb injuries and 14% the result of other explosions.

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InvisibleAlex213
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Seuss]
    #6157980 - 10/11/06 12:13 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
For this to be true, there would have to be 600 deaths per day... every single day... Sorry, I don't buy it.




Why?

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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Seuss]
    #6158018 - 10/11/06 12:21 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

It wouldn't neccesarily have to be 500 a day, obviously. I bet during the begin of the conflict, many more than 500 were killed per day, especially in the shelling of Baghdad. If this is the case, it would make up for the lower civilian deaths later in the conflict once ground troops were sent in.

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Invisiblezorbman
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6158313 - 10/11/06 01:31 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Evidently the same methodology used in this study was used in Kosovo and Africa and has proven to be sound.


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“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

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InvisibleBuddha5254
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: zorbman]
    #6158409 - 10/11/06 01:51 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Wow, and when I was arguing people I was using 100,000+. For the sake of argument lets just use the low number. That is a tremendous amount of people, the majority of which would have happened in the initial invasion? I wish there was a month-month estimate to go along with this as well.

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OfflineEconomist
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Redstorm]
    #6158429 - 10/11/06 01:54 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Redstorm said:
It wouldn't neccesarily have to be 500 a day, obviously. I bet during the begin of the conflict, many more than 500 were killed per day, especially in the shelling of Baghdad. If this is the case, it would make up for the lower civilian deaths later in the conflict once ground troops were sent in.



I actually think it might be the other way around. A lot of the killing didn't start up until it became painfully apparent that the extremists weren't going to get their way in government.

So the casualties were probably pretty low, and then once people began to fear the outcome of responsible, secular, elected government, the sectarian violence started up.

That said, I'm having some trouble with the 650,000+ number myself. Basically I have two complaints:

First, they used a bad data set. They compared a 14 month period of time to a 40 month period of time. At the very least they should have compared a 40 month period of time with another 40 month period of time in order to generate a robust study. Personally, I don't know why they did this, and I don't know how big a difference it would make, but I think it's reason to question the results. Perhaps the reasons will come out with additional peer-review, but we need time for that to set in.

Second, there is something seriously wrong with their calculations of pre-war deaths. I don't have specific information to show why this is (my guess would be sampling error, among other things) but it's fairly easy to demonstrate that their pre-war mortality rate is off:

The study itself is available here:
http://www.thelancet.com/webfiles/images/journals/lancet/s0140673606694919.pdf

They report a pre-war mortality rate of 5.5 per 1000. This would place total deaths at around 137,000 a year. The claim is also made on page 3 of the study that approximately 17% of these deaths were children (the number itself isn't reported, but it can be easily generated using the same technique that's used to calculate excess deaths). This would be an annual total of 23,290.

However, we also know from UN reports, among other sources ( http://www.hrw.org/worldreport99/mideast/iraq.html ) that during around 1997-1998 between 4000 and 5000 children were dying per month because of malnutrition alone. Annualized that would be between 18,000 and 30,000 deaths due to malnutrition.

Clearly something doesn't add up, because that would suggest that no child could die from anything except for malnutrition pre-invasion in order for the pre-invasion mortality figures to hold. Obviously this isn't the case, so there must be an error somewhere in the data or the calculations.

I think the Johns Hopkins team has the right idea, and statistical population analysis will eventually yield a far more useful number than tracking media reports or similar methods. However, clearly there are serious problems with their current study. Perhaps additional peer review will clear these problems up, allowing for a more complete study down the road, but at present it's hard to take their numbers at face value.

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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6158797 - 10/11/06 03:15 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Alex213 said:
FOX pointed out that "the plus-minus factor exceeded the derived number -- "


Thus they calculate that 654,965 Iraqis have died as a consequence of the invasion. It is an estimate and the mid-point of a range of numbers that could equally be correct in the context of their statistical analysis. But even the lowest number in the range - 392,979 - is higher that anyone else has suggested. i]






"researchers acknowledged a margin of error that ranged from 426,369 to 793,663 deaths."

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/world/middleeast/11casualties.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Silversoul likes to call me a Simpleton, Maybe I am... I just don't get it.

They admit a margin of error of "426,369 to 793,663" deaths....

How do they come up with this 600,000 thousand number?????


with that margin of error its possible that we brought 145,000 dead Iraqis back to life with this war????


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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OfflineEconomist
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: lonestar2004]
    #6158821 - 10/11/06 03:20 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Acutally the "margin of error" from 426,369 to 793,663 deaths is the 95% confidence interval the study reports for excessive deaths due to violence.

So, they're 95% confident that excessive deaths due to violence fall somewhere between 426,369 and 793,663. You don't take 793,663 and then add or subtract it from anything. Thus the margin of error in the study doesn't conclude that Iraqis could have been brought back to life, rather the reports on the study are worded poorly.

That's why I don't like to read articles on studies, but read the studies themselves. You can find the study in a link I put in my own post earlier in this thread.

I still think the study's numbers are off (for reasons I explain above) but debate isn't going to get anywhere if the study is mischaracterized.

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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Economist]
    #6158830 - 10/11/06 03:22 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Thanks.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: lonestar2004]
    #6158900 - 10/11/06 03:37 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

There was a previous Lancet study from a year or so ago that was totally discredited on this very forum and elsewhere, quoting up to 100,000 deaths. At the time Iraq Body Count was reporting about one tenth that number. The Juan Cole piece just reports the Lancet lunacy. There's a very good reason why there is a 95% significance factor required in this kind of bullshit study. If you want a reasonably accurate estimate, as opposed to a hysterical lieing nitwit estimate, go to Iraq Body Count. Find it yourselves.


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6159250 - 10/11/06 05:35 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

It's always amusing watching you worship some numbers but deride others.


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers

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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6159373 - 10/11/06 06:20 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:


655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003





Yeah, and 650,000 died from old age.

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: Alex213]
    #6160512 - 10/11/06 11:44 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

> Why?

They called up around 1500 households and asked how many people died and then extrapolated those results. The accuracy depends completely upon the honesty of those asking and answering the questions. They didn't look at morgue records, or death records, but instead asked people for their opinion. How many of the 1500 people they spoke with exagerated a bit, especially if the wording of the poll was misleading. How well did those 1500 people they spoke with represent ALL of Iraq? Finally, extrapolation can be extremly inaccurate, even with good data. With bad data, extrapolation can be useless.... which makes it a very dangerous tool that can be used to "prove" whatever one wants to prove... at least in the eyes of the public. (Given the popularity of the lottery, it is obvious to me that very, very few people understand statistics.)

I could see this type of system working somewhat better after a conflict has ended and people are no longer inclined to lie or exagerate.


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Invisiblequiver
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Re: 655,000 Iraqis killed since 2003 [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #6160920 - 10/12/06 03:26 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

lets not forget the editted kiddie swing accidents and the wailing wall palestinian woman with hundreds of dead fathers and sons the arab version of paparazzi follows around


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