Home | Community | Message Board

Magic Mushrooms Zamnesia
This site includes paid links. Please support our sponsors.


Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! You are experiencing a small sample of what the site has to offer. Please login or register to post messages and view our exclusive members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, file attachments, board customizations, encrypted private messages, and much more!

Shop: Kraken Kratom Red Vein Kratom   PhytoExtractum Kratom Powder for Sale   Bridgetown Botanicals Bridgetown Botanicals   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

Jump to first unread post Pages: 1 | 2 | 3  [ show all ]
OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 2 months, 20 days
Quick poll, please vote!
    #5814762 - 07/03/06 04:45 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Please do not post discussion about the poll's question until after we have a lot of votes. I don't want to bias the results. I don't mind discussion about how somebody answered, just don't discuss the poll question itself. Thanks!
Before you are three boxes. Each box hides a token. Two tokens loose while one token wins. You goal is to find the winning token. You randomly pick the first box in hopes that it has the winning token. You are then shown that the third box contains a loosing token. Given the choice, should you switch to the second box or stick with your original guess?
You may choose only one


Votes accepted from (07/03/06 04:44 AM) to (No end specified)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll



--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinewilshire
free radical
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/11/05
Posts: 2,421
Loc: SE PA
Last seen: 14 years, 3 days
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5815304 - 07/03/06 09:56 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

terrorists and switch.


--------------------



Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineViveka
refutation bias
 User Gallery

Registered: 10/21/02
Posts: 4,061
Last seen: 7 years, 3 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5816257 - 07/03/06 02:40 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

This poll makes no sense.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinetallgreen
chillin like avillain
 User Gallery
Registered: 05/21/06
Posts: 293
Last seen: 17 years, 4 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Viveka]
    #5816287 - 07/03/06 02:48 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Yeah, I don't get it.


--------------------
Nothing you can know that isn't known.
Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
It's easy.
All you need is love.
- The Beatles


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 2 months, 20 days
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: tallgreen]
    #5816373 - 07/03/06 03:21 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

I will explain soon. I want to give it a day or two for more people to cast votes.


--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinefaslimy
Dead Man
 User Gallery
Registered: 04/04/04
Posts: 3,436
Last seen: 8 years, 1 month
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5816952 - 07/03/06 06:08 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

wheres the option for men behind the scenes pulling strings on boths ides


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleGabbaDjS
BTH
 User Gallery

Registered: 04/08/01
Posts: 19,679
Loc: By The Lake
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5817635 - 07/03/06 08:51 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

I think the US Government planned and had terrorists implemented the 9/11 attacks.

I like to think outside of the box. Unless the box has cookies in it.


--------------------
GabbaDj

FAMM.ORG             


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineRosettaStoned
Stranger

Registered: 05/29/06
Posts: 540
Loc: North America
Last seen: 15 years, 10 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5818625 - 07/04/06 01:39 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

I think he's just trying to prove that forum polls are "unscientific"  :lol:

If not then your just going to find yourself in a giant tangle of possibilities where the extent of this poll will be no where near broad enough to come to any real conclusion.


--------------------
"Government big enough to provide you with all you need is also big enough to take everything you have." ~ Thomas Jefferson

"Without stupid, faggy potheads we wouldn't have wars." - Zappa


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 2 months, 20 days
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: RosettaStoned]
    #5818694 - 07/04/06 02:21 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

> think he's just trying to prove that forum polls are "unscientific"

Hehe... we all know that pretty much any online poll is unscientific.

The poll was designed to obfuscate what I am trying to measure. I am certain that many of those that have answered can see where this is going. I appreciate their maturity in not spoiling it for everybody else.

> wheres the option for men behind the scenes pulling strings on boths ides

I know the options are limited, but pick as best as you can. Kind of like voting for the president... "Uh, you mean I have to pick one of these two? Out of three hundred million people, this is the best the two parties could produce?"


--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleAsante
Mage
Male User Gallery

Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5819017 - 07/04/06 07:33 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Personally I believe that terrorists planned and implemented the attack but that certain parties in the US government willingly let it happen.

