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Cracka_X
Spiritual Dirt Worshipper



Registered: 01/25/03
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Loc: Swamp
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Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007
#5903223 - 07/26/06 09:39 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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-------------------- The best way to live is to be like water For water benefits all things and goes against none of them It provides for all people and even cleanses those places a man is loath to go In this way it is just like Tao ~Daodejing
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Jim


Registered: 04/07/04
Posts: 20,922
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: Cracka_X]
#5903238 - 07/26/06 09:42 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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we should just let nature do its thing.... or else the next epidemic will be even worse...
-------------------- Use the Fucking Reply To Feature You Lazy Pieces of Shit! afoaf said: Jim, if you were in my city, I would let you fuck my wife.
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makaveli8x8
Stranger

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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: Jim]
#5903387 - 07/26/06 10:18 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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yeah see these fucktards are really smart....they are going to cause this bird flu shit to mutate again or cause millions to get infected with it.....i don't understand all the fuss what 5 people among 60 billion got infected? maybe if them homo's weren't having sex with there sisters they wouldn't be geneticly suseptable to the fuckin shit anyways. why do we what bad genetics around anyways
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  We were sent to hell for eternity Ø h® We play on earth to pass the time Over-population the root of all Evil-brings the Elites Closer to the gates.
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makaveli8x8
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: makaveli8x8]
#5904079 - 07/27/06 12:58 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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oh i just realized this bird flu....its the first big sign of how much we are fucking the world up...the cause? pesticides, fertilizers, and GM foods...birds are highly sensitive to chemicals and therefore are going to be the first signs of our fuck ups...just like frogs....that are mutated as fuck all over the place which was big news "years" ago....shit is gunna turn real ugly real fast guys...i can feel it.
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  We were sent to hell for eternity Ø h® We play on earth to pass the time Over-population the root of all Evil-brings the Elites Closer to the gates.
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Hoss
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: makaveli8x8]
#5904143 - 07/27/06 01:34 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Don't you mean GE foods? Genetically Engineered.
And what he hell is wrong with GE crops?
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Papaver
Madmin Emeritus?

Registered: 06/01/02
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: makaveli8x8]
#5904176 - 07/27/06 01:52 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Over-populations is also a big player in the possible development of a global pandemic; not only in terms of the proximity of more humans, to more crowded live-stock, but also in terms of global population crowding.
Technology, such as modern industrial farming techniques with overcrowded pens and overused antibiotics, is also a problem, as is the case with faster global transportation routes for people.
I'm not a real "doom and gloomer," but you can't help but see that all the pieces are in place for a global pandemic that would make the spanish influenza epidemic of 1918 look like a walk in the park on a lovely spring day.
That being said, it might be nature taking its course and getting the human population back in balance. However, that being said, it's also part of human nature to try and prevent such a thing from happening. It's seems more and more like we're locked in a constant competition, a life or death struggle, with nature itself.
I wonder who will win?
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fastfred
Old Hand



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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: Papaver]
#5904511 - 07/27/06 06:51 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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> Don't you mean GE foods?
No, it's GM. Genetically Modified is the proper term.
-FF
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero


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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: Papaver]
#5904524 - 07/27/06 07:04 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
I'm not a real "doom and gloomer," but you can't help but see that all the pieces are in place for a global pandemic that would make the spanish influenza epidemic of 1918 look like a walk in the park on a lovely spring day.
I suspect the next pandemic will be manmade and will probably be the end of humans on earth. We are at the point where one can start to play around with microb genetics in a basement lab. Given the nature of some extremist groups, it is only a matter of time. It will be... interesting... to see if ethical medicine/science can stay ahead of the extremists. Probably not.
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
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fastfred
Old Hand



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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: Seuss]
#5904639 - 07/27/06 08:44 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Damn, you've got a nucleotide synthesizer in your basement lab? I'll have to invite myself over sometime to check it out.
Seriously though, those extremists aren't really all that smart. I don't think it's within their reach. Perhaps a small rogue nation like Syria, Iran, or N. Korea could do it.
It is pretty easy to synthesize some virus DNA or RNA and inject it into a host cell to get a unlimited supply if deadly virus. The thing is though that you'll have a hard time outdoing mother nature at her own game.
No virus is ever going to be able to wipeout everyone either. I think about the best you could do would be around a 70% infection rate and a 85% kill rate. If you succeeded in doing that you wouldn't be able to do much more since the population would be too sparse to support good transmission any more.
-FF
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Papaver
Madmin Emeritus?

