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InvisibleAsante
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North Korea conspiracy
    #6149671 - 10/09/06 10:55 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

OK, here's the deal: North Korea allegedly conducted an underground nuclear test earlier today, and proudly announced no radiation was released.

But did they? I mean, really?

A decent-sized plant could output several kilotons of blasting explosives made from just water, air and electricity and a fuel, these can be poured into a 50x50x50ft underground cavity and detonated, creating a seismic shock indistinguishable from a nuclear blast, and that "no radiation has been released" might be part of a clever coverup that there in fact IS no radiation - it was a chemical explosion. The amount and type of blasting explosives needed is by no means extraordinary compared to the amounts used by a nation for quarry mining etc, it only is unusual to explode that much in one shot, so the engineering challenge is slight.

This test, if passed off well, would put North Korea on the map of nuclear powers, even when they in fact might not have been ready.

Then there is another option, which is that a nuclear power such as Russia has sold them a nuclear warhead for the purpose of simulating achievement of nuclear capability, and becoming another nation defying the USA.

What really did happen some 15 hours ago?


:crazy:
What really DID happen in North Korea?
You may choose only one


Votes accepted from (10/09/06 10:55 AM) to (No end specified)
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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6149676 - 10/09/06 10:58 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

They have nuclear capabilities, but I doubt it really matters much.

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Redstorm]
    #6149697 - 10/09/06 11:09 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

> What really did happen some 15 hours ago?

North Korea became the first government to fail detontaing a nuclear weapon on their first try. It was real. It was a dud.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Seuss]
    #6149790 - 10/09/06 11:51 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Is there a yield estimate?


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Offlinebarfightlard
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6149792 - 10/09/06 11:52 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

I read 5k to 15k, let me look for the source.

Sorry I can't find it.


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Edited by barfightlard (10/09/06 11:57 AM)

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InvisibleAsante
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: barfightlard]
    #6149810 - 10/09/06 12:01 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

5-15 kT would be excellent for a first test but

Quote:

On 9 October 2006 North Korea conducted its first ever nuclear test successfully, the test was conducted underground and was termed successful. The bomb contained the equivalent of 550 tons of TNT, causing a tremor measuring 3.6 on the Richter Scale.




0.55 kT either is a particularly loud dud, or a succesful test of a miniature nuclear weapon. Still, its radius of destruction is 0.4x that of the bomb that struck Hiroshima, which would demolish a place like Manhattan.

For all we know it was an attempt at a suitcase nuke design



because 550 tons of TNT still is 50x heavier than a MOAB.


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Offlinebarfightlard
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6149822 - 10/09/06 12:05 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Well if they supply isn't that great, I doubt they would waste a large amount for a test anyways.


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6149867 - 10/09/06 12:19 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

> Is there a yield estimate?

More than 500 tons, less than 1kt.

> For all we know it was an attempt at a suitcase nuke design

Highly unlikely. We will know soon enough. It is very unlikely that any nation would attempt a miniature design their first time out. It is much more difficult to make a small nuke than it is to make a large one. They need the data from a detonation in order to calculate the bounds allowable in miniaturization. (Which, I suspect, is why the US has been so friendly towards India's nuclear program... somebody has modern data that somebody else wants)


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Seuss]
    #6150819 - 10/09/06 04:41 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

There's the two lenses system (rugby ball shaped plutonium pit) which is more straightforward than the classic design and also happens to be small in size. They did have many existing designs to spy and extrapolate on.

Nontheless they now have a design capable of 0.5-1 kT which in itself is quite useful, either by itself or as part of a fusion-boosted design.

Even a respectable suitcase nuke should at least pass the 1 kT mark, I agree.


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Invisiblequiver
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6152870 - 10/10/06 01:22 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

after reading that i wouldnt be surprised if its true

i seen that the blast was only the size of the atomic bomb at hiroshima so its pretty lame
the thing thats a worry is those pieces of shit would make thousands of them and ship them around the world to all our enemies just like they do with heroin

what they need is a good dose of chemicals or maybe an accidental bomb that they accidently fucked up if you know what i mean and wiped them selves out,who would know?


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6153065 - 10/10/06 04:11 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

> Nontheless they now have a design capable of 0.5-1 kT which in itself is quite useful

Quiet useful? I guess, if they can get a delivery truck to haul it around... It is highly unlikely that anything they tested was weaponized. If they are serious about building weapons, then there will be another test soon. If they are throwing a temper tantrum for attention, then they won't bother with another test.

I wonder how dirty the test site is? I wonder if they closed the old coal mine down because they reached water, a common occourance. I wonder how pissed China is to get a new EPA superfund site just seventy miles from their border.

Finally, assuming I am correct and it was a dud, I wonder what went wrong. I have three guesses: they tried to assemble subcritical sections, gun style, and it blew apart before assembly (as expected); they failed to achieve a symteric implosion (unlikely from theory, possible hardware failure); they failed to initiate the chain reaction (most likely).


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6153918 - 10/10/06 11:44 AM (17 years, 7 months ago)

i wouldnt put it past karl rove to sell an earthquake as a "nucular" explosion...reports from other countries on faux news are hardly gospel...but the big problem with that scenario is whether anyone could have predicted a minor earthquake in N korea to use an advance warning for the test...

even if it was an actual nuke..it was at the most a very mini-sized one..which seems to show that the fuel wasnt pure enough and/or the implosive was faulty...its like their missiles that might get off the ground but dont come close to making it...

either way..the explosion doesnt seem to have blown mark foley off the headlines...


