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Offlinelonestar2004
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Registered: 10/03/04
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: Kamek]
    #5352896 - 03/01/06 09:44 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

you know this shit happens in Latin America and Asian countries all the time. (currency bankruptcy)

if it did happen here it would suck for us and all the other countries that we owe money, and give money too. but i bet we would be back in the game soon.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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OfflineKamek
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: lonestar2004]
    #5352930 - 03/01/06 09:54 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

If the US goes down i don't think they'd be getting back up any time soon... Look at Russia...


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: Kamek]
    #5353137 - 03/01/06 10:54 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

I have a mini forex account, and love to read about currencies.

my prediction is China, Japan, Korea, Singapore etc. will all let the Dollar Devalue against their currencies. (they will Eat lots of greenbacks) that will cut our debt in half by 2008. Coincidently right before the presidential elections.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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OfflinePrajna
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: lonestar2004]
    #5354264 - 03/01/06 05:18 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

Everything that skeptikos has said so far in this post is 100% accurate.  Thanks for explaining this issue better than I probably could have... :laugh: 

Brilliant move with the gold BTW...I just bought 12 ounces last week and I expect that before this year is over we will see at least 900 dollars an ounce on our investment.  :thumbup:

This is why we see the assualt on Hugo Chavez right now too, he has also threatened to convert to euro's and is currently setting up a south american institution for this purpose as we speak.  Saddam was the first to try it in 2000, he used it as a weopon, an economic bomb essentially... 

It was underestimated at the time but the States quickly realized that trading oil in Euro's might catch on and cause a reserve dollar dump off which to some extent it already has.  The prospect of a petroEuro seems to be something that the world is willing to lose money for.  Their giant reserves of forced U.S dollars are basically worthless anyway, the U.S is good at writing treasury notes but refuses to pay them back due to being broke.

It's my opinion that the U.S can and will try to stop this by all military means, but I am betting against the American dollar with gold futures because it is plainly obvious that they will probably fail.

I would advise anyone reading this to take it VERY seriously and do the reasearch, and protect yourselves accordingly...  Especially if you are an American.

A couple hours of google searching should be sufficient enough to convince you of it's truth.

Familiarise yourself with the fiat currency to start with, and then look up the bourse.  It will give you a foundation to understand some of the jargon...


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Offlinewilshire
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: psilomonkey]
    #5354278 - 03/01/06 05:26 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

The value of the dollar is based on how much people want dollars and how many dollars there are available

true.... but the rest of what you said isn't quite so.

currency tends to confuse people, all the more so when we're dealing with international trade.

so there's america, europe, and iran. the iranians trade oil for american and european goods. the americans trade american goods for european goods and iranian oil. the europeans trade european goods for american goods and iranian oil. this is what matters. as long as everyone is still producing, selling, and buying goods, it doesn't matter what the medium of exchange is.

the value of the dollar is not backed by the fact that you can buy oil with it. it's backed by the fact that you can buy american goods with it. it doesn't matter if the iranians stop taking dollars unless they also stop buying american goods. if they stop taking dollars, but they still want american goods, they're going to have to buy them with euros from europeans, who will buy them with dollars from americans.

the iranians don't buy a lot of american goods as it is. they use their dollars to purchase from their other trade partners, and those dollars eventually get spent buying american goods. if they don't take dollars for oil, and use euros instead, it will only mean that everyone who would have otherwise had dollars to spend will not... there goes the oversupply problem. if they want american goods, they'll have to get some dollars to pay for them... perhaps by selling us the iranian crude they bought (it really doesn't matter).

do you see this? the demand for the dollar is ultimately backed by the demand for american goods.


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OfflineSkeptikos
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: wilshire]
    #5356686 - 03/02/06 08:45 AM (17 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

wilshire said:
The dollar is held up by it's exclusive use as the currency of crude petroleum purchases

no it isn't.



Why do you deliberately misrepresent what I said by omission? I said, "The dollar is held up by it's exclusive use as the currency of crude petroleum purchases, and also by U.S. DEBT exports and purchases of foreign goods." "... the purchases of U.S. debt by those who export to the U.S. in order to keep their goods being bought by Americans are at record levels." Notice the use of the word 'and.' Prior to that, I also stated, "when major players in the world economy stop using dollars for major purchases or stop accepting them for purchases, the demand for dollars will drop. If a currency is not inherently valuable and gets it's value as a medium of exchange, when people decrease their use of it and hence their demand for it, the currency will drop in value."

