|
SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis


Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 7,460
Loc: Harmless (Mostly)
Last seen: 1 hour, 2 minutes
|
So who do you think won?
#5965399 - 08/15/06 08:22 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
I believe that the engagement in Lebanon will continue....that these UN resolutions will subside into nothingness. Calling this a "ceasefire" in my opinion, is nothing more then waiting for Hezbollah to rearm.
With the above said.....does anyone fell a particular side has won? And how?
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
|
Basilides
Servent ofWisdom


Registered: 02/10/06
Posts: 7,059
Loc: Crown and Heart
Last seen: 12 years, 8 months
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5965409 - 08/15/06 08:29 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
They both declared victory
--------------------
    "Have you found the beginning, then, that you are looking for the end? You see, the end will be where the beginning is. Congratulations to the one who stands at the beginning: that one will know the end and will not taste death."
|
beatnicknick
The Innovator


Registered: 05/25/05
Posts: 1,074
Last seen: 12 years, 8 months
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Basilides]
#5965417 - 08/15/06 08:37 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Israel did not abolish Hezbollah as there goal had stated. Hezbollah did resist Israel as there goal had stated, but with some loses. Israel did move Hezbollah out of the south where the boarder meets, so they won in there minds, Hezbollah resisted, they won in there minds.
-------------------- I don't think for myself. I think as though I'm explaining my thoughts to someone else. I'm concerned only for those listening.
|
Gijith
Daisy Chain Eater

Registered: 12/04/03
Posts: 2,400
Loc: New York
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5965421 - 08/15/06 08:41 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
It seems like a victory for Israel.
-------------------- what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?
|
zorbman
blarrr


Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5965433 - 08/15/06 08:50 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
I would call it a draw since Hezbollah went toe-to-toe with a heavyweight and was still standing at the end of the fight.
Maybe even a moral victory for them.
Israel took them down a notch or two, but greatly strengthened Hezbollah politically. Iran will just ship them more missles and they'll be stronger than ever in a couple years.
-------------------- “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” -- Rudiger Dornbusch
|
SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis


Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 7,460
Loc: Harmless (Mostly)
Last seen: 1 hour, 2 minutes
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: zorbman]
#5965440 - 08/15/06 08:55 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
http://debka.com/article.php?aid=1201
Tehran Takes Gloomy View of the Lebanon War and Truce
August 14, 2006, 3:35 PM (GMT+02:00)
While the damage caused Israel’s military reputation tops Western assessments of the Lebanon war, DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report an entirely different perception taking hold in ruling circles in Tehran.
After UN Security Council resolution 1701 calling for a truce was carried Friday, Aug. 11, the heads of the regime received two separate evaluations of the situation in Lebanon – one from Iran’s foreign ministry and one from its supreme national security council. Both were bleak: their compilers were concerned that Iran had been manipulatively robbed of its primary deterrent asset ahead of a probable nuclear confrontation with the United States and Israel.
While the foreign ministry report highlighted the negative aspects of the UN resolution, the council’s document complained that Hizballah squandered thousands of rockets – either by firing them into Israel or having them destroyed by the Israeli air force.
The writer of this report is furious over the waste of Iran’s most important military investment in Lebanon merely for the sake of a conflict with Israeli over two kidnapped soldiers.
It took Iran two decades to build up Hizballah’s rocket inventory.
DEBKAfile’s sources estimate that Hizballah’s adventure wiped out most of the vast sum of $4-6 bn the Iranian treasury sunk into building its military strength. The organization was meant to be strong and effective enough to provide Iran with a formidable deterrent to Israel embarking on a military operation to destroy the Islamic regime’s nuclear infrastructure.
To this end, Tehran bought the Israeli military doctrine of preferring to fight its wars on enemy soil. In the mid-1980s, Iran decided to act on this doctrine by coupling its nuclear development program with Israel’s encirclement and the weakening its deterrence strength. The Jewish state was identified at the time as the only country likely to take vigorous action to spike Iran’s nuclear aspirations.
The ayatollahs accordingly promoted Hizballah’s rise as a socio-political force in Lebanon, at the same time building up its military might and capabilities for inflicting damage of strategic dimensions to Israel’s infrastructure.
That effort was accelerated after Israeli forces withdrew from the Lebanese security zone in May 2000. A bunker network and chain of fortified positions were constructed, containing war rooms equipped with the finest western hi-tech gadgetry, including night vision gear, computers and electronics, as well as protective devices against bacteriological and chemical warfare.
This fortified network was designed for assault and defense alike.
Short- medium- and long-range rockets gave the hard edge to Hizballah’s ablity to conduct a destructive war against Israel and its civilians – when the time was right for Tehran.
Therefore, Iran’s rulers are hopping mad and deeply anxious over news of the huge damage sustained by Hizballah’s rocket inventory, which was proudly touted before the war as numbering 13,000 pieces.
Hizballah fighters, they are informed, managed to fire only a small number of Khaibar-1 rockets, most of which hit Haifa and Afula, while nearly 100 were destroyed or disabled by Israeli air strikes.
The long-range Zelzal-1 and Zelzal-2, designed for hitting Tel Aviv and the nuclear reactor at Dimona have been degraded even more. Iran sent over to Lebanon 50 of those missiles. The keys to the Zelzal stores stayed in the hands of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers who were in command of Hizballah. Nasrallah and his officers had no access to these stores.
But Tehran has learned that Israel was able to destroy most of the 22 Zelzal launchers provided.
That is not the end of the catalogue of misfortunes for the Islamic rulers of Iran.
1. The UN Security Council embodied in resolution 1701 a chapter requiring Hizballah to disarm – in the face of a stern warning issued by supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in person in the early days of the war. Revolutionary Guards commanders went so far as to boast: “No one alive is capable of disarming Hizballah.”
The disarming of Hizballah would therefore be a bad knock to the supreme ruler’s authority and prestige as well as a disastrous blow for the deterrent force so painstakingly and expensively fashioned as a second front line to protect the Islamic republic from a safe distance.
2. Hizballah’s ejection from South Lebanon, if accomplished in the aftermath of the ceasefire, would moreover deprive Tehran of the sword hanging over Israel’s head of instantaneous attack.
For the sake of partial damage control, Tehran handed Nasrallah a set of new instructions Sunday, Aug. 13:
First, to find a way of evading the ceasefire and keeping up war operations against Israeli forces.
Second, to reject the proposal to disarm before the Lebanese government meets on this Monday afternoon. In fact, that meeting was called off after Hassan Nasrallah sent a message to the Lebanese ministers flatly refusing to have Hizballah give up its weapons in the south. He also turned down a compromise proposal handed him later, whereby the Lebanese army’s first mission after deploying in the south would be to help Hizballah evacuate its fighters with their arms to positions north of the Litani River.
The strategy evolving in Tehran since the ceasefire went into effect Monday morning requires Hizballah to employ a range of stratagems – not only to prevent the truce from stabilizing but to stop the Lebanese army from deploying n the south and, above all, the entry of an effective international force.
Furthermore, Hizballah is instructed to stretch the military crisis into the next three of four months, synchronously with the timetable for a UN Security Council sanctions-wielding session on Iran.
According to exclusive reports reaching DEBKAfile’s sources, the Iranian government believes that Israel and the United States are preparing a military operation for the coming October and November to strike Iran’s nuclear installations. It is therefore vital to keep the two armies fully occupied with other pursuits.
Iranian leaders’ conviction that the Lebanon war was staged to bamboozle them rests on certain perceptions:
As seen from Tehran, Israel looked as though it was carrying out a warming-up exercise in preparation for its main action against Iran’s nuclear program. The Israeli army was able to explore, discover and correct its weak points, understand what was lacking and apply the necessary remedial measures. They therefore expect the IDF to emerge from the war having produced novel methods of warfare.
They also have no doubt that the United States will replenish Israel’s war chest with a substantial aid program of new and improved weaponry.
From the Iranian viewpoint, Israel succeeded in seriously degrading Hizballah’s capabilities. It was also able to throw the Lebanese Shiite militia to the wolves; the West is now in a position to force Nasrallah and his men to quit southern Lebanon and disarm. The West shut its eyes when he flouted the Resolution 1559 order for the disarmament of all Lebanese militias. But that game is over. The Americans will use Resolution 1701 as an effect weapon to squeeze Iran, denied of its second-front deterrence, on its nuclear program.
Tehran hopes to pre-empt the American move by torpedoing the Lebanon ceasefire and preventing the termination of hostilities at all costs
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
|
Seuss
Error: divide byzero


Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 2 months, 20 days
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5965598 - 08/15/06 10:08 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Neither side won... but, the Lebanese civilians certainly lost.
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
|
Basilides
Servent ofWisdom


Registered: 02/10/06
Posts: 7,059
Loc: Crown and Heart
Last seen: 12 years, 8 months
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: beatnicknick]
#5965805 - 08/15/06 11:24 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
beatnicknick said: Israel did not abolish Hezbollah as there goal had stated. Hezbollah did resist Israel as there goal had stated, but with some loses. Israel did move Hezbollah out of the south where the boarder meets, so they won in there minds, Hezbollah resisted, they won in there minds.
So basically it was like a World Cup qualifier with an own goal.
--------------------
    "Have you found the beginning, then, that you are looking for the end? You see, the end will be where the beginning is. Congratulations to the one who stands at the beginning: that one will know the end and will not taste death."
|
Silversoul
Rhizome


Registered: 01/01/05
Posts: 23,576
Loc: The Barricades
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5965824 - 08/15/06 11:32 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Nobody seems to have learned anything from this. Therefore, nobody won.
--------------------
|
Annapurna1
liberal pussy

Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5965827 - 08/15/06 11:33 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
lets just hope sy hersh is wrong..and the big winner doesnt eventually turn out to be king george...insofar as hizbulllah vs israel..theres no clear winner at this point..although hizbullarh did manage to get the israelis out of lebanon under the terms of the ceasefire...
--------------------
"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
|
Basilides
Servent ofWisdom


Registered: 02/10/06
Posts: 7,059
Loc: Crown and Heart
Last seen: 12 years, 8 months
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Annapurna1]
#5965860 - 08/15/06 11:43 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Why is it Seymour Hersh always the one to uncover mind blowing scandals? Because all that's blowing is hot wind.
--------------------
    "Have you found the beginning, then, that you are looking for the end? You see, the end will be where the beginning is. Congratulations to the one who stands at the beginning: that one will know the end and will not taste death."
|
Seuss
Error: divide byzero


Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 2 months, 20 days
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Basilides]
#5965983 - 08/15/06 12:22 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
> although hizbullarh did manage to get the israelis out of lebanon under the terms of the ceasefire...
At what cost to the civilian population? I also don't see how you can claim that Hezbollah had anything at all to do with getting the Israelis out of Lebanon? Had the rest of the world ignored the conflict, then Israel would still be destroying anything and everything that they could. Hezbollah was impotent in the conflict. The most they could do was fire random rockets into Israel hoping they hit something or kill somebody while hiding behind innocent civilians. Sure, they helped slow down the Israel ground advance, but they could not have stopped it. I suppose Hezbollah can take credit for bringing Israel into Lebanon, but not much else.
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
|
The_Red_Crayon
Exposer of Truth


Registered: 08/13/03
Posts: 13,673
Loc: Smokey Mtns. TN
Last seen: 6 years, 8 months
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Seuss]
#5965999 - 08/15/06 12:29 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Believe me Hezbollah would of benefitted alot more if they occupied south Lebanon. Then they could wage a insurgency similar to Iraq.
|
RosettaStoned
Stranger

Registered: 05/29/06
Posts: 540
Loc: North America
Last seen: 15 years, 10 months
|
|
Quote:
The_Red_Crayon said: Believe me Hezbollah would of benefitted alot more if they occupied south Lebanon. Then they could wage a insurgency similar to Iraq.
My guess is isreal is quite aware of this, which is why they will not occupy.
-------------------- "Government big enough to provide you with all you need is also big enough to take everything you have." ~ Thomas Jefferson "Without stupid, faggy potheads we wouldn't have wars." - Zappa
|
Vvellum
Stranger

