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InvisibleAsante
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North Korea conspiracy
    #6149671 - 10/09/06 10:55 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

OK, here's the deal: North Korea allegedly conducted an underground nuclear test earlier today, and proudly announced no radiation was released.

But did they? I mean, really?

A decent-sized plant could output several kilotons of blasting explosives made from just water, air and electricity and a fuel, these can be poured into a 50x50x50ft underground cavity and detonated, creating a seismic shock indistinguishable from a nuclear blast, and that "no radiation has been released" might be part of a clever coverup that there in fact IS no radiation - it was a chemical explosion. The amount and type of blasting explosives needed is by no means extraordinary compared to the amounts used by a nation for quarry mining etc, it only is unusual to explode that much in one shot, so the engineering challenge is slight.

This test, if passed off well, would put North Korea on the map of nuclear powers, even when they in fact might not have been ready.

Then there is another option, which is that a nuclear power such as Russia has sold them a nuclear warhead for the purpose of simulating achievement of nuclear capability, and becoming another nation defying the USA.

What really did happen some 15 hours ago?


:crazy:
What really DID happen in North Korea?
You may choose only one


Votes accepted from (10/09/06 10:55 AM) to (No end specified)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll



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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6149676 - 10/09/06 10:58 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

They have nuclear capabilities, but I doubt it really matters much.

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Redstorm]
    #6149697 - 10/09/06 11:09 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

> What really did happen some 15 hours ago?

North Korea became the first government to fail detontaing a nuclear weapon on their first try. It was real. It was a dud.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Seuss]
    #6149790 - 10/09/06 11:51 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Is there a yield estimate?


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Offlinebarfightlard
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6149792 - 10/09/06 11:52 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

I read 5k to 15k, let me look for the source.

Sorry I can't find it.


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"What business is it of yours what I do, read, buy, see, say, think, who I fuck, what I take into my body - as long as I do not harm another human being on this planet?" - Bill Hicks

Edited by barfightlard (10/09/06 11:57 AM)

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InvisibleAsante
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: barfightlard]
    #6149810 - 10/09/06 12:01 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

5-15 kT would be excellent for a first test but

Quote:

On 9 October 2006 North Korea conducted its first ever nuclear test successfully, the test was conducted underground and was termed successful. The bomb contained the equivalent of 550 tons of TNT, causing a tremor measuring 3.6 on the Richter Scale.




0.55 kT either is a particularly loud dud, or a succesful test of a miniature nuclear weapon. Still, its radius of destruction is 0.4x that of the bomb that struck Hiroshima, which would demolish a place like Manhattan.

For all we know it was an attempt at a suitcase nuke design



because 550 tons of TNT still is 50x heavier than a MOAB.


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Offlinebarfightlard
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6149822 - 10/09/06 12:05 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Well if they supply isn't that great, I doubt they would waste a large amount for a test anyways.


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"What business is it of yours what I do, read, buy, see, say, think, who I fuck, what I take into my body - as long as I do not harm another human being on this planet?" - Bill Hicks

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6149867 - 10/09/06 12:19 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

> Is there a yield estimate?

More than 500 tons, less than 1kt.

> For all we know it was an attempt at a suitcase nuke design

Highly unlikely. We will know soon enough. It is very unlikely that any nation would attempt a miniature design their first time out. It is much more difficult to make a small nuke than it is to make a large one. They need the data from a detonation in order to calculate the bounds allowable in miniaturization. (Which, I suspect, is why the US has been so friendly towards India's nuclear program... somebody has modern data that somebody else wants)


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Seuss]
    #6150819 - 10/09/06 04:41 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

There's the two lenses system (rugby ball shaped plutonium pit) which is more straightforward than the classic design and also happens to be small in size. They did have many existing designs to spy and extrapolate on.

Nontheless they now have a design capable of 0.5-1 kT which in itself is quite useful, either by itself or as part of a fusion-boosted design.

