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Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 7 years, 9 months
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: exclusive58]
    #4567149 - 08/22/05 04:33 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Way to get real specific there. You were in Iraq?


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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
Male

Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 12,949
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 9 years, 2 months
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: Swami]
    #4567225 - 08/22/05 04:55 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Swami writes:

Quote:

I have not once retreated from a single prediction made on this forum. All have come true and only one remains unfulfilled.




Except for the prediction about who would end up the new Iraqi leader after the January elections, of course. And except for the one about Hussein not being brought to trial. He's not in the dock yet, but pre-trial motions and filings have been underway for quite a while now. So the jury's still out on that prediction, but I don't like your odds on getting that one right either. Unless someone manages to assassinate Hussein's ass before opening statements. Always a possibility.

Some Swami statements from the thread "Braveheart Bush" http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/3684254/page//fpart/1/vc/1

post #3684389 --"How can anyone besides Allawi possibly win, even if the vote is totally "fair"? "

post #3684471 -- "Do you HONESTLY believe that anyone other than the American-backed Allawi has even a remote chance?"

post #3692118 -- "And of course, not you or anyone else that supports this farce will wager that anyone other than Allawi will be the head puppet; same as before."





Phred


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Offlinedaimyo
Monticello

Registered: 05/13/04
Posts: 7,751
Last seen: 12 years, 1 month
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: Swami]
    #4567313 - 08/22/05 05:18 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Bush needs to get off his lazy cokeheaded ass and get our troops home so those sand eaters can commence killing each other in their "civil" war.


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"I have sworn upon the altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man."

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Invisibleafoaf
CEO DBK?
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Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 32,665
Loc: Ripple's Heart
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: daimyo]
    #4568122 - 08/22/05 08:38 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

what's it like to be enlightened?


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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.

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InvisibleLeftyBurnz
Mr. I Eat Butthole
Male User Gallery

Registered: 06/21/05
Posts: 24,570
Loc: FL
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: afoaf]
    #4568379 - 08/22/05 09:27 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

well i think this is the first time ive agreed with swami on ANYTHING.... not saying that i want it to happen but i honestly cant see this ending up any other way besides civil war, there are distinct differences between the three main groups and i doubt any of them will compromise with the others, especially the sunni's(saddam was a sunni right?) they hate the kurds and the other group with a fiery passion. theyll probably fake peace until the very last american is out of iraq. i really wish there could be peace in iraq but thats about as likely as bush admitting the real reasons we went to war.


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OfflineJesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
Posts: 1,459
Last seen: 11 years, 6 months
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: zappaisgod]
    #4568775 - 08/22/05 10:38 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

zappaisgod said:

Well, if you continuously lower the standards of what any reasonable person would consider a full blown civil war NYC is in a state of civil war today.




http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/2005814231422.asp

The current death rate in Iraq is 45 per 100,000 population. The Death Rate under Saddam averaged over 100/100,000. Iraq today is over twice as safe than under Saddam.

The Death Rate in Washington DC is comparable to that in Iraq. In the 1990's it ranged from 46.4 to 80.6.

I demand that we pull out of Washington immediately.

Is Washington is a state of civil war? Was Iraq in a state of civil war under Saddam? He was certainly quite fond of killing his own people.

I think that we are winning this war. I don't care if they fail to come up with a constitution today. Let them decide what they can agree on and what they can't agree on, and let that be the basis for another election. The next wave of elected politicians will include more Sunnis, because the Bathist Sunnis didn't vote the first time around and polls show that they regretted it.

Lets also remember that the Kurds are Sunni Muslims, which throws an interesting twist into the mix. It is a very complex situation, and in the end they will have to compromise. Civil War advocates think that compromise can't happen.

I happen to have a faith in free people. It is amazing what people can do when freed from the chains of bondage. I am for freedom, liberty and self determination. I have faith in my Iraqi brethren. People want to be free. They will find a solution.

Another post from Chicken Little. Guess what? The sky still isn't falling.


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Tastes just like chicken

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OfflineJesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
Posts: 1,459
Last seen: 11 years, 6 months
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: JesusChrist]
    #4568789 - 08/22/05 10:43 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Zappa, I reread that post, and my intent was not to call you Chicken Little. That was meant for the "we want a civil war to prove Bush wrong faction".

Some of these people would cum in their pants if Iraq became a killing field like Cambodia after we pulled out of Indochina. The Left's biggest moments always seem to be the slaughter of millions of innocent people whose only crime was that they wanted freedom, liberty, and self determination.


