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OfflineShroomerious
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #5514095 - 04/13/06 10:32 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

I can do lots of math but as you just proved you don't. Can not continue with this. If someone else understands basic statistics or even has common logic please have a go at explaining.

I can't believe that you keep insisting that you have the same possibilities of getting heads 1 time with having already got heads 99 times and go for the 100th. Can't you see? At least accept that it was something you didn't know? I don't know why you are stuck in one coin. One coin has 50-50 but not after you have tossed 10 heads already. Doesn't your common logic say that tossing heads again is not very likely to happen. Listen, if you can't understand it at least accept it by reading some trustworthy material.

Pfffft

If you play roulette and you see that the red color has come up 13 consecutive times, isn't it a relatively safe bet to put your money in black? I have won lots of money doing just that! Only problem is that you need to have a big budjet going into the game so you can always get you money back whatever happens. Even if the lower possibility of 20 red straight comes up.


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Offlinekotik
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: Shroomerious]
    #5514747 - 04/14/06 03:40 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

lol wow this is getting out of hand.

when you flip a coin, you ALWAYS have a 50% chance.

now if you were to flip a coin 10 times, if you predict you know the outcome of ALL 10 of those flips, then to be right the first time would be 50%.  to be right the second time would be less, all the way to the 10th time.  Of course each time you get it right, your chances at getting them ALL right decreases, but that doesnt change the fact that for each individual coin, the chance is always 50%

you seem to be getting hostile over this, probably because you are having problems understanding it yourself?  :blush:


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No statements made in any post or message by myself should be construed to mean that I am now, or have ever been, participating in or considering participation in any activities in violation of any local, state, or federal laws. All posts are works of fiction.

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OfflineBlueCoyote
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: Shroomerious]
    #5514772 - 04/14/06 04:09 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

That is a very interesting problem and I would like to give right to both of you. FWG is right, that every single chance is 50/50.
And you are right, that the average outcome with unlimited throws will be 50/50.
So, if one experiment goes extremely fluctuated to one side (9 heads out of 10), the chances over a long period are, that a similar occurrence will happen to the other side (9 numbers out of 10), so in all, it will balance it out.
You can not say, when the out-balancing occurrence will happen, but it will :laugh:

Infinity is your friend :heart:


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Though lovers be lost love shall not  And death shall have no dominion
......................................................
"Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men."Martin Luther King, Jr.
'Acceptance is the absolute key - at that moment you gain freedom and you gain power and you gain courage'

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OfflineShroomerious
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: kotik]
    #5514914 - 04/14/06 06:59 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

I am getting hostile because you are braking my balls over something I have understood while still in school and a lot further in the university. I explained myself correctly and more than I should have. I have no doubt about that.

"One coin has 50-50 but not after you have tossed 10 heads already."

What more can I possibly say? I don't know why people here like to play with words. The original dissagreement was about this:

"You could flip a million coins and each time get heads"

I tried to point out the total possibilities of this happening and got attacked. It's not my fault that some of you people don't know further from the absolute basics. Anyone else would have immidiately understood me and wouldn't get stuck like that.


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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: Shroomerious]
    #5514944 - 04/14/06 07:26 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

I completely, immediately understood what it was that you were saying. However, you also said that, after a few throws, each individual flip is no longer 50/50. That is wrong, and my only point, the only one I have addressed, is that each flip of a coin is always 50/50.

As I said before, simple, and easy.

:headbang: :headbang: :headbang: :satansmoking:
Peace. :mushroom2:


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If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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OfflineShroomerious
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #5515013 - 04/14/06 08:05 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

But why think about the tenth flip as an individual? Ofcourse it is 50-50 but that doesn't matter because the possibilities affecting the outcome of the tenth flip are what they are, which is a lot less than 50%.


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Offlinekotik
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: Shroomerious]
    #5515064 - 04/14/06 08:19 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

What more can I possibly say? I don't know why people here like to play with words.




wise words  :thumbup:


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No statements made in any post or message by myself should be construed to mean that I am now, or have ever been, participating in or considering participation in any activities in violation of any local, state, or federal laws. All posts are works of fiction.

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Offlinefireworks_godS
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: Shroomerious]
    #5515084 - 04/14/06 08:24 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Shroomerious said:
But why think about the tenth flip as an individual? Ofcourse it is 50-50 but that doesn't matter because the possibilities affecting the outcome of the tenth flip are what they are, which is a lot less than 50%.




The possibilities affecting the outcome of the flip? Two sides of a coin, one possible outcome.

Your statistics for five, ten flips might predict the chances for each set of outcomes, but it does not specify which flip is going to have which outcome. Each individual flip is only determined by 50/50.

:headbang: :headbang: :headbang: :satansmoking:
Peace. :mushroom2:


--------------------
:redpanda:
If I should die this very moment
I wouldn't fear
For I've never known completeness
Like being here
Wrapped in the warmth of you
Loving every breath of you

:heartpump: :bunnyhug: :yinyang:

:yinyang: :levitate: :earth: :levitate: :yinyang:

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OfflineShroomerious
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: fireworks_god]
    #5515117 - 04/14/06 08:35 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

No, it doesn't predict a set of outcomes it oredicts what the outcome of the tenth flip would be. The possibilities of the flip be heads again as the previous 9 is not 50-50 because you HAVE to take ito consideration the past.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: Shroomerious]
    #5516243 - 04/14/06 02:35 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

You are mistaking two separate ideas: tossing a single coin once, and tossing a single coin multiple times.

