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DoctorJ


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Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival."
#5842780 - 07/10/06 02:56 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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http://edition.cnn.com/2006/TECH/space/06/14/humansurvival.hawking.ap/
HONG KONG, China (AP) -- The survival of the human race depends on its ability to find new homes elsewhere in the universe because there's an increasing risk that a disaster will destroy Earth, world-renowned physicist Stephen Hawking said.
Humans could have a permanent base on the moon in 20 years and a colony on Mars in the next 40 years, the British scientist told a news conference.
"We won't find anywhere as nice as Earth unless we go to another star system," added Hawking, who came to Hong Kong to a rock star's welcome Monday. Tickets for his lecture Thursday were sold out.
Hawking said that if humans can avoid killing themselves in the next 100 years, they should have space settlements that can continue without support from Earth.
"It is important for the human race to spread out into space for the survival of the species," Hawking said. "Life on Earth is at the ever-increasing risk of being wiped out by a disaster, such as sudden global warming, nuclear war, a genetically engineered virus or other dangers we have not yet thought of."
The 64-year-old scientist -- author of the global best-seller "A Brief History of Time" -- uses a wheelchair and communicates with the help of a computer because he suffers from a neurological disorder called amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or ALS.
One of the best-known theoretical physicists of his generation, Hawking has done groundbreaking research on black holes and the origins of the universe, proposing that space and time have no beginning and no end.
However, Alan Guth, a physics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said Hawking's latest observations were something of a departure from his usual research and more applicable to survival over the long-term.
"It is a new area for him to look at," Guth said. "If he's talking about the next 100 years and beyond, it does make sense to think about space as the ultimate lifeboat."
But, he added, "I don't see the likely possibility within the next 50 years of science technology making it easier to survive on Mars and on the moon than it would be to survive on earth."
"I would still think that an underground base, for example in Antarctica, would be easier to build than building on the moon," Guth said.
Joshua Winn, an astrophysicist at MIT, agreed. "The prospect of colonizing other planets is very far off, you must realize," he said.
Hawking's "work has been highly theoretical physics, not in astrophysics or global politics or anything like that," Winn added. "He is certainly stepping outside his research domain."
Hawking's comments Tuesday were reminiscent of the work of American astrophysicist Carl Sagan, who was a believer in the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence.
Sagan, a Cornell University professor and NASA-decorated scientist who died in 1996, noted that organic molecules, the kind that life on Earth is dependent on, appear to be almost everywhere in the solar system.
Sagan played a leading role in the U.S. space program, helping design robotic missions and contributing to the Mariner, Viking, Voyager and Galileo expeditions.
But his work also focused on the search for habitable worlds and intelligent life beyond the solar system, as well as theories about life's origins, ideas popularized in his best-selling 1985 novel, "Contact," which was made into a film starring Jodie Foster.
At Tuesday's news conference, Hawking said he too was venturing into the world of fiction. He plans to team up with his daughter, 35-year-old journalist and novelist Lucy Hawking, to write a children's book about the universe aimed at the same age group as the Harry Potter books.
"It is a story for children, which explains the wonders of the universe," said Lucy Hawking. They did not provide further details.
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Asante
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: DoctorJ]
#5847952 - 07/11/06 06:11 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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And he's right! We should strive towards independent colonies on the short term and in the mean time collect genetic specimens of the entire planetary genome. Let's map it all and keep specimens! A species is not entirely extinct if we have their genes mapped and on ice.
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trendal
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: DoctorJ]
#5848416 - 07/11/06 07:50 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: DoctorJ]
#5850419 - 07/12/06 10:41 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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How can we expect to survive elsewhere if we're destroying the most hospitable planet we've ever known?
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trendal
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: Silversoul]
#5850629 - 07/12/06 12:08 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Define "destroying the planet", please.
Increasingly I am of the mind that nothing we do to this planet is in any way "unnatural" or even abnormal.
We are not "destroying" the planet....we are changing the planet.
And that - change - is something that Life has done to this planet from the very moment Life began! In fact the changes we humans have caused on this planet pale in comparrison to some of the changes other forms of Life have caused. For instance we may be slightly altering the atmosphere....but 4 billion years ago some little microbes actually changed the entire chemistry of the atmosphere (like breathing oxygen? thank them!).