This option was not given so I go with Terrorists (because moles in the government are terrorists too) and because it doesnt matter whether its box 1 or 2 I'd probably settle for my first choice. (if the odds are a pure random 50/50 theres no need to be indecisive)


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineChuangTzu
starvingphysicist
Male User Gallery

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 09/04/02
Posts: 3,060
Last seen: 10 years, 3 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Asante]
    #5819289 - 07/04/06 09:49 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

because moles in the government are terrorists too



Exactly. The US government is the world's most powerful terrorist organization.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisibleniteowl
GrandPaw
Male User Gallery

Registered: 07/01/03
Posts: 16,291
Loc: Flag
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Asante]
    #5822334 - 07/05/06 01:34 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

If moles in the government allowed the attacks, then the government had a hand in planning the attacks

(even if it were an indirect hand the government was involved).


--------------------
Live for the moment you are in now
Don't be bogged down by your past
Don't be afraid of what lies in your future


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 2 months, 20 days
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: niteowl]
    #5822533 - 07/05/06 03:10 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Thank you to everybody that voted in the poll and to everybody that knew the correct answer(s) and didn't give it away. Ignoring the conspiracy side of the poll, the three boxes problem is a very neat statistics problem called the Monty Hall Problem. Although it would appear that you have a 50/50 chance of winning regardless of what you do, this is incorrect. By switching boxes, you increase your odds of winning from 1/3 to 2/3. This problem is usually used in introduction statistics classes to show that statistics and intuition can conflict.

Read what you want from the poll. The sample size is much too small, and the controls are nonexistent, thus nothing of scientific value can be gained from the poll. However, it is interesting to note the spike on the correct answer for non-conspiracy folks versus the lack of a spike on the correct answer for the conspiracy folks. It would be interesting to see if this is noise, or not.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblequiver
freedrug
Male

Registered: 10/25/05
Posts: 8,047
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: ChuangTzu]
    #5822557 - 07/05/06 03:42 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

ChuangTzu said:
Quote:

because moles in the government are terrorists too



Exactly.  The US government is the world's most powerful terrorist organization.





haha thats funny,go grab a pepsi :laugh:
i chose the last one


--------------------


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: quiver]
    #5824228 - 07/05/06 04:16 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Seussy, my Schroedinger friend, although amusing your example is inapplicable. Probability, as in the Monty Hall Game, applies to the not yet happened, whether it be the roll of the dice or your knowledge of the result of the roll. The only probability issue involved here is whether this given population has a certain percentage of paranoid nitwits in it. That's really not even a probability issue (unless you're a bookie) as opposed to a statistical measurement one. Now you can take the results and try to assign a probability to whether the next person to join will be a nut or not, but it's still not a Monty Hall issue.


--------------------


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinewilshire
free radical
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/11/05
Posts: 2,421
Loc: SE PA
Last seen: 14 years, 3 days
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5824297 - 07/05/06 04:35 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

so far, those who voted that they believe the 9/11 attacks were the work of terrorists were more than twice as likely to get the token question correct than those who said they believe the attacks were planned and implemented by the u.s. government. interesting.


--------------------



Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinewilshire
free radical
Male User Gallery

Registered: 05/11/05
Posts: 2,421
Loc: SE PA
Last seen: 14 years, 3 days
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5824302 - 07/05/06 04:37 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

you should have put a time limit on it or something. some people are still voting even though the correct answer to the token question has been posted in the thread... not very honest of them, whoever it is.


--------------------



Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleAsante
Mage
Male User Gallery

Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5824454 - 07/05/06 05:23 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

What you've shown is that the "no conspiracy" people have a higher tendency for gullibly going along with the request to guess again :wink:

Seriously, I don't think the variance was caused by people who *knew* switching was right, but rather were people who'd like to *take a chance*

If you let bygones be bygones there are two doors, one right, one wrong, and you have no clue which is which. :ooo:


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Asante]
    #5824476 - 07/05/06 05:27 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

HUH?


