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InvisibleSwami
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Registered: 01/19/00
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Non-predictive Beliefs
    #4676880 - 09/18/05 07:48 AM (11 years, 2 months ago)

A belief that has zero predictive power is useless and should be discarded.


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The proof is in the pudding.


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Invisibleredgreenvines
irregular verb
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: Swami]
    #4676896 - 09/18/05 08:10 AM (11 years, 2 months ago)

a belief is more like a sticky note on the cover of your filofax that you can hardly remove unless you really really want to and will work at persistently; which of course usually means you miss both breakfast and lunch while pulling off the nasty bugger, and people are very hard to convince to miss even the smallest cookie.

so while you might be right, I predict you won't have many followers.


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Offlinecrunchytoast
oppositional

Registered: 04/07/05
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: Swami]
    #4676920 - 09/18/05 09:06 AM (11 years, 2 months ago)

how does one choose what to believe?

i can tell myself there's no gravity over and and over but it seems to stick.

what do you think about value beliefs ("it's wrong to steal", for example)?


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"consensus on the nature of equilibrium is usually established by periodic conflict." -henry kissinger


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InvisibleSwami
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: crunchytoast]
    #4677592 - 09/18/05 02:38 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Your idea of wrongness is also, in effect, some sort of predicability:

It is wrong because:

A. The owner will smash my face if I am caught.

B. Society will fine me or jail me if I am caught.

C. God or karma will punish me for my sins.

D. I will feel guilty later.

With absolutely zero possible future repercussions, there would be no sense of wrongness.


--------------------



The proof is in the pudding.


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Invisibleredgreenvines
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: Swami]
    #4677610 - 09/18/05 02:46 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

mere speculation


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InvisibleSwami
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: redgreenvines]
    #4677630 - 09/18/05 02:57 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Of course it is speculation, but the believer thinks there will be or may be some FUTURE repercussion.

If X then Y.


--------------------



The proof is in the pudding.


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Invisibleredgreenvines
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: Swami]
    #4677640 - 09/18/05 03:02 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

so you are hanging one belief on another belief and then projecting from there in order to pit one belief context against another belief context and measuring all that with speculation and, above all, attitude?


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Offlinecrunchytoast
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: redgreenvines]
    #4678442 - 09/18/05 07:31 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

swami, sounds like you're saying beliefs should only have concrete expressions.

i would go a step farther and say they only do have concrete expressions- once a person realizes their belief has no concrete expression, they pass it by.

RGV interesting point- predictive value is only determinable after the fact.


--------------------
"consensus on the nature of equilibrium is usually established by periodic conflict." -henry kissinger


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InvisibleSwami
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: crunchytoast]
    #4678464 - 09/18/05 07:35 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

once a person realizes their belief has no concrete expression, they pass it by.

But they don't. Millions continue to believe in intercessory prayer even though it doesn't work.


--------------------



The proof is in the pudding.


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InvisibleLunarEclipse
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: Swami]
    #4678485 - 09/18/05 07:45 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Provide examples of predictive beliefs (no, probability theory doesn't count as a belief).


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Anxiety is what you make it.


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Offlinecrunchytoast
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: Swami]
    #4678511 - 09/18/05 07:55 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

are you saying that the millions know prayer has no effect, but still do it?


--------------------
"consensus on the nature of equilibrium is usually established by periodic conflict." -henry kissinger


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InvisibleDiploidM
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: crunchytoast]
    #4678528 - 09/18/05 08:01 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

I've seen team athletes from both teams kneel and cross themselves as they enter the field before a game. Presumably, they're praying for a win. Since both can't win, how does God chose which team to bless?


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Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.


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Offlinecrunchytoast
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: Diploid]
    #4678547 - 09/18/05 08:07 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

i agree it doesn't make sense- but would you say that these athletes expect no result from their prayers?


--------------------
"consensus on the nature of equilibrium is usually established by periodic conflict." -henry kissinger


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InvisibleDiploidM
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Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: crunchytoast]
    #4678550 - 09/18/05 08:09 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

I think they DO expect results; otherwise, why pray?


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.


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InvisibleTheHateCamel
Research &Development -DBK
Registered: 01/31/03
Posts: 15,738
Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: Diploid]
    #4678555 - 09/18/05 08:10 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Your orthodox grandparents are in the crowd and you want in on the will?


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InvisibleDiploidM
Cuban

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Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: TheHateCamel]
    #4678566 - 09/18/05 08:13 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

My grandparents are very unorthodox.  :grin:


--------------------
Republican Values:

1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you.
2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child.
3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer.

4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.


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InvisibleTheHateCamel
Research &Development -DBK
Registered: 01/31/03
Posts: 15,738
Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: Diploid]
    #4678581 - 09/18/05 08:15 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

:lol:

His*?


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Invisibleredgreenvines
irregular verb
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Posts: 19,674
Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: Swami]
    #4678758 - 09/18/05 08:52 PM (11 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Swami said:
once a person realizes their belief has no concrete expression, they pass it by.
But they don't. Millions continue to believe in intercessory prayer even though it doesn't work.



which is why I said at the beginning
Quote:

redgreenvines said:
a belief is more like a sticky note on the cover of your filofax that you can hardly remove unless you really really want to ....



and why I pointed out how missing meals will interfere with the real business which is more consuming.


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Invisiblevampirism
Stranger
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Registered: 03/14/04
Posts: 8,120
Re: Non-predictive Beliefs [Re: Swami]
    #4679752 - 09/19/05 12:27 AM (11 years, 2 months ago)

if this were true, learning would be impossible


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