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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: fresh313]
    #5562296 - 04/27/06 10:23 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

"No risk no reward".

Did you meet this Asian guy at a casino, because every time I go to a casino it seems to have about 60% asian men, most smoking heavily and scowling and losing money like crazy.

I had a stock broker tell me once "No guts no glory" and I believed him and sold my Occidental petroleum stock at 10 that was paying a 10% dividend, and bought stock options. The broker made lots as I madly traded stock options and ended up making a few $$ due to my skill as a trader and in spite of the high costs of trading. Had I instead just hung on to that boring OXY stock which is now 200+ not including all of those 10% dividends, I would have far more money with far less risk and certainly far less headaches. Active trading is basically a pain in the ass. Better to buy right and hold.

JMHO have fun trying to grab those cubs before mama tiger mauls you.


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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Offlinefresh313
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #5562347 - 04/27/06 10:39 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

yes, for the average john q public investor, holding a stock is the best way to go. a good trader can make exponentially more than a buy and holder. so u got in over your head probably, you have to spend a lot of time watching stocks , learning how to analyze and predict trends using technical anaylsis and for the very short term reading fundamental [news] and interpreting it properly is crucial. its a full time career, not a oh ill fuck around and trade a bit kind thing. i have not even looked at options. i know there are people that can make mad bank off them, but therye not for me, i dont even mess with the stock market anymore, too much manipulation, the people making the real bank are the institutions. you see though, the reason it can be manipulated is becuz some huge firm can throw way more money then u can at a stock and make it go up, then bounce out for a huge profit cuz they suckered thousands of people into buying the stock as its running. but with the currency market, i dont care if u got 10 million your just a blip on the screen , maybe u move it a few pips, but we're talking a trillion dollar market. nobody can manipulate it.
even warren buffet lost like a 100 millions or some crazy stack betting on a currency to fall. but as an active currency trader if u spend the time learning, u can make sick bank. its just about cutting your losers and riding your winners. everytime u make a trade u already have set how much your prepared to lose. the way people lose money is they let thier emotions take over. they ride a loser into the ground cuz its gotta go back up sometime right.. right ?? : P


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OfflineEquilibriuM
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: fresh313]
    #5562391 - 04/27/06 10:54 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

Communism;

A classless society with no exploitation. No state machine used by one section of the population to oppress another section. No need for professional armies or police forces. No use of production for profit or exchange. Society runs in accord with the principle: From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.


Bullshit definition (ie: commonly believed--but WRONG)
Rule of society by a single party which maintains a monopoly of political power and suppresses all opposition. Control of the economy via centralized bureaucratic planning.

Examples of bullshit definition: the former Soviet Union, China, Cuba, North Korea, etc.

Where has communism existed?
Nowhere. Communism, in the scientific sense of a classless society, has never existed.

Exception: A form of primitive communism existed within primitive communal societies in prehistoric times



ref. http://www.communism.org/


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HELP!!!!!!!!!


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: fresh313]
    #5562463 - 04/27/06 11:22 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

"i dont even mess with the stock market anymore, too much manipulation, the people making the real bank are the institutions. you see though, the reason it can be manipulated is becuz some huge firm can throw way more money then u can at a stock and make it go up, then bounce out for a huge profit cuz they suckered thousands of people into buying the stock as its running. but with the currency market, i dont care if u got 10 million your just a blip on the screen , maybe u move it a few pips, but we're talking a trillion dollar market. nobody can manipulate it."

Just because the currency market is large doesn't mean the dollar and therefore the dollar/euro and yen relationship can't be moved by a few words from the U.S. Federal Bank chairman. You have stated you don't follow the news, if I were trading currencies I would have a calendar of fed announcements, euro banker announcements, etc.
Big Mistake. The charts mean nothing if the news changes.

I have been fortunate to have ridden the real estate market up while you have apparently been trying to make a living as a stock and currency trader. If all you made last year was $ 4,500 on your currency trading, perhaps you need to be looking for a new career. In China, that would be a comfortable income, but in this country it is otherwise known as unemployment or welfare benefits. With a minimum wage of $ 6 at 40 hours per week and 50 weeks a year your income would be $ 12,000. How many hours a day do you spend watching the currency exchange rates and analyzing your next move? Time is money as they say.


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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Offlinefresh313
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #5565147 - 04/27/06 11:19 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)

news events are already accounted for in the chart b4 thier even announced, especially pre-planned events. read about technical analysis. read about international finance, read read read, and trade,trade trade, if you dont believe thats fine, but i speak from experience. if you ever traded currency youd see its about 90%+ technicals.