Registered: 05/24/04
Posts: 10,920
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5966938 - 08/15/06 05:44 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
I think Hezbollah and Iran won this one. Read this opinion piece to understand why:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opini...ncommentary-hed
Quote:
After cease-fire, who has the edge? Hezbollah, Iran gain more than Israel, U.S.
By Raja Kamal, associate dean for resource development at the Harris School for Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago Published August 15, 2006
A cease-fire is finally here. The global community has successfully brokered an overdue end to the tragic war between Israel and Hezbollah. Now that the dust is beginning to settle, we can begin to tally the winners and losers.
Although the Israeli military pounding of Lebanon during the last month has degraded Hezbollah's military capabilities, its leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah--at least in the short run--has emerged victorious. He fought and defied one of the best-equipped and trained armies in the world--something none of the traditional Arab armies have been able to do since the birth of modern Israel in 1948. Hezbollah managed to maintain (and in some cases increase) the frequency of the rocket attacks that paralyzed and stunned much of northern Israel. Nasrallah has gained admiration on the Arab streets and forced respect and political recognition by Middle Eastern leaders.
Nasrallah, who until recently was becoming increasingly marginalized for being out of touch with mainstream Lebanese politics, is now a major power broker in Lebanon--someone that U.S., Israeli and Arab governments may have to start to engage politically.
But Hezbollah and Nasrallah are not the only victors. Iran is also a winner. As a spiritual and financial backer of Hezbollah, Iran's investment has paid off.
Like Iraq, Iran is now entrenched in the political landscape of Lebanon. Since the regime change in Baghdad, Iran has been using Islam successfully to penetrate political boundaries in the region. Lebanon's Shiite population was clearly receptive to Iran's ambitions. To Shiites in the Arab world, Tehran has come to signify what the Vatican is to Catholics.
Iran is now a key player in Arab countries with significant Shiite populations. The fall of Iraq's Saddam Hussein has made Iran's aspirations natural and effortless.
The people of Lebanon and Israel were the ultimate losers. Civilians, including women and children, were the majority of casualties.
In Lebanon, the damage to the country's infrastructure is significant and will cost several billions of dollars to rebuild. This, in addition to the loss of revenue from close to 2 million tourists expected to vacation in Lebanon this year. It may take years to recover. Furthermore, 1 million people (one-quarter of Lebanon's population) have been displaced. Many have lost their homes, and the financially strapped government will have to cope with the challenge of housing them. This is a significant setback to the Lebanese economy, which had been on the track to recovery. The government of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora has become weaker and increasingly marginalized, while Nasrallah emerges as a formidable leader.
Israel, with a much larger and more resilient economy than Lebanon, has been noticeably impacted by this war as well. Many of the factories in the north have shut down, and reservists responding to the call of duty have put their jobs on hold, thus slowing productivity. Many towns and cities in northern Israel have been evacuated to minimize the casualties from Hezbollah rockets. Like their Lebanese neighbors, Israeli lives have been significantly altered. Yet the leadership of Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will be judged as a failure. What do you have to show for this military engagement? Not much.
At the end of the day, Hezbollah is very much alive and significantly stronger politically. The war in Lebanon did not achieve the return of the two captured soldiers. Negotiations will. And, the disproportionate Israeli military response has unified the vast majority of Lebanese opinion against Israel and created an uphill battle on the global public relations front. The sad events in Qana, Lebanon, did not help either. If there is a country in the Arab world that has all the ingredients to have an organic peace with Israel, it is Lebanon. Unfortunately, this is now an unthinkable proposition to the people of Lebanon.
Finally, the U.S. State Department under the leadership of Condoleezza Rice also emerged from this war as a failure.
The prediction that Israel would eradicate Hezbollah swiftly delayed any U.S. intervention to end the war and minimize the destruction and casualties. Thus, the Bush administration lost the initiative to exhibit leadership and assert momentum to move toward an early conclusion to this sad episode. The delay created a credibility gap and the further weakening of the central moderate government in Lebanon, which needed international support.
Wars are horrible and this one is no exception. Will peace and tranquility come out of it? Perhaps there is an opportunity that will allow Hezbollah and the Israelis to settle their issues once and for all.
The healing and rebuilding must now begin.
Only comprehensive peace will permanently defuse Hezbollah and marginalize Iran.
Copyright © 2006, Chicago Tribune
|
Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5967004 - 08/15/06 05:59 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Its sad to say, but hezbollah won.
-they still have thousands of missiles -they got away with firing hundreds of missiles -none of their leaders were captured -the kidnapped/POW israeli soldiers are still not retrieved -israel spent at least a billion feeding their war machine -hezbollah is as much in power in the region as they were before -the israeli violence reinforced arab world stereotypes about israel -israel was forced to a ceasefire while hezbollah always demanded that they stopped
when you're beat, you're beat. The tragedy is that the Lebanese people had a modern army tear their country to shreds, hezbollah is as strong as ever and israel is still very gung ho to "finish the job".
I can still see this escalating.
If israel gets provoked, it is known to overreact. If hezbollah is met with breach of the ceasefire they will flush a thousand missiles, hitting everything they can, while at the moment northern Israel is repopulating again. Israel will go apeshit, and because of this neighboring arab nations might decide to "come to Lebanon's aid".
People should stop the violence period.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
|
Phred
Fred's son


Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 12,949
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 9 years, 18 days
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5967021 - 08/15/06 06:02 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Hezbollah won this one big time, especially when one considers the terms of the ceasefire will not be fulfilled by Hezbollah. They will not disarm or allow anyone else to disarm them. The agreement is just another useless piece of UN toilet paper.
Phred
--------------------
|
Dexter_Morgan
Towlie's Mentor



Registered: 02/09/05
Posts: 6,666
Loc: higher than you
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Seuss]
#5967801 - 08/15/06 10:00 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Seuss said: Lebanese civilians certainly lost.
-------------------- Uncleluke, getting his assbeat, then he tries to delete it http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/6355469#Post6355469 Tomato-Faced Banez http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/5933438#Post5933438 Dexter's Thesaurus beer = guinness smoke = vaporize pubers = reasons to be pro-choice
|
JesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
Posts: 1,459
Last seen: 11 years, 4 months
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Seuss]
#5967868 - 08/15/06 10:25 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Seuss said: > although hizbullarh did manage to get the israelis out of lebanon under the terms of the ceasefire...
At what cost to the civilian population? I also don't see how you can claim that Hezbollah had anything at all to do with getting the Israelis out of Lebanon? Had the rest of the world ignored the conflict, then Israel would still be destroying anything and everything that they could. Hezbollah was impotent in the conflict. The most they could do was fire random rockets into Israel hoping they hit something or kill somebody while hiding behind innocent civilians. Sure, they helped slow down the Israel ground advance, but they could not have stopped it. I suppose Hezbollah can take credit for bringing Israel into Lebanon, but not much else.
I agree with you.
I would hate to be Lebanese right now. Iran and Syria are fighting a proxy war and the only destruction is in Lebanon. They don't have the power to call it off and they get hammered.
People are saying that Hezbolla has gained stature in this venture. If I am Lebanese I don't want them to try to gain any more stature. I would want to find a way to open the debate into asking them to leave.
Lebanon gets destroyed, and Iran and Syria claim victory. That would suck for me if I was from Lebanon. Even if I hated the Jews until the cows came home I would be calling bullshit. Take your own fucking bullets for the cause.
-------------------- Tastes just like chicken
|
downforpot
Stranger

Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 5,715
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Phred]
#5968382 - 08/16/06 12:59 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Phred said: Hezbollah won this one big time, especially when one considers the terms of the ceasefire will not be fulfilled by Hezbollah. They will not disarm or allow anyone else to disarm them. The agreement is just another useless piece of UN toilet paper.
Phred
HIP HIP HORRAY, HIP HIP HORRAY, YAY FOR THE UN.
--------------------
http://www.myspace.com/4th25 "And I don't care if he was handcuffed Then shot in his head All I know is dead bodies Can't fuck with me again"
|
Seuss
Error: divide byzero


Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 2 months, 20 days
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: JesusChrist]
#5968601 - 08/16/06 04:07 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
> Lebanon gets destroyed, and Iran and Syria claim victory.
Don't forget the US and Israel also claim victory. Disgusting, all the way around.
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
|
Jim