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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: fastfred]
#5905214 - 07/27/06 12:43 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
fastfred said: No virus is ever going to be able to wipeout everyone either. I think about the best you could do would be around a 70% infection rate and a 85% kill rate. If you succeeded in doing that you wouldn't be able to do much more since the population would be too sparse to support good transmission any more.
Good point...
It's hard to say just how the big population market-correction will happen, or if it will happen at all, but I think we're destined for some kind of big shakeout of the monkey tree. There's just too many of us, and quite a few of us are not exactly nice, well-adjusted, people...
When the end does come, I just want to be like Charlton Heston in the film "Omega Man," and run around blasting mutants with my little submachine-gun by day, and drinking scotch and listening to jazz in my cool penthouse bachelor pad by night...
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero


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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: fastfred]
#5908138 - 07/28/06 06:39 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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> Seriously though, those extremists aren't really all that smart.
Big mistake. The yoyo's that strap bombs to their bodies aren't that smart, but they are the pawns in the game. Just because somebody lives in a cave or mud hut doesn't mean they aren't smart. Bin Laden is a well educated civil engineer, for example.
History is full of examples where we let our ego dictate what we thought other nations could or could not do. For example, Truman didn't believe the reports of the first USSR nuclear bomb detonation because he felt that the USSR was too backwards/stupid to figure out the technology.
> nucleotide synthesizer in your basement lab?
Nope, but I have seen this type of lab gear selling on auction sites fairly cheap.
> The thing is though that you'll have a hard time outdoing mother nature at her own game.
Insert human gene, say the one for myelin, into a common human pathogen's genetics. Serious problems occur when the immune system starts to recognize myelin as a pathogen. Outdoing mother nature on the road of destruction is not hard at all.
> No virus is ever going to be able to wipeout everyone either.
Gotta think outside of the box is all. Why attack humans when you can attack what humans eat, for example. A virus that infects 70% of all plankton with an 85% mortality rate will certainly end most life on earth, human life included.
Besides, the 85% mortality rate is low. A little imagination is all that is needed to end up with a nearly 100% mortality rate. You are correct on the isolation of many groups of people. However, using birds as a carrier ...
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
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fastfred
Old Hand



