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OfflineTao
Village Genius

Registered: 09/19/03
Posts: 7,935
Loc: San Diego
Last seen: 8 years, 7 months
Consensus grows on climate change
    #5355466 - 03/01/06 10:17 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I know that we've plenty of threads on this and I know there is that one grainy chart of 25 whole years of satellite data saying otherwise (:rolleyes:), but this is a recently completed, very significant study from the most important organization regarding climate change that everyone should be aware about:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4761804.stm

The global scientific body on climate change will report soon that only greenhouse gas emissions can explain freak weather patterns.

Simultaneous changes in sea ice, glaciers, droughts, floods, ecosystems, ocean acidification and wildlife migration are taking place.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had previously said gases such as CO2 were "probably" to blame.

Its latest draft report will be sent to world governments next month.

A source told the BBC: "The measurements from the natural world on all parts of the globe have been anomalous over the past decade.

"If a few were out of kilter we wouldn't be too worried, because the Earth changes naturally. But the fact that they are virtually all out of kilter makes us very concerned."

He said the report would forecast that a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere would bring a temperature rise of 2-4.5C, or maybe higher.

This is an increase on projections in the last IPCC report, which suggested that the rise could be as little as 1.5C.

The scientists will say there is still great uncertainty about the pace and scope of future change, although by the end of the century global temperatures could increase by up to 5.8C.

The doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial stable levels (270 parts per million) is expected to happen around the middle of the century.

What really worries the scientists is that we are already seeing major disruptions despite having increased CO2 by just 30%.

A recent scientific report commissioned by the UK government warned that the world might already be fixed on a path that would begin melting the Greenland ice cap. That in turn would start raising sea levels throughout the world.

There will be sceptics, predominantly in the US, who will accuse the IPCC of trying to scare policy-makers into action with their report.

But the broad international expert consensus embodied in the IPCC will make it harder for the US administration to say that climate change is a problem for the future which can be solved by technological advances.

...
[article continues at


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Magash's Grain Tek  + Tub-in-Tub Incubator + Magash's PMP + SBP Tek + Dunking = Practically all a newbie grower needs :thumbup:


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OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 2 months, 20 days
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Tao]
    #5356490 - 03/02/06 07:13 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Here is my issue with this sort of thing... I have no doubt at all that the climate is changing... however, I have serious doubts as to the causality of climate change being linked to mankind. Millions of years of history have shown regular periodic massive climate changes... desserts become seas and seas become desserts type of climate changes... and all of those occured without the help of mankind... so why this time around are so many "experts" convinced that the climate change is caused by mankind?


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Just another spore in the wind.


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Tao]
    #5356795 - 03/02/06 09:27 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Keeping the climate eternally static is a pipe dream.


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InvisibleAlex213
Stranger
Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Seuss]
    #5356864 - 03/02/06 09:51 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

so why this time around are so many "experts" convinced that the climate change is caused by mankind?

Because that's what the science shows.


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OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 04/27/01
Posts: 23,480
Loc: Caribbean
Last seen: 2 months, 20 days
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Alex213]
    #5360685 - 03/03/06 05:22 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

> Because that's what the science shows.

No it doesn't. The science only shows that the climate is changing, nothing more. Mankinds impact on the environment may be helping speed the change along, but there is no proof at all that mankinds impact on the environment is actually causing the change in climate. Extrapolation is inherently inaccurate, and is the source of the "proof" so often quoted.


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Just another spore in the wind.


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InvisibleAlex213
Stranger
Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Seuss]
    #5360690 - 03/03/06 05:26 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

No, the bulk of scientists agree mankind is affecting climate change.


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Offlinegluke bastid
Stinky Bum
Male User Gallery

Registered: 12/20/00
Posts: 3,322
Loc: Charm City
Last seen: 5 years, 3 months
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Seuss]
    #5361407 - 03/03/06 12:30 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
> Because that's what the science shows.

No it doesn't.  The science only shows that the climate is changing, nothing more.  Mankinds impact on the environment may be helping speed the change along, but there is no proof at all that mankinds impact on the environment is actually causing the change in climate.  Extrapolation is inherently inaccurate, and is the source of the "proof" so often quoted.




Here we go again :rolleyes:

Look, if we know for a fact that releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere leads to the greenhouse effect which speeds along climate changes that are threatening to the livelihood of the ecosystem we depend on, plus the factors that release those greenhouse gases also pollute the land and water we also depend on, plus the fact that there is all of this buzz about how WWIII is going to be fought for oil...doesn't all that lead up to the same conclusion that we should probably finally launch a green energy program?


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:hst:
Society in every form is a blessing,
but government at its best is but a necessary evil
 
- Thomas Paine


Edited by gluke bastid (03/03/06 12:32 PM)


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Invisiblebadchad
Mad Scientist

Registered: 03/02/05
Posts: 13,372
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Seuss]
    #5361846 - 03/03/06 02:50 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Seuss said:
Millions of years of history have shown regular periodic massive climate changes... desserts become seas and seas become desserts type of climate changes... and all of those occured without the help of mankind... so why this time around are so many "experts" convinced that the climate change is caused by mankind?