Quote:

like i said, the dollar is held up by US exports.



Like I said, "America's largest export is debt." Apparently we are both correct. I also said, "U.S. imports of goods vs. exports of goods are at record levels." This is in reference to the largest trade deficit in the history of the world! In order to help keep our currency strong, foreigners buy up our monetized debt. Should they decide to drop that debt it if it is no longer advantageous to them, they will effectively increase the quantity of dollars in circulation. They can also just not refinance the U.S. government's debt after redeeming their notes when they become due. This will necessitate a raise in interest rates in order to attract buyers for the debt, or just good 'ol printing up of dollars. The new Fed chairman, Bernanke, has stated that he would even use helicopters to drop money all over the country if he felt it necessary (shades of Wiemar Germany - get you wheelbarrow now before the price goes up).

Quote:

the american dollar is not backed by foreign crude.



You are correct, and I never said it was. The U.S. dollar is backed by NOTHING, except people's desire to use it.

Quote:

the only reason you can use a dollar to buy foreign crude is because that foreign crude producer knows he can spend dollars to buy american exports (or sell his dollar to someone else who knows the same thing).



The petro dollar arrangement is a result of an agreement between the U.S. government to support the House of Saud in exchange for the Saudis accepting only U.S. dollars in exchange for oil. Again, America's largest export is DEBT. Foreigners accept dollars for the same reason most people use Windows, it's the way things have been since they can remember and everyone else is doing it. The roots of this go back to 1944, when 730 delegates from 44 nations met in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The countries agreed on fixed range of monetary exchange based upon gold. Here's the neat part, the U.S., being the largest holder of gold in the world, having the strongest economy with the largest industrial base and having a set relationship of dollar to gold ($35 an ounce) had set up the dollar to be the de facto reserve currency. Foreigners put their faith in the dollar, 'knowing' dollars could be redeemed for gold. This situation persisted until 1971 when Nixon slammed the gold 'window' shut by stopping the direct convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold. By this time the dollar had become firmly entrenched as the reserve substitute for gold the world over. However, there is no logical reason to suppose that this situation will persists in perpetuity.

The dollar is held up by people's desire to hold and use it vs. the supply in circulation (the old 'supply and demand,' ECON 101). The things that I referred to have great influence on the supply of dollars in circulation and people's desire to use them. When enough people's desires change we will see changes in monetary relationships.


--------------------
Sincerely,

Skeptikos


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OfflinePrajna
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: Skeptikos]
    #5357397 - 03/02/06 12:58 PM (17 years, 11 months ago)

:thumbup:

I can't understand why the average american can't grasp this, but it is true.  Your major export to the world is your own debt...


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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: Prajna]
    #5435731 - 03/23/06 07:43 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Launch of Iranian oil trading hits wall
Oil exchange unlikely to begin till at least midyear

JOHN PARTRIDGE INVESTMENT REPORTER
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
Printer Friendly version


As the nuclear standoff pitting Iran against the West continues, some conspiracy theorists are more focused on another plan that the Middle Eastern nation is pursuing.

But they are jumping the gun if they still figure Iran is within days of launching a new international oil exchange that would sell its own and other Middle Eastern oil producers' black gold in euros rather than U.S. dollars -- and which, the theory goes, could ultimately torpedo the greenback and the U.S. economy.

Despite repeated reports over the past 18 months or so that the planned bourse would finally open for business on March 20, 2006 -- and go head to head with the New York Mercantile Exchange and the ICE Futures Exchange in London -- the start date has been postponed by at least several months and maybe more than a year.

"In the middle of 2006, we are able to start the bourse," Mohammad Asemipur, special adviser on the project to Iran's Oil Minister, said when reached in Tehran. The plan is to trade petrochemical products first, with a crude oil contract coming last, a rollout that likely will take three years, he said.

"Oh, crikey, it's at a much earlier stage than people would think," said British consultant Chris Cook, who claims credit for coming up with the idea for the exchange in the first place and is a member of the consortium headed by the Tehran Stock Exchange that is charged with bringing the project to life.

"You can rest assured, there will not be a crude oil contract, Gulf-based, in my opinion, within a year -- and that would be really pushing it," Mr. Cook, a former director of ICE's predecessor, the International Petroleum Exchange, said when reached in Scotland.

The electronic exchange is to be located on Kish Island in the Persian Gulf, an Iranian duty- and tax-free zone.

There has been far less talk about the planned bourse in the mainstream media than on the Internet, particularly on websites aimed at gold bugs and other economic conspiracy theorists.