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InvisibleDiploidM
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: fresh313]
    #5566060 - 04/28/06 06:05 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

sure do [know what happens in China]. and i can solve thier problem. heres the solution. dont bitch.

If you lived in China, you wouldn't be allowed to read or post on the Shroomery. :shrug:


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Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.


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Offlinefresh313
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: Diploid]
    #5566209 - 04/28/06 08:21 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

welll i guess im not in chiiinnnaaa thennn


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: fresh313]
    #5566307 - 04/28/06 08:56 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

I agree that the market already follows what the fed will likely do at their meeting and often get it right. Sometimes it is pretty clear whether they will raise rates or not at any particular meeting. Right now I would say given inflation and the oil market and their current "we plan on stopping raising rates after one or two more 1/4% increases but don't count on it" statements leave a lot of room for uncertainty about how many more rate increases we will see over the next year or two. This uncertainty makes the chart and technical analysis less valid.

"News" is just that. The future. The unknown. Sometimes it is "big news" that could greatly affect things such as 9/11. Did your charts tell you on Sept 10th, 2001 that there would be planes hitting the World Trade Center buildings the next day? Did your charts show the markets being closed and stocks gapping lower? Stop loss orders didn't help you then did they? Right on past your stop loss order and way down there. Yikes. Shit happens.


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Anxiety is what you make it.


Edited by LunarEclipse (04/28/06 08:58 AM)


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Offlinefresh313
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #5566354 - 04/28/06 09:14 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

i trade very short term, like 2 - 6- hrs most times, so i these things dont affect me, im in and out, i can only predict the future that far ahead. my crystal ball can only show me so much. gaps only occur when the market closes so that'd only be apllicable if u hold over the weekend, which i dont.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: fresh313]
    #5566439 - 04/28/06 09:48 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

It's called day trading and most people who do it spend all day watching the computer screen and don't make much money because they are in and out all the time and end up with too much in trading costs.  Spreads and commissions.  There are better in and out things to do.  :tongue:

Crystal balls are great when they work.  On the days when they get broken not so great.  That's why long term buys and holds are good.  Your crystal ball only has to work once when you buy and once when you sell.  Plus, the government actually rewards people who buy a house and live in it for 2+years or buy a stock that they hold for 1+ year and sell at a gain by eliminating completely in the case of the house or reducing the taxes in the case of the stock long term capital gain!  Imagine that...

For me personally I am interested in the currency market because I am concerned about the potential for further dollar devaluation.  Given the recent weakness I might expect a bounce back up on the dollar before the next move down.  I wouldn't trade actively and would use zero leverage, but would try to time it such that I buy euros at the top of a dollar bounce.  Then wait.  If the dollar gets hammered again I would buy it back and wait.  Given recent price history it would seem the swings could be 3-5% in a month or two which is enough of a potential return to get my "interest".  I would expect to be in and out perhaps 6-12x in a year depending on the price action.  A little in and out is good.


--------------------
Anxiety is what you make it.


Edited by LunarEclipse (04/28/06 09:49 AM)


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Offlinefresh313
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #5566450 - 04/28/06 09:55 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

yes daytrading, i was talkin specifically about currency trading. daytrading is a whole nother beast, with sharper teeth and quicker bites.

ZERO LEVERAGE. i hope u have a few hundred thousand to throw down then dog, otherwise your making pennies for real.

nothing wrong with long term trades. thier for investors and not traders. just trade a longer time period chart thats all. add in whatever fundamentals u think will help your positioning.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: fresh313]
    #5567860 - 04/28/06 06:28 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)

Only a few hundred thousand?  I can get that out of petty cash.  :thumbup:  I thought you were talking real money.


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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Offlinefresh313
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #5569290 - 04/29/06 12:32 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

hah, aiight man. u got the bank then do it up. good luck with your trading friend.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: fresh313]
    #5569832 - 04/29/06 09:11 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

OK for sake of discussion about whether this currency trading makes sense. Say I have $ 100,000 in dollars earning 5% which means $5,000 a year in interest. If I think the dollar will be heading lower (after perhaps a technical bounce over the next few weeks?), should I:

A. Exchange the entire $ 100,000 of dollars and buy euros and hold and get approx. 2 1/2% interest so "lose" $ 2,500 a year in interest buy hope to make that back if the dollar goes lower from the exchange rate changing.

B. Keep the $ 100,000 earning 5% but buy a futures contract on euros leveraged 10:1.

My guess is A but if the cost of the futures contract and margin interest they charge is less than the $ 2,500 difference in interest earned between the dollar and euro then the answer is B.

By definition given the interest rate differential the dollar has to devalue by 2 1/2% vs. the euro for an equivalent 12 month return.

Any thoughts?


