Home | Community | Message Board

Magic-Mushrooms-Shop.com
This site includes paid links. Please support our sponsors.


Welcome to the Shroomery Message Board! You are experiencing a small sample of what the site has to offer. Please login or register to post messages and view our exclusive members-only content. You'll gain access to additional forums, file attachments, board customizations, encrypted private messages, and much more!

MagicBag.co Shop: All-In-One Bags That Don't Suck, Certified Organic All-In-One Grow Bags by Magic Bag, Contam-Resistant All-In-One Grow Bags

Jump to first unread post Pages: < Back | 1 | 2  [ show all ]
OfflineViveka
refutation bias
 User Gallery

Registered: 10/21/02
Posts: 4,061
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: The American dream is over [Re: zorbman]
    #5749465 - 06/14/06 12:06 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

I didn't say they didn't enjoy big runs while Clinton was in, I said they were plummeting while Clinton was still in.

Look at the chart here:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/nasdaq1986.html
See what's happening from 2000-2001, before Bush took office.

Look at this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1986.html

Look what's happening from '99-2001. Can we say Bubble?

My bigger point is that correlation does not equal causation. Clinton in office + growing economy does not equal Clinton and Dems grew the economy. The DOW leveling and Nasdaq plummeting while Clinton is still in office does not equal Clinton and Dems sabatoged the market.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Invisiblezorbman
blarrr
Male

Registered: 06/04/04
Posts: 5,952
Re: The American dream is over [Re: Viveka]
    #5749869 - 06/14/06 02:36 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

I would hardly describe that period as "plummeting". That one year period appears almost exactly like the period 98-99 on my chart after which the market took off. Markets do not go straight up or down. They can go up for a while and go through a consolidation phase after which they resume their upwards march. The stock market has actually been flat since Clinton left office.

I agree that presidents do get too much blame/credit for the economy. There are many other powerful forces at work. And there is a time lag between the initiation of new economic policies and when they are felt in the economy. But Bush is well into his Presidency and must accept his share of blame for a stagnant stock market and economy at this point.

I also agree with you that there is a bubble in the stock market. Let's take a look and see if we can find out what is constraining it from heading higher. Here are a couple of charts for you. (Apologies in advance for any difficulty viewing the first one. For some reason the white background didn't make the trip.)

Notice the overhead resistance going back to '00- every time the DOW hits 11,350 it gets smacked back down. That represents extremely strong technical resistance. The chart does not show the most recent smack down of the last couple of weeks.



This one is highly speculative and I don't want to get off on a tangent, but it is interesting none the less.



--------------------
“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”  -- Rudiger Dornbusch

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineViveka
refutation bias
 User Gallery

Registered: 10/21/02
Posts: 4,061
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: The American dream is over [Re: zorbman]
    #5750137 - 06/14/06 04:02 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

Well that second chart seems like a really contrived correlation since I'm not sure how they compared the DOW figure to the Peak Oil measurement. What are the numbers on the left, billions of barrels? Plus, there's only one potential point of correlation there, at the top. Maybe I'm misinterpreting it.

But I agree with you that it's very peculiar the market keeps hitting the same ceiling. Of course, we might need another several decades of chart to really start to get a good idea of the reason. But here's an idea: Maybe the reason the market keeps biting it at 11,350 is because that was the Apex. So whenever it reaches that height again, investor confidence falls because everyone's expecting it to drop off again. People are always looking in the rear view mirror and you can't overlook the power of expectation and belief in addition to all the economic factors. This pschological factor could be enough of an obstacle on its own.

Extras: Filter Print Post Top
Jump to top Pages: < Back | 1 | 2  [ show all ]

MagicBag.co Shop: All-In-One Bags That Don't Suck, Certified Organic All-In-One Grow Bags by Magic Bag, Contam-Resistant All-In-One Grow Bags


Similar ThreadsPosterViewsRepliesLast post
* the new american dream...
( 1 2 3 all )
uki 1,699 42 06/25/04 05:22 PM
by BleaK
* The European dream AntiMeme 682 8 10/02/04 05:04 PM
by zappaisgod
* The Irony of Clinton's Medical Situation Ancalagon 849 2 09/09/04 03:49 PM
by Phred
* Land of the free? In your fucking dreams, prisoner. Evolving 643 2 05/27/04 05:19 PM
by afoaf
* Bush Support Among Arab Americans Tumbles
( 1 2 all )
Zahid 2,070 29 08/28/04 06:49 PM
by Zahid
* 1 in 6 Americans have no health coverage carbonhoots 1,190 18 10/06/03 02:49 PM
by Phred
* Bill Clinton: Our First Black President. Larrythescaryrex 1,744 16 09/26/09 05:24 AM
by kidaihuan
* Clinton calls terror a U.S. debt to past
( 1 2 all )
Ellis Dee 3,656 25 01/01/02 01:49 AM
by Ellis Dee

Extra information
You cannot start new topics / You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled / BBCode is enabled
Moderator: Enlil, ballsalsa
2,157 topic views. 3 members, 1 guests and 7 web crawlers are browsing this forum.
[ Show Images Only | Sort by Score | Print Topic ]
Search this thread:

Copyright 1997-2024 Mind Media. Some rights reserved.

Generated in 0.022 seconds spending 0.007 seconds on 14 queries.