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Offlinegregorio
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The Kentucky Derby
    #5592552 - 05/05/06 01:35 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Stayed tuned for Gregorios complete analysis of the 132'nd run for the roses.


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Offlinegregorio
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Re: The Kentucky Derby [Re: gregorio]
    #5592670 - 05/05/06 02:23 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Heres a link to the Past Performances of the entrents for those who want to play along.

PDF format and you need the.Adobe reader.

Good luck.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2006/pps/06kentuckyderby.pdf


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Offlinegregorio
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Re: The Kentucky Derby [Re: gregorio]
    #5596653 - 05/06/06 01:01 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

This running of the kentucky boasts of field of 20 horses! Where doe we begin in our quest to pick a winner with such a large field?

Let's start by throwing out all of the horses that don't have a chance in hell of winning.

1. JAZEEL 30---1

2. STEPPENWOLFER 30---1

7. BOB AND JOHN 12---1

12. PRIVATE VOW 50---1

13. BLUEGRASS CAT 30---1

14. DEPUTY GLITTERS 50---1

15. SEASIDE RETREAT 50---1

16. CAUSE TO BELIEVE 50---1

19. STORM TREASURE 50---1

20. FLASHY BULL 50---1





Throw all of these out without reservations.


12. PRIVATE VOW 50---1

Private Vow was a tough choice to throw out right at the outset. His breeding suggests that he is going to like the extra distance of 1 1/4 mile. If you like longshots, maybe he will be worth a shot. But as for me, I. throwing him out.

So we have not cut the field of contenders down to half by eliminating 10 of them at the outset. Now lets take a look at the probably favorite and a couple of the other short priced contenders.


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Offlinegregorio
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Re: The Kentucky Derby [Re: gregorio]
    #5596738 - 05/06/06 01:33 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

18. BROTHERS DERIK 3---1

The early line and probable favorite; and for good reason. This is truly a magnificent horse. A potntial Triple Crown sweep for this fellow. He will have a greeat future in store for him.

But at 3---1 I can't see placing a wager on him. Chances are by post time he will be close to being the odds on favorite. I need more bang for my buck when playing the Derby so I am going to toss him out. If for some reason he goes off at 5---1 or higher, then I would play him, but that aint going to happen.

8. BARBARO 4---1

Another obvious contender but can't back him at this short price.

17. LAWYER RON 4---1

All I have got to say about this horse I would not back him at 50---1. What's up with this early line odds of 4---1?? Look elsewhere.


So three more are eliminated and now leaves us with the last 7.


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Offlinegregorio
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Re: The Kentucky Derby [Re: gregorio]
    #5596828 - 05/06/06 02:28 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

4. SINISTER MINISTER 12---1

His Bluegrass performance was very impressive. Winning by 12 lengths in wire-to-wire fassion while sporting a BSF of 116!

But that is the problem. Those figures are overstated because of the nature of his victory. He should be out in front fighting for the lead for a good part of the race but will fade terribly in the stretch. Looking elsewheres.

6. SHOWING UP 20---1

A lightly raced (3 races) and undefeated horse. He will lose his first race today.

3. KEYED ENTRY 30---1

Has shown some flashes of brilliance this year. Could make a legitmate run for the wire, but I'm not counting on it.

9. SHARP HUMOR 20---1

A speedster who will be fighting for the lead from the get go. If he can get out alone on the lead early he does have a chance. But I'm looking elsewhere.

Thats 4 more hores down with only 3 more left to go.


Edited by gregorio (05/06/06 03:42 AM)


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Offlinegregorio
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Re: The Kentucky Derby [Re: gregorio]
    #5596921 - 05/06/06 03:39 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

10. A.P. WARRIOR 15---1

Expect a good race from him today but he should fall short.

5. POINT DETERMINED 12---1

This Bob Baffert trained horse is scary. He has been steadily improving all nyear long and today just might be his day. Strong contender. Will those juicy odds of 12---1 still be there come post time?

11. SWEETNORTHERNSAINT.....10---1

If his current odds hold up this will be my pick. I will wager on him even if his odds drop down to 8-1.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: The Kentucky Derby [Re: gregorio]
    #5597083 - 05/06/06 07:18 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Solid analysis throughout. As a purely financial exercise I don't even bother trying to pick a winner when the field is this huge, too much strange shit happens. I just look for likely suspects and bet them across the board after throwing out favorites. Tourists bet the favorites and skew the odds. I just might go this way with your final seven and hope no knucklehead from the 50-1 group jumps up and bites me. That should secure a profitable afternoon.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: The Kentucky Derby [Re: gregorio]
    #5597198 - 05/06/06 08:34 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Although I don't quite get your love affair with the ..."saint". I will be stunned if the odds drop. I'm not that high on the "minister" either and the lightly raced "showing up" is not likely to handle the size of the field well.
As of this time, I'm looking to go with
AP Warrior
Point Determined
Keyed Entry
Sharp Humor
$10 across the BD on each
Maybe the Field too.


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: The Kentucky Derby [Re: zappaisgod]
    #5598127 - 05/06/06 04:26 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Fine pair of geniuses we are


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Offlinegregorio
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Re: The Kentucky Derby [Re: zappaisgod]
    #5599837 - 05/07/06 01:24 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:
As a purely financial exercise I don't even bother trying to pick a winner when the field is this huge, too much strange shit happens.




You got that right. There is something about the Derby though that forces me to just make a Win bet, something I rarely do if I decide to wager on some horses.

I think this was the downfall of Brother Derek today. He had a terrible trip (his post position didn't help either); he was forced to race wide for much of the race and was steadied twice!. This is who I ended up betting on.

Sweetnorthernsaint? I was going to bet on him but by the time I got down to the OTB his odds dropped too much for me to keep my interest. I can't believe he ended up being the favorite.

I was going to go with Private Vow at 35--1 but changed my mind at the last minute.

I lossed $50 but the Derby only comes around once a year and there is allways the Preakness...........


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OfflineInfrared
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Re: The Kentucky Derby [Re: gregorio]
    #5604808 - 05/08/06 12:16 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

i went and watched the race at the otb.... i won.... but i made like 6 different bets.. so i pretty much broke even :smirk:


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