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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact...
    #5886264 - 07/22/06 12:20 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/07/21/MIDEAST.TMP

if this is true..then the shelomi incident was very likely faked...

Quote:

07-21) 04:00 PDT Jerusalem -- Israel's military response by air, land and sea to what it considered a provocation last week by Hezbollah militants is unfolding according to a plan finalized more than a year ago.

In the years since Israel ended its military occupation of southern Lebanon, it watched warily as Hezbollah built up its military presence in the region. When Hezbollah militants kidnapped two Israeli soldiers last week, the Israeli military was ready to react almost instantly.

"Of all of Israel's wars since 1948, this was the one for which Israel was most prepared," said Gerald Steinberg, professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University. "In a sense, the preparation began in May 2000, immediately after the Israeli withdrawal, when it became clear the international community was not going to prevent Hezbollah from stockpiling missiles and attacking Israel. By 2004, the military campaign scheduled to last about three weeks that we're seeing now had already been blocked out and, in the last year or two, it's been simulated and rehearsed across the board."

More than a year ago, a senior Israeli army officer began giving PowerPoint presentations, on an off-the-record basis, to U.S. and other diplomats, journalists and think tanks, setting out the plan for the current operation in revealing detail. Under the ground rules of the briefings, the officer could not be identified.

In his talks, the officer described a three-week campaign: The first week concentrated on destroying Hezbollah's heavier long-range missiles, bombing its command-and-control centers, and disrupting transportation and communication arteries. In the second week, the focus shifted to attacks on individual sites of rocket launchers or weapons stores. In the third week, ground forces in large numbers would be introduced, but only in order to knock out targets discovered during reconnaissance missions as the campaign unfolded. There was no plan, according to this scenario, to reoccupy southern Lebanon on a long-term basis.

Israeli officials say their pinpoint commando raids should not be confused with a ground invasion. Nor, they say, do they herald another occupation of southern Lebanon, which Israel maintained from 1982 to 2000 -- in order, it said, to thwart Hezbollah attacks on Israel. Planners anticipated the likelihood of civilian deaths on both sides. Israel says Hezbollah intentionally bases some of its operations in residential areas. And Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has bragged publicly that the group's arsenal included rockets capable of bombing Haifa, as occurred last week.

Like all plans, the one now unfolding also has been shaped by changing circumstances, said Eran Lerman, a former colonel in Israeli military intelligence who is now director of the Jerusalem office of the American Jewish Committee.

"There are two radical views of how to deal with this challenge, a serious professional debate within the military community over which way to go," said Lerman. "One is the air power school of thought, the other is the land-borne option. They create different dynamics and different timetables. The crucial factor is that the air force concept is very methodical and almost by definition is slower to get results. A ground invasion that sweeps Hezbollah in front of you is quicker, but at a much higher cost in human life and requiring the creation of a presence on the ground."

The advance scenario is now in its second week, and its success or failure is still unfolding. Whether Israel's aerial strikes will be enough to achieve the threefold aim of the campaign -- to remove the Hezbollah military threat; to evict Hezbollah from the border area, allowing the deployment of Lebanese government troops; and to ensure the safe return of the two Israeli soldiers abducted last week -- remains an open question. Israelis are opposed to the thought of reoccupying Lebanon.

"I have the feeling that the end is not clear here. I have no idea how this movie is going to end," said Daniel Ben-Simon, a military analyst for the daily Haaretz newspaper.

Thursday's clashes in southern Lebanon occurred near an outpost abandoned more than six years ago by the retreating Israeli army. The place was identified using satellite photographs of a Hezbollah bunker, but only from the ground was Israel able to discover that it served as the entrance to a previously unknown underground network of caves and bunkers stuffed with missiles aimed at northern Israel, said Israeli army spokesman Miri Regev.

"We knew about the network, but it was fully revealed (Wednesday) by the ground operation of our forces," said Regev. "This is one of the purposes of the pinpoint ground operations -- to locate and try to destroy the terrorist infrastructure from where they can fire at Israeli citizens."

Israeli military officials say as much as 50 percent of Hezbollah's missile capability has been destroyed, mainly by aerial attacks on targets identified from intelligence reports. But missiles continue to be fired at towns and cities across northern Israel.