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Tastes just like chicken

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OfflineJB201
Desert Dweller
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Registered: 04/09/05
Posts: 323
Loc: Sonoran Desert
Last seen: 7 years, 30 days
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: JesusChrist]
    #4569017 - 08/22/05 11:42 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

I hope to god that Iraq doesn't fall into civil war, but chances are it will. Democracy certainly isn't working as of yet, infact Islam and democracy really don't go hand in hand. Besides we weren't told that we were going to Iraq to install a democracy, we were told we were going there to dissarm Saddam of his weapons of mass destruction. The Sunni's will never be happy with their neighbors, because they don't have the oil fields. The kurds have the majority of the oil fields, and the shiit's(spelling?) have a lesser amount of oil fields, but the sunni's are stuck in the middle left with nothing. Thats the major problem, and unless this problem is resolved, civil war will most likely ensue.

Yet another problem with Iraq is border security with the countries around Iraq. Thats where the insurgents are coming from, yet nobody in this administration seems to see this problem, or they are simply just ignoring it.


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OfflineJesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
Posts: 1,459
Last seen: 11 years, 6 months
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: JB201]
    #4569217 - 08/23/05 12:20 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Regime change in Iraq, and installing a democracy has been part of US policy since the Clinton administration. Don't use "we" when you say "we were told". Read the resolution that Congress passed (which John Kerry voted for and John Edwards sponsored).

Read the resolution that Congress used to send us to war. It will tell you in point blank terms that democracy is the goal for Iraq.

That was always part of the plan. I can't for the life of me figure out how you missed it. Go back an look at the historical documents.

The truth will set you free.


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Tastes just like chicken

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InvisibleAlex213
Stranger
Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: JesusChrist]
    #4569220 - 08/23/05 12:21 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Some of these people would cum in their pants if Iraq became a killing field like Cambodia after we pulled out of Indochina. The Left's biggest moments always seem to be the slaughter of millions of innocent people whose only crime was that they wanted freedom, liberty, and self determination.

Unfortunately that's what tends to happen when you launch insane wars of aggression. It's a little harsh blaming the casualties on the people who told you not to go to war in the first place.

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InvisibleRavus
Not an EggshellWalker
 User Gallery

Registered: 07/18/03
Posts: 7,991
Loc: Cave of the Patriarchs
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: Swami]
    #4569232 - 08/23/05 12:23 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

I wish the best for the Iraqis, and while I don't think it'll end up happily, I don't see the evidence for a civil war yet. It's a possibility, but the U.S. would put all of its energy into Iraq first, lest it actually admit itself a failure.

However, if both happen- the U.S. puts its energy into stopping the violence and discontent and the civil war erupts- we could end up with another Vietnam, and that would not bode well for the republicans.

Thinking in the long term though, this isn't a good thing either- we could end up with Hillary Clinton as president.  :oogle:

Shit Swami, if the situation in Iraq worsens, it's going to be a lose-lose situation for America anyway you look at it. Though it might help restore power to the democrats, thereby ensuring checks and balances, which may work out as a positive. Too many possibilities this messy situation can take...


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So long as you are praised think only that you are not yet on your own path but on that of another.

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OfflineJesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
Posts: 1,459
Last seen: 11 years, 6 months
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: Alex213]
    #4569238 - 08/23/05 12:25 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

I guess Pol Pot didn't have a thing to do with the killing of millions. All that blame lies with the thousands of Americans who sacrificed their lives so that those people could be free.

Never thought of that Alex. Good point.


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Tastes just like chicken

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OfflineTao
Village Genius

Registered: 09/19/03
Posts: 7,935
Loc: San Diego
Last seen: 8 years, 9 months
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: Phred]
    #4569243 - 08/23/05 12:27 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

I'm quite sure he also made a prediction about there being a sizeable domestic terrorist attack just before the 2004 U.S. election.


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Magash's Grain Tek  + Tub-in-Tub Incubator + Magash's PMP + SBP Tek + Dunking = Practically all a newbie grower needs :thumbup:

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InvisibleAlex213
Stranger
Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: JesusChrist]
    #4569247 - 08/23/05 12:29 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

It was more to do with the US bombing cambodia back into the stone age, completely destroying it's society that led to the growth of extremists like Pol Pot.

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InvisibleAlex213
Stranger
Registered: 08/22/05
Posts: 1,839
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: Swami]
    #4569250 - 08/23/05 12:30 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Looks like the Swamster is on the button again...

Iraq's ruling coalition submitted a new constitution to parliament last night but delayed a vote for three days to try to win over Sunni Arabs who said it could lead to civil war.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1554619,00.html

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OfflineJesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
Posts: 1,459
Last seen: 11 years, 6 months
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: Ravus]
    #4569256 - 08/23/05 12:33 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Vietnam wasn't a civil war, it was a border way where North Vietnam ignored a treaty that they signed in Paris with the United States of America.