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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Offlinefresh313
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #5569875 - 04/29/06 11:08 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

you know i dont play long term so i dont have to worry about margin interest. im not sure what the deal , if they charge you interest of holding a position with the money they give you on leverage or not. seems like they would have to otherwise youd be tying up thier money.
what i would do is use leverage like 1:50 or even 1:100 [pending your calculations on the interest rate aganist your 5% MoneyMarket] something like that and hold for a month or so. u know its always going to correct, nothing just goes one way for a long period of time. its better to take your profits then get back in when the situation warrants taking another position. no need in commiting yourself to a position for a long period of time.

lemme take a look at the technicals of eur/usd...

yah i do believe a position aganist the usd is looking good right now
got the right shoulder upside formed of the head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart
just had a big run on the weekly and daily charts , gonna fall soon. good for about 300pips , lookin at like a month or two time period.

so for hypothetical situations sake.

say u got 1 lot = 100,000 dollars, cash or at leverage whichever
300 pips would make u 3,000 dollars. so thats a return of 3% in a month if it was no leverage at leverage of 10:1, thats a return of 30%.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: fresh313]
    #5570772 - 04/29/06 03:54 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

OK looking at the 2 year chart of USD/euro the current ratio is 0.7916 which in looking at the last big breakdown of the dollar below 0.80 occured Sept 04 - Jan 05 and the dollar dropped to a low of 0.73 and then rebounded. Initial support on the downside is at 0.78 which was resistance on the rebound from 0.73 and was broken through on May of 2005. Rebound took us to 0.82-0.86 trading range over the past year until recent drop. Right now is critical if we drop it will be to 0.78, if we bounce it could see 0.82 which is time to short. Short the ranch up to 0.84 should it get that high. 0.84 has become MAJOR resistance so any break above that should be with a tight stop.

That's my read. If I were to trade today I would set a 3% stop above the 0.7916 level and be out above that. If it continues to drop, either get out short term at 0.78, or wait intermediate term of 3-6 month to test 0.73. That represents a 10% gain which if it occurs within 3 months would be decent.

BUT in looking at the stock charts I think the Nasdaq is headed for a fall MSFT bad news and the market has been hitting it's head against the ceiling. Could be time to short the QQQQ...


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Anxiety is what you make it.


Edited by LunarEclipse (04/29/06 04:01 PM)


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OfflinePhred
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: LunarEclipse]
    #5570830 - 04/29/06 04:10 PM (17 years, 8 months ago)

This is all very interesting, gentlemen, but this forum is not for posting day trading strategies and/or currency arbitrage. It's for the discussion of politics, activism, and law.

If you're not going to address fresh313s points offered in his opening post, please don't post at all.



Phred


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Offlinefresh313
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: Phred]
    #5573031 - 04/30/06 02:23 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

hey its my thread , chill the funk out
currency trading is related to economics which is related to global finance, which is related to international politics.
its all connected.

maybe intelligent conversation is frowned upon in this forum, im not sure. dont post in here much.


Edited by fresh313 (04/30/06 02:30 AM)


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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: fresh313]
    #5573380 - 04/30/06 07:26 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

fresh313 said:
hey its my thread , chill the funk out





:lol:

It may be your thread but he is the moderator.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: American fuckuEnomicks [Re: fresh313]
    #5573445 - 04/30/06 08:24 AM (17 years, 8 months ago)

"currency trading is related to economics which is related to global finance, which is related to international politics."

If anything, the currencies of the world and the exchange rate differentials have recently become a much more major focus of politicians in the United States, China, Europe Japan etc...

As an example, the current administration has been pushing China to increase the value of it's currency to "make U.S. goods more competitive to export." Of course the flipside is that it also makes Chinese goods more expensive and who buys more from who? So why on earth would the U.S. want the average consumer to pay more for clothing, shoes, TVs, etc. etc. by forcing the yuan to rise in value if overall the U.S. consumers loses when the yuan gets revalued higher relative to the dollar. This seems a particularly bad idea when interest rates on housing and cars is moving higher, and oil prices are at an all time high.

The only argument that makes sense is that instead of just raising interest rates to combat inflation, the U.S. government is now making attempts to curb consumption in the U.S. and therefore inflation by increasing costs of goods such as Chinese products and oil to the American consumer. Of course, you could argue they don't want oil prices this high, and they only want to help the American exporting companies when the yuan gets revalued 30% higher(while increasing costs of all Chinese products to American consumers by 30% or more).

Granted, all of this isn't nearly as important to discuss as what somebody will do to their "crooked cop neighbor", but since it involves the entire world economy and the potential for politically imposed tariffs on Chinese products for "failure to comply" as already mentioned by the administration, perhaps it does deserve some attention.


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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