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OfflineSneezingPenis
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Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near
    #5423080 - 03/20/06 07:58 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I just bought this book by Raymond kurzweil. I had posted something before regarding this, but I didnt really understand it, and no one was really interested.

So as not to skew the views of others, I will let Wikipedia take it from here, and then we can discuss the implications, or the nay sayers can call bullshit if they so wish.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

Now, some of it sounds a little Isaac Asimov(ish), and while I havent gotten far in the book, I atleast respect and understand the concept of the coming of the singularity, and I think that Ray Kurzweil has some very definitive proof.

If anything, look at the graph on the link which graphs 15 models of evolution and what they considered milestones in technological evolution.

basically, the main focus of Kurzweil was to show the exponential curve of evolution, of any system.

At a seminar on the 50th anniversary of the discovery of DNA, they asked the speakers, including crick himself, about what they thought the next 50 years of technological expansion will go, primarily in regards to nanotechnology, and every one of them claimed that nanotechnology was atleast 100 years away.

Ray Kurzweil agreed that it was 100 years away, relative to our current speed of technological discovery, but in accordance with the law of accelerating returns, we will make 100 years of discovery (relevant to present state) in the next 20 years.


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InvisibleMushmanTheManic
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5423512 - 03/20/06 09:36 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Ray Kurzweil and the Transhumanists seem to often be very over optimistic. During the seventies, some projected that by the year 2000 life extension pills would be cheap, effective, and readily available. Unfortunately, death is trickier than we expected.

With that said, I still am a big fan of Ray Kurzweil and other Transhumanists. While they may be too optimistic, the exponential acceleration GRIN (Genetic, Robotic, Information, Nano) technologies cannot be denied.

"Engineer your evolution"
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OfflineSneezingPenis
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: MushmanTheManic]
    #5423678 - 03/20/06 10:16 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

right, I agree that the tranhumanists are overly optomistic at times, but what I really wanted to focus on with this discussion is that many of us here will probably live to see the hardcore exponential leap of technology.

i think that much is proven, and not in anyway overly optomistic. I believe that over the course of the next 20 years, we will advance atleast 100 years, relative to our current trajectory of GRIN developments.


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InvisibleMystikMushroom
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5423966 - 03/20/06 11:09 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

But, at some point humanity will either have to merge with technology or become subservient to it. It's just a matter of time...


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OfflineSneezingPenis
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: MystikMushroom]
    #5424089 - 03/20/06 11:40 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Kurzweil believes that the day will come when there is no distinction between the biological and the technological. I think he has put the date at 2032, or something near that.


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InvisibleMystikMushroom
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5424105 - 03/20/06 11:45 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I see sooner....i see an exponential increase in the very fabric of time these days...


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InvisibleMushmanTheManic
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: MystikMushroom]
    #5424286 - 03/21/06 01:03 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

DARPA is working on re-engineering cellular respiration and ATP production, which currently is a very ineffiecent process. DARPA's goal is to be able to have a person run for fifteen minutes on one breath.
Some crazzzzy shit.

They're also working on exoskeleton armor and some other fun stuff.


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OfflineGrok
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: MushmanTheManic]
    #5424788 - 03/21/06 11:14 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I think we have poor foresight in this matter. You can't change one thing, especially in an incredibly complex system such as a human body, without changing a multitude of others that are nearly impossible to predict. There will be all sorts of problems if we try to engineer ourselves. Its fuckin crazy. That stuff is best left to itself - seems its done a pretty good job so far.


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OfflineSneezingPenis
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: Grok]
    #5425322 - 03/21/06 01:29 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

"everyone takes the limits of his own vision for the limits of the world" - Schopenhauer


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OfflineSneezingPenis
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5425503 - 03/21/06 02:03 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I dont think prediction of the future is possible nor feasible, yet people can make an inferrence from previous known patterns of a systems behaviour.

I think Kurzweil (and others) have done an air-tight job of proving that we are on the verge of the seemingly vertical leap of technologically exponential growth.
Now what this boom will lead to can only be speculated about. Being optomistic, the tranhumanists have always put faith in the future of science and its somewhat promised wonders. For all we know, we could usher in the apocalypse.