Even a respectable suitcase nuke should at least pass the 1 kT mark, I agree.


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Invisiblequiver
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6152870 - 10/10/06 01:22 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

after reading that i wouldnt be surprised if its true

i seen that the blast was only the size of the atomic bomb at hiroshima so its pretty lame
the thing thats a worry is those pieces of shit would make thousands of them and ship them around the world to all our enemies just like they do with heroin

what they need is a good dose of chemicals or maybe an accidental bomb that they accidently fucked up if you know what i mean and wiped them selves out,who would know?


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6153065 - 10/10/06 04:11 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

> Nontheless they now have a design capable of 0.5-1 kT which in itself is quite useful

Quiet useful? I guess, if they can get a delivery truck to haul it around... It is highly unlikely that anything they tested was weaponized. If they are serious about building weapons, then there will be another test soon. If they are throwing a temper tantrum for attention, then they won't bother with another test.

I wonder how dirty the test site is? I wonder if they closed the old coal mine down because they reached water, a common occourance. I wonder how pissed China is to get a new EPA superfund site just seventy miles from their border.

Finally, assuming I am correct and it was a dud, I wonder what went wrong. I have three guesses: they tried to assemble subcritical sections, gun style, and it blew apart before assembly (as expected); they failed to achieve a symteric implosion (unlikely from theory, possible hardware failure); they failed to initiate the chain reaction (most likely).


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6153918 - 10/10/06 11:44 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

i wouldnt put it past karl rove to sell an earthquake as a "nucular" explosion...reports from other countries on faux news are hardly gospel...but the big problem with that scenario is whether anyone could have predicted a minor earthquake in N korea to use an advance warning for the test...

even if it was an actual nuke..it was at the most a very mini-sized one..which seems to show that the fuel wasnt pure enough and/or the implosive was faulty...its like their missiles that might get off the ground but dont come close to making it...

either way..the explosion doesnt seem to have blown mark foley off the headlines...


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Offlinespeeddealer
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Annapurna1]
    #6153947 - 10/10/06 12:00 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Annapurna1 said:
i wouldnt put it past karl rove to sell an earthquake as a "nucular" explosion...reports from other countries on faux news are hardly gospel...but the big problem with that scenario is whether anyone could have predicted a minor earthquake in N korea to use an advance warning for the test...





ummm....are you serious or just really, REALLY paranoid? Bet you know who bombed the WTC too, dontcha?

The 'world' says that a stark raving tyrant has detonated a nuclear weapon and you try to blame republicans? haha....that's rich. What color is the sky in your world?

I leave you with a quote from Trey and Matt regarding Nortk Korea and America, it sums this whole thing up in a nutshell:

"We're dicks! We're reckless, arrogant, stupid dicks. And the Film Actors Guild are pussies. And Kim Jong Il is an asshole. Pussies don't like dicks, because pussies get fucked by dicks. But dicks also fuck assholes: assholes that just want to shit on everything. Pussies may think they can deal with assholes their way. But the only thing that can fuck an asshole is a dick, with some balls. The problem with dicks is: they fuck too much or fuck when it isn't appropriate - and it takes a pussy to show them that. But sometimes, pussies can be so full of shit that they become assholes themselves... because pussies are an inch and half away from ass holes. I don't know much about this crazy, crazy world, but I do know this: If you don't let us fuck this asshole, we're going to have our dicks and pussies all covered in shit! "

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: speeddealer]
    #6153982 - 10/10/06 12:17 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

> i wouldnt put it past karl rove to sell an earthquake as a "nucular" explosion...

We can tell the difference between an earthquake and explosives on a seismograph. We can also locate the exact center and depth of the blast using several seismographs. Given samples of the blast fallout quickly enough, we can completely reverse engineer the design of the device they used.

> Bet you know who bombed the WTC too, dontcha?