"We were not surprised that the firing has continued," said Tzachi Hanegbi, chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. "Hezbollah separated its leadership command-and-control system from its field organization. It created a network of tiny cells in each village that had no operational mission except to wait for the moment when they should activate the Katyusha rocket launchers hidden in local houses, using coordinates programmed long ago to hit Nahariya or Kiryat Shemona, or the kibbutzim and villages."

"From the start of this operation, we have also been active on the ground across the width of Lebanon," said Brig. Gen. Ron Friedman, head of Northern Command headquarters. "These missions are designed to support our current actions. Unfortunately, one of the many missions which we have carried out in recent days met with slightly fiercer resistance."

Israel didn't need sophisticated intelligence to discover the huge buildup of Iranian weapons supplies to Hezbollah by way of Syria, because Hezbollah's patrons boasted about it openly in the pages of the Arabic press. As recently as June 16, less than four weeks before the Hezbollah border raid that sparked the current crisis, the Syrian defense minister publicly announced the extension of existing agreements allowing the passage of trucks shipping Iranian weapons into Lebanon.

But to destroy them, Israel needed to map the location of each missile.

"We need a lot of patience," said Hanegbi. "The (Israeli Defense Forces) action at the moment is incapable of finding the very last Katyusha, or the last rocket launcher primed for use hidden inside a house in some village."

Moshe Marzuk, a former head of the Lebanon desk for Israeli Military Intelligence who now is a researcher at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya, said Israel had learned from past conflicts in Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza -- as well as the recent U.S. experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq -- that a traditional military campaign would be countereffective.

"A big invasion is not suitable here," said Marzuk. "We are not fighting an army, but guerrillas. It would be a mistake to enter and expose ourselves to fighters who will hide, fire off a missile and run away. If we are to be on the ground at all, we need to use commandos and special forces."
Since fighting started

-- Israeli air strikes on Lebanon have hit more than 1,255 targets, including 200 rocket-launching sites.

-- Hezbollah launched more than 900 rockets and missiles into northern Israel.

-- At least 317 Lebanese have been killed, including 20 soldiers and three Hezbollah guerrillas. Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora says 1,100 have been wounded; the police put the number at 657.

-- 31 Israelis have been killed, among them 16 soldiers, according to Israeli authorities. At least nine soldiers and 344 civilians have been wounded.

-- Foreign deaths include eight Canadians, two Kuwaiti nationals, one Iraqi, one Sri Lankan and one Jordanian.




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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

Edited by Annapurna1 (07/22/06 12:49 AM)

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OfflineBasilides
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Re: SF chronicle ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #5886296 - 07/22/06 12:34 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

Well, invading a nation, killing 400 people and displacing a quarter of the country does seem a little excessive for two snatched soldiers


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"Have you found the beginning, then, that you are looking for the end? You see, the end will be where the beginning is. Congratulations to the one who stands at the beginning: that one will know the end and will not taste death."

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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: SF chronicle ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: Basilides]
    #5886318 - 07/22/06 12:48 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

and even more excessive for zero snatched soldiers...the hizbullah raid on shelomi prolly has about as much basis in reality as the 1939 polish raid on the german gleiwitz radio station...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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OfflineBasilides
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Re: SF chronicle ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #5886380 - 07/22/06 01:23 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

I don't think so. If that was true, Hezbollah would have already denied kidnapping the soldiers. They acknowledged that they had them. Not to mention the soldiers' families are speaking publically and condemning the Israeli offensive. I think you're wrong.


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"Have you found the beginning, then, that you are looking for the end? You see, the end will be where the beginning is. Congratulations to the one who stands at the beginning: that one will know the end and will not taste death."

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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: SF chronicle ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #5887241 - 07/22/06 11:20 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Annapurna1 said:
and even more excessive for zero snatched soldiers...the hizbullah raid on shelomi prolly has about as much basis in reality as the 1939 polish raid on the german gleiwitz radio station...




Do you have any proof the soldiers weren't kidnapped or is this speculation like usual?