I think the focus of creating an AI which can pass the Turing test, could also be applied to spirituality ourselves.
Imagine a computer, or a program which was aware of its own source code? and could manipulate it however it pleased to change gears, or work faster and in turn create its next generation.
How is that any different from ourselves? beyond the ability to speculate (Is there a God?), we still are trying to figure out how to access our own source code (human genome project, brain mapping). This is the next step of evolution which Kurzweil is talking about: the mapping, understand, and access to an intrinsic source code. That is what the beginning of the Singularity is.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5428502 - 03/22/06 01:15 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Imagine a computer, or a program which was aware of its own source code?

what do you mean by "aware"?


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: raytrace]
    #5428798 - 03/22/06 06:49 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

> what do you mean by "aware"?

Oh sure, take a perfectly good statement and ruin it with an excellent question.  :grin:

I wrote a computer program that was aware of it's source code.  The compiled binary was encoded with a hamming code for error correction.  When run, a small stub would hook int 1 (intel 8088 debug interrupt).  When an instruction was fetched, int 1 would trap, and the stub would decode the instruction asserting the hamming parity checks.  If anybody tried to modify the program, before or during execution, the hamming asserts would fail.  If possible the code would correct the error, other wise it would abend.

Just how aware is aware... a very debatable topic without a good answer.  (At least I have not heard a good answer yet...)


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Invisiblepsyka
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: Seuss]
    #5429704 - 03/22/06 12:09 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

What words would be needed to fit your condition of a "good" definition?

How aware are you? ... That is how aware a program would need to be in order to suit Kurzweil's AI model. I think his scenario is more than plausible, and if you don't ignore new technology we're well on our way there. Afraid or not, it'll be a trip.


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InvisibleMystikMushroom
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: psyka]
    #5430685 - 03/22/06 04:21 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

The internet is already "aware" in some rudimentary sense. It can re-route data if a signal path is closed. Packet-forwarding could be seen as an emergent technology that eventually gave rise to more complex and intuitive systems.

*Pondering*


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Offlineunbeliever
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: MystikMushroom]
    #5431071 - 03/22/06 05:46 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I dunno. We went from horse & buggy to cars and planes in a very short period. Then a pause and some space exploration, mostly just robots after the initial manned flights to the moon. Science in some areas has seemed to stagnate (WTF ARE MY FLYING CARS AND JET PACKS???)... though it has progressed tremendously in other areas.. Yay bunker buster nuclear bombs..


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InvisibleMystikMushroom
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: unbeliever]
    #5431691 - 03/22/06 08:26 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Necessity is the mother of invention!

Untill we NEED flying cars, and they can be produced cheaper than what is/was already being used...we won't have em'.

Just imagine the problems of operating a highway in 3-dimensions in the sky instead of just in 2 like a regular road.

Oh man it would be a stunning example of Darwin's natural selection to say the very least!!!!!


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OfflineSneezingPenis
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: Seuss]
    #5432647 - 03/23/06 12:25 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
> what do you mean by "aware"?

Oh sure, take a perfectly good statement and ruin it with an excellent question.  :grin:

I wrote a computer program that was aware of it's source code.  The compiled binary was encoded with a hamming code for error correction.  When run, a small stub would hook int 1 (intel 8088 debug interrupt).  When an instruction was fetched, int 1 would trap, and the stub would decode the instruction asserting the hamming parity checks.  If anybody tried to modify the program, before or during execution, the hamming asserts would fail.  If possible the code would correct the error, other wise it would abend.

Just how aware is aware... a very debatable topic without a good answer.  (At least I have not heard a good answer yet...)




I think you are confusing program function with awareness still. I could create a circuit connected to a doorknob which needs a specific frequency to discharge its capacitors and if not, will shock the living shit out of anyone not whistling a precise pitch who trys to turn the knob on the door.
While it is protecting itself and its primary function, it is still an unaware, servant to function.


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InvisibleMystikMushroom
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5432678 - 03/23/06 12:35 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

psilocyberin said:
Quote:

Seuss said:
> what do you mean by "aware"?

