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The_Red_Crayon
Exposer of Truth


Registered: 08/13/03
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Loc: Smokey Mtns. TN
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Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US.
#5776739 - 06/21/06 02:18 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/
JOURNAL: Why al Qaeda hasn't attacked the US since 9/11 One good explanation is from a brief I wrote back in 2004 on (see the brief "Terrorist Death-March") how terrorism suffers from diminishing returns against stable enemies. Simply, the more it is used, the less valuable it is (which is a good thing). The reason for this is psychological. Target Western populations (and the press) become inured to terrorism in much the same way they do with petty crime. Each subsequent attack has less of a psychological impact than the first. In order to compensate for this, a terrorism planner must make each subsequent attack even more damaging or symbolically devastating than earlier attacks. The result is a death march until entire terrorism campaign runs out of steam.
This approach in part explains why the US hasn't suffered another attack since 9/11 -- the other factors being improved security (debatable) and the break-up of camps in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda has not opted to attack the US is because it hasn't been able to muster an attack that could exceed 9/11 in damage. Instead, and this is explained in the brief I linked to above, it has moved to new targets that access new geographies and political dimensions (Madrid, London, etc.).
A good example of this framework in action is found in the recent revelations unearthed by Ron Suskind in his new book called "The One Percent Doctrine." An excerpt made available through TIME magazine has this valuable tidbit: Ali revealed that Ayeri had visited Ayman Zawahiri in January 2003, to inform him of a plot to attack the New York City subway system using cyanide gas. Several mubtakkars (NOTE: small, portable, chemical weapon delivery systems) were to be placed in subway cars and other strategic locations. This was not simply a proposal; the plot was well under way. In fact, zero-hour was only 45 days away. But then, for reasons still debated by U.S. intelligence officials, Zawahiri called off the attack. "Ali did not know the precise explanation why. He just knew that Zawahiri had called them off."
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Annapurna1
liberal pussy

Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
#5776817 - 06/21/06 02:51 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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my answer to the title question is .."because the neocons have not yet found it necessary to stage another one"...but if it ever looks like the repugnicants are about to lose the next election (and thats not the case now..despite news polls to the contrary)..and they cant (or wont) produce osama bin goldsteins' scalp..then you can rest assured that something else will get blown up...
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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
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SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis


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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Annapurna1]
#5777039 - 06/21/06 04:10 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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I think its fear. The enemy knows that the United States does not mess around.
I don't agree that a terrorist attack has to be in greater scope then the first.
What do you think would happen if nail bombs went off in Walmart throughout a one month period? Causalities around 200...... And it turns out that it is a cell from Iran..... Iran and the terrorist cell itself knows we would retaliate with a much bigger stick......
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
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zappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Annapurna1]
#5777135 - 06/21/06 04:42 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Annapurna1 said: my answer to the title question is .."because the neocons have not yet found it necessary to stage another one"...but if it ever looks like the repugnicants are about to lose the next election (and thats not the case now..despite news polls to the contrary)..and they cant (or wont) produce osama bin goldsteins' scalp..then you can rest assured that something else will get blown up...
Get help. You're starting to sound somewhat like Valerie Solanas.
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Annapurna1
liberal pussy

Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: zappaisgod]
#5777278 - 06/21/06 05:38 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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goddess bless her soul...EDIT ..not that i care much for VJSs particular brand of bigotry..but OTOH..ppl like zappa cant help but make me wonder if she wasnt right...
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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...
Edited by Annapurna1 (06/22/06 06:44 PM)
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Basilides
Servent ofWisdom


Registered: 02/10/06
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5777683 - 06/21/06 07:19 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
SirTripAlot said: I think its fear. The enemy knows that the United States does not mess around.
I don't agree that a terrorist attack has to be in greater scope then the first.
What do you think would happen if nail bombs went off in Walmart throughout a one month period? Causalities around 200...... And it turns out that it is a cell from Iran..... Iran and the terrorist cell itself knows we would retaliate with a much bigger stick......
I don't think they're afraid of the U.S. in any sense. The only thing jihadists are afraid of is being taken alive by any police force or government
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    "Have you found the beginning, then, that you are looking for the end? You see, the end will be where the beginning is. Congratulations to the one who stands at the beginning: that one will know the end and will not taste death."
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xDuckYouSuckerx
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Basilides]
#5777858 - 06/21/06 07:56 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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They sure ran pretty fast from us for people who weren't scared. As Trips said, fire off a mag of AK's at an incredible range, run away and plant some pathetic bomb. They didn't have IED's working right when I dealt with them, just looked like a m-80 going off. But somehow, as all liberal / america-haters pray and hope, they'll somehow wave their wand-o-magic and win the war. Doubtful.
-------------------- Unions are the bastions of the mediocre. - luvdemshrooms
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Luddite
I watch Fox News


Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Basilides]
#5777870 - 06/21/06 07:58 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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The war hawks are serious. They won't stop until all the terrorists are locked up or dead. I wouldn't doubt that there are even secret death camps for the Islamocrazies, and a number of western countries are involved while trying to hide them from the neocommies.
PRAISE JESUS AND PASS THE AMMUNITION!!!
(I'm not really religious, but I'm still in favor of a 21st century crusade like we're having now)
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Luddite
I watch Fox News


Registered: 03/23/06
Posts: 2,946
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Luddite]
#5777896 - 06/21/06 08:02 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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kotik
fuckingsuperhero


Registered: 06/29/04
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Luddite]
#5777996 - 06/21/06 08:20 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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'cause are prezadints doin a hekuva job
-------------------- No statements made in any post or message by myself should be construed to mean that I am now, or have ever been, participating in or considering participation in any activities in violation of any local, state, or federal laws. All posts are works of fiction.
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Basilides
Servent ofWisdom


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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: xDuckYouSuckerx]
#5778180 - 06/21/06 09:13 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
xDuckYouSuckerx said: stuff
--------------------
    "Have you found the beginning, then, that you are looking for the end? You see, the end will be where the beginning is. Congratulations to the one who stands at the beginning: that one will know the end and will not taste death."
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Basilides
Servent ofWisdom


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Posts: 7,059
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Last seen: 12 years, 11 months
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Luddite]
#5778192 - 06/21/06 09:16 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Luddite said: The war hawks are serious. They won't stop until all the terrorists are locked up or dead. I wouldn't doubt that there are even secret death camps for the Islamocrazies, and a number of western countries are involved while trying to hide them from the neocommies.
PRAISE JESUS AND PASS THE AMMUNITION!!!
(I'm not really religious, but I'm still in favor of a 21st century crusade like we're having now)
What the hell does Jesus have to do with invading another country.
--------------------
    "Have you found the beginning, then, that you are looking for the end? You see, the end will be where the beginning is. Congratulations to the one who stands at the beginning: that one will know the end and will not taste death."
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xDuckYouSuckerx
xBannedx


Registered: 05/25/06
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Basilides]
#5778509 - 06/21/06 10:42 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Jesus loves us, and by default hates you, for supporting the destruction of non-believers.
-------------------- Unions are the bastions of the mediocre. - luvdemshrooms
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Redstorm
Prince of Bugs



Registered: 10/08/02
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: xDuckYouSuckerx]
#5778567 - 06/21/06 10:55 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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If you think all liberals hate the US and want us to lose the war, I fear you have fallen to the most severe depths of lunacy and most likely can not be saved.
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downforpot
Stranger

Registered: 06/25/01
Posts: 5,715
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: xDuckYouSuckerx]
#5778936 - 06/22/06 12:26 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Are you a patriot or a loyalist?
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http://www.myspace.com/4th25 "And I don't care if he was handcuffed Then shot in his head All I know is dead bodies Can't fuck with me again"
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Alex213
Stranger
Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
#5779170 - 06/22/06 01:43 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Probably because al-qaeda has been built up out of all proportion to be a "threat to civilisation" when in reality it's the same two-bit outfit it always has been. Bush needs a threat to justify funnelling money to his corporate buddies in the military-industrial complex.
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The_Red_Crayon
Exposer of Truth


