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Offlinedaimyo
Monticello

Registered: 05/13/04
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Last seen: 4 years, 9 months
Diplomats In Disarray Over Iran
    #4685921 - 09/20/05 01:59 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Article
By Jonathan Marcus
BBC diplomatic correspondent

It looks increasingly clear that traces of enriched uranium found by IAEA inspectors on centrifuge parts in Iran were contamination from their supplier.

The parts were purchased second-hand from Pakistan.

This news destroys what might have been a powerful line of evidence suggesting Iran was pressing ahead with a secret uranium enrichment programme.

So where do these latest revelations leave US and European efforts to halt Iran's enrichment activities?

Western governments hoped the traces of highly enriched uranium found in Iran would be positive proof that the Iranians had already embarked upon a secret enrichment programme.


Diplomatic scramble

While the full details of the scientific investigation have not been made public, all the indications are that this material was already on the centrifuge parts when they were imported from Pakistan.

Iran has seized on the news as justification of its denials that it was up to no good.

Western diplomats have been thrown into some disarray - the news greatly complicating their efforts to persuade Iran to give up its enrichment activities altogether.

The next round of planned talks between the Europeans and Iran that were to have taken place at the end of this month have been abandoned.

A Foreign Office spokesman in London noted that "there is no basis for negotiations until Iran responds to the IAEA board's last resolution".

The resolution urged the country to halt its recently resumed uranium conversion activities - a process that provides the seed material for enrichment.


No smoking gun

Iran shows no sign of complying with the IAEA's demand.

IAEA head, Mohammed ElBaradei, will receive the full scientific report on Iran's activities early next month.

A further board meeting will be held once the findings have been digested.

But the absence of any "smoking gun" may make it much harder to convince the board's members to refer the matter to the UN Security Council.

That said, the board may well urge Iran to do more to explain some of its past nuclear activities and some may want to give it more time to do so, thereby delaying a full-scale crisis.


--------------------
"I have sworn upon the altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man."


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Invisiblepsilomonkey
Twisted brainwrong of a oneoff man mental

Registered: 08/08/03
Posts: 812
Loc: Airstrip One
Re: Diplomats In Disarray Over Iran [Re: daimyo]
    #4686388 - 09/20/05 04:34 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Iran is in a very strong position, and it knows it. Serious sanctions are unlikely because:-

a) a constriction the the world oil supply will probably trigger a global recession. And hey whats a few more nukes after India, Pakistan and North Korea?

b) China will probably veto security council action if they are promised a good oil deal.

c) US forces are already committed in Iraq and an military escalation that included Iran would probably kick off the whole region.

I think it naive to think that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, and I don't doubt that their security services are helping destabilize Iraq, but what are you to do. I expect if anything, Israel will simply level their reactor like they did with Iraq if they are convinced the threat is real.


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Offlinedaimyo
Monticello

Registered: 05/13/04
Posts: 7,751
Last seen: 4 years, 9 months
Re: Diplomats In Disarray Over Iran [Re: psilomonkey]
    #4686708 - 09/20/05 06:10 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

psilomonkey said:
I expect if anything, Israel will simply level their reactor like they did with Iraq if they are convinced the threat is real.




Probably the best bet.


--------------------
"I have sworn upon the altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man."


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OfflineSeussA
Error: divide byzero

Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 04/27/01
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Re: Diplomats In Disarray Over Iran [Re: daimyo]
    #4689275 - 09/21/05 07:55 AM (11 years, 2 months ago)

> Israel will simply level their reactor

The reactor isn't the issue. The risk and fear lies in uranium enrichment.


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Invisiblepsilomonkey
Twisted brainwrong of a oneoff man mental

Registered: 08/08/03
Posts: 812
Loc: Airstrip One
Re: Diplomats In Disarray Over Iran [Re: Seuss]
    #4689305 - 09/21/05 08:24 AM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Indeed, I was thinking about plutonium weapons. Enrichment could be going on a great number of locations.

In other developments, the security council route looks to be blocked by China and Russia.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4266372.stm

and.. Israel reckons they could only be 6 months off having a device.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article314008.ece


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