Oh sure, take a perfectly good statement and ruin it with an excellent question.  :grin:

I wrote a computer program that was aware of it's source code.  The compiled binary was encoded with a hamming code for error correction.  When run, a small stub would hook int 1 (intel 8088 debug interrupt).  When an instruction was fetched, int 1 would trap, and the stub would decode the instruction asserting the hamming parity checks.  If anybody tried to modify the program, before or during execution, the hamming asserts would fail.  If possible the code would correct the error, other wise it would abend.

Just how aware is aware... a very debatable topic without a good answer.  (At least I have not heard a good answer yet...)




I think you are confusing program function with awareness still. I could create a circuit connected to a doorknob which needs a specific frequency to discharge its capacitors and if not, will shock the living shit out of anyone not whistling a precise pitch who trys to turn the knob on the door.
While it is protecting itself and its primary function, it is still an unaware, servant to function.




HM...lol, suppose we're not really aware and just servant to some function we can't see or understand by the limitations of our logical/rational mind?

Interestante'....hmmmm  :wink:


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Offlinecupevampe
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5433082 - 03/23/06 06:28 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

All this very much links to Terence Mckenna true hallucinations about 2012, singularity and so on.
What do you think about mckenna's findings?
I really love him, he's inspired me so many times, too bad he's dead!


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Edited by cupevampe (03/23/06 06:33 AM)


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5433512 - 03/23/06 09:32 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

If the current hype about "peak oil" is to be believed, it would seem that such a crisis would prevent us from ever reaching the singularity.

Still I'm in love with the concept, and I really dig Mckenna. It amazes me how much hype about 2012 has spread over the last few years. I even meet people in real life who mention it in passing. A self-fulfilling prophecy perhaps?


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Offlineunbeliever
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: Revelation]
    #5433913 - 03/23/06 10:55 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Revelation said:
If the current hype about "peak oil" is to be believed, it would seem that such a crisis would prevent us from ever reaching the singularity.

Still I'm in love with the concept, and I really dig Mckenna. It amazes me how much hype about 2012 has spread over the last few years. I even meet people in real life who mention it in passing. A self-fulfilling prophecy perhaps?




Actually, peak oil could actually force the singularity. We've been dependant upon oil, a fairly inefficient power source, for quite some time. Tie this to the capitalistic nature of the world economy and any other competing energy sources are stagnated. But remove the oil and who knows what may develop. Cold fusion? Something else entirely?


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Offlinefresh313
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: unbeliever]
    #5436743 - 03/24/06 12:12 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

"In futures studies, a technological singularity represents an "event horizon" in the predictability of human technological development past which present models of the future cease to give reliable or accurate answers, following the creation of strong artificial intelligence or the amplification of human intelligence. Futurists predict that after the Singularity, humans as they exist presently will cease to be the dominating force in scientific and technological progress, replaced with posthumans, strong AI, or both, and therefore all models of change based on past trends in human behavior will be obsolete."

i dont know what his timeline is here, but the human brain will beat computers for at least another century.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5436756 - 03/24/06 12:17 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

posted by: Brian Oblivion
13-10-2003, 19:30
Please forgive the length of my "treaties" here. This is a very complex issue, and I have had the pleasure of working in neural simulation in the past.
Swayne, AlphaNumeric and Luminary have made some excellent points.
All computers, except for the most exotic, are based on the Von Neumann architecture. I see this as a major drawback to attempting to implement a system which can parallel the functions of the human brain. For one thing, the brain is a massively parallel processing device. Computers utilize the Von Neumann architecture, but do so in a way that processes are time sliced. Allowing each process to "seem" that they are being performed in parallel.

In an attempt to flesh this problem out a bit more, let's look at this from the point of view of the human brain trying to solve the problem in the way that a modern day computer would. Since the majority of computers have one single processor (percentage wise), let's start from there.