Registered: 08/13/03
Posts: 13,673
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Alex213]
#5779215 - 06/22/06 01:56 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Alex213 said: Probably because al-qaeda has been built up out of all proportion to be a "threat to civilisation" when in reality it's the same two-bit outfit it always has been. Bush needs a threat to justify funnelling money to his corporate buddies in the military-industrial complex.
Al Qaeda is no longer a strict organization, like a company with a ceo and a long chain of commands and subcommands. Al Qaeda is more of a movement, which is exactly Osama intended, Todays terrorists are highly adaptable and are literally sleeper agents, They are decentralized and really have no chain or line of command to Al Qaeda. Its usually a person who has a connection to a militant cleric and its usually a very tough network to crack.
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Alex213
Stranger
Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
#5779387 - 06/22/06 02:48 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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True, but I don't think that makes it necessarily more effective. I mean the leader of al-qaeda in Iraq had a few women and a child with him when he was killed. It doesn't sound like he even had any guards. We're not talking a massively powerful organisation. I don't think they come anywhere near to the power of the IRA in the 70's. The IRA were launching attacks every couple of months.
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The_Red_Crayon
Exposer of Truth


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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5779566 - 06/22/06 04:59 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
SirTripAlot said: I think its fear. The enemy knows that the United States does not mess around.
I don't agree that a terrorist attack has to be in greater scope then the first.
What do you think would happen if nail bombs went off in Walmart throughout a one month period? Causalities around 200...... And it turns out that it is a cell from Iran..... Iran and the terrorist cell itself knows we would retaliate with a much bigger stick......
My uno numero fear is that somehow a massive amount of terrorists and sleeper cells can go to mexico, learn spanish and get fake SS numbers and papers and hop right over the border. To most americans mexicans and arabs look quite alike, itleast to me heh.
and like you said earlier, it doesnt really take a advanced knowledge of explosives to produce a effective explosive, i remember hearing that when Israel would go through palestinian refugee camps, they could tell who had been making bombs because they were usually missing fingers ala TATP.
Say a Ryder van packed to the brim with ammonium nitrate fertilizer and diesel fuel would be the most effective method for a large scale terrorist bomb. Where our strength is on this is the fact that acquiring these materials on a massive scale will set off red lights to law enforcement and if a terrorist network is sloppy enough they can bring down the entire network. (Like the Toronto cell)
I think if the terrorists smartened up they would just straight up target oil refineries or electrical grids, Any critical infrastructure that is destroyed eliminates the status quo.
The US's top priority should be the protection of Critical system infrastructure(Oil refineries,Electrical grids,and nuclear power plants) and to Tighten border security so as no groups can succesfully infiltrate the US with say nuclear materials or chemical weapons.
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The_Red_Crayon
Exposer of Truth


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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Alex213]
#5779580 - 06/22/06 05:08 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Alex213 said: True, but I don't think that makes it necessarily more effective. I mean the leader of al-qaeda in Iraq had a few women and a child with him when he was killed. It doesn't sound like he even had any guards. We're not talking a massively powerful organisation. I don't think they come anywhere near to the power of the IRA in the 70's. The IRA were launching attacks every couple of months.
Zarqawi became more of a Spokesperson for AQII when he was bombed. He became a transitional leader (similar to Osama and Zawahiri) Zarqawi in 2003 and 2004 directly led groups of men and directed networks of people seeking martyrdom, and to the bomb manufacturers to rig VBIEDs. By 2006 Zarqawi has become more of a spokesperson and not really someone who pulled the strings. Which is why no video surfaced of him during 2003 to 2005. By 2006 he had succesfully united his own Sunni insurgency into a large cohesive group. His work was done and the only thing left to do was churn out propaganda videos.
The IRA was a very effective group no doubt, but they could never exceed the amount of destruction and death that AQII brought upon Iraq in a 3 year period. Zarqawi was a irrational leader and honestly a genuine piece of shit, Even Zawahiri told him to tone his banter down.
When his last video came out and he started calling Iranians and Shiites "jews" and a whole bunch of other shit. It just infuriated lots of Iraqi's, especially considering he is Jordanian. This defenitely spelt out the end of his days, He was ratted out by his own network. Something usually unheard of in his field of work.
Oh yea and as far as IRA goes.
Tiocfaidh Ar La! Freedom then peace.
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OJK
Stranger

Registered: 06/08/03
Posts: 10,629
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5779765 - 06/22/06 07:27 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
SirTripAlot said: I think its fear. The enemy knows that the United States does not mess around.