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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: Seuss]
#5909731 - 07/28/06 06:20 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Good points.
The US is hurtling headlong towards a major crisis. By radicalizing the anti-terrorism position you make the terrorist position that much more tenable to intelligent and non-radical people.
By continuing the WOD and eroding basic freedoms you increase the proportion of intelligent people who might seek to destroy you, undermine your authority, or just shake things up with a good old-fashioned plague.
It's approaching the point where many will feel it's their duty to take matters into their own hands and getting serious enough that extremely radical means might seem justified to rational people.
Not that any of this is new, but I think it's now approaching a tipping point. The Nazis hit the tipping point much more quickly and were destroyed for it. Our current governments are approaching it much more slowly and discreetly, but I don't think that it will necessarily lessen the the response given that more powerful tools are now available. Biowarfare is the modern equivalent of the nuclear bomb, and while people may agonize just as much over using it, increasing numbers of intellectuals are going to be driven to this extreme.
So I don't think you're going to find any of the cave dwellers causing much damage the danger is letting them highlight how radical we are, and thus incite revenge from other more civilized, but no less brutal, sources.
It's hard to outdo mother nature at any given task, but if you combine some of her dirtier tricks into one package you could come up with one whopper of a plague. For example, the polio virus has the rather unique trait of being able to survive and be fairly stable outside it's host for long periods. Other viri, like herpes, are good a sequestering themselves from the immune system. HIV is good at avoiding the immune system altogether and even preys on it itself.
My main point was that total destruction of humans is never going to happen. Plankton probably isn't a vulnerable target because many species of plankton exist. They also exist in enormous numbers and replicate rapidly. Even a 99% kill rate wouldn't do all that much to them. They would quickly repopulate from the remaining population. They might even repopulate quickly enough to avoid significant damage to the ecosystem. Plankton also wouldn't have all that much effect on terrestrial ecosystems except where they interact with oceanic ecosystems.
A plague on major food crops could be much more damaging. But there is a decent diversity in the food we eat, so even complete elimination of a crop species is only going to be a pain rather than result in complete destruction.
85% mortality rate isn't low. The deadliest viri only approach 85% fatality. I don't think you are going to be able to get too much above this without a major leap in virology. 70% infection rate is also well on the high side.
I think the best strategy would be to use a common host like wheat, dogs, rats, mice, or cattle. It would be tough to create a virus that could be transmitted from plants to humans, but from a mammal to humans is not a big leap. In a stable host population a virus might be able to initially infect 70% of say dogs. It could then percolate through the dog population, and through mutation it could probably end up infecting 98% of dogs. If the virus was slow acting on humans you might be able to have almost every dog as a constant source of virus production which would probably give you a 98-99% infection rate. With a 90% kill rate you could probably then kill almost 90% of the world population.
That's with an excellent strategy, an amazing virus, and a lot of luck. You're never going to wipe everyone out though because you aren't going to get 100% infection rate, or a 100% mortality rate.
It wouldn't be too hard to achieve the goal of disrupting authority and restarting human society though. I think it will probably happen at some point, but so is getting hit by an asteroid big enough to do the same thing. The real danger is if a super-plague hit us and then a massive asteroid soon after. That might wipe us out.
-FF
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Asante
Mage


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Posts: 86,795
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: Seuss]
#5909762 - 07/28/06 06:42 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Thats why we should get into space as fast as possible, and create biosphere projects on earth, and not just above ground.
And I can't *believe* how some people here buy into the propaganda that the extremists are a bunch of retards.
You need one knowledgable person, a small platoon of dedicated fighters to "liberate" the materials and equipment from a local university or hospital and to defend the compound where it is made. These fighters can then be sent on bogus "missions" all over the world, after having been covertly infected.
The Aum Shinrikyo sect had: -a working nervegas factory -a working poison gas factory -was successfully gathering materials for a Dirty Bomb -actually sent out field agents to aquire Ebola hemorrhagic fever from the Congo -was looking into acquiring nuclear weapons though theft.
they were caught after spreading Sarin nervegas in the Tokyo subways. These aren't hicks who can't find their flipflops in their trailer
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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makaveli8x8
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: Asante]
#5910634 - 07/28/06 11:32 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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is it plauseable that purhaps the global empires of our planet, usa, russia, china, ect....are testing biological geneticly engineered viruses as we speak??
lets say they are...because we know they are somewhere.
they can do all the lab tests with it they want but they won't know its true strength and effects unless they unleash it into the wild.
they want to test it for uses in war of course....or to disrupt a contrys economics ect with it.
so purhaps thats where HIV, mad cow desease, bird flu, ect....are coming from...there testing it in the wild on animals....once they know how it affects them they just have to modifiy it for humans...
also these countrys can easily get there hands on these specimens and look into there genetic code....but it would sorta be like with computer programs they need the source code to know exactly what they did...and nature would be changing it too, along with mutations along the way......
so what im saying is these attacks on nature are countrys showing off to one another as a added bonus...like see what i can do you don't wanna mess with us.
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  We were sent to hell for eternity Ø h® We play on earth to pass the time Over-population the root of all Evil-brings the Elites Closer to the gates.
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76degrees
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: makaveli8x8]
#5911798 - 07/29/06 11:40 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Does anybody else think this bird-flu is just a big scam by our politicians getting huge kickbacks and endorsements for pharmeceutical companies? Does anyone here actually know anyone who has contracted the bird-flu? I think it's a big fucking ruse.
-------------------- The world is changed. I feel it in the water. I feel it in the earth. I smell it in the air. Much that once was is lost, for none now live who remember it.
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Papaver
Madmin Emeritus?