We will reap this planet bare in our quest for growth. Many other species will go extinct. Much of what is "nature" right now will become "technology". But none of that matters one bit...
Because if we weren't doing it....some other species would.
It is the nature of Life to cause change.
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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DoctorJ


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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: Asante]
#5851185 - 07/12/06 03:23 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Wiccan_Seeker said: And he's right! We should strive towards independent colonies on the short term and in the mean time collect genetic specimens of the entire planetary genome. Let's map it all and keep specimens! A species is not entirely extinct if we have their genes mapped and on ice.
yeah, I've basically been saying this same thing for like 10 years, but I guess it takes a name like Stephen Hawkings to get anyone to listen.
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DoctorJ


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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: Silversoul]
#5851188 - 07/12/06 03:24 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Silversoul said: How can we expect to survive elsewhere if we're destroying the most hospitable planet we've ever known?
good point, but a meteor could easily make this planet quite unhospitable, as it did for the dinosaurs several million years ago. And i belive that meteors are natural phenomena.
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Newbie
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: trendal]
#5851193 - 07/12/06 03:25 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Yeah we're just using up its resources, not necessarily destroying it. Eventually we will have to colonize something else. Having humans on more than one planet would make for some interesting/expensive family reunions.
That being said, it kind of reminds me of a quote from the hitchiker's guide. We've only been as far away from people as Earth lets us go. Having friends and family on different planets would give you a new level of "homesick" if you know what I mean. You're friend's not 500 miles away, he's billions away on a different planet.
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: trendal]
#5851679 - 07/12/06 06:14 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
trendal said: Define "destroying the planet", please.
Increasingly I am of the mind that nothing we do to this planet is in any way "unnatural" or even abnormal.
We are not "destroying" the planet....we are changing the planet.
And that - change - is something that Life has done to this planet from the very moment Life began! In fact the changes we humans have caused on this planet pale in comparrison to some of the changes other forms of Life have caused. For instance we may be slightly altering the atmosphere....but 4 billion years ago some little microbes actually changed the entire chemistry of the atmosphere (like breathing oxygen? thank them!).
We will reap this planet bare in our quest for growth. Many other species will go extinct. Much of what is "nature" right now will become "technology". But none of that matters one bit...
Because if we weren't doing it....some other species would.
It is the nature of Life to cause change.
A mere technicality. By "destroy," I mean "render uninhabitable by us." My point is that we cannot hope to make a sustainable environment out in space until we can make our home planet sustainable as well.
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trendal
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: Silversoul]
#5851710 - 07/12/06 06:22 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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This is entirely hypothetical....
But what if "sustainability" isn't possible without entirely removing growth?
I find it hard to believe that, if we Humans were to live "sustainably" on this planet...that we could ever create enough technology to reach any other planet.
For instance there is no currently known way to reach even the Moon "sustainably" - such an act requires far more energy than the Earth can provide sustainably. And that's just for one Moon mission...
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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DoctorJ


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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: Silversoul]
#5852544 - 07/12/06 09:20 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Silversoul said:
Quote:
trendal said: Define "destroying the planet", please.
Increasingly I am of the mind that nothing we do to this planet is in any way "unnatural" or even abnormal.
We are not "destroying" the planet....we are changing the planet.
And that - change - is something that Life has done to this planet from the very moment Life began! In fact the changes we humans have caused on this planet pale in comparrison to some of the changes other forms of Life have caused. For instance we may be slightly altering the atmosphere....but 4 billion years ago some little microbes actually changed the entire chemistry of the atmosphere (like breathing oxygen? thank them!).
We will reap this planet bare in our quest for growth. Many other species will go extinct. Much of what is "nature" right now will become "technology". But none of that matters one bit...
Because if we weren't doing it....some other species would.
It is the nature of Life to cause change.
A mere technicality. By "destroy," I mean "render uninhabitable by us." My point is that we cannot hope to make a sustainable environment out in space until we can make our home planet sustainable as well.
that doesnt follow.
Just because we fucked up earth doesn't mean we'll fuck up other planets. We can actually learn from the mistakes we've made here to ensure that they don't happen elsewhere.
