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OfflineRonoS
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Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth?
    #4555381 - 08/19/05 12:33 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

...if so, why?


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4555393 - 08/19/05 12:38 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

Define "Peak Oil," please.


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OfflineRonoS
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Seuss]
    #4555409 - 08/19/05 12:43 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

the premise that we have hit our peak oil production and will never have more oil than we do right now...demand for oil will increase, while production will decrease.

Quote:

"We now find one barrel of oil for every four we consume. The general situation seems so obvious.
...How can governments be oblivious of the realities of discovery and their implications...given the critical importance of oil to our entire economy.




Dr. Colin Campbell, ASPO president, in his testimony to the British house of Commons


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"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"

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OfflineProsgeopax
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4555444 - 08/19/05 12:57 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

Futures contracts do not support the concept of peak oil. I would think that people who trade commodities would be bidding up the prices of future contracts based on predictions of peak oil if such predictions had validity to them. Last I heard, this is not happening. If you are confident that there is something to this, it would be wise to invest in futures contracts for petroleum - you could make a lot of money IF you are right.


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Money doesn't grow on trees, but deficits do grow under Bushes.

You can accept, reject, or examine and test any new idea that comes to you. The wise man chooses the third way.
- Tom Willhite

Disclaimer: I reserve the right to change my opinions should I become aware of additional facts, the falsification of information or different perspectives. Articles written by others which I post may not necessarily reflect my opinions in part or in whole, my opinions may be in direct opposition, the topic may be one on which I have yet to formulate an opinion or have doubts about, an article may be posted solely with the intent to stimulate discussion or contemplation.

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Invisiblemoog
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4555474 - 08/19/05 01:09 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

Yes, there is evidence that oil is formed much faster than previously believed, and that there isn't a limited supply. In other words it's NOT a "fossil" fuel. Case in point: an oil field in Pennsylvania was at one point completely depleted and, decades later, oil was found there again. I know that sounds like BS so I'll search for the obligatory links.

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OfflineRonoS
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: moog]
    #4555532 - 08/19/05 01:31 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

you are referring the "Abiotic Oil" theory...

Column: Oil Prices and Recession
by Dale Allen Pfeiffer, FTW Contributing Editor for Energy

excerpt...
A WORD ABOUT ABIOTIC OIL

There is some speculation that oil is abiotic in origin -- generally asserting that oil is formed from magma instead of an organic origin. These ideas are really groundless. All unrefined oil carries microscopic evidence of the organisms from which it was formed. These organisms can be traced through the fossil record to specific time periods when quantities of oil were formed. Likewise, there are two primal energy forces operating on this planet, and all forms of energy descend from one of these two. The first is the internal form of energy heating the Earth's interior. This primal energy comes from radioactive decay and from the heat energy originally generated during accretion of the planet some 4.6 billion years ago. There are no known mechanisms for transferring this internal energy into any secondary energy source. And the chemistry of magma does not compare to the chemistry of hydrocarbons. Magma is lacking in carbon compounds, and hydrocarbons are lacking in silicates. If hydrocarbons were generated from magma, then you would expect to see some closer kinship in their chemistry. The second primal energy source is light and heat generated by our sun. It is the sun's energy that powers all energy processes on the Earth's surface, and which provides the very energy for life itself. Photosynthesis is the miraculous process by which the sun's energy is converted into forms available to the life processes of living matter. Following biological, geological and chemical processes, a line can be drawn from photosynthesis to the formation of hydrocarbon deposits. Likewise, both living matter and hydrocarbons are carbon based. Finally, because oil generation is in part a geological process, it proceeds at an extremely slow rate from our human perspective. Geological processes take place over a different frame of time than human events. It is for this reason that when geologists say that the San Andreas fault is due for a powerful earthquake, they mean any time in the next million years -- probably less. Geological processes move exceedingly slow. After organic matter has accumulated on the sea floor, it must be buried by the process of deposition. In geological time, in order for this matter to be a likely prospect for hydrocarbon generation, the rate of deposition must be quick. Here is an experiment you can conduct to get an idea how slow the rates of deposition are. Place a small stone on the bottom of a motionless pond. Take another stone of about the same size and place it at the mouth of a small stream, a stream where the current is not so great that it will sweep the stone away. Check both of these stones yearly until they have been buried by deposition. You might see the stone at the mouth of the stream covered over within a few years, but it is unlikely that you will see the stone in the pond buried within your lifetime. It is a simple geological fact that the oil we are using up at an alarming rate today will not be replaced within our lifetime -- or within many lifetimes. That is why hydrocarbons are called non-renewable resources. Capped wells may appear to refill after a few years, but they are not regenerating. It is simply an effect of oil slowly migrating through pore spaces from areas of high pressure to the low-pressure area of the drill hole. If this oil is drawn out, it will take even longer for the hole to refill again. Oil is a non-renewable resource generated and deposited under special biological and geological conditions.