--------------------


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlineexclusive58
illegal alien

Registered: 04/16/04
Posts: 2,146
Last seen: 5 years, 10 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5832525 - 07/07/06 04:48 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

well, i voted government responsibility, and it doesn't matter which box i choose, because i really don't care if i get the winning token or not! The 9/11 issue is too important to think of it as a winning or loosing situation. I think the results satisfy you because you don't see many "conspiracy nuts" getting the "right" answer, and that probably conforts you in your idea tha we're completely wrong.

Your poll really has nothing to do with the issue at hand. Just like you once posted this analogy trying to explain how the WTC collapsed which was completely inapplicable to the actual collapses:

Quote:

Think about putting a nail into a block of wood with a hammer. You set the nail against the wood, and then smack it with the hammer from a distance. You do not set the nail against the wood, the hammer against the nail, and then push the nail in with the hammer.

Why does the first method work well, and the second method does not? With the first method, I can pound a nail into a block of wood in almost no time at all with one good solid swing up the hammer. With the second method, I can push on the hammer all day and the nail still doesn't budge.

Now lets go back and think about the WTC towers falling... but think of the top floors as the head of the hammer and the bottom floors as the nail. Once the top floors started to move, the bottom floors didn't stand a chance, the same way the nail didn't stand a chance against the swung hammer. If the building had been solid, then the second anallogy would apply... a hammer pushing on a nail... but the towers were mostly open space and glass held up by a bit of steel and concrete, just like the air between the hammer and the nail in the first analogy.





http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat...rue#Post5380253


--------------------


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisibleshroomydan
exshroomerite
 User Gallery

Registered: 07/04/04
Posts: 4,126
Loc: In the woods
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5833033 - 07/07/06 07:04 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

I don't think the Monty Hall Paradox is valid. After one door is opened revealing a goat, it is no longer valid to view a choice of doors as a choice between three possibilities.

The choice whether to change doors is a choice between two. There is a fifty-fifty chance of a car being behind each door.
While the original pick yields a one in three chance, once one goat inhabited door is removed, holding the original door is the logical and mathematic equivalent of choosing it again, this time with a one in two chance of it containing a car. Monty Hall paradox theory treats holding the original door as a single choice among three possibilities, when in actuality there are two choices involved: the original choice among three, and the second choice (hold) between two.


I read the wikipedia link and noticed there is no reference to any scientific journal. I suspect a controlled scientific experiment ( one group switching every time, one group holding every time, and one group switching or holding randomly) would reveal the Monty Hall Paradox as the Monty Hall Myth.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: shroomydan]
    #5833107 - 07/07/06 07:27 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

I gotta think more


Edited by zappaisgod (07/07/06 07:29 PM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleAsante
Mage
Male User Gallery

Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: shroomydan]
    #5833200 - 07/07/06 07:57 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

You could take a step back and say your chance is one in three throughout the whole procedure: If you pick a door you either got it or you don't, and it doesnt matter if you switch or if Mr Monty pulls open a door: It still remains to be seen if your single pick (switched or not) was correct. Switching is not a second pick because it has not been determined if your first pick was success or failure so if you switch, it is as if your first pick never happened and that makes the switch your first pick.

So Wikipedia and all the clever statistics guys have got it wrong :smirk:

Mr Monty can always pull open a door (two goats and one pick after all) so that is without consequence.
If you switch without having seen whats behind the door of your initial pick, the switch becomes your first pick because the former has remained without consequence or predictive value.
So it in all these cases is a 1 in 3 chance any way you go about it.


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here


Edited by Asante (07/07/06 08:04 PM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleMckennaManiac420
HEIL HOUSELER!
 User Gallery
Registered: 02/27/06
Posts: 285
Loc: Drunk Male Prostitute
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5833653 - 07/07/06 10:49 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Thats interesting Seuss. I didn't grasp it at first but after thinking of monty hall with 9 boxes it made more sense.