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OfflineRosettaStoned
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #5887475 - 07/22/06 12:52 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)

I have no doubt this was planned a year in advance. No well respected military does anything without plenty of advance planning. But just because something is planned, does not mean it is going to be put into action. They probably just needed an excuse to execute the plans and the soldiers kidnapped from lebanon were a perfect rallying point.


--------------------
"Government big enough to provide you with all you need is also big enough to take everything you have." ~ Thomas Jefferson

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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: SF chronicle ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: Redstorm]
    #5887624 - 07/22/06 01:46 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

I don't think so. If that was true, Hezbollah would have already denied kidnapping the soldiers. They acknowledged that they had them. Not to mention the soldiers' families are speaking publically and condemning the Israeli offensive. I think you're wrong.




Quote:

Do you have any proof the soldiers weren't kidnapped or is this speculation like usual?




i might very well have been wrong to claim that there were zero "snatched" soldiers...but OTOH..it would also be extremely foolish to take any stories from the neocon media regarding shelomi.. or "what hizbulla said".. at face value...there might well have been a skirmish at shelomi..and at gleiwitz too...and IMAO..whatever incident at shelomi has been misrepresented as a valid pretense to start a war..as was the case at gleiwitz...

much hinges on whether or not it is possible to argue that the two israeli soldiers were lawfully apprehended (as opposed to kidnapped)..and the details of the shelomi incident might never become clear enough to resolve this...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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OfflineThe_Red_Crayon
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: RosettaStoned]
    #5887801 - 07/22/06 02:48 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)

The soldiers were kidnapped in Lebanon, first of all the Israeli soldiers were "actually" in Lebanon. Hezbollah conducted a raid and killed 8 soldiers and kidnapped one. This was intended to open up a secondary front on Israel, Both sides have been planning action like this for years. Hezbollah has been massing their forces on the Lebanese borer the past 7 and 8 months, which were being advised by Iranian Revolutionary Guards advisors. Equipping the non-state entities with updated war machinery and things that can operate excellent in assymetrical warfare.

If Isreal decides to occupy southern Lebanon, it has to create another buffer zone, or Katsuyashas will rain down on Israel as long as they can exist, (And they will.) The insurgents just dont need to lose. This is not the same kind of conflict.

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
    #5887849 - 07/22/06 03:15 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

The_Red_Crayon said:
The soldiers were kidnapped in Lebanon, first of all the Israeli soldiers were "actually" in Lebanon.




Oh really. Let's have a link to back that up

Quote:


Hezbollah conducted a raid and killed 8 soldiers and kidnapped one.




Well, actually it seems to have been two, do you even try?
Quote:



This was intended to open up a secondary front on Israel, Both sides have been planning action like this for years. Hezbollah has been massing their forces on the Lebanese borer the past 7 and 8 months, which were being advised by Iranian Revolutionary Guards advisors. Equipping the non-state entities with updated war machinery and things that can operate excellent in assymetrical warfare.

If Isreal decides to occupy southern Lebanon, it has to create another buffer zone, or Katsuyashas will rain down on Israel as long as they can exist, (And they will.) The insurgents just dont need to lose. This is not the same kind of conflict.




Israel planning for the possibility that murderous thugs will continue to be murderous thugs is a little but different from murderous thugs planning a murder and kidnapping.


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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: zappaisgod]
    #5888221 - 07/22/06 05:36 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)

Go Jews go!

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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: zappaisgod]
    #5888250 - 07/22/06 05:42 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)

British police recently questioned a group of Iranian tourists after they were seen covertly shooting video film of Jewish community buildings in London, Newsweek magazine reported.

Newsweek said in its Monday's edition that the Iranian "tourists" were detained and questioned by British police in recent weeks, but the magazine did not identify which Jewish buildings had been filmed and provided few other details.

The report said British police have warned the country's Jewish community of a threat of imminent terrorist attacks.

The British warning comes as some US Department of State officials mull issuing an official warning to the US travellers to Britain, according to the magazine.

"US officials say no comparable intelligence has recently surfaced about threats to Jewish targets in America," Newsweek said.

"British security officers say that while they can't predict specific attacks, urgent measures are needed to protect potential targets such as synagogues and community centers," the report said.

It added that the warning to British Jewish centers comes as some US officials say recent intelligence indicates backsliding in official Iranian attitudes toward Islamic terrorism and al-Qaeda.