The theory is that all trades through the new bourse would be made in euros, not the U.S. dollar, which for decades has been the world's primary reserve currency, as well as the one in which oil and most other commodities have been priced. As a result, European nations and other countries, especially Middle East oil producers, tired of having to buy billions of now weakening greenbacks to pay for their energy purchases, would no longer have to do so.

This, the conspiracy theorists contend, would knock the stuffing out of the U.S. currency and hasten the decline and fall of the American Empire, all the while allowing Iran to stick it to the Great Satan.

But, the theory continues, Washington will pre-empt all this by using Iran's nuclear ambitions as a pretext for attacking the country.

Kamal Daneshyar, chairman of Iran's Majlis [parliamentary] Energy Commission reportedly told the Iranian Students News Agency in December that the exchange would at first operate in both dollars and euros, but gradually move to the European currency exclusively. He was also quoted as saying that this would enable Iran to get even with the U.S. for the economic damages it has inflicted on the Islamic republic.

Dr. Asemipur, meanwhile, was noncommittal on the currency question, saying market participants, not the Iranian government, would make the decision. He also denied the planned bourse could harm the U.S. economy.

Mr. Cook dismissed the idea that Iran's goal is to use the bourse to sabotage the greenback. "I have a technical term for that," he said. "Bollocks!"

As for trading oil in euros, he said the Iranians likely would find it very difficult, at least in the next several years. "Basically, there aren't enough euros in circulation, and nor are there likely to be," he said.

Mr. Cook cited a recent article on Hong Kong-based Asia Times Online by William Engdahl, who specializes in the geopolitics of oil.

"For the euro to begin to challenge the reserve role of the U.S. dollar, a virtual revolution in policy would have to take place in Euroland," Mr. Engdahl wrote. "First the European Central Bank . . . would have to surrender power to elected legislators. It would then have to turn on the printing presses and print euros like there was no tomorrow."

A full challenge to the U.S. dollar as the world central bank reserve currency, Mr. Engdahl added later, would entail a "de facto declaration of war on the 'full-spectrum dominance' of the United States today," and that is something no country or group of countries is yet willing to launch.

http://www.workopolis.com/servlet/Content/fasttrack/20060314/RIRAN14?section=Energy


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OfflineTheCow
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: Skeptikos]
    #5435867 - 03/23/06 08:30 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

You keep explaining that if people dont want dollars, the US economy will fail. This is obvious, you have yet to show a link between Iran accepting Euro's and the fall of the US economy. You are sidestepping the main issue in favor of sensationalism.


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InvisibleRogues_Pierre
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: TheCow]
    #5437308 - 03/24/06 06:37 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Obviously, if no one accepts the US dollar, then all economies will fail except the US economy.


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Edited by Rogues_Pierre (03/24/06 09:59 AM)


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InvisibleRogues_Pierre
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: Rogues_Pierre]
    #5437770 - 03/24/06 10:07 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)



--------------------


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OfflineSkeptikos
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: TheCow]
    #5445426 - 03/26/06 09:54 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

TheCow said:
You keep explaining that if people dont want dollars, the US economy will fail. This is obvious, you have yet to show a link between Iran accepting Euro's and the fall of the US economy.



No single event will bring about the fall of the US economy, though a single watershed event may mark the beginning of the fall. There has been a long history of those in positions of political power and politically connected businesses in our country betraying our country for personal gain or political expediency. There is also an apparent tendency for people to ignore warnings while they enjoy the moment. People's time horizons tend to encompass mainly their own life experiences, history may be learned but it is seldom learned from.

Quote:

You are sidestepping the main issue in favor of sensationalism.



No, I am expanding on the topic to bring awareness to people who may not prefer to plant their heads in the sand. The US economy has been placed in a very precarious position, if you and others ignore history and economic facts, you do so at your own peril and that of your countrymen. It is foolish to think that we can continue upon our present course indefinitely without repercussions.


--------------------
Sincerely,

Skeptikos


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InvisibleLuddite
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Registered: 03/23/06
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: Skeptikos]
    #5452662 - 03/28/06 07:21 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Just about every country in the world invests in the USA. I doubt that these investors would want to lose money on their investments. A lot of arabs invest in the USA, too.


Edited by Luddite (03/28/06 07:23 PM)


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InvisibleLuddite
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Re: Iran's upcoming Euro Oil Bourse [Re: Luddite]
    #5452688 - 03/28/06 07:29 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)



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