To begin, let's take one neuron (i.e., a single CPU) and attempt to perform one global event (global within reason) occurring within the brain. To do so, that neuron would need to be continually reset to the next message passing path along multiple axons, across multiple "implied" neural strata, and simulate carrying messages across "simulated" neuron communities, and on to other "simulated" neuron communities. Additionally, at each step, the "habits" acquired by the neuron [in line] to be simulated would need to be taken into account. As well as the "wiring" that had occurred from that neuron to its neighbors. All of these factors (i.e., each neuron is "unique" rather than "generalized") must be taken into account to simulate this one "global event" within the human brain. And all though out this redefinition of our single neuron, our simulation would requires that the event cascade correctly across this vast network remain stable and within context of the neighboring events.

That is a lot to ask one lowly neuron to do. It also assumes that we have faithfully re-created the network, step by step, taken into account concurrent changes taking place in other parallel neural communities, and finally arrived at a successful simulated state for the entire matrix. To further complicate matters, not all neurons are equal. Neurons tend to be specialized for the given task that they perform. So, the very nature of this lowly neuron, that we are using for this simulation, would need to be able to change its nature. Its neurochemistry would need to be modified somewhat, depending on the requirements of the specific neuron that it was acting in behalf of.

But, even if we were able to successfully achieve this simulation, because this is not really occuring in parallel, the true concurrentness of the system's state never truly existed. If we were modeling a thought, the thought never really existed. Or the reflex never actually occurred. Everything took place in one dimension, and the human brain is a 4 dimensional event.

But that is not to say that we could not create a "device" which was able to achieve this massive level of parallelization. For one thing, we already know that it exists in a working model (i.e., the human brain). And also, the human "brain" model may not be the only way to achieve this kind of processing.

I am convinced that it is possible to develop a device which would achieve real consciousness. One where it would be a moral issue as to whether it could be simply shut down. The question is, can humans build something like that? Is our human intelligence capable of taking computer development to a level of complexity that can achieve such a level of sophistication? I sincerely don't know.

We are a pretty damn smart species. Especially given the fact that we have a stone age brain. (If that were not true, then we would fear speed and much as we do heights. But fear or respect for heights has evolved in us, and fear of traveling 90 miles an hour has not nautrally occurred.)

I think that the potential is there to achieve this (at least in terms of engineering and physics - we can be sure of this because it has already been accomplished in nature). The question is can we successfully carve out the pathways needed to do it? My guess is that if we are capable, we are at least 200 years from that achievement (maybe even 1,000 years).

We can simulate specific behaviors of a neuron, that has already been accomplished by many research teams for varying purposes. It is the aggregate that is the difficult task. The brain is not the neuron. The brain is the massively parallel network architecture, containing highly specialized sub-components in the form of communities and super-communities (organs). It is real time parallelism. It may even, in part, be a quantum mechanical event resulting from its parallelism.

It just, I think, isn't possible to approach the problem from the standpoint of our current computer technology. Nor is it possible to do so with the next generation technology. Those are all single neuron based, if you want to draw a correlative. And the brain is far greater than the sum of its parts. 100 billion CPUs is not unlike a pile of 100 billion neurons. Neither alone does a brain make.


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Invisibleraytrace
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5436825 - 03/24/06 12:42 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

i dont know what his timeline is here, but the human brain will beat computers for at least another century.

yeah, especially if you consider that computers do not exist anyway


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OfflineSneezingPenis
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5438766 - 03/24/06 03:41 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

fresh313 said:


i dont know what his timeline is here, but the human brain will beat computers for at least another century.




Yes, and many of the worlds leading scientists tend to agree with you, as does Kurzweil. 100 years.... relative to our present technological growth/advance.

I think we can all agree that past discoveries and inventions make it easier and pave the way for more discoveries and inventions. We couldnt make the wheelbarrow without making the wheel first.

Look at the many graphs in the wiki link I had posted. It is completely evident that our technological evolution is working in a perfect exponential way. The time between "important" discoveries and inventions gets less and less, and Kurzweil effectivly shows that we are only a few years away from the part of the exponential function which seems like a straight leap up (relativly).


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5438803 - 03/24/06 03:57 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

fresh313 said:
posted by: Brian Oblivion
13-10-2003, 19:30
Please forgive the length of my "treaties" here.




