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OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero

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Quick poll, please vote!
    #5814762 - 07/03/06 04:45 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Please do not post discussion about the poll's question until after we have a lot of votes. I don't want to bias the results. I don't mind discussion about how somebody answered, just don't discuss the poll question itself. Thanks!
Before you are three boxes. Each box hides a token. Two tokens loose while one token wins. You goal is to find the winning token. You randomly pick the first box in hopes that it has the winning token. You are then shown that the third box contains a loosing token. Given the choice, should you switch to the second box or stick with your original guess?
You may choose only one


Votes accepted from (07/03/06 04:44 AM) to (No end specified)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll



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Offlinewilshire
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5815304 - 07/03/06 09:56 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

terrorists and switch.


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OfflineViveka
refutation bias
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5816257 - 07/03/06 02:40 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

This poll makes no sense.

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Offlinetallgreen
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Viveka]
    #5816287 - 07/03/06 02:48 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Yeah, I don't get it.


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Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
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OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero

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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: tallgreen]
    #5816373 - 07/03/06 03:21 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I will explain soon. I want to give it a day or two for more people to cast votes.


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Offlinefaslimy
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5816952 - 07/03/06 06:08 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

wheres the option for men behind the scenes pulling strings on boths ides

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InvisibleGabbaDjS
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5817635 - 07/03/06 08:51 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I think the US Government planned and had terrorists implemented the 9/11 attacks.

I like to think outside of the box. Unless the box has cookies in it.


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OfflineRosettaStoned
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5818625 - 07/04/06 01:39 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I think he's just trying to prove that forum polls are "unscientific"  :lol:

If not then your just going to find yourself in a giant tangle of possibilities where the extent of this poll will be no where near broad enough to come to any real conclusion.


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OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero

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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: RosettaStoned]
    #5818694 - 07/04/06 02:21 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

> think he's just trying to prove that forum polls are "unscientific"

Hehe... we all know that pretty much any online poll is unscientific.

The poll was designed to obfuscate what I am trying to measure. I am certain that many of those that have answered can see where this is going. I appreciate their maturity in not spoiling it for everybody else.

> wheres the option for men behind the scenes pulling strings on boths ides

I know the options are limited, but pick as best as you can. Kind of like voting for the president... "Uh, you mean I have to pick one of these two? Out of three hundred million people, this is the best the two parties could produce?"


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5819017 - 07/04/06 07:33 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Personally I believe that terrorists planned and implemented the attack but that certain parties in the US government willingly let it happen.

This option was not given so I go with Terrorists (because moles in the government are terrorists too) and because it doesnt matter whether its box 1 or 2 I'd probably settle for my first choice. (if the odds are a pure random 50/50 theres no need to be indecisive)


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OfflineChuangTzu
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Asante]
    #5819289 - 07/04/06 09:49 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

because moles in the government are terrorists too



Exactly. The US government is the world's most powerful terrorist organization.

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Invisibleniteowl
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Asante]
    #5822334 - 07/05/06 01:34 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

If moles in the government allowed the attacks, then the government had a hand in planning the attacks

(even if it were an indirect hand the government was involved).


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OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero

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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: niteowl]
    #5822533 - 07/05/06 03:10 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Thank you to everybody that voted in the poll and to everybody that knew the correct answer(s) and didn't give it away. Ignoring the conspiracy side of the poll, the three boxes problem is a very neat statistics problem called the Monty Hall Problem. Although it would appear that you have a 50/50 chance of winning regardless of what you do, this is incorrect. By switching boxes, you increase your odds of winning from 1/3 to 2/3. This problem is usually used in introduction statistics classes to show that statistics and intuition can conflict.

Read what you want from the poll. The sample size is much too small, and the controls are nonexistent, thus nothing of scientific value can be gained from the poll. However, it is interesting to note the spike on the correct answer for non-conspiracy folks versus the lack of a spike on the correct answer for the conspiracy folks. It would be interesting to see if this is noise, or not.

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Invisiblequiver
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: ChuangTzu]
    #5822557 - 07/05/06 03:42 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

ChuangTzu said:
Quote:

because moles in the government are terrorists too



Exactly.  The US government is the world's most powerful terrorist organization.





haha thats funny,go grab a pepsi :laugh:
i chose the last one


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: quiver]
    #5824228 - 07/05/06 04:16 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Seussy, my Schroedinger friend, although amusing your example is inapplicable. Probability, as in the Monty Hall Game, applies to the not yet happened, whether it be the roll of the dice or your knowledge of the result of the roll. The only probability issue involved here is whether this given population has a certain percentage of paranoid nitwits in it. That's really not even a probability issue (unless you're a bookie) as opposed to a statistical measurement one. Now you can take the results and try to assign a probability to whether the next person to join will be a nut or not, but it's still not a Monty Hall issue.


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Offlinewilshire
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5824297 - 07/05/06 04:35 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

so far, those who voted that they believe the 9/11 attacks were the work of terrorists were more than twice as likely to get the token question correct than those who said they believe the attacks were planned and implemented by the u.s. government. interesting.


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Offlinewilshire
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5824302 - 07/05/06 04:37 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

you should have put a time limit on it or something. some people are still voting even though the correct answer to the token question has been posted in the thread... not very honest of them, whoever it is.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5824454 - 07/05/06 05:23 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

What you've shown is that the "no conspiracy" people have a higher tendency for gullibly going along with the request to guess again :wink:

Seriously, I don't think the variance was caused by people who *knew* switching was right, but rather were people who'd like to *take a chance*

If you let bygones be bygones there are two doors, one right, one wrong, and you have no clue which is which. :ooo:


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Asante]
    #5824476 - 07/05/06 05:27 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

HUH?


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Offlineexclusive58
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Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5832525 - 07/07/06 04:48 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

well, i voted government responsibility, and it doesn't matter which box i choose, because i really don't care if i get the winning token or not! The 9/11 issue is too important to think of it as a winning or loosing situation. I think the results satisfy you because you don't see many "conspiracy nuts" getting the "right" answer, and that probably conforts you in your idea tha we're completely wrong.

Your poll really has nothing to do with the issue at hand. Just like you once posted this analogy trying to explain how the WTC collapsed which was completely inapplicable to the actual collapses:

Quote:

Think about putting a nail into a block of wood with a hammer. You set the nail against the wood, and then smack it with the hammer from a distance. You do not set the nail against the wood, the hammer against the nail, and then push the nail in with the hammer.

Why does the first method work well, and the second method does not? With the first method, I can pound a nail into a block of wood in almost no time at all with one good solid swing up the hammer. With the second method, I can push on the hammer all day and the nail still doesn't budge.

Now lets go back and think about the WTC towers falling... but think of the top floors as the head of the hammer and the bottom floors as the nail. Once the top floors started to move, the bottom floors didn't stand a chance, the same way the nail didn't stand a chance against the swung hammer. If the building had been solid, then the second anallogy would apply... a hammer pushing on a nail... but the towers were mostly open space and glass held up by a bit of steel and concrete, just like the air between the hammer and the nail in the first analogy.





http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat...rue#Post5380253


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