Debate the topic, not the poster, please. (i.e. no flames)


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InvisibleFucknuckle
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Seuss]
    #6154384 - 10/10/06 01:58 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

It was real:rolleyes:

They have a Nuclear power plant running since the mid 1970's

They have been working on a bomb for 35 years. They would of had it far sooner of not being broke. It takes billions of dollars to make Nukes


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Fucknuckle]
    #6154809 - 10/10/06 03:44 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

You have a source for your assertions that it costs billions of dollars to make a nuke?

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InvisibleAsante
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Redstorm]
    #6155082 - 10/10/06 04:57 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

I recall that an US nuclear bomb costs 10-15 million dollars, but it needs be said that the US has an industry churning these things out by the dozen. You need to start from scratch if you build your own, which is much more expensive. To kickstart a nuke industry a few billion dollars would be reasonable.

The nuke that fizzled is specially designed for the rocket that failed so they won't suffer too much caualties when they decide to launch it  :rolleyes:


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OfflineThe_Red_Crayon
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Seuss]
    #6155102 - 10/10/06 05:01 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

NK is more then likely trying to tune up their Taepodong missile series, Its no coincidence they tested these types of intermediate,short range and long range ballisitic missiles a few months ago.

This technology will more then likely be traded around with Iran and others, just as Iran as eagerly bought up NK Nodong 1 and 2's and refined their own versions into their Shahab series of ICBMs.

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Offlinetelltale13
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
    #6155318 - 10/10/06 06:02 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

UFO!

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OfflineEconomist
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6155373 - 10/10/06 06:16 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

I just wanted to bring up 2 points that didn't seem to be mentioned in this thread yet:

First, the reason the bomb might have been very small is that North Korea has a very limited amount of nuclear fuel, and cannot efficiently or quickly produce very much more. Thus, if they are assembling weapons, they might purposefully put together a very small one for a test so as not to waste a lot of their precious fuel on a mere test run.

Second, according to CNN (I know some of you guys don't believe them so much, but I haven't found it reported elsewhere yet) Chinese officials were warned of the test just prior to when it took place. The North Koreans told them they were going to test a 4 kiloton warhead. (source: http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/10/10/korea.nuclear.test/index.html )

However, as we've all read, the resulting explosion may have been less than 1 kiloton.

This discrepancy could be due to several reasons. The device could have been designed poorly, and some of the fuel dissipated or burned off without joining the chain reaction.

Or it could have failed outright, and the North Koreans, too embarrassed after what happened to their missile earlier this year, blew up a bunch of conventional explosives to cover up the failure.

At this point I don't think there's anyway to tell what exactly happened. Personally, I wouldn't put it past the North Koreans to try and cover-up a failed nuke with a bunch of conventional explosives, they made a half-hearted attempt to cover up their previous failure by purposefully launching a bunch of stuff into the sea later in the day after their taepodong-II failed. At the same time, the Russians and the Chinese seem VERY convinced that the test was real, with the Chinese outright demanding sanctions, something we've never seen them do before.

It's hard to tell at this point, I think all we can do is wait.

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InvisibleFucknuckle
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Economist]
    #6155473 - 10/10/06 06:38 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

And wait we will and just like ALL nuke programs they started blowing up small bombs and them bigger bombs and bigger..........Give em a few weeks and they will blow a bigger bomb and may even blow a bomb high in the atmosphere..........Oh yes the fireworks


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Fucknuckle]
    #6155481 - 10/10/06 06:40 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Are you willing to make a bet on this?

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InvisibleFucknuckle
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Redstorm]
    #6155514 - 10/10/06 06:48 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

LMAO are you serious

To what point anyway ? You think the entire idea of humanity avoiding a full blown world war involving nukes is the only outcome.

I think the only outcome of humanity, as we know it, is a slave to world war mixed with Nuke winter.

A bet ? What the fuck are you talking about......if your right you can never get paid off. How can you be proven right ? we would have to wait FOREVER.............