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Offlinespeeddealer
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Annapurna1]
    #6153947 - 10/10/06 12:00 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Annapurna1 said:
i wouldnt put it past karl rove to sell an earthquake as a "nucular" explosion...reports from other countries on faux news are hardly gospel...but the big problem with that scenario is whether anyone could have predicted a minor earthquake in N korea to use an advance warning for the test...





ummm....are you serious or just really, REALLY paranoid? Bet you know who bombed the WTC too, dontcha?

The 'world' says that a stark raving tyrant has detonated a nuclear weapon and you try to blame republicans? haha....that's rich. What color is the sky in your world?

I leave you with a quote from Trey and Matt regarding Nortk Korea and America, it sums this whole thing up in a nutshell:

"We're dicks! We're reckless, arrogant, stupid dicks. And the Film Actors Guild are pussies. And Kim Jong Il is an asshole. Pussies don't like dicks, because pussies get fucked by dicks. But dicks also fuck assholes: assholes that just want to shit on everything. Pussies may think they can deal with assholes their way. But the only thing that can fuck an asshole is a dick, with some balls. The problem with dicks is: they fuck too much or fuck when it isn't appropriate - and it takes a pussy to show them that. But sometimes, pussies can be so full of shit that they become assholes themselves... because pussies are an inch and half away from ass holes. I don't know much about this crazy, crazy world, but I do know this: If you don't let us fuck this asshole, we're going to have our dicks and pussies all covered in shit! "

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: speeddealer]
    #6153982 - 10/10/06 12:17 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

> i wouldnt put it past karl rove to sell an earthquake as a "nucular" explosion...

We can tell the difference between an earthquake and explosives on a seismograph. We can also locate the exact center and depth of the blast using several seismographs. Given samples of the blast fallout quickly enough, we can completely reverse engineer the design of the device they used.

> Bet you know who bombed the WTC too, dontcha?

Debate the topic, not the poster, please. (i.e. no flames)


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InvisibleFucknuckle
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Seuss]
    #6154384 - 10/10/06 01:58 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

It was real:rolleyes:

They have a Nuclear power plant running since the mid 1970's

They have been working on a bomb for 35 years. They would of had it far sooner of not being broke. It takes billions of dollars to make Nukes


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Fucknuckle]
    #6154809 - 10/10/06 03:44 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

You have a source for your assertions that it costs billions of dollars to make a nuke?

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InvisibleAsante
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Redstorm]
    #6155082 - 10/10/06 04:57 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

I recall that an US nuclear bomb costs 10-15 million dollars, but it needs be said that the US has an industry churning these things out by the dozen. You need to start from scratch if you build your own, which is much more expensive. To kickstart a nuke industry a few billion dollars would be reasonable.

The nuke that fizzled is specially designed for the rocket that failed so they won't suffer too much caualties when they decide to launch it  :rolleyes:


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OfflineThe_Red_Crayon
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Seuss]
    #6155102 - 10/10/06 05:01 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

NK is more then likely trying to tune up their Taepodong missile series, Its no coincidence they tested these types of intermediate,short range and long range ballisitic missiles a few months ago.

This technology will more then likely be traded around with Iran and others, just as Iran as eagerly bought up NK Nodong 1 and 2's and refined their own versions into their Shahab series of ICBMs.

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Offlinetelltale13
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
    #6155318 - 10/10/06 06:02 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

UFO!

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OfflineEconomist
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Re: North Korea conspiracy [Re: Asante]
    #6155373 - 10/10/06 06:16 PM (17 years, 7 months ago)

I just wanted to bring up 2 points that didn't seem to be mentioned in this thread yet:

First, the reason the bomb might have been very small is that North Korea has a very limited amount of nuclear fuel, and cannot efficiently or quickly produce very much more. Thus, if they are assembling weapons, they might purposefully put together a very small one for a test so as not to waste a lot of their precious fuel on a mere test run.

Second, according to CNN (I know some of you guys don't believe them so much, but I haven't found it reported elsewhere yet) Chinese officials were warned of the test just prior to when it took place. The North Koreans told them they were going to test a 4 kiloton warhead. (source: http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/10/10/korea.nuclear.test/index.html )

However, as we've all read, the resulting explosion may have been less than 1 kiloton.

This discrepancy could be due to several reasons. The device could have been designed poorly, and some of the fuel dissipated or burned off without joining the chain reaction.

Or it could have failed outright, and the North Koreans, too embarrassed after what happened to their missile earlier this year, blew up a bunch of conventional explosives to cover up the failure.

At this point I don't think there's anyway to tell what exactly happened. Personally, I wouldn't put it past the North Koreans to try and cover-up a failed nuke with a bunch of conventional explosives, they made a half-hearted attempt to cover up their previous failure by purposefully launching a bunch of stuff into the sea later in the day after their taepodong-II failed. At the same time, the Russians and the Chinese seem VERY convinced that the test was real, with the Chinese outright demanding sanctions, something we've never seen them do before.

It's hard to tell at this point, I think all we can do is wait.

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