British police have been on a heightened anti-terrorist alert since the September 11, 2001, attacks against New York and Washington.

London has been America's chief ally in the White House's self-professed war on terror, including supporting the US-led war in Iraq.

The Newsweek report comes after British police arrested a Pakistani man under anti-terrorism laws last week amid fears of a plot to carry out a bombing in London, according to the Daily Mirror newspaper.

The paper quoted a senior source in London's Scotland Yard police department as saying: "We made the arrest because of fears that a plot by al-Qaeda to launch a terrorist attack in Britain was reaching the advanced planning stage. We think a bombing was being planned to take place in London."


http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=18640&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

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Invisiblebuckwheat
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #5888500 - 07/22/06 06:33 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)


Edited by buckwheat (07/22/06 06:37 PM)

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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: buckwheat]
    #5888635 - 07/22/06 07:26 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:


With the exception of the Palestinians, the Arab world appears to be united in blaming Iran and Syria for the fighting in Lebanon. Until last week, Arab political analysts and government officials were reluctant to criticize Hizbullah in public. But now that Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and his top aides are in hiding, an anti-Hizbullah coalition is emerging not only in Lebanon, but in several other Arab countries as well.





http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1150886029284&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull


Quote:


Quran
The Children of Israel
[17:104] And we said to the Children of Israel afterwards, “ scatter and live all over the world…and when the end of the world is near we will gather you again into the Promised Land”.




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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: Luddite]
    #5888649 - 07/22/06 07:33 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)


Edited by Luddite (07/22/06 07:37 PM)

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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #5897210 - 07/25/06 05:53 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

the case for the gleiwitz scenario ..

http://www.antiwar.com/frank/?articleid=9401


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: RosettaStoned]
    #5897393 - 07/25/06 08:15 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

RosettaStoned said:
They probably just needed an excuse to execute the plans and the soldiers kidnapped from lebanon were a perfect rallying point.




"soldiers kidnapped from lebanon"

do you have a link???????


I thought Hezbollah crossed from Lebanon into Israel on July 12, killing eight Israeli soldiers and kidnapping two others.....


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: lonestar2004]
    #5897411 - 07/25/06 08:24 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

Holy Shit!

This must be the first time in history, that a country has strategic military plans in place before implementation!!!


Who has ever heard of a contingency plan, anyway????


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Edited by SirTripAlot (07/25/06 08:24 AM)

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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: lonestar2004]
    #5897893 - 07/25/06 11:32 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

I thought Hezbollah crossed from Lebanon into Israel on July 12, killing eight Israeli soldiers and kidnapping two others.....




not according to AP and other media quoted in my link above ..

Quote:

The Associated Press departed from the official version as well. "The militant group Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers during clashes Wednesday across the border in southern Lebanon, prompting a swift reaction from Israel, which sent ground forces into its neighbor to look for them," reported Joseph Panossian for AP on July 12. "The forces were trying to keep the soldiers' captors from moving them deeper into Lebanon, Israeli government officials said on condition of anonymity."




if thats so..then the lebanon blitz is about as much a "contingency plan" as sharons' ambitions to bomb iran...


--------------------


"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

Edited by Annapurna1 (07/25/06 11:47 AM)

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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #5897944 - 07/25/06 11:48 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

BEIRUT, July 13 -- The Lebanese Shiite Muslim group Hezbollah infiltrated the Israeli border Wednesday in a brazen raid, capturing two Israeli soldiers,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/12/AR2006071200262.html

"Last week, members of Hezbollah infiltrated Israeli sovereign territory,"
http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2006/07/17/a_question_for_the_world_community/

JERUSALEM (CNN) -- The Israeli Cabinet authorized "severe and harsh" retaliation on Lebanon after Hezbollah guerillas kidnapped two soldiers and killed three others in a cross-border raid Wednesday.

It is the second time in three weeks that an Israeli soldier has been abducted.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/12/mideast/

I would love to see a few links that the Jews infiltrated Lebanon first!


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: SFCHRON ..lebanon invasion planned a year before the fact... [Re: lonestar2004]
    #5897990 - 07/25/06 12:02 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)



--------------------


"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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