Registered: 04/07/04
Posts: 20,922
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5968786 - 08/16/06 07:22 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
SirTripAlot said: Calling this a "ceasefire" in my opinion, is nothing more then waiting for Hezbollah to rearm.
I really don't give a shit about what goes on over there, since it has been going on since the start of recorded time... BUT... Hezbollah doesn't need to rearm... they have been launching rockets since the ceasefire, but the rockets are dropping before the border... Israel has not responded... YET...
and the USA is the only winner...
-------------------- Use the Fucking Reply To Feature You Lazy Pieces of Shit! afoaf said: Jim, if you were in my city, I would let you fuck my wife.
|
SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis


Registered: 01/11/05
Posts: 7,460
Loc: Harmless (Mostly)
Last seen: 1 hour, 2 minutes
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Jim]
#5969447 - 08/16/06 01:25 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Interesting Article
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20060816-122813-5639r.htm
Mossad missed Hezbollah threat By Bill Gertz THE WASHINGTON TIMES August 16, 2006
Israel's storied foreign-intelligence service failed to fully understand the threat posed by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, based on a view among many analysts that the guerrilla organization was an evolving political group, according to U.S. officials and private intelligence specialists. The Mossad had intelligence about most Hezbollah weapons, including rockets fired into Israel and other hardware. But the service knew little about the military and intelligence side of Hezbollah, a diverse organization made up of Islamic terrorists, conventionally armed militia forces, a charity wing and a political movement. Mossad is famous for past exploits, including the global campaign in the 1970s to track down and kill Palestinian terrorists in retaliation for the deaths of 11 Israeli athletes and coaches at the 1972 Munich Olympics. Its specialty has been recruiting agents inside terrorist groups and using their information to effectively counter or limit attacks. However, the recent fighting in southern Lebanon revealed major shortcomings in the agency's intelligence on the precise locations of Hezbollah leaders and rocket launchers, said officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "This was an intelligence failure, but not on the same scale as those of the United States prior to 9/11," said one U.S. official long involved in intelligence matters. The U.S. official said Mossad's lack of intelligence about Hezbollah dates back to 1998, when the terrorist group began a strategy of conducting clandestine attacks while also seeking public support through charitable work and joining the political process in Lebanon. The bias regarding Hezbollah's evolving nature had an effect on the activities of Israeli spies and agents in the field, which contributed to misperceptions about the group, the officials said. Robert Baer, a former CIA operations officer who is familiar with Mossad, said the Israeli intelligence agency failed to gather good intelligence on Hezbollah, in stark contrast to its very successful efforts against Palestinian terrorists. Israeli intelligence, mainly the Shin Bet domestic service, thoroughly penetrated many Palestinian terrorist groups. But Hezbollah employs extremely tight operational security to prevent penetration by Mossad or other intelligence services, Mr. Baer said. Hezbollah operates its military and intelligence wings in utmost secrecy, and they are completely separate from the charitable and political wings, he said. "Military-intelligence people do not talk to political leadership or rank-and-file people who do social work," he said. Dennis Pluchinsky, a former State Department intelligence analyst, said Mossad may have been "counting on the Lebanese population and government to turn on Hezbollah."
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
|
Machiavellian
Stranger
Registered: 08/15/06
Posts: 5
Last seen: 16 years, 10 months
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5969812 - 08/16/06 03:11 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
The ceasefire was a very bad idea.
All it did was make all those Israeli and Lebanese die for no good reason - if hezbollah was wiped out, they atleast died for a reason (some will argue good, some will argue bad). Since hezbollah isnt wiped out, the whole thing was a waste.
|
Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
|
|
Quote:
All it did was make all those Israeli and Lebanese die for no good reason - if hezbollah was wiped out, they atleast died for a reason (some will argue good, some will argue bad). Since hezbollah isnt wiped out, the whole thing was a waste.
Many thousands more would have died if the conflict was to endure like this. To prevent that, a ceasefire.
Those Lebanese lives weren't Israels to sacrifice.
The war was lost for Israel to begin with. They try to be the USA of the middle east, but like the USA they've met their Vietnam, and theirs is right next door.
You can't defeat Hezbollah. Ever. The problem is that Hezbollah stands for an ideology, and you can't end an ideology by killing its followers. Look at nazism: you'd say we killed it dead in 1945, but now its over 60 years later and theres all sorts of neonazis.
You can't kill an ideology and you can't disarm large masses of people. This war effort was doomed to fail, and the Lebanese (and many innocent Israeli civilians) had to pay the price.
Almost 4 million people, the Lebanese, have had their land shot to hell. Cities in ruins, roads and bridges bombed, airports and harbors destroyed. A huge oil spill at the coast. Many of them will blame the people who dropped the bombs.
Hezbollah = Viet Cong
Guerilla fighters on their home turf. Kill one and two people will take his place. You can't win by killing them, you can only win by disarming the notion that the Israelis have got to go. This is not done by bombin a nation to smittereens.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
|
zappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Asante]
#5970335 - 08/16/06 06:09 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
If the Lebanese do not disarm Hezbollah they are going to get it again. And they will deserve it. Again. You cannot allow these people free rein in your nation or you are complicit in their acts.
--------------------
|
Hank, FTW
Looking for the Answer