Each time you flip a single coin, there are only 2 possibilities (heads, tails) so each possibility has a 50% chance of coming up.

If you toss a coin multiple times and look for a specific result, say heads, then each time you flip heads the chances will  be smaller. (you multiply the chances of each individual throw to get the chance of throwing heads N number of times)

Say, p = Px^N, where p is the probability of tossing a result x (given by probability Px) a total of N times.

ie:
chances of throwing heads once: 50% (p = .5^1)
chances of throwing heads twice: 25% (p = .5^2)
chances of throwing heads three times: 12.5% (p = .5^3)
chances of throwing heads four times: 6.25% (p = .5^4)

It only does that for repeated tosses where you are looking for a specific result. Each individual toss still has a 50% chance of turning up heads or tails.

Simple probability :wink:


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Offlinekotik
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: trendal]
    #5516319 - 04/14/06 03:02 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

i can't put my disbelief into words. and i still can't believe this has to be spelled out. isnt this material supposed to be covered by 10th grade these days?


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No statements made in any post or message by myself should be construed to mean that I am now, or have ever been, participating in or considering participation in any activities in violation of any local, state, or federal laws. All posts are works of fiction.

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InvisibleDiploidM
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: Shroomerious]
    #5516355 - 04/14/06 03:15 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

The possibilities of the flip be heads again as the previous 9 is not 50-50 because you HAVE to take ito consideration the past.

What if you replace the coin with a new one that hasn't been flipped yet and which has no history of 9 heads in a row?


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Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.

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Offlinekotik
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: Diploid]
    #5516510 - 04/14/06 04:22 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

lol. true, what if you wiped the coins "karma" or introduced a coin that didnt already have stored karma that somehow defied the laws of probability


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No statements made in any post or message by myself should be construed to mean that I am now, or have ever been, participating in or considering participation in any activities in violation of any local, state, or federal laws. All posts are works of fiction.

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OfflineShroomerious
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: trendal]
    #5517166 - 04/14/06 08:39 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

"You are mistaking two separate ideas: tossing a single coin once, and tossing a single coin multiple times."

I am not mistaking anything ffs. I explained it a million times. The only error I did was that I forgot to multiply the probabilities with the first 50-50 (1/2) when I was analytically showing how the outcome of the 3d coin possibilities can be calculated. A mistake I didn't do the first time. Anyway I still think that a few people here like to stick to things just for the sake of it. And you trendal, having red the entire post how can you possibly think I am mistaking these ideas. Actually I don't even know why I am still discussing it!!


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Offlineporcupine
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: Shroomerious]
    #5517361 - 04/14/06 09:59 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

if you have a fair coin, the odds of it being heads or tails are 50% on each flip. the previous history of the coin doesn't affect them. you can prove this yourself by flipping a coin a few times and then making a prediction about the next flip. after repeating this many times you will find that you are right about 50% of the time proving you cannot use a coin's history to predict its future. furthermore, in the real world if you flipped a coin 100 times and got heads each time it would make more sense to bet heads again then to bet tails, not the other way around. this is because 100 consecutative heads would likely indicate the coin wasn't fair and was somehow more likely to land on heads.

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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: trendal]
    #5517375 - 04/14/06 10:02 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Each individual toss still has a 50% chance of turning up heads or tails.



Actually, I believe each individual toss has a 100% chance of turning up heads or tails(or 99.9999...%, accounting for the tiny probability that it will land on its side).


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Offlineporcupine
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: porcupine]
    #5517380 - 04/14/06 10:03 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

If you play roulette and you see that the red color has come up 13 consecutive times, isn't it a relatively safe bet to put your money in black?


this statement shows that you dont understand probability. think about it, if it came up red 13 consecutive times, then wouldn't it make just as much sense to say its likely to come up red again?

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OfflineShroomerious
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: porcupine]
    #5517679 - 04/15/06 12:19 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

Lol, ofcourse not.... well, I will not try to explain it again to you. Probabilities say that it's highly unlikely that red will come up again and it is extremely understandable by common sense. I am sorry that you do not understand this and pretend you do.


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Offlineporcupine
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: Shroomerious]
    #5517693 - 04/15/06 12:25 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

so you're claiming you can predict the outcome of a coin flip based on the previous history of the coin with greater than 50% accuracy?

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OfflineShroomerious
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Re: why investigate prayer in the first place? [Re: porcupine]
    #5517726 - 04/15/06 12:38 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

Nope, I never said that. I only said that the overall posibilities of for example 3 heads in 3 tosses are 12.5%. Each individual coin ofcourse has 50-50 and it doesn't matter if it is the first or the last tossed. Stop trying to prove me wrong. Anyway I don't see this as a game of who is right and wrong. And the only reason you guys get stick in this one coin is 50-50 is most probably because you don't know more about statistics and possibilities.

+Look at what you claimed before:

"If you play roulette and you see that the red color has come up 13 consecutive times, isn't it a relatively safe bet to put your money in black?


this statement shows that you dont understand probability. think about it, if it came up red 13 consecutive times, then wouldn't it make just as much sense to say its likely to come up red again?"

You are confused but it's ok. We are talking about normal conditions here and not whether the ball has been twicked to stay at red. You could add-in that factor but we never talked about that.


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