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 Vvellum
Stranger
Registered: 05/24/04
Posts: 10,920
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well, call Ol' Gary up and tell him that he can be a millionaire...
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 Snip
aimin' at your head
Registered: 04/03/04
Posts: 351
Loc: Mountains of the Moon
Last seen: 10 years, 1 month
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 Re: Divining  [Re: Diploid]
#5064239 - 12/14/05 07:49 PM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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hehe, i still have the stick that was used to find our well.
can you really just through out an idea because it cant be proven with a single test? the fact that dowsing is used to find relatively large sources of water and that it fails when attempted to find small quanities of water tells me something.... in my eyes, the test is obviously faulty.
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cross my heart and hope to die
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DeepDish
Stranger
Registered: 01/14/02
Posts: 86
Last seen: 15 years, 28 days
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Re: Divining [Re: Rono]
#5067183 - 12/15/05 01:11 PM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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There was a test done in Germany around 8 years ago that is probably the most valid in terms of experimental setup. A pipe was buried underneath the ground on a sloped surface, and connected to two water tanks. A pump was setup to constantly pump water from the lower tank to the upper tank to ensure proper flow. Finally a switch was setup that allowed the water to be diverted from the main pipe to a bypass pipe located some distance away. The diviners were allowed to use whatever means they wished to detect if the water was flowing through the main pipe. Each diviner was given thirty tries, and between each run the testers were allowed to change which pipe the water was flowing in. Only a simple yes or no was required from the diviner. The mean score was 52 percent with the high and low scores between 37 and 67 percent. These results were similar to those acheived by asking people to randomly pick yes or no thirty times.
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Vvellum
Stranger
Registered: 05/24/04
Posts: 10,920
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Re: Divining [Re: DeepDish]
#5069323 - 12/15/05 10:17 PM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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sounds about right. thanks for the insight.
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Rono
DSYSB since '01
 
Registered: 01/25/01
Posts: 16,259
Loc: Calgary, Alberta
Last seen: 1 year, 1 month
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Re: Divining [Re: DeepDish]
#5070386 - 12/16/05 08:07 AM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
The mean score was 52 percent with the high and low scores between 37 and 67 percent. These results were similar to those acheived by asking people to randomly pick yes or no thirty times.
Maybe I'm biased...but 67% seems fairly impressive to me...especially out of 30 tries.
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"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"
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Diploid
Cuban
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
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Re: Divining [Re: Rono]
#5070451 - 12/16/05 08:26 AM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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Maybe I'm biased...but 67% seems fairly impressive to me...especially out of 30 tries.
Not biased, naive.
The high and low scores were 37 and 67 percent. The mean was 52 percent. These are the numbers that occur when you flip a coin.
In other words, a group of people flipping coins or a computer generating random numbers to determine if there was water in the pipe would score the same as the diviners.
That most people do not recognize this basic fact of statistics and probability is another reason why superstition is so widespread.
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Republican Values:
1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.
4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.
Edited by Diploid (12/16/05 08:33 AM)
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Rono
DSYSB since '01
Registered: 01/25/01
Posts: 16,259
Loc: Calgary, Alberta
Last seen: 1 year, 1 month
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Re: Divining [Re: Diploid]
#5070514 - 12/16/05 08:43 AM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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The mean is nothing to me...I'm referring exclusively to the 67%. If you flip a coin 100 times, and can predict 67 times what it will be...I'd say that is pretty damn impressive.
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"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"
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Diploid
Cuban
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
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Re: Divining [Re: Rono]
#5070521 - 12/16/05 08:46 AM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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If you flip a coin 100 times, and can predict 67 times what it will be...I'd say that is pretty damn impressive
But this is exactly the success rate you will achieve if you simply guess at random.
You are never going to get this. You don't want to know the truth, you WANT divination to be true no matter what the evidence to the contrary.
I give up. 
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Republican Values:
1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.
4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.
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Rono
DSYSB since '01
Registered: 01/25/01
Posts: 16,259
Loc: Calgary, Alberta
Last seen: 1 year, 1 month
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Re: Divining [Re: Diploid]
#5070542 - 12/16/05 08:53 AM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
I give up.
Good choice...
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"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"
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DeepDish
Stranger
Registered: 01/14/02
Posts: 86
Last seen: 15 years, 28 days
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Re: Divining [Re: Rono]
#5070652 - 12/16/05 09:15 AM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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As I stated above, the score distribution was similar to that obtained by asking people outside of the test to randomly guess yes or no for each of the thirty runs. In fact one of the random guessers got 21 out of 30, which is 70% and higher than any of the diviners. Also remember this test was designed to be easy. Its not as if they had to walk around a plot of land attempting to find a hidden pipe. They knew exactly where it was, they only had to determine if water was actually flowing through it. A correct rate between 90 and 100% would be impressive.
If you still aren't convinced get twenty of your friends together and flip a coin thrity times. Before each flip try to guess what the result will be. At least one of you will get "impressive" numbers.
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Anno
Experimenter
Registered: 06/17/99
Posts: 24,166
Loc: my room
Last seen: 5 days, 4 hours
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Re: Divining [Re: DeepDish]
#5070718 - 12/16/05 09:49 AM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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And this will prove he has paranormal abilities. 
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Vvellum
Stranger
Registered: 05/24/04
Posts: 10,920
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Re: Divining [Re: Rono]
#5071142 - 12/16/05 11:35 AM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
Rono said:
The mean is nothing to me...I'm referring exclusively to the 67%. If you flip a coin 100 times, and can predict 67 times what it will be...I'd say that is pretty damn impressive.
actually, it is not all that impressive.
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Diploid
Cuban
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
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Re: Divining [Re: Vvellum]
#5072457 - 12/16/05 05:03 PM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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LMAO!!!
I'm asking Santa for one this x-mas!
Fitzgerald LRL ($2000 Divining Gadget)
We all know diviners are not motivated by money, not even those who sell plastic and salt trinkets for $2000 (I'm in the wrong business).
Nevertheless, Carl Moreland is offering a $25,000 prize to the manufacturer (or anyone else) if he simply does once what he says he can do. That plus the JREF $1,000,000.
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Republican Values:
1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.
4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.
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psyka
Praetorian
Registered: 06/09/03
Posts: 1,652
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Re: Divining [Re: Diploid]
#5073398 - 12/16/05 09:28 PM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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lol, thats like what I used to do when I was 4 or 5. I got a bunch of unrelated items, like a small cylinder, some batteries, lights, and other shiney things, and made a pretend light saber. It worked perfectly, I swear
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As the life of a candle,
my wick will burn out.
But, the fire of my mind
shall beam into infinite.
 
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Rono
DSYSB since '01
Registered: 01/25/01
Posts: 16,259
Loc: Calgary, Alberta
Last seen: 1 year, 1 month
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Re: Divining [Re: Diploid]
#5074774 - 12/17/05 10:22 AM (18 years, 4 months ago) |
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Anyone that pays that much for a dowsing rod deserves to be burned.
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"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"
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