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trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Welcome to The Peak
#5851840 - 07/12/06 07:09 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Last year (2005) I became convinced that we had reached the "peak" event of Peak Oil. The peak itself will resemble a plateau in world oil production - not actually a sharp peak with fast drop-off. The plateau could last anywhere from a couple years to a decade, though I expect it will fall somewhere in between (we should begine the down slope by around 2010).
Last year most of the oil majors posted declines in their daily production numbers, and they have done the same this year. OPEC has stated earlier this year that they will be "voluntarily" reducing their output...quite the opposite from last year when they promised - repeatedly - to raise production in order to soften a tight oil market. They never did...and now they are "voluntarily" (give me a break...) reducing their output.
So this is it, folks! The big event! Enjoy it while it lasts
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: Welcome to The Peak [Re: trendal]
#5851847 - 07/12/06 07:11 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Global oil output at a peak, ‘set to fall’
SYDNEY: World oil production is at its peak and set to fall 32% by 2020 as discoveries wane, said Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a former executive of Iran’s state oil company.
World production is now about 81mn bpd, about 3.8mn less than the International Energy Agency’s estimate for the first quarter, Bakhtiari, who publishes papers and lectures on the theory that global oil production is on the verge of imminent decline, said yesterday in Sydney.
Oil prices that have risen almost threefold in three years to an all-time high of $75.78 a barrel in New York on July 7 haven’t reduced demand significantly, Bakhtiari said, predicting further gains beyond $100.
“We don’t know how far the price has to go for demand to begin to be dented; the normal economics don’t work any more,’’ Bakhtiari said at a lecture in Sydney, hosted by the Financial Services Institute of Australasia. “Is it $125, is it $150? I don’t know. I don’t think it can go much higher than $300.’’
So-called “peak oil’’ theorists argue that world oil supplies are running out faster than some analysts have estimated. Matthew Simmons, chairman of energy investment bank Simmons & Co, wrote in his book Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy that output from Saudi fields is about to decline because water injection has damaged reservoirs.
“I can see the peak very easily,’’ Bakhtiari said. “In the short-term future production can only decline. It will not go up again because there’s faster depletion in all these fields than new fields coming on stream.’’
Bakhtiari, a guest in Australia of the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, will today give evidence to a Senate inquiry into Australia’s future oil supplies. He is a former senior expert at the corporate planning department of National Iranian Oil Co, which he left in 2005, according to his website. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has a maximum production capacity of 31mn bpd, while non-Opec countries have a maximum of 50mn, Bakhtiari said. “Neither of these two entities can today go above these capacity figures,’’ he said. Saudi Arabia, which produces about 9mn bpd, is “struggling’’ to keep up production, particularly at the Ghawar field, the world’s largest, Bakhtiari said.
Kuwait’s Burgan field, Mexico’s Cantarell field and the North Sea fields are already in decline, he said. Russia’s production probably already peaked in September 2004, he said. Oil producers, including Russia, are overstating their output, said Bakhtiari.
The last “super-giant’’ oil field to be found was seven years ago in Kazakhstan, Bakhtiari said. The start of production at the Kashagan field has been further delayed until 2009 or 2010, Interfax said on July 4, citing Kazakh Energy Minister Baktykozha Izmukhambetov.
The world’s natural gas production will probably peak a few years later, in 2008 or 2009, Bakhtiari said. That peak will trigger an “enormous’’ demand for liquefied natural gas, the price of which may rise as much as $30 or $40 per million British Thermal Units, he said.
Natural gas for August delivery was at $5.581 per million British thermal units in after-hours trading yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Bakhtiari’s view differs to that of the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which said last month that output will meet demand until 2030.
Total SA, Europe’s third-largest oil company, expects global oil production to peak as soon as 2020 as demand for the fuel outstrips the capacity to boost output, chief executive officer Thierry Desmarest said June 7.
BP Plc, Europe’s largest oil company, doesn’t believe there is a shortage of oil resources, Mark Finley, head of energy analysis at the company, said last month.
Proven oil reserves have been consistently rising over the last four decades and in the last 25 years production has been “more than offset’’ by additions to reserves, he said June 17 in Sydney.
ExxonMobil Corp, the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, published advertisements in Australian newspapers in May refuting the “peak oil’’ concept.
“Oil is a finite resource, but because it is so incredibly large, a peak will not occur this year, next year or for decades to come,’’ it said. – Bloomberg
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/ar...48&parent_id=28
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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Liquidkick
H2O
Registered: 05/03/02
Posts: 2,635
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Re: Welcome to The Peak [Re: trendal]
#5851884 - 07/12/06 07:21 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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sigh. So where the flex fuel/hydrogen cars at?
My wallet hurts.
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trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: Welcome to The Peak [Re: Liquidkick]
#5851895 - 07/12/06 07:24 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Still decades away, I'm afraid
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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nickpdx
Registered: 11/15/04
Posts: 154
Last seen: 12 years, 1 month
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Re: Welcome to The Peak [Re: Liquidkick]
#5852118 - 07/12/06 07:59 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Liquidkick said: sigh. So where the flex fuel/hydrogen cars at?
My wallet hurts.
Neither ethanol nor hydrogen will probably do anything to help wean us off of oil. Ethanol barely returns more energy (or emits less CO2) than is put into it to make it, and so far hydrogen is experiencing the same dilemma.
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DNKYD
Turtle!

Registered: 09/23/04
Posts: 12,326
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Re: Welcome to The Peak [Re: trendal]
#5852140 - 07/12/06 08:05 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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By the end of this year I will be running on WVO. Eventually I will be opening a bio-diesel manufacturing and distributing company and reap millions...... MIIIIIIILLIONS!!!!!
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