So as to not take up so much space, I will not quote your entire quotation.
But this is irrelevant as well as being a myopic "treatise". I think all one needs to do to completely destroy that argument is use the example of the computer(s) which now dominate all chessmasters.
Consider Gary Kasparov, who openly scorned the pathetic state of computer chess in 1992, yet was defeated by a computer only 5 years later.

I will let Kurzweil take it from here...

Quote:

The list of ways computers can now exceed human capabilities is rapidly growing. For example, computers are diagnosing electrocardiograms and medical images, flying and landing airplanes, controlling the tactical decisions of automated weapons, making credit and financial decisions, and many other tasks that USED to require human intelligence.




In regards to the original quote...

Quote:

Although impressive in many respects the human brain suffers from severe limitations. We use its massive parallelism (one-hundred trillion interneuronal connections operating simutaneously) to quickly recognize subtle patterns. But our thinking is extremely slow: the basic neural transactions are several million times slower then the contemporary electronic circuits. That makes our physiological bandwidth for processing new information extremely limited compared to the exponential growth of the overall human knowledge base.




-all quotes by Raymond Kurzweil from the book "The Singularity is Near".


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5439175 - 03/24/06 06:21 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

its not that computers arent powerful computing machines, the brain is just a dynamic computing device, its always changing and adapting and learning. computers cannot learn without being fed knowledge, so yeah a computer can be programmed to play a good game of chess, but try and program it to run. program it to ride a motorcycle, program to invent something, innovate, it cant do it. its limited by what our conciousness puts in as a program , until it achieves its own level of conciousness.

"That makes our physiological bandwidth for processing new information extremely limited compared to the exponential growth of the overall human knowledge base."

a computer has no ability to process completely new information and test it, it can only base it on what it already knows, what been programmed into it.

"The list of ways computers can now exceed human capabilities is rapidly growing. For example, computers are diagnosing electrocardiograms and medical images, flying and landing airplanes, controlling the tactical decisions of automated weapons, making credit and financial decisions, and many other tasks that USED to require human intelligence."

humans did just fine landing thier airplanes before computers, its just easier, not better. humans can read ekg and medical images as well, automated weapons? yah a computer can point and shoot. and financial decisions... i make better financial decisions than computers every day.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5439195 - 03/24/06 06:27 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

That is the whole point of the beginning of The Singularity... a point where we can let computer technology become recursive.

right now, computers are limited by us, the humans, but the singularity is a point where computers are no longer limited by their programming and can be as versatile as a humans ability to switch from masturbation to doing the laundry.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5439212 - 03/24/06 06:31 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

yeah i like using computers but i dont really wanna be a slave to one.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5439241 - 03/24/06 06:39 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

slave is a possibility, but only one out of a million. Dont let the matrix get to you, read up on "Friendly AI".

Kurzweil talks about how when the Singularity does come, we will trascend the need for morality.
Just because it came from humans, doesnt mean that its independant consciousness or awareness of itself will warrant "evil" actions. Most harsh actions are done out of a need for survival, computers mosty likely will not have a struggle for survival, since it could almost instantly create a backup of itself in the wristwatch of a guy in Lichtenstien before "death" happened.


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Offlinefresh313
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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5439250 - 03/24/06 06:43 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

the computer would be created by humans therefore the need for survival would be somehow embedded into the creating code, possibly subliminally to us. alot of things would change the nature of the conciousness thiers alot of x values in AI.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5440244 - 03/25/06 02:54 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

see, the paradox of synthesized consciousness is that you have to make a non-living thing independantly aware of its own existence.

Computers and AI are not living things (no matter how many times you watched Haley Joel Osmond cry) and therefor have no survival reflex unless otherwise programmed/implanted.

Take a magnet for example, and imagine you are this magnet, and are independantly aware of your existance, and you know that you are not the actual metal rod, but are the force of magnetism contained in that metal rod.... would you still react to threats of destruction towards the metal rod which contains you? Or would you not be affected at all, because you understand that you cannot be destroyed and can effortlessly be contained in 4 teaspoons in a silverware tray not far away?