So...assuming that the above is true, then it would stand to reason that Oil IS a fossil fuel, and therefor non-renewable. I concede that there is no way to know for sure if we are at peak oil until after the fact...but from what I've read we are currently at peak oil, if not already passed it.


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"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"

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Invisiblemoog
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4555557 - 08/19/05 01:40 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:


Sustainable oil?
May 25, 2004
By Chris Bennett
? 2004 WorldNetDaily.com

About 80 miles off of the coast of Louisiana lies a mostly submerged mountain, the top of which is known as Eugene Island. The portion underwater is an eerie-looking, sloping tower jutting up from the depths of the Gulf of Mexico, with deep fissures and perpendicular faults which spontaneously spew natural gas. A significant reservoir of crude oil was discovered nearby in the late '60s, and by 1970, a platform named Eugene 330 was busily producing about 15,000 barrels a day of high-quality crude oil.

By the late '80s, the platform's production had slipped to less than 4,000 barrels per day, and was considered pumped out. Done. Suddenly, in 1990, production soared back to 15,000 barrels a day, and the reserves which had been estimated at 60 million barrels in the '70s, were recalculated at 400 million barrels. Interestingly, the measured geological age of the new oil was quantifiably different than the oil pumped in the '70s.

Analysis of seismic recordings revealed the presence of a "deep fault" at the base of the Eugene Island reservoir which was gushing up a river of oil from some deeper and previously unknown source.

Similar results were seen at other Gulf of Mexico oil wells. Similar results were found in the Cook Inlet oil fields in Alaska. Similar results were found in oil fields in Uzbekistan. Similarly in the Middle East, where oil exploration and extraction have been underway for at least the last 20 years, known reserves have doubled. Currently there are somewhere in the neighborhood of 680 billion barrels of Middle East reserve oil.

Creating that much oil would take a big pile of dead dinosaurs and fermenting prehistoric plants. Could there be another source for crude oil?

An intriguing theory now permeating oil company research staffs suggests that crude oil may actually be a natural inorganic product, not a stepchild of unfathomable time and organic degradation. The theory suggests there may be huge, yet-to-be-discovered reserves of oil at depths that dwarf current world estimates.

The theory is simple: Crude oil forms as a natural inorganic process which occurs between the mantle and the crust, somewhere between 5 and 20 miles deep. The proposed mechanism is as follows:

* Methane (CH4) is a common molecule found in quantity throughout our solar system ? huge concentrations exist at great depth in the Earth.

* At the mantle-crust interface, roughly 20,000 feet beneath the surface, rapidly rising streams of compressed methane-based gasses hit pockets of high temperature causing the condensation of heavier hydrocarbons. The product of this condensation is commonly known as crude oil.

* Some compressed methane-based gasses migrate into pockets and reservoirs we extract as "natural gas."

* In the geologically "cooler," more tectonically stable regions around the globe, the crude oil pools into reservoirs.

* In the "hotter," more volcanic and tectonically active areas, the oil and natural gas continue to condense and eventually to oxidize, producing carbon dioxide and steam, which exits from active volcanoes.

* Periodically, depending on variations of geology and Earth movement, oil seeps to the surface in quantity, creating the vast oil-sand deposits of Canada and Venezuela, or the continual seeps found beneath the Gulf of Mexico and Uzbekistan.

* Periodically, depending on variations of geology, the vast, deep pools of oil break free and replenish existing known reserves of oil.

There are a number of observations across the oil-producing regions of the globe that support this theory, and the list of proponents begins with Mendelev (who created the periodic table of elements) and includes Dr.Thomas Gold (founding director of Cornell University Center for Radiophysics and Space Research) and Dr. J.F. Kenney of Gas Resources Corporations, Houston, Texas.

In his 1999 book, "The Deep Hot Biosphere," Dr. Gold presents compelling evidence for inorganic oil formation. He notes that geologic structures where oil is found all correspond to "deep earth" formations, not the haphazard depositions we find with sedimentary rock, associated fossils or even current surface life.

He also notes that oil extracted from varying depths from the same oil field have the same chemistry ? oil chemistry does not vary as fossils vary with increasing depth. Also interesting is the fact that oil is found in huge quantities among geographic formations where assays of prehistoric life are not sufficient to produce the existing reservoirs of oil. Where then did it come from?

Another interesting fact is that every oil field throughout the world has outgassing helium. Helium is so often present in oil fields that helium detectors are used as oil-prospecting tools. Helium is an inert gas known to be a fundamental product of the radiological decay or uranium and thorium, identified in quantity at great depths below the surface of the earth, 200 and more miles below. It is not found in meaningful quantities in areas that are not producing methane, oil or natural gas. It is not a member of the dozen or so common elements associated with life. It is found throughout the solar system as a thoroughly inorganic product.