North Vietnam had Soviet tanks run on Soviet gas. They had tens of thousand of Soviet "advisers". Over 300,000 Red Chinese participated for the North Vietnamese in the slaughter.

It wasn't a Civil War. South Vietnam was an independent nation, and a democratic nation at that. The last free election in South Vietnam was over 40 years ago, and over 80% of the people voted. When the North Vietnamese took over, they slaughtered people and sent them to reeducation camps. That isn't a civil war, it was one communist nation beating up and killing a populace that yearned for freedom and self determination.


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Tastes just like chicken

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OfflineJesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
Posts: 1,459
Last seen: 11 years, 6 months
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: Alex213]
    #4569266 - 08/23/05 12:38 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Alex213 said:
It was more to do with the US bombing cambodia back into the stone age, completely destroying it's society that led to the growth of extremists like Pol Pot.




They didn't bomb population centers, they bombed the Ho Chi Mihn trail. Nice revisionist history.

Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia were all overrun by communists that slaughtered people. While all this happened, people on the "new left" were claiming "What domino theory?"

We didn't bomb Laos into the stone age. We didn't bomb South Vietnam into the stone age, and we didn't bomb Cambodia into the stone age.

Cambodian leaders at the time we supportive of the Nixon campaign to rid their country of Vietnamese communists.

We were fighting so that those people would never see that horror, and then we cut and run. It was a fucking slaughter, and the left has blood on their hands.

Who were the boat people?


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Tastes just like chicken

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InvisibleRavus
Not an EggshellWalker
 User Gallery

Registered: 07/18/03
Posts: 7,991
Loc: Cave of the Patriarchs
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: JesusChrist]
    #4569297 - 08/23/05 12:56 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Indeed, there are massive differences between a potential Iraqi civil war and the War in Vietnam, but when I used the term I meant from an American perspective. This could turn into a war of attrition that just gets worse and worse with US casualities mounting and the price tag growing by the billions higher and higher until we finally decide it's not worth it.

It shouldn't be the US's job to be the world police, yet this War in Iraq is just another example of that. They posed no threat to us, yet we decided to waste tens of billions of dollars of my money, and your money, and every other American's money, to fight this pointless war. Instead of worrying about getting out, they should've been intelligent and not bothered to go in.

But the right might just be pouting because the left could be correct this time. At least the polls show the American people are getting fed up with it. And if it does explode into a civil war, or even just progressively worsens with time, this could help the American people think twice before deciding to be the world police again.


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So long as you are praised think only that you are not yet on your own path but on that of another.

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InvisibleSwami
Eggshell Walker

Registered: 01/18/00
Posts: 15,413
Loc: In the hen house
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: Phred]
    #4569414 - 08/23/05 03:18 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

"And of course, not you or anyone else that supports this farce will wager that anyone other than Allawi will be the head puppet; same as before."

How come you didn't take the bet, Phred? I was correct that no one here would wager with me.

As I know you value fairness, quote my entire prediction: He will either not be tried or it will not be publicly held where all can view the facts, and the facts are that he had full and knowing US support during the years when he did the most heinous crimes. I am sure Bush and the CIA are eager for that to be revealed to the American public - NOT!


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The proof is in the pudding.

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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
Male

Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 12,949
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 9 years, 2 months
Re: Countdown to full-blown Iraqi Civil War [Re: Swami]
    #4569735 - 08/23/05 07:53 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

How would my winning a bet have made your prediction less wrong? Care to explain to the readers the reasoning behind that?

As for your prediction that Hussein will not be tried in public, clearly it is still too early to know that, as I noted in my previous post.

Quote:

2. Saddam will not be tried. As I have clearly stated after he was caught, there is too many past USA fuck-ups and CIA arms and weapons connections for him to ever be allowed to publicly speak on his behalf. IF we were SO certain about his crimes why does it take years and years? We will wait until he dies from natural causes, then say, "Well, we are just about ready to try him." If he is actually tried, it will NOT be public.




The reason for the delay in beginning the trial is probably the one given from the start -- that Hussein will be tried by the Iraqi people in a legal manner. No kangaroo court.

Now, one could argue that the current National Assembly legitimately represents the Iraqi people, and that the composition of the law courts as prescribed by the temporary constitution is a legitimate expression of the wishes of the Iraqi people, therefore the trial could have started as early as mid-February of this year. But from your many comments in the "Braveheart Bush" thread I linked to in my previous post, it is clear that you -- Swami -- are not one who finds that argument convincing.

So in order for his to trial be TRULY legitimately an affair of the Iraqi people in Swami's eyes, there must at the very least first be a constitution ratified by the Iraqi populace in a national referendum, and Hussein's trial must be conducted in accordance with that constitution.





Phred


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