--------------------
:septemberlol:


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineChuangTzu
starvingphysicist
Male User Gallery

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 09/04/02
Posts: 3,060
Last seen: 10 years, 3 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Asante]
    #5834520 - 07/08/06 09:02 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

I read the wikipedia link and noticed there is no reference to any scientific journal. I suspect a controlled scientific experiment ( one group switching every time, one group holding every time, and one group switching or holding randomly) would reveal the Monty Hall Paradox as the Monty Hall Myth.



There have been computerized simulations. Which are good enough for me.

Quote:

So Wikipedia and all the clever statistics guys have got it wrong.
. . .
So it in all these cases is a 1 in 3 chance any way you go about it.




You're disregarding the fact that the host knows where the winning token is. Read the wikipedia section on the 99 door Monty Hall problem.

I found this paper (from the Journal of Experimental Economics) interesting.

More papers can be found here.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineTao
Village Genius

Registered: 09/19/03
Posts: 7,935
Loc: San Diego
Last seen: 8 years, 7 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5837321 - 07/08/06 11:09 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Did you recently read The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-time?


--------------------
Magash's Grain Tek  + Tub-in-Tub Incubator + Magash's PMP + SBP Tek + Dunking = Practically all a newbie grower needs :thumbup:


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Tao]
    #5838138 - 07/09/06 09:40 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

I just went to the computer thing Chuang Tzu linked and played each ten times. I got 50% switching or sticking both. Which is what I would expect. The first choice made in a 1 out of 3 universe is rendered moot when the real choice, to stick or switch, is in a 1 out of 2 universe.


--------------------


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineChuangTzu
starvingphysicist
Male User Gallery

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 09/04/02
Posts: 3,060
Last seen: 10 years, 3 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #5838434 - 07/09/06 11:18 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Your sample size was much too small to draw any conclusions. I just played it manually 30 times each way and got 50% and 66.7% for sticking and switching respectively. That's also a small sample size but any more would require too much clicking. So I let the computer pick for me 1000 times each way. The end results were 37.8% when sticking and 66.4% for switching—which is more or less exactly as predicted.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: ChuangTzu]
    #5838512 - 07/09/06 11:38 AM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

ChuangTzu said:
Your sample size was much too small to draw any conclusions. I just played it manually 30 times each way and got 50% and 66.7% for sticking and switching respectively. That's also a small sample size but any more would require too much clicking. So I let the computer pick for me 1000 times each way. The end results were 37.8% when sticking and 66.4% for switching—which is more or less exactly as predicted.




I know my sample was small, but I just can't follow the logic that gets the 1/3, 2/3 result and frankly distrust the results from the computer simulation. Programming errors and all. I think my statement about the universe in which the true choice occurs is "stick or switch", 50%.
We combine your results with my results and we get 50% and 62.5%. Flip a coin 80 times and see what happens.
I can actually see a logic that would net a 50%, 66.7% rate. Given that 33.3% is expected from a no Monty game, 50% correct from a Monty + "stick" and a 66.7% for a Monty + "switch", that adds up.
Converesly


--------------------


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineChuangTzu
starvingphysicist
Male User Gallery

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 09/04/02
Posts: 3,060
Last seen: 10 years, 3 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #5838610 - 07/09/06 12:13 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

frankly distrust the results from the computer simulation. Programming errors and all.



What are the odds that so many different computer programs, written in different languages by different people, would make a random error which not only agreed with each other but also with theory?

Quote:

I can actually see a logic that would net a 50%, 66.7% rate. Given that 33.3% is expected from a no Monty game, 50% correct from a Monty + "stick" and a 66.7% for a Monty + "switch", that adds up.



Actually, it doesn't add up. The sum of the probabilities of all possible choices must equal 100%. If the probability of winning is 66.7% for switching, the probability for winning when sticking must be 100 - 66.7 = 33.3%.