Even more intriguing is evidence that several oil reservoirs around the globe are refilling themselves, such as the Eugene Island reservoir ? not from the sides, as would be expected from cocurrent organic reservoirs, but from the bottom up.

Dr. Gold strongly believes that oil is a "renewable, primordial soup continually manufactured by the Earth under ultrahot conditions and tremendous pressures. As this substance migrates toward the surface, it is attached by bacteria, making it appear to have an organic origin dating back to the dinosaurs."

Smaller oil companies and innovative teams are using this theory to justify deep oil drilling in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, among other locations, with some success. Dr. Kenney is on record predicting that parts of Siberia contain a deep reservoir of oil equal to or exceeding that already discovered in the Middle East.

Could this be true?

In August 2002, in the "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (US)," Dr. Kenney published a paper, which had a partial title of "The genesis of hydrocarbons and the origin of petroleum." Dr. Kenney and three Russian coauthors conclude:

The Hydrogen-Carbon system does not spontaneously evolve hydrocarbons at pressures less than 30 Kbar, even in the most favorable environment. The H-C system evolves hydrocarbons under pressures found in the mantle of the Earth and at temperatures consistent with that environment.

He was quoted as stating that "competent physicists, chemists, chemical engineers and men knowledgeable of thermodynamics have known that natural petroleum does not evolve from biological materials since the last quarter of the 19th century."

Deeply entrenched in our culture is the belief that at some point in the relatively near future we will see the last working pump on the last functioning oil well screech and rattle, and that will be that. The end of the Age of Oil. And unless we find another source of cheap energy, the world will rapidly become a much darker and dangerous place.

If Dr. Gold and Dr. Kenney are correct, this "the end of the world as we know it" scenario simply won't happen. Think about it ... while not inexhaustible, deep Earth reserves of inorganic crude oil and commercially feasible extraction would provide the world with generations of low-cost fuel. Dr. Gold has been quoted saying that current worldwide reserves of crude oil could be off by a factor of over 100.

A Hedberg Conference, sponsored by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, was scheduled to discuss and publicly debate this issue. Papers were solicited from interested academics and professionals. The conference was scheduled to begin June 9, 2003, but was canceled at the last minute. A new date has yet to be set.





http://www.prouty.org/oil.html

http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2002/11nov/abiogenic.cfm

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OfflineRonoS
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: moog]
    #4555655 - 08/19/05 02:14 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

Stated in the article I posted...
"Capped wells may appear to refill after a few years, but they are not regenerating. It is simply an effect of oil slowly migrating through pore spaces from areas of high pressure to the low-pressure area of the drill hole."


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"Life has never been weird enough for my liking"

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OfflineJ4S0N
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4555703 - 08/19/05 02:37 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

I beleive peak oil is a myth. There is still lots of oil, i guess the problem is processing and bringing it to market in a way that the oil companies can still make huge profits.


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4555718 - 08/19/05 02:42 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

I wouldn't say that it is a "myth".

I would say that there is not going to be any peak oil crisis. Coal can be made into oil, and we have enough of that to last us hundreds of years.

That's hundreds of years of rapidly increasing use, not just use at current rates. It's also hundreds of years of rapidly increasing CO2 production unless we find a way around that.

Then there's quadrillions of tons of methane hydrate on the ocean floors. Enough to keep us going for about 1000 years.


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"America: Fuck yeah!" -- Alexthegreat

“Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle. The real extent of this state of misinformation is known only to those who are in situations to confront facts within their knowledge with the lies of the day.”  -- Thomas Jefferson

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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #4555798 - 08/19/05 03:14 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Baby_Hitler said:
Then there's quadrillions of tons of methane hydrate on the ocean floors. Enough to keep us going for about 1000 years.




:thumbup:

No one seems to talk about that, though.

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InvisibleLazlow
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4557552 - 08/20/05 01:02 AM (18 years, 7 months ago)

I don't know how much we'll be able to increase production, but it's a fact that the easy-to-get-to oil has been pumped. A bigger issue in the short term is sulfurous oil.

Most refineries cannot process high-sulfur oil, but the oil that we find is increasingly higher in sulfur. We're going to need to re-tool our refineries or build new ones just to keep production steady.

About "peak oil", I think we will be able to increase production from here, but the costs of doing so will grow quickly. I think the core assertion that supply will, from here on out, be eclipsed by demand is true.

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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4557953 - 08/20/05 05:58 AM (18 years, 7 months ago)

Ah, learned something new today... thanks!  :smile:


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InvisibletrendalM Happy Birthday!
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4558888 - 08/20/05 11:52 AM (18 years, 7 months ago)

Peak Oil isn't a myth. The oil companies know this, they just don't want to start a panic.