If I am right how can I collect ? There will be no way..........

So stop acting so emotional and childish. This is a place to talk debate etc..............not cry.


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What it is, is what it is my Brother.
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OfflineSeussA
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Redstorm]
    #6155597 - 10/10/06 07:03 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

First, the reason the bomb might have been very small is that North Korea has a very limited amount of nuclear fuel, and cannot efficiently or quickly produce very much more.




This is actually one of the reasons they would not start small. Decent energies must be liberated in order to generate the data needed to progress forward with a design. The risk of loosing fuel on a fizzle and the resulting lose of data is not worth saving a kilo of fuel. These types of weapons do not easily scale down. It is much, much more difficult to build a nuke with a small yield than it is to build a big one.

Quote:

The device could have been designed poorly, and some of the fuel dissipated or burned off without joining the chain reaction.




My guess is that they were in a hurry to breed fuel and ran the reactor hot without realizing the severity of the consequences.

Quote:

Or it could have failed outright, and the North Koreans, too embarrassed after what happened to their missile earlier this year, blew up a bunch of conventional explosives to cover up the failure.




Without getting too specific, it is fairly easy for the US government to tell the difference between a large conventional explosion and a nuclear explosion. It will take a bit of time to know for certain, 100%, but they can get real, real close to certain from the seismic activity recorded.

Quote:

At this point I don't think there's anyway to tell what exactly happened.




Pollution will tell the tale if it was a nuke or not. However, I would be surprised to find out that it was conventional and not nuclear in nature. Geologists around the world would have detected anything short of a complete dud... and with a complete dud there would have been no reason to cover anything up.

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OfflineEconomist
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Seuss]
    #6155787 - 10/10/06 07:43 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
Without getting too specific, it is fairly easy for the US government to tell the difference between a large conventional explosion and a nuclear explosion. It will take a bit of time to know for certain, 100%, but they can get real, real close to certain from the seismic activity recorded.



The CNN story quoted the US official as saying something in the test "went wrong", so it makes me curious what details the US officials know.

It would be hard for them (politically) to come out and say it wasn't a nuclear explosion right now when China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea are all saying it was.

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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Fucknuckle]
    #6155942 - 10/10/06 08:18 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

You're not even debating. You're spewing garbage with no evidence of any sort. It sounds like some nutty Christian apocalyptica.

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OfflineCatalysis
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Economist]
    #6155963 - 10/10/06 08:25 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

The CNN story quoted the US official as saying something in the test "went wrong", so it makes me curious what details the US officials know.




Spy satellite monitoring of the area may be able to eliminate the possibility that it was pulled off with conventional explosives. Given this and the fact that seismic data can clearly distinguish a nuclear event, I think US officials are now pretty certain it was an attempted and failed nuclear test. Interestingly, Russia seems quite convinced that it was successful.

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Economist]
    #6157090 - 10/11/06 04:39 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

The CNN story quoted the US official as saying something in the test "went wrong", so it makes me curious what details the US officials know.




Keep in mind that the US spent 40-some-odd-years locked in the cold war where they spent billions upon billions of dollars in both R&D and practical applications to detect what the USSR and China were doing with their nuclear programs. The US capability here is next to none and borders on the edge of science fiction.

Quote:

Interestingly, Russia seems quite convinced that it was successful.




I think this is political. As I said in an earlier post, NK is either serious about making nuclear weapons, or was throwing a temper tantrum to get attention. Assuming the later, it is much better for nations to back off from the "it failed, hahaha" mentality to help diffuse the situation. By keeping the failure low key, or claiming the failure was a success, NK doesn't have to run another test to save face with the world. However, if NK is serious about building nukes, they will have to run a test near the 15kt range to get the data needed to continue their program.

