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Diploid
Cuban


Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
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Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle
#5423309 - 03/20/06 08:46 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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This is really good news if you're into ham radio, bad news if you run an electrical grid. 
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http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases
2006-5 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 6, 2006
Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle BOULDER?The next sunspot cycle will be 30-50% stronger than the last one and begin as much as a year late, according to a breakthrough forecast using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Predicting the Sun's cycles accurately, years in advance, will help societies plan for active bouts of solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power systems.
The scientists have confidence in the forecast because, in a series of test runs, the newly developed model simulated the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98% accuracy. The forecasts are generated, in part, by tracking the subsurface movements of the sunspot remnants of the previous two solar cycles. The team is publishing its forecast in the current issue of Geophysical Research Letters.
?Our model has demonstrated the necessary skill to be used as a forecasting tool,? says NCAR scientist Mausumi Dikpati, the leader of the forecast team at NCAR?s High Altitude Observatory that also includes Peter Gilman and Giuliana de Toma.
-----Understanding the cycles -----
The Sun goes through approximately 11-year cycles, from peak storm activity to quiet and back again. Solar scientists have tracked them for some time without being able to predict their relative intensity or timing.
Forecasting the cycle may help society anticipate solar storms, which can disrupt communications and power systems and affect the orbits of satellites. The storms are linked to twisted magnetic fields in the Sun that suddenly snap and release tremendous amounts of energy. They tend to occur near dark regions of concentrated magnetic fields, known as sunspots.
The NCAR team?s computer model, known as the Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model, draws on research by NCAR scientists indicating that the evolution of sunspots is caused by a current of plasma, or electrified gas, that circulates between the Sun's equator and its poles over a period of 17 to 22 years. This current acts like a conveyor belt of sunspots.
The sunspot process begins with tightly concentrated magnetic field lines in the solar convection zone (the outermost layer of the Sun?s interior). The field lines rise to the surface at low latitudes and form bipolar sunspots, which are regions of concentrated magnetic fields. When these sunspots decay, they imprint the moving plasma with a type of magnetic signature. As the plasma nears the poles, it sinks about 200,000 kilometers (124,000 miles) back into the convection zone and starts returning toward the equator at a speed of about one meter (three feet) per second or slower. The increasingly concentrated fields become stretched and twisted by the internal rotation of the Sun as they near the equator, gradually becoming less stable than the surrounding plasma. This eventually causes coiled-up magnetic field lines to rise up, tear through the Sun's surface, and create new sunspots.
The subsurface plasma flow used in the model has been verified with the relatively new technique of helioseismology, based on observations from both NSF? and NASA?supported instruments. This technique tracks sound waves reverberating inside the Sun to reveal details about the interior, much as a doctor might use an ultrasound to see inside a patient.
-----Predicting Cycles 24 and 25 -----
The Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model is enabling NCAR scientists to predict that the next solar cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5% of the visible surface of the Sun. The scientists expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about 6 to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start. Cycle 24 is likely to reach its peak about 2012.
By analyzing recent solar cycles, the scientists also hope to forecast sunspot activity two solar cycles, or 22 years, into the future. The NCAR team is planning in the next year to issue a forecast of Cycle 25, which will peak in the early 2020s.
?This is a significant breakthrough with important applications, especially for satellite-dependent sectors of society,? explains NCAR scientist Peter Gilman.
The NCAR team received funding from the National Science Foundation and NASA?s Living with a Star program. NCAR?S primary sponsor is the National Science Foundation. Opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
-------------------- Republican Values: 1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you. 2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child. 3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer. 4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.
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daimyo
Monticello

Registered: 05/13/04
Posts: 7,751
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Re: Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle [Re: Diploid]
#5423715 - 03/20/06 10:22 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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"The Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model"
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"I have sworn upon the altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man."
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trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle [Re: Diploid]
#5423760 - 03/20/06 10:32 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Great. Just when I get done watching "Perfect Disaster: Solar Storm" on Discovery
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero


Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
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Re: Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle [Re: Diploid]
#5428710 - 03/22/06 05:06 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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I wonder how long before somebody claims that mankind is the cause... couldn't be a natural occurance... I mean, sunspot activity never gets this bad... mankind must have caused it somehow!
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
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trendal
J♠


Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle [Re: Seuss]
#5429349 - 03/22/06 10:22 AM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Seuss I know you are refering to the Global Warming bit, but I think your insistance that humans "might" not be causing it is rather silly.
So let me ask a few questions:
Are humans adding to the concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases through our activities - yes or no?
Do greenhouse gases trap solar energy in the Earth's atmosphere - yes or no?
While I certainly do not think that humans are the sole cause of GW, I do think it is painfully obvious that we are one of the causes.
I don't see how you can argue against that. Especially if you answer yes to the above two questions.
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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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Seuss
Error: divide byzero


Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 2 months, 20 days
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Re: Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle [Re: trendal]
#5430147 - 03/22/06 02:07 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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1. Yes 2. Probably based upon models, but this is debatable.
Is the sun putting out more heat today than it was two hundred years ago?
Is the solar system in a warmer part of space today than it was two hundred years ago?
Has the Earth undergone massive climate changes in the past without help from humans?
Will the Earth undergo massive climate changes in the future, even without the help from humans?
Does the Earth go through massive climate changes on a fairly regular basis?
Would the global climate be changing today if humans were not around?
I use climate change rather than global warming. Nobody knows where this is going to end up... boiling hot or freezing cold or in between... all we know is that things are different today than they were a hundred years ago when we started to record the weather. What we don't know is if this is a localized event over a few hundred years, part of a larger trend over a few thousand years, predictable or unusual. I find it a huge mistake to assume that humans are the cause of global warming... even the term global warming is misused. I'm not saying that humans are not responsible... I don't know... nor does anybody else. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if we have screwed up the climate and we will pay for it... but proof is required before I will state what I believe to be true as a fact... and simply put, there is NO PROOF, only speculation. As long as people continue to speculate, I will continue to play the devil's advocate and remind them that they don't know any more than I do.
-------------------- Just another spore in the wind.
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daussaulit
Forgetful

Registered: 08/06/02
Posts: 2,894
Loc: Earth
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Re: Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle [Re: Seuss]
#5430203 - 03/22/06 02:20 PM (17 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Seuss said: I wonder how long before somebody claims that mankind is the cause
While the storms is happening, I wonder how long before somebody claims that its the apocalypse.
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