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InvisibleDiploidM
Cuban

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
NOAA Updates Hurricane Season Outlook
    #5946618 - 08/09/06 07:21 AM (15 years, 2 months ago)

NOAA's August 8 hurricane forecast was issued today, and calls for a less active season than their May 22 outlook did. However, they still predict a 75% chance of a more active than usual hurricane season, with 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-4 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May 22 forecast called for 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes. The key statistic that should cheer us up is the forecast reduction in the number of intense hurricanes, by 1-2.

NOAA follows the lead of the other major forecasting groups, which have all reduced their forecast number of named storms and hurricanes by 1 or 2 since May. Here's a comparison of what the four groups currently are forecasting:

NOAA Aug 8 forecast: 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 intense hurricanes.
Dr. Bill Gray Aug 3 forecast: 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes.
Cuba Institute of Meteorology Aug 1 forecast: 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Last named storm ends in mid-November.
Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. Aug 4 forecast: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3-4 intense hurricanes.

Why the reduction in storms?
NOAA cites three main reasons for reducing their forecast numbers:

1) Sea surface temperatures anomalies (departures from normal) cooled during June and July. This happened due to stronger trade winds over the Atlantic. In addition, surface pressures have been higher than average. Hurricane formation is enhanced when lower surface pressures are present.

2) La Nina died quicker than expected. This has resulted in higher wind shear over the Atlantic.

3) The persistent upper-level ridge (and associated westward extension of the Bermuda High) over the eastern U.S., which contributed to the extremely active 2003-2005 hurricane seasons, is not present this year.

NOAA does not make seasonal forecasts of where hurricanes might make landfall, but notes that similar above-normal seasons have historically averaged 2-3 landfalling hurricanes in the continental United States and 2-3 hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=452&tstamp=200608


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.


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InvisibleZippoZM
Knomadic
 User Gallery

Registered: 06/17/03
Posts: 13,227
Loc: Pongyang, North Korea
Re: NOAA Updates Hurricane Season Outlook [Re: Diploid]
    #5947599 - 08/09/06 04:34 PM (15 years, 2 months ago)

yeah, go figure....
kinda disapointing, i was looking forward to a big storm this year.


--------------------
PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


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OfflineCatalysis
EtherealEngineer

Registered: 04/23/02
Posts: 1,742
Last seen: 13 years, 3 months
Re: NOAA Updates Hurricane Season Outlook [Re: Diploid]
    #5948281 - 08/09/06 08:29 PM (15 years, 2 months ago)

I clearly remember reading story after story from experts about how this would be "possibly one of the worst hurricane seasons in history". So far, they couldn't have been more wrong. They give a few excuses but is that really all it takes to make such an error? Are their predictions nothing more than "well, this was a pretty bad year so next year should be similar"?..Then if it isn't they essentially say "oops, things changed"?

I dunno, Ive always been skeptical of these long-term forcasts which are presented as though they are hard science. They seem to be based on the assumption that climate trends never change and, at their worst, politically influenced.


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InvisibleZippoZM
Knomadic
 User Gallery

Registered: 06/17/03
Posts: 13,227
Loc: Pongyang, North Korea
Re: NOAA Updates Hurricane Season Outlook [Re: Catalysis]
    #5948478 - 08/09/06 09:31 PM (15 years, 2 months ago)

*cough* sensational media *cough*


--------------------
PEACE

:mushroom2:zippoz:mushroom2:



"in times of widespread chaos and confusion, it has been the duty of more advanced human beings - artists, scientists, clowns, and philosophers - to create order. In such times as ours however, when there is too much order, too much m management, too much programming and control, it becomes the duty of superior men and women and women to fling their favorite monkey wrenches into the machinery. To relieve the repression of the human spirit, they must sow doubt and disruption"

"People do it every day, they talk to themselves ... they see themselves as they'd like to be, they don't have the courage you have, to just run with it."


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Offlined33p
Welcome to Violence

Registered: 07/12/03
Posts: 5,381
Loc: the shores of Tripoli
Last seen: 8 years, 4 months
Re: NOAA Updates Hurricane Season Outlook [Re: ZippoZ]
    #5948990 - 08/10/06 12:10 AM (15 years, 2 months ago)

they really have no idea what the fuck they are doing

If this season ends up being one of the tamest in recent history I'm gonna laugh so hard Al Gore is gonna hear me even with his head buried up his own ass.


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I'm a nihilist. Lets be friends.

bang bang


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OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 4 months, 13 days
Re: NOAA Updates Hurricane Season Outlook [Re: d33p]
    #5949737 - 08/10/06 06:51 AM (15 years, 2 months ago)

>>> from experts about how this would be "possibly one of the worst hurricane seasons in history".

Experts like Al Gore.  :rolleyes:

>> *cough* sensational media *cough*

Exactly.  Remember, global warming is going to kill us all.

> they really have no idea what the fuck they are doing

The climatologists are pretty good at what they do, as are the hurricane experts like Dr. Gray.  The people that have no idea what the fuck they are doing are the people making up the news and the people sitting on their couch at home, pretending to be an expert on "global warming".

> was looking forward to a big storm this year.

Not me *shiver*.  Of course, I am a target in the shooting gallery.  Storms are a lot more fun when you don't have to deal with three months with no electricity afterwards.  Hoping for a big storm, something which can displace the lives of hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people, and cost the country billions of dollars in tax payer money, is a bit shallow in my opinion.  But never fear, the season isn't even to the nasty part yet.  Next month is when things get really interesting.


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Just another spore in the wind.


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