Earth is like a tricycle. We have to graduate to a bike. Just because we fucked up our tricycle doesn't mean we are going to fuck up a bike once we get it. We will be older and wiser, because of our experience with the tricycle. This really is very elementary.
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: trendal]
#5853327 - 07/13/06 12:00 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
trendal said: This is entirely hypothetical....
But what if "sustainability" isn't possible without entirely removing growth?
I find it hard to believe that, if we Humans were to live "sustainably" on this planet...that we could ever create enough technology to reach any other planet.
For instance there is no currently known way to reach even the Moon "sustainably" - such an act requires far more energy than the Earth can provide sustainably. And that's just for one Moon mission...
If we can't reach other planets sustainably, then I dare say we don't deserve to live anywhere else.
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DoctorJ


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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: Silversoul]
#5854004 - 07/13/06 09:02 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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have you read 'the case for mars' yet?
It basically compares the exploration of mars to the Lewis and Clark expedition.
Instead of taking everything with us (which as you stated would be impossible), we're supposed to 'live off the land'.
First, explore mars with probes, find water, then send a few robots with a nuclear power source to establish a base there. Then, send humans.
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: DoctorJ]
#5854009 - 07/13/06 09:05 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Hey, if we can pull it off, I'm all for it. But I don't wish to see mankind use it as a cop-out for continuing to make our own planet uninhabitable. I think the best place to practice keeping the balance of life is on a planet that already supports life.
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DoctorJ


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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: Silversoul]
#5854015 - 07/13/06 09:10 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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well, just because I advocate going into space, doesn't mean I advocate continued irresponsibility towards the environment.
obviously, we need to learn to interact in a more positive way with our ecosystem.
but, this process of harmonizing with our surroundings may take many thousands of years and may even span several planets. you have to look at the big picture, here.
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: Silversoul]
#5855644 - 07/13/06 06:59 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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A billion or so years ago earth was hostile to life. Life overcame that. Now Life has become too big for our planet. It will seek out other planets and places hostile to life, overcome that, and spread further.
Its not just us humans being selfish. There will be trees, flowers, fishes, rabbits and horses on Mars. Earthworms will crawl through the soil of our biospheres on Titan and Ganymede. Crickets will chirp in the grass of our floating cities in the atmosphere of Neptune. Further, further..
It can be so beautiful, if we just made up our minds NOW and worked towards the first colony, so that later on the two independent planets can cooperate to colonize a third, and the three can cooperate to colonize a fourth and fifth.
Beyond Jupiter lies minable Deuterium and Helium-3, thermonuclear fuel for dreams so great we don't dare dream them today. There are trillions of comets which can be mined and processed into colonies and spaceships, millions of them, all just in our solar system.
It can be so beautiful.. if we get our head out of our asses and assure the future for Life *now*
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: Asante]
#5856854 - 07/14/06 02:30 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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I think, before we can do any of that, we need to learn what "ENERGY EFFICIENCY" means. In the US alone.. i believe its 84%waist energy. That leaves like 15% of energy actually being used to do the task. Once we cut that down to a reasonable number (there's always going to be some waist heat) then we can look to the stars and begin plans for colonies.
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: Asante]
#5860571 - 07/15/06 01:45 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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wow, I can tell you really see my perspective on this 
Its true, there are places with no life that can have life with a little goading from sentient beings such as ourselves.
Lots of people hold this view of space exploration as if mannkind is becoming some kind of virus that has to latch on to new hosts to survive, because we keep killing the host we are on.
Thats bullshit. We aren't spreading death by coloniozing other planets, we are spreading LIFE.
I mean, thats the purpose I had in mind, anyway.
We have a vacant planet right next door that may be of some use to not just humans, but all the creatures that dwell on earth. I seriously doubt its a coincidence that God put that planet right there.
Its not like we are usurpers stealing other planets from some other race, like the Euros stole America from the natives. This isn't so much about conquest and spreading our evil ways as it is about spreading everything thats good about Earth to other places in space.
I for one have always been an optimist about space travel. When Discovery blew up I was sad the whole weekend over it. I mean it really bummed me out. Those people were fuckin heroes, man. They sacrificed their lives for the advancement of a very important science that was only in its infancy.