I truly think that our creations will surpass us spiritually, physically, and mentally (intelligence) in the very near future.

What would it take for you to accept, know, or understand that you are an indestructible force contained in a construct?


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5440251 - 03/25/06 03:04 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Cool, AI-computer-gurus-programs :thumbup: :grin:


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5440288 - 03/25/06 03:38 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

"What would it take for you to accept, know, or understand that you are an indestructible force contained in a construct? "

so u mean when my power plant shuts off my computer will still work ?


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5440678 - 03/25/06 11:09 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

huh? dont forget CMOS.... lol


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5440705 - 03/25/06 11:18 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I dont really understand your response fresh13, but I want to.

basically, we have no definitive answer to the stated question, yet when independant consciousness does eventually happen in a computer, it will understand and know the answer to the stated question much quicker than we will.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5441318 - 03/25/06 03:06 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

you said i was an idestructible force contained in a construct[homo sapiod body] right?

so i interpreted this as saying that my 'soul' or mind or whatever u want to call it, will live on after my construct is no longer operable.

the computer already knows the awnser, when u hit the power button it turns off.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5441402 - 03/25/06 03:44 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

No different than a lapse in perception.... like passing out.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5441428 - 03/25/06 03:59 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

yes but then it needs another power source again, something to turn the button on. its possible we have eternal conciousnesses which right before we die our computers derive power from an alternate source, on another plane or frequency or something metaphysical possibly physical yet not at all understood at the present. its unclear what would be able to travel with the computer maybe only the CMOS could be transmitted safely before total destruction is imminent.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5442611 - 03/25/06 11:04 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

It would only need another computer. THe information, or force, is still intact, but only needs another housing unit which is condusive to expression of its purpose or function.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5442671 - 03/25/06 11:31 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

yes we could be terminals to a universal ring and token server which connects to the server regional super computer area network


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5443021 - 03/26/06 01:59 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

it would be possible for this machine to predict the future to a good 75%+ degree if it was given enough of the correct information based upon which humans make decisions. there has to be enough information though it wont tell you when youll die. it needs enough input or variable decisions [ volume ] to base its predicton for this to occur again on. a pattern. right now people are still much better at predicting the future, yet using a neural network as a factor in your prediction is a good indicator.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5443677 - 03/26/06 10:19 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I think computers will be 100% accurate when predicting the future of computer related industries, generations, price-productivity and expansion.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5445677 - 03/26/06 11:34 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

nothing 100% but maybe like 90-95


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5447261 - 03/27/06 12:21 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

this is all telepathy on the screen , computer to computer information, c to c, the on both sides another c-c so

  b --> m <---> C <-----> C <---> m <-- b 


b - brain
m - mind

we're all plugged in to the LAN, sometimes u can access the WAN  :mushroom2:


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5447727 - 03/27/06 02:10 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I thought just now that maybe, just MAYBE (but it seems likely to me), the technological singularity will be some piece of software. Not some external hardware add-on.
We already have the best hardware around (so far and as far as i know) - which is our brain. We just need a better software I think.
How that might happen is difficult to forecast, really... maybe someone will hack our current Operative System... We'll see, for sure.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: cupevampe]
    #5447741 - 03/27/06 02:15 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

but, are u sure WE will see this new software working? so soon?
cant this feeling, of an end getting so close, be maybe just an illusion?
couldnt it last all our lives? or you feel it wont?


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: grevel]
    #5448064 - 03/27/06 03:54 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

the software is the skills[learned] to use a computer. navigate an operating system, gui, or text. then hop on the .net


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5448270 - 03/27/06 04:57 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Kurzweil shows in his book, time and time again that we are nearing the vertical leap of the exponential curve.
We are already beginning to breach the threshold of nanotechnology, which is 100 microns (i believe).

But, I dont think Fresh and I are on the same page with this.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: fresh313]
    #5452329 - 03/28/06 06:11 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

fresh313 said:
the software is the skills[learned] to use a computer. navigate an operating system, gui, or text. then hop on the .net




this thread makes me feel like im on acid. people are discussing technology and im thinking about meditation n what not.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5452430 - 03/28/06 06:31 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I'm interested in how these upcommoning technologies are going to effect human society and politics.

