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OfflineDemotriton
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How probable is Nuclear War?
    #5353649 - 03/01/06 01:45 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Do you think a nuclear war will happen in.........
Our lifetime?
Users may choose only one (67 total votes)
Highly probable
-
34 51%
50/50 chance
-
7 10%
Not likely
-
20 30%
Don't Know
-
6 9%
In the next 25 years?
Users may choose only one (67 total votes)
Highly probable
-
18 27%
50/50 chance
-
22 33%
Not likely
-
21 31%
Don't Know
-
6 9%
In the next 7 years?
Users may choose only one (67 total votes)
Highly probable
-
7 10%
50/50 chance
-
16 24%
Not likely
-
42 63%
Don't Know
-
2 3%
Votes accepted from (03/01/06 12:00 PM) to (06/01/06 01:43 PM)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll.
Filter by response


Edited by Demotriton (03/02/06 02:11 PM)


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OfflineEkstaza
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Demotriton]
    #5354088 - 03/01/06 04:22 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I highly doubt that full on nuclear war will ever take place between two nations. The consequences are drastic and well known.


It's highly likely, however, that a nuclear weapon will be detonated by a terrorist. I believe that it's a miracle that there hasn't been one already.


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YOUR EXPERIENCE WITH ANY GIVEN DRUG ISN'T THE DEFINITIVE MEASURE OF THE DRUGS EFFECTS.


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OfflineBrAiN
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Ekstaza]
    #5356185 - 03/02/06 01:56 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Yea but all it takes is one nut job to press the button when he's on his death bed (cough cough Kim Jong Il)... I mean if you're crazy enough and you know your days are numbered.... why not?


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: BrAiN]
    #5356294 - 03/02/06 03:50 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

> I highly doubt that full on nuclear war will ever take place between two nations.

I agree. When a nation first aquires nuclear weapons, there is a large euphoria from those in charge. However, the euhporia is soon replaced by the grim reality of the consequences of having such destructive technology.

> Yea but all it takes is one nut job to press the button

One nut job has already pressed the button, literally. Luckily, there was one last safety that could not be overridden and the nukes blew up the submarine rather than vaporizing Hawaii.

There are really two types of "nuclear war". One, such as WWII, where a nuclear bomb is used during war. The other is the WWIII end of planet scenario. I was answering the poll for the later. I could see small tactical nukes used during war, especially in response to a nuclear terrorist action.

> why not?

It is one thing to have nukes, and quite another to deliver them to a target.


--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.


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OfflineMadtowntripper
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Seuss]
    #5357693 - 03/02/06 02:15 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I was answering the question assuming he meant ANY nuclear weapons used in a war.

I doubt a full on nuclear exchange will happen either, but I'd be willing to bet a stack of someones money that a bomb is going to get detonated in anger by someone.

and probably soon.


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After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action.  If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it.  - Ernest Hemingway

If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it.  In the law courts, in business, in government.  There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent.    -Cormac MacCarthy

He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God.  - Aeschylus


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #5360716 - 03/03/06 05:38 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

> but I'd be willing to bet a stack of someones money that a bomb is going to get detonated in anger by someone.

I certainly would not bet against you. As more and more unstable countries create the infrastructure to produce weapons grade nuclear fuel, the more likely it becomes that somebody with nothing to loose will get ahold of a nuclear bomb. However, I do not consider the use of a nuclear bomb by a terrorist group to be "nuclear war". Having grown up during the cold war, I was always taught to think of nuclear war as the WWIII planet killer event... how times have changed.


--------------------
Just another spore in the wind.


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Seuss]
    #5363071 - 03/03/06 09:36 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

*back in my day, we were under the threat of global thermonuclear war, dagnamit, and that was the way we liked it, we loved it! Hallelujah!  you kids are scared of a silly dirty bomb... humph*  :sleepingcow:

I agree though, I wouldnt consider one terrorist dirty bomb or nuke a techniclly nuclear war, just some real fucked up terrorism.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: DieCommie]
    #5364121 - 03/04/06 10:20 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

real fucked up terrorism.




Is there any other kind :wink:

Global thermonuclear war? Very unlikely. But small scale nuclear deployment in my view is very likely.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if the USA would use a tactical nuclear warhead (for instance as a bunkerbuster) in the lower kiloton range, within the timeframe of those seven years. A nuclear bomb in terrorist hands is far less likely within seven years, unless it's stolen from te russians. The russians have a very poor grasp on the safety of their atomic bombs, theft is definitely possible.