I won't pretend to be an expert, however I think the main concern is how quickly the changes are occurring. While large climate flucuations are normal over millions of years most of the current data indicates recent changes have occurred much, much quicker.


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...the whole experience is (and is as) a profound piece of knowledge.  It is an indellible experience; it is forever known.  I have known myself in a way I doubt I would have ever occurred except as it did.

Smith, P.  Bull. Menninger Clinic (1959) 23:20-27; p. 27.

...most subjects find the experience valuable, some find it frightening, and many say that is it uniquely lovely.

Osmond, H.  Annals, NY Acad Science (1957) 66:418-434; p.436


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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
Male

Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 12,949
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 9 years, 18 days
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: badchad]
    #5361936 - 03/03/06 03:13 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Wrong on both counts.

The historical record shows quite large variations in temperature occurring in a LOT shorter time frames than millions of years. See the medieval warming period and the "Little Ice Age" as just the most recent examples.

As for the "recent changes", the data is inconclusive at best that there are even any changes of statistical significance to speak of over the last several decades. The most accurate data available of atmospheric temperature change -- satellite data -- show no change in the twenty-five years during which they have been taken. To be more accurate, they actually show a slight DROP -- but most analysts say the drop is so slight as to be statistically meaningless.



Phred


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InvisibleGijith
Daisy Chain Eater

Registered: 12/04/03
Posts: 2,400
Loc: New York
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Tao]
    #5362609 - 03/03/06 06:55 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

For Tao and Phred,

There was a development on the satellite data this past year. It seems there were some math errors when those first studies were prepared.

I posted about it in Science and Tech (I agree with Phred that there are far too many PAL Global Warming threads) here .

Peace


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what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?


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InvisibleAlex213
Stranger
Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Phred]
    #5363547 - 03/04/06 12:57 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

As for the "recent changes", the data is inconclusive at best that there are even any changes of statistical significance to speak of over the last several decades.

Source?


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OfflineCatalysis
EtherealEngineer

Registered: 04/23/02
Posts: 1,742
Last seen: 15 years, 6 months
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Tao]
    #5364324 - 03/04/06 11:32 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

There will be sceptics, predominantly in the US...




Says who?

http://www.friendsofscience.org/


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OfflineCatalysis
EtherealEngineer

Registered: 04/23/02
Posts: 1,742
Last seen: 15 years, 6 months
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Tao]
    #5364377 - 03/04/06 11:47 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Also, the significance of any study from the IPCC is tainted with the controversy from 1996 when scientists clamed the report was subject to unauthorized editing to connect global warming to human factors and deletions of statements about other warming causes. They claim that the IPCC is under political pressure to support anthropogenic climate change because that is really their entire purpose for being created. If they didn't produce results linking global warming to human factors, they would be unemployed.


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InvisibleAlex213
Stranger
Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Catalysis]
    #5364482 - 03/04/06 12:31 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

when scientists clamed

Which "scientists" claimed this? I don't know about 1996 but certainly now the only "scientists" claiming mankind doesn't affect global warming are an extreme fringe usually funded by oil companies and big business.


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InvisibleGijith
Daisy Chain Eater

Registered: 12/04/03
Posts: 2,400
Loc: New York
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Alex213]
    #5364655 - 03/04/06 01:51 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Not really true, Alex. There are a lot of reasonable and uninfluenced people in the field who think the human hypothesis is way off. They're definitely a very small and shrinking minority, but they're out there.


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what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Gijith]
    #5364687 - 03/04/06 01:58 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

beware the anti-business communist, anti-business enviromentalist complex.



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InvisibleAlex213
Stranger
Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Gijith]
    #5366369 - 03/05/06 01:40 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Not really true, Alex. There are a lot of reasonable and uninfluenced people in the field who think the human hypothesis is way off. They're definitely a very small and shrinking minority, but they're out there.

When even Bush is admitting global warming is man-made you know the evidence is undeniable.


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Alex213]
    #5367115 - 03/05/06 11:24 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Alex213 said:When even Bush is admitting global warming is man-made you know the evidence is undeniable.


Bush has been known to be wrong before. Im not sure why you would trust him now.


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InvisibleAlex213
Stranger
Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: DieCommie]
    #5367125 - 03/05/06 11:30 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

It's more to do with the fact that Bush would sooner admit to wearing pantyhose than admit global warming is manmade.


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Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 7 months
Re: Consensus grows on climate change [Re: Alex213]
    #5367720 - 03/05/06 03:17 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Alex213 said:
It's more to do with the fact that Bush would sooner admit to wearing pantyhose than admit global warming is manmade.




Which is why we are all breathlessly anticipating your link to a source which confirms this. No term papers this time, OK. Or double super secret confidantes close to the White House.


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