Registered: 06/01/02
Posts: 26,880
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: 76degrees]
#5912130 - 07/29/06 01:51 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Bird flu is a 1/72 scale model in my basement...
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Asante
Mage


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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: 76degrees]
#5912538 - 07/29/06 04:36 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Does anybody else think this bird-flu is just a big scam by our politicians getting huge kickbacks and endorsements for pharmeceutical companies?
Ooooooooh no, you're gravely mistaking. H5N1 may blow over, but it is more likely that it won't. Then its the question how bad it will be, a hundred dead or a hundred million dead.
Check this article about Spanish Flu and in case you think nowadays it wouldn't be as bad: the same Spanish Flu now would be more lethal than it was in 1918. That influenza wiped out more people than a World War
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76degrees
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: Asante]
#5912567 - 07/29/06 04:52 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Funny, I never heard about that before. I'm really beginning to think I live in The Matrix.
Woah... Did you see that? I think it was the same cat.
Only we don't have the luxury of deja vu.
-------------------- The world is changed. I feel it in the water. I feel it in the earth. I smell it in the air. Much that once was is lost, for none now live who remember it.
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Papaver
Madmin Emeritus?

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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: Asante]
#5912783 - 07/29/06 06:18 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Be sure to watch NBC's fall schedule for an exiting array avian flu related programming! 
NBC : Proud as a Peacock! Poultry!
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PowerTripp
GfunkyWhiteBoy

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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: Papaver]
#5913640 - 07/30/06 12:30 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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I think it all depends on how strong the virus is because every summer its a new virus that has mutated like last year for example it was that west nile crap.. where did that go all of a sudden?? I havent heard anything about it since.. also just like small pox or w/e thats gone too so who knows that bird flu might be gone by next summer... its natures decision!
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makaveli8x8
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: PowerTripp]
#5913709 - 07/30/06 01:03 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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actually i read that west nile has for the first time hit our city recently so its still out and about
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  We were sent to hell for eternity Ø h® We play on earth to pass the time Over-population the root of all Evil-brings the Elites Closer to the gates.
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fastfred
Old Hand



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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: makaveli8x8]
#5913728 - 07/30/06 01:18 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Yeah, but people have now realized how weak west nile is and that's it's not worth worrying about. It was all media hype over a pussy ass disease.
Most people who get west nile don't even realize it. Others get mild flu-like symptoms, and only a very rare few actually have problems dealing with it.
H5N1 is a much nastier bug and is worth worrying about because it is a near certainty that it will mutate into a virus that will move amongst humans.
Smallpox is totally gone. Despite that our government recently wasted a bunch of money stockpiling vaccine against it. Of course they can't vaccinate anyone with it because it would be unethical to vaccinate against a disease that no longer exists.
It would have been far more effective to just pretend that we maintained a vaccine stockpile against it.
-FF
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Asante
Mage