You can't possibly believe that.
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Alex213
Stranger
Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
#5779927 - 06/22/06 09:32 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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The IRA was a very effective group no doubt, but they could never exceed the amount of destruction and death that AQII brought upon Iraq in a 3 year period.
Have al-qaeda brought much death and destruction to Iraq? I thought the general consensus was that zarkawi was very much a fringe figure and that most of the violence is by Iraqis who had nothing to do with al-qaeda.
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Alex213
Stranger
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: The_Red_Crayon]
#5779937 - 06/22/06 09:35 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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I think if the terrorists smartened up they would just straight up target oil refineries or electrical grids
My guess is the oil refineries are guarded up the ass and are pretty much impregnable. They have been blowing oil pipes tho.
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tallgreen
chillin like avillain

Registered: 05/21/06
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Alex213]
#5779977 - 06/22/06 09:52 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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I heard this on NPR, its not an exact quote:
Host: Are you saying the war is about oil, and not just about a war on terrorism? Ted Coppel: Of course it's about oil! It's always been about oil. Ever since we've had conflicts in the region it's been with the intention to stabilize for oil trade, it's always been about oil.
Ted Coppel is a well respected journalist. I already suspected this idea, many people preach it, "no more blood for oil", etc, etc. But to hear it from a highly educated public figure was a bit of an eye opener. This war has a hidden agenda, I don't think any of us can say for sure what is going on.
-------------------- Nothing you can know that isn't known. Nothing you can see that isn't shown. Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be. It's easy. All you need is love. - The Beatles
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SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis


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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: OJK]
#5779981 - 06/22/06 09:55 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Odiumjunkie said:
Quote:
SirTripAlot said: I think its fear. The enemy knows that the United States does not mess around.

You can't possibly believe that.
Are you from the thought police?
I do belive that.
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
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Redstorm
Prince of Bugs



Registered: 10/08/02
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: SirTripAlot]
#5779987 - 06/22/06 09:56 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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I don't believe religious terrorists are afraid of anything other than not being able to go to their God after death.
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SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis


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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Redstorm]
#5780013 - 06/22/06 10:09 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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I believe every man, no matter what race or religion, is afraid to die. I remember right before going into Iraq, everyone in my platoon, was talking so much shit, about war. Things got real quite when the first black body bags showed up.
It is possible to conquer your fear....like the Kamikaze pilots of WW2, but it still exists to conquer....
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
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Economist
in training


Registered: 10/11/05
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: OJK]
#5780042 - 06/22/06 10:25 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Odiumjunkie said:
Quote:
SirTripAlot said: I think its fear. The enemy knows that the United States does not mess around.

You can't possibly believe that.
Why is this so hard to believe?
The invasion of Iraq was enough to convince the government of Libya to suddenly up and lay down arms.
After the invasion of Iraq, when the US told Syria it was time to leave Lebanon, they suddenly left (despite not listening to similar calls prior to the invasion of Iraq).
After the invasion of Iraq, North Korea has suddenly taken threats from the US seriously for the first time since the 1990s.
I don't think the invasion of Iraq was a good idea, but to say that other nations around the world aren't at least slightly more afraid of what the US might do in the future is just wrong.
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Vvellum
Stranger

Registered: 05/24/04
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Re: Why there hasnt been another terrorrist attack in the US. [Re: Economist]
#5780101 - 06/22/06 10:49 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
The invasion of Iraq was enough to convince the government of Libya to suddenly up and lay down arms.
Are you sure about that? Dipolomacy for the sake of disarmament with Libya goes back well before Bush was president. I think the move was more of an economic one - to bolster Libya's need to join in with the outside world.
Quote:
April 5, 1999: Libya hands over two suspects--each reportedly linked to Libyan intelligence--to Dutch authorities for trial in the bombing of Pam Am Flight 103.
Immediately following the handover, as well as France’s acknowledgement that Tripoli had cooperated with French officials investigating the UTA bombing, the Security Council suspends sanctions against Libya originally imposed in 1992.
May 1999: Libyan officials offer to eliminate their chemical weapons programs during secret talks with the United States, according to Martin Indyk, then assistant secretary of state. In a March 10, 2004 Financial Times article, Indyk reveals that U.S. officials insisted Libya reach a settlement with the Pan Am victims’ families, as well as accept responsibility for the bombing, before Washington negotiate with Libya about its chemical weapons.
http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/LibyaChronology.asp
Quote:
After the invasion of Iraq, when the US told Syria it was time to leave Lebanon, they suddenly left (despite not listening to similar calls prior to the invasion of Iraq).
I think this had more to do with the assassination of Rafik Hariri and the massive demonstrations in Lebanon.
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