Some (religious/paranoid) people are going to refuse ever using this technology. I'm worried these future technologies might create new societal classes, the Enhanced and the Regulars. Or, what if GRIN technology are extremely expensive, and hence, only available to the rich?


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: MushmanTheManic]
    #5453988 - 03/29/06 04:44 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

a quite probable scenario is that the gap between the rich and the poor will (continue to) grow larger as power-oriented technologies will accumulate more power to the already powerful, so that at some point the middle class will disappear and humans will disintegrate into two different species. the rich will be able to live almost forever through reduced cell-aging techniques and produce genetically modified off-springs that will be more intelligent, beautiful etc. while the poor will sink deeper into misery and slavery and will eventually be stripped of political rights


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: raytrace]
    #5454118 - 03/29/06 07:43 AM (17 years, 9 months ago)

Genetics will be expensive at first, but as the process becomes refined will be much cheaper. DNA mapping used to take weeks, now it takes hours. It used to cost hundred thousands, now it costs around one thousand. We're already starting to see cheap genetic products. Soon, we'll start to see cheaps home products that will inform you of your genetic disposition's allowing you to alter your biology before problems arise.

Robotics technology is being developed all the time. This topic is of least interest to me, so I dont know as much. With previously complicated robots being on sale at Toys-R-Us, I wouldn't deny this area of research is also being rapidly improved. I mean robots are all around us. Robotic limbs, robots in manufacturing industry, robots for security, robots are pretty much everywhere.

Information technology is also increasing at an exponential rate. There are atomic drives being in product that allow !TERABYTES! to be stored on a relatively cheap hard disk (around $500-1000). The rate at which information is able to be shared IS increasing exponentially... its obvious.

Nanotechnology, I believe will be the most profound. It is currently the slowest of the four topics. The foundations of nanotechnology are being laid out by many current scientists. Think simple machines at the atomic level. Energy waste will be minimized, quality will be near flawless, production time will be extremely rapid. We will be able to synthesize foods, homes, clothes, whatever you can think of! However, its sort of difficult to visualize right now... just give it some time; you'll be ready for it without realizing it.

All of this is self-evident. Check any science/technology related magazine and you'll see what I mean.


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: psyka]
    #5456345 - 03/29/06 06:37 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)

I remember reading somewhere that they have created semi-nano bots with the sole purpose of helping clean up oil spills, but the only problem with their implementation is that there is no way to stop them once started.

I havent gotten terribly far in Kurzweils book yet, but the information he has given so far is very interesting, especially if you are into "technological theory".


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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: SneezingPenis]
    #5464194 - 03/31/06 01:58 PM (17 years, 9 months ago)

With all of this technological advancement, one has to wonder where we human beings will fit into the equation... :grin:

I think it will directly benefit our experience of life. I think we will become more focused in the present and will begin to more directly perceive reality. The more continued survival becomes effortless, and the less and less energy that is required to be expended on our part in order to arrange our surroundings to our preferences, the more oppurtunity we will have to be.

Perhaps we cannot instill within technology awareness, but perhaps we are the awareness. Technology is really, in a sense, simply the extension of our body. The more refined it becomes, the more we will begin to focus inward, into our consciousness.

But hey who knows. :lol:

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Re: Kurzweil: The Singularity is Near [Re: MushmanTheManic]
    #11115109 - 09/23/09 07:32 PM (14 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

MushmanTheManic said:
Ray Kurzweil and the Transhumanists seem to often be very over optimistic. During the seventies, some projected that by the year 2000 life extension pills would be cheap, effective, and readily available. Unfortunately, death is trickier than we expected.

With that said, I still am a big fan of Ray Kurzweil and other Transhumanists. While they may be too optimistic, the exponential acceleration GRIN (Genetic, Robotic, Information, Nano) technologies cannot be denied.

"Engineer your evolution"
:thumbup:




Ray never made those predictions. However what are anti-depressant pills? :levitate:


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