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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: fastfred]
#5914324 - 07/30/06 07:25 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
H5N1 is a much nastier bug
H5N1 hasnt learned to spread among humans yest, but it already has learned to spread among SEVERAL animal species, most unusual. It is a pandemic among animals, one that doesnt seem to go away, and it now only takes a few mutations to become humanity's next killer flu. Ask very old people about the Spanish Flu, and they'll tell you how whole families were taken to the grave within a few days after the first cough.
Of the humans that did get bird flu, HALF DIED.
This will probably readily decrease due to mutation (dead people spread no virus so getting very sick rather than dying is favored) but the area where H5N1 becomes contagious to humans may well be wiped out.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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76degrees
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: Asante]
#5914508 - 07/30/06 09:30 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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I hear most of the people who get sick from bird-flu work in unsanitary conditions on poultry farms mostly in asia. I'm still very VERY skeptical that we should have anything to fear. If you didn't have a good head on your shoulders, you'd think you have to worry about getting killed every time you step out your door due to the crime rate, serial killers, etc. The Media and the government do a great job of over hyping everything. Plus, the pharmecuetical companies get a big kick out of it.
-------------------- The world is changed. I feel it in the water. I feel it in the earth. I smell it in the air. Much that once was is lost, for none now live who remember it.
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: 76degrees]
#5914596 - 07/30/06 10:32 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
hear most of the people who get sick from bird-flu work in unsanitary conditions on poultry farms mostly in asia.
People who work under unsanitary conditions often have far better immune systems than people who freak out when they smell a fart.
And its the H5N1 thats the killer, sanitary or unsanitary conditions makes little difference. The death rate in humans matches that seen in other species.
I read the story of a farmer who ran a chicken farm. He had something like 25.000 chickens in a huge barn. When after a weekend he returned, almost all of them were sick or dead. Thats quite chilling and sounds alot like what the 1918 Spanish Flu was like.
This isnt media hype. A few years ago when scientists saw what they were dealing with, they overnight and without media hype had the millions of poultry of the entire city of Hong Kong exterminated and disposed off, to try nip its spread in the bud. Thats that very same H5N1 thats now present in wild bird populations worldwide.
The wild birds at the moment are experiencing a pandemic which in comparison makes the Spanish Flu seem like the common cold.
The more virus particles you have in circulation, the sooner a certain beneficial mutation will occur, if it is in circulation for long enough. Right now there is A LOT of HIGHLY VIRULENT virus in circulation which is completely out of control. All we need is patient zero to contract two influenzas at once (H5N1 and a contagious human one) and two of these virii recombinating and we have ourselves a pandemic.
If you look at the past 150 years or so, the era in which medical science started paying close attention to epidemics, its clear that you are likely to experience several flu pandemics in your lifetime.
Another flu might beat H5N1 to it, but its likely H5N1 will one day become a human pathogen, if it doesnt die out or marginalizes in the animal population.
Infectious disease is one of the shortterm threats to life on earth.
Imagine a terrorist unleashing smallpox on our entirelty non-resistant world.
It would spread like, well, smallpox, and though it won't kill off mankind it will condemn millions to horrible disease and a life of being disfigured.
For the younger members or those who shun ducumentaries, these are the faces of smallpox:

Smallpox is now assumed to exist in testtubes in the freezers of many biolabs, which would be contagious if you sniffed from them, and you'd then be more contagious than someone with the flu. For this reason Smallpox is considered a major threat even though it has been eradicated from the world at large.
Half the people who ever lived died by Malaria, and in some african nations one in six people has HIV, which in Africa means you will die by AIDS. We need to fight infectious disease with the extreme aggression befitting a war against the worst enemy of mankind.
Its a small derailment off-topic, but has its use in the light of the very real biothreat Seuss mentioned.
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kotik
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Re: Bird flu vaccine may be ready in 2007 [Re: 76degrees]
#5914665 - 07/30/06 11:04 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
76degrees said: Does anybody else think this bird-flu is just a big scam by our politicians getting huge kickbacks and endorsements for pharmeceutical companies? Does anyone here actually know anyone who has contracted the bird-flu? I think it's a big fucking ruse.
interesting fact, same government-funded company that helped Tim Leary with his LSD research was the same lab that makes Tamiflu: LaRouche.
-------------------- No statements made in any post or message by myself should be construed to mean that I am now, or have ever been, participating in or considering participation in any activities in violation of any local, state, or federal laws. All posts are works of fiction.
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