I don't know where all this pessimism is coming from about space travel. It seems to me a very promising thing.
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: DoctorJ]
#5861995 - 07/15/06 02:11 PM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
DoctorJ said: I don't know where all this pessimism is coming from about space travel. It seems to me a very promising thing.
It's not that I think space travel is necessarily a bad idea. But I am pessimistic towards those who put their faith in it as our one hope for the future. I sense a sort of defeatism in this kind of thinking. It's like, "Well, we failed to make this sustainability thing work here on earth, so let's try it somewhere else." I guess part of it is my attachment to earth. This is absolutely my favorite planet ever, and I can't imagine ever leaving it behind. And I'm concerned by this defeatism about earth, because I think we have a better chance of making this planet more sustainable than creating sustainability in places where life cannot yet exist. I'm skeptical of our ability to colonize other parts of space en masse when we have yet to send a single human being out any further than the moon. And I fear that if we put all our eggs in that basket, we will do so at our own peril, as we will be neglecting the dangerous conditions we are creating here on earth.
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Re: Stephen Hawkings says: "Space exploration is key to human survival." [Re: Silversoul]
#5864518 - 07/16/06 07:05 AM (17 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
I am pessimistic towards those who put their faith in it as our one hope for the future. I sense a sort of defeatism in this kind of thinking.
Each and every one of these stars will probably have enough atomic debris (from dust particles to gas giant planets) surrounding them to render it inhabitable for let's say a trillion (thats only a thousand billion) humans and a vast collection of biospheres around them. All these stars are within 12.5 light years which means that even without magical propulsion they at most are a few generations away. And since travel then won't be transport but rather soaring through space on something ranging from a large biosphere craft to a small planet, it won't matter that it's travel.
But no! We're not thrashing planets while we move on, but rather we will *accumulate* planets and places where life will thrive. Earth will probably become something like a "national park" but then on a planetary scale, thriving when the burden of humanity is lifted from it, and full of yet-undescovered species and gene-combinations, that we can take among the stars with us. Lifeless planets and asteroids are the logical places for stripmining, and nuclear devices aren't bombs but charges for space engineering.
Whats bad about turning barren lumps of ice, rocks and sand into the homes of trillions of individuals of thousands of species? Not a damn thing! It would be a sin against LIFE if we didn't do it. We have the power to make the life-force that now exists on earth virtually immortal, letting it evolve for thousands of billions of years after the Sun has swallowed earth. And guess what, that might not even happen. Chances are that if we choose survival NOW, we can put the earth into ever higher orbits as the sun expands, and eventually ride our planet into space towards greener pastures, lighted by an artificial sun that's orbiting the earth like a moon 
Just look at how far mankind has come in 2 millennia. If we choose survival NOW, imagine what we would have achieved in 2.000.000 AD
And let's NOT wait until we get our enviromental shit in order. Lets do it now, as the problems of creating biosphere colonies might yield answers that are of crucial importance to solving earth's problems of today.
Let's look at a mining rig I thought up 
An atmosphere processing plant floating in the gas giant that is Neptune can easily process enough gases (1 kT) to output let's say 50 kilos of Deuterium a day, which is the energy equivalent of one billion liters of oil, as well as a great amount of the other fuel, Helium-3, both being non-radioactive and nontoxic.
As a byproduct of this extraction you will get sixty tons of methane gas, which by use of a tiny bit of the Deuterium energy can be transformed into very durable plastics such as polyethylene or polypropylene without need of outside precursors. So, the one lil rig floating around in Neptune's atmosphere outputs more fuel energy than an Oil State does now (but pollution free "green" energy) and as a side product produces a massive amount of heavy duty plastics which can be used in spaceship construction.
The energy equivalent of over 1/3 trillion liters of oil plus 22 thousand tons of highest quality construction polymer. Does that sound like a rig that Texaco, BP or Shell want to build?
And it can happen here! We can and in fact do isolate Deuterium from common water. One bucket of water can be cleanly deprived of a tiny and insignificant component (without losing its ability to support life) to yield the energy equivalent of a barrel of oil.
And guess what? The nations of the world are building the reactor right now!
I can get so carried away about what the future may hold for life on Earth if we play our cards right
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Edited by Asante (07/16/06 07:18 AM)
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