Registered: 05/04/06
Posts: 3,912
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Jim]
#5970662 - 08/16/06 07:28 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
Jim said:
Quote:
SirTripAlot said: Calling this a "ceasefire" in my opinion, is nothing more then waiting for Hezbollah to rearm.
I really don't give a shit about what goes on over there, since it has been going on since the start of recorded time... BUT... Hezbollah doesn't need to rearm... they have been launching rockets since the ceasefire, but the rockets are dropping before the border... Israel has not responded... YET...
and the USA is the only winner...
I wonder if Hezbollah is firing at the Israelis still in Lebanon?
-------------------- Capliberty: "I'll blow the hinges off your freakin doors with my trips, level 5 been there, I personally like x, bud, acid and shroom oj, altogether, do that combination, and you'll meet some morbid figures, lol Hell yeah I push the limits and hell yeah thats fucking cool, dope, bad ass and all that, I'm not changing shit, I'm cutting to to the chase and giving u shroom experience report. Real trippers aren't afraid to go beyond there comfort zone "
|
Hank, FTW
Looking for the Answer

Registered: 05/04/06
Posts: 3,912
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: zappaisgod]
#5970706 - 08/16/06 07:37 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
zappaisgod said: If the Lebanese do not disarm Hezbollah they are going to get it again. And they will deserve it. Again. You cannot allow these people free rein in your nation or you are complicit in their acts.
Maybe Israel should stop invading their country, over and over again. Then I bet recruits for Hezbollah would drop like crazy. The more Israel attacks, the more they help their enemies.
-------------------- Capliberty: "I'll blow the hinges off your freakin doors with my trips, level 5 been there, I personally like x, bud, acid and shroom oj, altogether, do that combination, and you'll meet some morbid figures, lol Hell yeah I push the limits and hell yeah thats fucking cool, dope, bad ass and all that, I'm not changing shit, I'm cutting to to the chase and giving u shroom experience report. Real trippers aren't afraid to go beyond there comfort zone "
|
zappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Hank, FTW]
#5970721 - 08/16/06 07:41 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Maybe Hezbollah should not have invaded Israel and opened up that can of whupass. You may be willing to spread your cheeks wide for repeated cross border attacks but the Israelis aren't. Israel has never set one booted foot into Lebanon without provocation.
--------------------
|
Hank, FTW
Looking for the Answer

Registered: 05/04/06
Posts: 3,912
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: zappaisgod]
#5970781 - 08/16/06 07:57 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Do you actually believe what you say? Israel was occupying southern Lebanon for 20 years. Hence the need for a guerrilla force, Hezbollah. I have no reason to believe Israel was not on Lebanese soil, as I have seen reports of both claims. Can you Imagine ANY country occupying a part of Israel for any amount of time? After what they just did to Lebanon, I would say they deserve to occupy part of northern Israel for a good 100 years. Yeah, that seems plenty fair according to Israeli rules.
Every time Israel bombs a country into the stone age over a "provocation" they create many more enemies. Why can't you and them understand that?
What was it? 7, 8 Israeli soldiers killed/captured (by a gorilla force), so what did that Lebanon get. I will say this until I am blue in the face, Israel responded with unreasonable force, and created more enemies then it killed. Those 900 and something Lebanese killed had families, if I was one of them, I would not be pissed with Hezbollah, I would be pissed with the ones who dropped the bombs.
-------------------- Capliberty: "I'll blow the hinges off your freakin doors with my trips, level 5 been there, I personally like x, bud, acid and shroom oj, altogether, do that combination, and you'll meet some morbid figures, lol Hell yeah I push the limits and hell yeah thats fucking cool, dope, bad ass and all that, I'm not changing shit, I'm cutting to to the chase and giving u shroom experience report. Real trippers aren't afraid to go beyond there comfort zone "
Edited by alpharedecho (08/16/06 07:58 PM)
|
RosettaStoned
Stranger

