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ZippoZ
Knomadic


Registered: 06/17/03
Posts: 13,227
Loc: Pongyang, North Korea
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Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon
#6017154 - 09/01/06 12:06 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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from http://washingtontimes.com/national/20060831-121633-7741r.htm
Quote:
The U.S. military is operating under the assumption that Iran is five to eight years away from being able to build its first nuclear weapon, a time span that explains a general lack of urgency within the Bush administration to use air strikes to disable Tehran's atomic program. Defense sources familiar with discussions of senior military commanders say the five- to eight-year projection has been discussed inside the Pentagon, which is updating its war plan for Iran. The time frame is generally in line with last year's intelligence community estimate that Iran could have the capability to produce a nuclear weapon by the beginning or middle of the next decade. But the sources said that while the five-year window provides President Bush additional time to decide on whether to launch military strikes, they suspect it underestimates Iran's determination to build a bomb as quickly as possible. Iran faces a United Nations Security Council deadline today to stop enriching uranium or face economic sanctions. Advocates of stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions point to gaps in what the U.S. intelligence community really knows about Iran's secretive process. They also point to the fact that Iraq was much closer to building the bomb than the U.S. thought in 1991, when Operation Desert Storm air strikes destroyed much of Baghdad's atomic capability. Some of this impatience was revealed in a bipartisan report Aug. 23 from the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. The report, which dealt with Iran's support for terrorism and quest for weapons of mass destruction, chastised the U.S. intelligence community for not devoting sufficient resources to Tehran. It also indirectly criticized current intelligence reporting on Iran as too timid. "An important dimension of the detection of Iran's WMD program is how intelligence analysts use intelligence to characterize these programs in their analysis," the report said. "Intelligence community managers and analysts must provide their best analytic judgments about Iranian WMD programs and not shy away from provocative conclusions or bury disagreements in consensus assessments." Concerning intelligence resources for Iran, the report said, "The national security community must dedicate the personnel and resources necessary to better assess Iran's plans, capabilities and intentions, and the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) must identify, establish, and report on intelligence goals and performance metrics to measure progress on critical fronts." Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney, a prominent proponent in Washington of air strikes against Iran, said that whether the estimate is five years or 10 years, the time span instills complacency in war planning. He said that Mr. Bush is now following the State Department's diplomatic path, without a clear policy. "Everyone is in the Jergens lotion mode -- 'woe is me.' Wringing our hands," the former fighter pilot said. Gen. McInerney advocates using B-2 stealth bombers, cruise missiles and jet fighters to conduct a one- or two-day bombing campaign to take out Iran's air defenses, military facilities and about 40 nuclear targets, which includes a Russian-built reactor and an enrichment plant. The Washington Times has previously reported that Israel has drafted plans for air strikes using long-range versions of the F-15 and F-16 fighters. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has often threatened to destroy Israel, which is within range of Iran's Shahab-3 ballistic missile. The Times also reported that U.S. Central Command is updating a target list for Iran. The House report said Iran owns the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, and is also working on a missile re-entry vehicle that could carry a nuclear warhead.
sounds like the same ol' song and dance that lead up the the iraq conflict. WMD this WMD that...
anyone else think that this may be part of the administrations pre-war media releases, by manipulating the opinions of the people with fear?
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
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downforpot
Stranger

Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 5,715
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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: ZippoZ]
#6017160 - 09/01/06 12:10 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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Yea but then again I think they are 5 years from a nuke and the government just uses the facts to gain support for war.
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http://www.myspace.com/4th25 "And I don't care if he was handcuffed Then shot in his head All I know is dead bodies Can't fuck with me again"
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ZippoZ
Knomadic


Registered: 06/17/03
Posts: 13,227
Loc: Pongyang, North Korea
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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: downforpot]
#6017163 - 09/01/06 12:11 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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did you think that iraq actually had WMD back in 03?
-------------------- PEACE
zippoz "in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption" "People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero


Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: ZippoZ]
#6017473 - 09/01/06 04:53 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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> did you think that iraq actually had WMD back in 03?
One has nothing to do with the other. I will admit that I fell for the song and dance with Iraq, and I am not happy about it. However, with Iran, things are much different. People that understand nuclear physics do not need misleading, or falsified, US intelligence to know that what Iran is doing is pointed at military use. Nothing else makes sense. They are spending billions of dollars on dangerous dual-purpose (military/civilian) technology when they could spend a fraction of that on mostly safe, single purpose, civilian only, technology.
Let me whip out my Alex Jones hat and give some predictions... Iran will continue to play the US and EU against Russia and China while continuing to avoid meaningful repercussions all the while continuing to produce enrichment technology and heavy water reactors. Iran knows the UN is impotent and only needs time. In a few years, perhaps less depending upon how well the US and EU do in the UN, they will announce that they are a nuclear power having nuclear bombs, but will not have tested a bomb. Within ten years, and probably much less, Iran will actually have produced a weaponized version of an atomic bomb.
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
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GazzBut
Refraction

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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: ZippoZ]
#6017567 - 09/01/06 06:30 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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It seems to me that the Iranians are idiots or have information they are keeping to themselves. They are basically giving the US a green light to invade, once they have gone through all the tedious UN negotiations.
Why don't they just remove themselves from the Non proliferation treaty? At least then they would have some semi-legal basis to their activities. Unfortunately it seems they maybe fixing for a fight which is very worrying as they surely must know something the rest of us dont. Maniacs on both sides of the equation, it doesnt look good!
-------------------- Always Smi2le
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GazzBut
Refraction

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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: GazzBut]
#6017570 - 09/01/06 06:33 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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Then again how can we believe that they really are enriching uranium just because the US govt and the media tell us that?
After wmd its a bit foolhardy to believe anything they say.
-------------------- Always Smi2le
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vampirism
Stranger


Registered: 03/14/04
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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: GazzBut]
#6017784 - 09/01/06 09:02 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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I don't think we could win an invasion of Iran.
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The_Red_Crayon
Exposer of Truth


Registered: 08/13/03
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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: GazzBut]
#6017891 - 09/01/06 09:52 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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They are calling our bluff right now. Its a matter of who will make the first move now. USA with Air attacks or Iran with a full out invasion of neighboring countries.
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twiggedoubt
twigburst


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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: Seuss]
#6018968 - 09/01/06 03:00 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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What kind of dumbass actually believed that horse shit about Iraq's WMD, you seem to trust our government too much.
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: ZippoZ]
#6018996 - 09/01/06 03:07 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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Well, here's a general reply:
Quote:
Highly enriched uranium found in Iran
UNITED NATIONS, Sept. 1 (UPI) -- The International Atomic Energy Agency told the U.N. Security Council its inspectors have found new traces of enriched uranium in Iran.
The discovery marked the third instance that highly enriched uranium was found at an Iranian facility, but the IAEA said the nuclear fingerprint on the new discovery does not match that found on earlier samples, which the agency had concluded came from contaminated equipment from Pakistan, The New York Times reported Friday.
The 6-page IAEA report did not identify where the uranium might have originated or whether it was connected to a secret nuclear program in Iran. The country has insisted that its nuclear program is aimed only at producing energy, a task that would use uranium enriched at much lower levels than that found by the IAEA inspectors.
I'm not going to get into the whole Iraq thing again, one has no relation to the other.
Source: http://upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?StoryID=20060901-070212-4100r
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downforpot
Stranger

Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 5,715
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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: twiggedoubt]
#6019014 - 09/01/06 03:19 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
twiggedoubt said: What kind of dumbass actually believed that horse shit about Iraq's WMD, you seem to trust our government too much.
Except Iran itself is saying they have the right to enriching uranium and they even opened up a water plant last week for a reactor. So they have it, that is for sure. The question is what do we do about it.
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http://www.myspace.com/4th25 "And I don't care if he was handcuffed Then shot in his head All I know is dead bodies Can't fuck with me again"
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero


Registered: 04/27/01
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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: GazzBut]
#6019384 - 09/01/06 04:56 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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> Then again how can we believe that they really are enriching uranium
They admit it freely... what more do you need in order to believe?
There is also more to the picture than uranium enrichment.
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
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GazzBut
Refraction

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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: Seuss]
#6019695 - 09/01/06 06:29 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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until I see it with my own eyes I will never be more than 90% sure!
-------------------- Always Smi2le
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger


Registered: 03/12/02
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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: GazzBut]
#6021258 - 09/02/06 03:07 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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We'll ship you out tomorrow, sound good?
 Peace.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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Konnrade
↑↑↓↓<--><-->BA



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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: ZippoZ]
#6021285 - 09/02/06 03:34 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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Iran should be shown exactly what the precious nuclear energy they desire can do when it's allowed to cascade out of control.
But it should be in a way with plausible deniability. They want to build expensive breeder reactors to make nukes? Well, just speed things up! Turn the reactor into a bomb!
Perhaps it's possible for a meltdown to be induced, with a little creative sabotage by mercenaries?
Sure, it's only a pipe-dream... but damn would it be poetic if one or more of iran's military reactors decided to up and explode.
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I find your lack of faith disturbing
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dr0mni
My Own Messiah


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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: Konnrade]
#6021306 - 09/02/06 03:49 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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I'm suprised I am the first to say this...
why don't we focus on North Korea WHICH ALREADY ADMITS TO HAVING NUKES!!!!!!
this article is obviously a Public-Relations/Propaganda piece meant to build support for further military conflict in the middle east. If the administration was really concerned about "rougue states" obtaining WMD's they should start with those which ALREADY HAVE THEM!!!!
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dr0mni
My Own Messiah


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Posts: 2,921
Loc: USF Tampa, Fl
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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: Konnrade]
#6021316 - 09/02/06 03:53 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
Konnrade said:
Sure, it's only a pipe-dream... but damn would it be poetic if one or more of iran's military reactors decided to up and explode.
I agree, but a pre-emptive strike would only alienate the US from the international community even further.
Wars cannot prevent wars. Only love, dialogue, and ACTION by the common, peaceful people can bring this world into harmony.
Perhaps we should just abolish large, centralized governments altogether. At least then warfare might be restricted to a village/village basis...
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fireworks_god
Sexy.Butt.McDanger


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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: dr0mni]
#6021428 - 09/02/06 05:08 AM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
dr0mni said: why don't we focus on North Korea WHICH ALREADY ADMITS TO HAVING NUKES!!!!!!
North Korea is an isolated country that isn't as relative to our interests as I imagine Iran is. Obviously, the decisions are not made solely based on whether or not a country has nuclear weapons.
 Peace.
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If I should die this very moment I wouldn't fear For I've never known completeness Like being here Wrapped in the warmth of you Loving every breath of you
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downforpot
Stranger

Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 5,715
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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: dr0mni]
#6022142 - 09/02/06 12:47 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
dr0mni said: I'm suprised I am the first to say this...
why don't we focus on North Korea WHICH ALREADY ADMITS TO HAVING NUKES!!!!!!
this article is obviously a Public-Relations/Propaganda piece meant to build support for further military conflict in the middle east. If the administration was really concerned about "rougue states" obtaining WMD's they should start with those which ALREADY HAVE THEM!!!!
We don't need to focus on NK. That country is already mostly isolated and is on the brink of collapsing.
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http://www.myspace.com/4th25 "And I don't care if he was handcuffed Then shot in his head All I know is dead bodies Can't fuck with me again"
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Hank, FTW
Looking for the Answer

Registered: 05/04/06
Posts: 3,912
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Re: Sound familiar? IRan is 5 years away from Atomic weapon [Re: dr0mni]
#6022619 - 09/02/06 03:34 PM (17 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
dr0mni said: I'm suprised I am the first to say this...
why don't we focus on North Korea WHICH ALREADY ADMITS TO HAVING NUKES!!!!!!
this article is obviously a Public-Relations/Propaganda piece meant to build support for further military conflict in the middle east. If the administration was really concerned about "rougue states" obtaining WMD's they should start with those which ALREADY HAVE THEM!!!!
Two reasons:
1) No oil in N. K. 2) No threat to Israel
-------------------- Capliberty: "I'll blow the hinges off your freakin doors with my trips, level 5 been there, I personally like x, bud, acid and shroom oj, altogether, do that combination, and you'll meet some morbid figures, lol Hell yeah I push the limits and hell yeah thats fucking cool, dope, bad ass and all that, I'm not changing shit, I'm cutting to to the chase and giving u shroom experience report. Real trippers aren't afraid to go beyond there comfort zone "
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