I think the first NATION that will be a nuclear aggressor will be the USA. No *nation* would deploy nukes against the US because the US will then turn said country into a glass parking lot. And the greatest aggressor in the world today is the USA, as judged by the number of war campaigns and the pushing aside of any international law that might hold them back from aggressively advancing their own interests.


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Offlineblaze2
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Asante]
    #5367520 - 03/05/06 02:07 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

These are the end times.


--------------------
"Religion without science is blind, Science without religion is lame." Albert Einstein

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OfflineEkstaza
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: blaze2]
    #5368567 - 03/05/06 08:34 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

blaze2 said:
These are the end times.



People have been saying that crap for an eternity. I bet there was some caveman that, at some point, said the caveman equivilant. My guess is that as long as there are people left to say stuff, there will be someone out there who'll say, "These are the end times". :rolleyes:


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YOUR EXPERIENCE WITH ANY GIVEN DRUG ISN'T THE DEFINITIVE MEASURE OF THE DRUGS EFFECTS.


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Ekstaza]
    #5368653 - 03/05/06 09:13 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I predict the endtimes in about 4.5bil years :earth:


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: DieCommie]
    #5369811 - 03/06/06 03:53 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

> I predict the endtimes in about 4.5bil years

Unlike diamonds, time is forever...  :grin:

> unless it's stolen from te russians

I don't want to get into the technical details, but a stolen nuke is going to be a dud, most likely.  There is a critical part inside a nuke that requires replacing quite often.  The nuke is a dud without the part being replaced and without changing the laws of physics, there is no way around it.  (Even a dud nuke can do a lot of damage...)


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Seuss]
    #5370441 - 03/06/06 11:01 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

There is a critical part inside a nuke that requires replacing quite often.




I think you're referring to the DT booster in the core which breeds neutrons and gives of heat like so:

D + T ---> He-4 + n

Indeed the Tritium decomposes quite rapidly, but a terrorist will not keep the nuke around but will rather use it as soon as possible to avoid being caught with it.

The stolen warhead however will be functional. The required activation code can be gotten around by either building a new lenses system around the core or merely rewiring the old one.

Quote:

The nuke is a dud without the part being replaced and without changing the laws of physics, there is no way around it.




If the nuke is operational, the DT booster will already be in the device and will keep for some months at least. If you're a hobbyist you could take the plutonium from two nukes and cast that into a plutonium pit which has enough mass to not need a DT booster. (DT fusion only boosts yield thus reduces plutonium requirement, but with more plutonium theres no need to conserve it and you can use it straight)

With a separate source of neutrons you can even build a modified version of the gun-configuration (the "nuclear pipe bomb") avoiding the high-tech task of designing and building an implosion configuration. Plutonium gives off Alpha instead of neutrons so it "cannot be used in a gun system" but it can if you have a separate neutron source to initiate it, so how about using this mechanism:
Plutonium --alpha--> Beryllium ---> neutron which you can build from the plutonium and the beryllium layer left over from the second nuke, arranging it so thsat the neutron beam will only hit the mass on the moment it gets critical.
This basically builds a suitcase nuke.

Where there's a will there's a way, that's the glory and doom of humanity.


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Asante]
    #5373359 - 03/07/06 05:46 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

> I think you're referring to the DT booster

I'm not. Sorry, but I will not discuss this.


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Offlinesuper_ae
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Seuss]
    #5376089 - 03/07/06 10:15 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

The world is a fairly hostile place at the moment, but we've been hit with that fact for so long that we don't register it being as dangerous as it actually is. We also most likely don't know to what extent the danger is. we could be a lot closer to a nuclear war than we think.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Seuss]
    #5377131 - 03/08/06 10:20 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Sorry, but I will not discuss this.




OK, I respect that.


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Offlinepshawny
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Asante]
    #5379781 - 03/08/06 11:40 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

You guys know to much about nuclear bombs.
Glad your on our side :hug:


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Invisiblespock
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: pshawny]
    #5379901 - 03/09/06 12:31 AM (17 years, 10 months ago)

the us makes enemys every day.
if we piss china off and they "make a move" we will have to nuke em.
i think this will happen. i say china cause they're the only country that i think could really fuck the us up.


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Invisibleadoseofparn0z
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: Madtowntripper]
    #5381161 - 03/09/06 12:35 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Madtowntripper said:
I was answering the question assuming he meant ANY nuclear weapons used in a war.




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OfflineDemotriton
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Re: How probable is Nuclear War? [Re: adoseofparn0z]
    #5383064 - 03/09/06 09:09 PM (17 years, 10 months ago)

I had the use of larger nukes in mind when I made up this poll. (ones big enough to destroy a city)
But the smaller tactical ones could cause an escalation to where the use of bigger and more destructive nukes could be used.


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