Registered: 05/29/06
Posts: 540
Loc: North America
Last seen: 15 years, 10 months
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Hank, FTW]
#5971060 - 08/16/06 08:53 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Only naive people can imagine arabs in lebanon being pissed at themselves for this. They know damn well who is to blame for the destruction and it is those who dropped the bombs. Hezbollah's ranks will swell now and "disarmed" is the last thing that's going to happen.
After all, does the US even want hezbollah eliminated? That would be 1 less thing we can blame on iran then.
-------------------- "Government big enough to provide you with all you need is also big enough to take everything you have." ~ Thomas Jefferson "Without stupid, faggy potheads we wouldn't have wars." - Zappa
|
Annapurna1
liberal pussy

Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
|
|
Quote:
After all, does the US even want hezbollah eliminated?
as long as the repugnicans can capitalize on the voters' fear of terrorism..they will need terrorists..including hizbullah...
--------------------
"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
|
Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: zappaisgod]
#5972161 - 08/17/06 06:16 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
If the Lebanese do not disarm Hezbollah they are going to get it again.
Thats basically the same stance as taken by the government in the War on Drugs. The same applies here.
You cannot disarm Hezbollah, just like you cannot "stamp out crime". You just can't.
As we speak Hezbollah fighters are searching the lands for dud Israeli bombs, which litter the landscape. These dud bombs are taken to workshops and toolsheds where the tips are screwed off. These dud bombs either are turned into improvised landmines, or the explosives from them are salvaged for other uses.
One such bomb, let's say a generic "dumb" 500lbs arial bomb, yields 250 lbs of high explosives, which can be used to make 25 belts for suicide bombers or some 1.500 improvised hand grenades or fill the warheads of 12 Qassam III rockets. This is what guerilla fighters do, be they Viet Cong or assorted gangs in Iraq.
And so the cycle of violence continues. What Israel has accomplished is to further anger the arab world, and supplying Hezbollah with tons of explosives and a wave of new recruits.
Who has won? Not Israel, and certainly not the people of Lebanon
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
|
BatCountry
Wanderer


Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 76
Loc: Uranus
Last seen: 13 years, 10 months
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: Asante]
#5972420 - 08/17/06 10:18 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
In The end Israel comes out with a fake victory ( just like the U.S. in Iraq) Hezbollah is still armed, and over 1100 innocent lebanese civilians lie dead, thousands more homeless, and The the Scourge of Corporate America is able to jack up oil prices. "Its a big shit sandwich and we all gotta take a bite" In War No one wins. We are just told otherwise.
-------------------- Why Should I take Your Bad Trip? -Ken Kesey
|
downforpot
Stranger

Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 5,715
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: BatCountry]
#5972517 - 08/17/06 11:04 AM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Actually oil prices are pretty low now. And keep thinking that the oil companies control the prices, maybe some day it will come true.
--------------------
http://www.myspace.com/4th25 "And I don't care if he was handcuffed Then shot in his head All I know is dead bodies Can't fuck with me again"
|
Dexter_Morgan
Towlie's Mentor



Registered: 02/09/05
Posts: 6,666
Loc: higher than you
|
Re: So who do you think won? [Re: downforpot]
#5972679 - 08/17/06 12:13 PM (17 years, 5 months ago) |
|
|
Quote:
So who do you think won?
Defense Contractors!
Gotta re-arm for next time
-------------------- Uncleluke, getting his assbeat, then he tries to delete it http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/6355469#Post6355469 Tomato-Faced Banez http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/5933438#Post5933438 Dexter's Thesaurus beer = guinness smoke = vaporize pubers = reasons to be pro-choice
|
|