Again, I encourage you to read the wikipedia section on the 100 door Monty Hall problem. Then you'll see why the host's knowledge of what is behind the doors throws off the naive probabilities.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: ChuangTzu]
    #5838773 - 07/09/06 12:59 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

No I did read it. And the probabilities add up because there are 3 100%s being dealt with.
First one: No Monty 33% win 67% lose
Second: Monty + "stick 50/50
Third: Monty + "switch" 67/33


--------------------


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineChuangTzu
starvingphysicist
Male User Gallery

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 09/04/02
Posts: 3,060
Last seen: 10 years, 3 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #5838871 - 07/09/06 01:36 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Those probabilities are related though. The first one is irrelevant since we are talking about a Monty Hall situation. The last two are complementary situations—either you switch, or you stay. Only one choice "wins". They aren't separate scenarios. The sum of the probabilities must be 1 because if you switch and win, you would have lost if you had stuck and vice versa. So for each choice which results in a win, there is a corresponding loss for the other choice. When the chance of winning by switching is 66.7%, there must be a 66.7% chance of losing when sticking.

Can you see how in the 100 door problem, switching is advantageous?


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: ChuangTzu]
    #5839078 - 07/09/06 02:54 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

You forget, and if you look at the computer link one where you play they end up with 4 results for 2 separate scenarios.

Switch/win vs switch/lose and
Stick/win vs stick/lose
A total of 200%

Throw in the no Monty (a real occurence)which is a 33 lose 67 win and the switch has to be 67/33 and to maintain the probability across all three.....


--------------------


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineChuangTzu
starvingphysicist
Male User Gallery

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 09/04/02
Posts: 3,060
Last seen: 10 years, 3 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #5839152 - 07/09/06 03:09 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

What are you trying to say?


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleDiploidM
Cuban

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #5839780 - 07/09/06 06:08 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

I know my sample was small, but I just can't follow the logic that gets the 1/3, 2/3 result and frankly distrust the results from the computer simulation.

Forget programs and simulations for a second.

There is one explanation of the problem in the wiki that is easy to understand without math and irrefutable...


No matter what choice the player initially makes, at the point when the player is asked if he wants to switch, one of the following three states will be true:

A. The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 1. The game host has shown the other goat.

B. The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 2. The game host has shown the other goat.

C. The player originally picked the door hiding the car. The game host has shown either of the two goats.


Remember that everything before choice-time is irrelevant because, no matter what, at choice-time the game state will ALWAYS be in one of those three states. It doesn't matter how we got here. The important thing to realize is that the game ALWAYS reaches one of these three states at choice-time.

Now, going forward from this point notice that in both case A and B, switching wins, and only in case C does switching lose. That means that switching gives a 2 in 3 chance of wining and staying put gives only a 1 in 3 chance of winning.


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineChuangTzu
starvingphysicist
Male User Gallery

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 09/04/02
Posts: 3,060
Last seen: 10 years, 3 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Diploid]
    #5839938 - 07/09/06 06:54 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Another point made in the wiki is that when it's time to choose between stay or switch, you're actually choosing between one door ("stay", 1/3) and the other two doors (switch, 2/3). By the host's action of revealing a goat behind one of the other two doors, he is making it possible for you to switch to the other doors knowing that if one of them has the car he won't reveal it (and thus if there is a goat behind the set of both other doors, you are guaranteed to choose it). This contrasts with your original choice which was completely random.


Edited by ChuangTzu (07/09/06 07:43 PM)


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Diploid]
    #5839939 - 07/09/06 06:54 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Stop. Here is my issue. In condition three you actually conflate two conditions into one. The two conditions NEED to be separated.
3. You picked the car and Monty reveals goat 1
4. You picked the car and Monty reveals goat 2

This is where I have the problem and why I don't necessarily trust the simulations


--------------------


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
InvisibleDiploidM
Cuban

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #5840343 - 07/09/06 09:04 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

3. You picked the car and Monty reveals goat 1
4. You picked the car and Monty reveals goat 2


From a probability point of view, they are the same because both have the same outcome.

What you're saying is something like that the chances of flipping two heads in a row are different than flipping one head, then flipping another head.