If they fizzle a second time, then I would be almost certain that they bred 240 by mistake. If this is the case, then NK is sitting on a lot of plutonium that is worthless for making nukes but would be perfect for use in dirty bombs. I am much more worried about NK selling off bad plutonium (non-weapons grade) to the highest bidder than I am about NK building nukes.


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Offlinespeeddealer
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Seuss]
    #6157659 - 10/11/06 10:51 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Kim Jong Il announced Karl Rove's planned 'earthquake' a day or two ahead of time. I am not bashing the person who posted, just the notion of speaking lies without reading the news. Shit man, Al Jazeera carried the news too! The test was announced ahead of time....FACT.

How in the world are dissenting sides ever going to agree when there are trash opinions and wild-eyed conspiracy theories such as this? Who could possibly benefit from this other than Kim Jong Il?

And before you go bashing me saying that it's he's entitled to his opinion. I should remind you that 'holocaust denial' is also an opinion...a very damaging one. No flames, just the cold hard facts....think responsibly.

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InvisibleHank, FTW
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: speeddealer]
    #6157703 - 10/11/06 11:05 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Holocaust denial is also illegal in many countries. What he posted can not be compared to holocaust denial.


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Capliberty:

"I'll blow the hinges off your freakin doors with my trips, level 5 been there, I personally like x, bud, acid and shroom oj, altogether, do that combination, and you'll meet some morbid figures, lol
Hell yeah I push the limits and hell yeah thats fucking cool, dope, bad ass and all that, I'm not changing shit, I'm cutting to to the chase and giving u shroom experience report. Real trippers aren't afraid to go beyond there comfort zone "

:rofl:

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Offlinespeeddealer
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Hank, FTW]
    #6158146 - 10/11/06 12:53 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Really? So a lie is determined by how many lives it costs? Hmmm, didn't know that..thanks for clearing it up.

So you see no comparison between lying/denying that 6-9 million people died at the hands of Nazis or incorrectly lying about an evil right wing cabal that plotted the organized destruction of buildings on American soil in order to precipitate a military response and perhaps endanger the entire citizenry of the USA in a lengthy, protracted, ground war--all in the name of cheap oil or Halliburton's stock price?

Or that we stand something to gain by standing toe to toe with a nuclear North Korea, 1 million soldiers strong?

You see no equivalent in terms of potential lives lost? Hmmm, lessee almost a million Iraqis died because of this war, numerous others left uncounted, thousands of American soldiers killed, maimed, or crippled...families destroyed...and you do not see how this sort of opinion can be extremely dangerous?

Do you not think that giving salience to wild eyed conspiracy theories can be damaging--not only to the cause of prosecuting a war, but perhaps in letting those outside the country think that we are a fractured, argumentative lot--seemingly at odds with it's own self over what to do after Afghanistan? Iraq? Iran? North Korea?

Do you not think Kim Jong Il sees it and relishes it? Do you not think that Ahmadinejad sees it and relishes it? OBL? Chavez? My point is, are they not emboldened by these 'theories'? ...and think that if they fracture Americans' political will that we will lack the ability to militarily respond to a nuclear N Korea or a nuclear Iran. How about if we, as a country were united, what could we do to help the situation in Darfur or furthering scientific discoveries in medicine rather than figuring out how to build blast proof doors?

I suppose history will judge. I am not equivocating 9/11 to the holocaust, what I am saying is that if you can't see how lies can beget other lies and eventually cause people to forget history--I will only help you try to see it. If someone openly lies about something, I am going to call them on it. That's why it's illegal in Germany, but I am glad we don't live there. I only hope that it will not cost us between 6-9 million human lives while we wait for history to judge the severity while people are sitting, spending time and energy thinking that Karl Rove figured out a way to cause an earthquake in North Korea so we can have an excuse to attack. It's drivel and in my book, should go along with holocaust denial as a dangerous lie predicated upon someone's paranoia...just like the idiots that sit around and tell me that 9/11 was an inside job, yet they can't find one single reputable source to confirm these lies....

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