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineChuangTzu
starvingphysicist
Male User Gallery

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 09/04/02
Posts: 3,060
Last seen: 10 years, 3 months
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #5840387 - 07/09/06 09:19 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

You could just as well write it like this:

A. The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 1. The game host shows a goat.

B. The player originally picked the door hiding goat number 2. The game host shows a goat.

C. The player originally picked the door hiding the car. The game host shows a goat.


Which goat the host reveals is irrelevant. The situations are determined by the 3 (equiprobable) possible initial choices of the player (goat 1, goat 2, car). All including the extra goat information does is split C into 2 sub-scenarios with a probability of 1/6 each.

I'm interested in your reply to my previous post (which I believe is the crux of the Monty Hall problem).


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinePhred
Fred's son
Male

Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 12,949
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 9 years, 18 days
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: zappaisgod]
    #5840476 - 07/09/06 09:42 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

Try thinking of it not in terms of goats and cars, but in the classic Three Card Monte scenario, where the dealer switches around three cards --

Ace of Diamonds (red)
Ace of Clubs (black)
Ace of Spades (black)

You win if you pick the red ace and lose if you pick either of the two black aces. You make your choice and the dealer then turns over one of the remaining cards and it is a black ace. He then asks you if you want to stick with your first pick or switch.

Even though the two black cards are aces, they are not the SAME ace. One is a club, the other is a spade. Getting back to the Monty Hall scenario, don't think of it as two goats, but as a goat and a pig.

There is nothing wrong with any of the computer simulations, I assure you. You can do the same thing with a friend playing the dealer in a Three Card Monte scenario if you are willing to take the time. The results will be the same. As a matter of fact, I did just that a few decades ago when this seeming paradox was first presented to me.

As has been pointed out, the correct strategy is counter-intuitive. Looking at the problem superficially, almost anyone will say the odds are the same of winning whether you switch or stick. But they odds AREN'T the same because the CHOICE isn't the same.

However, I do believe this has gone on long enough. We are no longer talking politics, but statistics. It's been quite some time since there has been any post in the thread of a political nature, therefore I will lock it and leave it locked until Seuss requests it to be reopened.



Phred


--------------------


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflinePhred
Fred's son
Male

Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 12,949
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 9 years, 18 days
Re: Quick poll, please vote! [Re: Seuss]
    #5840480 - 07/09/06 09:42 PM (17 years, 6 months ago)

This thread has been closed.

Reason:
as described above


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Jump to top Pages: 1 | 2 | 3  [ show all ]

Shop: Kraken Kratom Red Vein Kratom   PhytoExtractum Kratom Powder for Sale   Bridgetown Botanicals Bridgetown Botanicals   Unfolding Nature Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order


Similar ThreadsPosterViewsRepliesLast post
* Democrats say Taco bell poll is rigged wingnutx 1,136 18 09/08/03 03:00 AM
by luvdemshrooms
* Interesting (but long) article on electronic voting. luvdemshrooms 791 0 10/15/03 03:44 PM
by luvdemshrooms
* Millions Blocked from Voting in U.S. Election (nov 2 2004) guri 1,404 9 09/22/04 08:10 PM
by zappaisgod
* Bombs in the Building: World Trade Center 'Conspiracy Fact'
( 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 all )
ekomstop 17,513 176 09/28/04 12:14 AM
by ekomstop
* Why the media's conspiracy theory is better than yours
( 1 2 all )
ekomstop 4,255 31 09/23/04 03:27 PM
by ekomstop
* USA-watch out for the poll watchers carbonhoots 877 3 11/05/02 10:49 AM
by ehud
* another 911 conspiracy article TrueBrode 3,103 19 06/16/17 08:02 PM
by rondou
* Global Elite-Conspiracy
( 1 2 3 4 all )
TrueBrode 5,424 62 01/17/04 03:53 PM
by luvdemshrooms

Extra information
You cannot start new topics / You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled / BBCode is enabled
Moderator: Enlil, ballsalsa
3,142 topic views. 0 members, 7 guests and 9 web crawlers are browsing this forum.
[ Show Images Only | Sort by Score | Print Topic ]
Search this thread:

Copyright 1997-2024 Mind Media. Some rights reserved.

Generated in 0.054 seconds spending 0.026 seconds on 19 queries.