I think we are at the peak, right now for conventional sweet-crude. The peak for unconventional oil will probably come 2007-2008, by the looks of things. Of course we won't ever be really certain of when the exact peak was until 10 years or so afterwards (after 10 years of falling production, it should be pretty obvious to everyone).


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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InvisibletrendalM Happy Birthday!
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: trendal]
    #4558897 - 08/20/05 11:56 AM (18 years, 7 months ago)

Here's a graph, by the way, of what oil production has looked like for just the continental USA:



Notice how it peaks in 1971...right when Hubbert predicted it would...

The graph for the Earth as a whole will look like this, once we're on the downsloap.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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InvisibletrendalM Happy Birthday!
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: moog]
    #4558919 - 08/20/05 12:05 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

Quote:

moog said:
Yes, there is evidence that oil is formed much faster than previously believed, and that there isn't a limited supply. In other words it's NOT a "fossil" fuel. Case in point: an oil field in Pennsylvania was at one point completely depleted and, decades later, oil was found there again. I know that sounds like BS so I'll search for the obligatory links.




That doesn't surprise me at all. Most of the strata that oil is found in is quite porous, otherwise we wouldn't be able to get the oil out at all in the first place.

I can suggest an experiment that will show you what is going on in an oil well:

Get a nice thick sponge. One with tiny holes, not large ones. This is, essentially, what the rock is like in an oil field. Now soak that sponge in honey for a few days, to make sure the whole thing is saturated with honey.

Now stick a straw or something similar into the center of the sponge. Push it down as far as you want. Then start sucking honey out of the straw.

What you'll find is, you can suck the honey out FASTER than it seeps through the sponge...so the area directly at the end of your straw will "deplete" faster than the rest of the sponge. You may find that, quickly, the area under the straw becomes void of any oil. You may start sucking air. Now if you leave the sponge for a while, the honey (oil) will slowly seep back into the area of the straw from the surrounding sponge. No new honey has to be added (or created) for this to occur.

This is also the reason why you find MORE than one well for a single oil field. If the oil flowed through the rock like water, or if it was just a big pool of oil, you could probably get by with one large well in the center of the field. Unfortunately oil doesn't flow like water, isn't sitting in a big pool, and the rock itself isn't perfectly porous - so you have to stick a whole bunch of wells at various points in the field.

As for the abiotic oil theory...try explaining the graph I posted above, if oil is constantly being created...


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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OfflineWorldbridger
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: trendal]
    #4558926 - 08/20/05 12:08 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

If this has to do with the energy crisis, there is no energy crisis. We have already found ways to extract way more than enough energy from cubic centimeters than we need. The problem is finding out how to charge people for it.

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InvisibletrendalM Happy Birthday!
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Worldbridger]
    #4558979 - 08/20/05 12:21 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

And let me guess...there's a big conspiracy to keep this technology from the rest of us...  :shiftyeyes:


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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OfflineTao
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4558988 - 08/20/05 12:23 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

I don't believe that Peak Oil is going to cause catastrophy because, to a large extent, I agree with Julian Simon (Wikipedia him if you don't know who I'm referring to) who has yet to really be proved wrong whereas his counterpart Malthus and the rest of doomsayers of resource use have been many times over.

I've noticed just over the past couple years how popular hybrid technology seems to be. Oil prices go up, SUV sales decline and even GM and Porsche start to look into hybrid technology. It's going to take a lot of work, change and technological advancement, but I don't see a disaster in our future.


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InvisibletrendalM Happy Birthday!
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Tao]
    #4559043 - 08/20/05 12:32 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

Whether or not "disaster" comes really depends on how quickly depletion sets in. If oil production declines at the expected 3-5% per year we should be able to do something about it.

If it declines at 20% or greater per year, as we are seeing with some of the fields (take a look at North Sea oil fields...) it could cause drastic economic turmoil.

If Saudi Arabia blows out one or two of their wells...we could see something drastic like that.


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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OfflineTao
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: trendal]
    #4562426 - 08/21/05 11:47 AM (18 years, 7 months ago)

You can already see the wheels of change in motion. I'm not worried too much.


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Magash's Grain Tek  + Tub-in-Tub Incubator + Magash's PMP + SBP Tek + Dunking = Practically all a newbie grower needs :thumbup:

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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4563667 - 08/21/05 05:38 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

I recommend reading Winning the Oil Endgame by Amory Lovins. He talks about some great ideas we can apply using currently available technology to survive Peak Oil. Of particular interest is the hypercar technology, which would increase fuel efficiency in most vehicles by two-thirds, without sacrificing safety or performance.


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OfflineMikeOLogical
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4578571 - 08/25/05 11:29 AM (18 years, 7 months ago)

Peak oil is a farce... there are billions of gallons of oil locked up in tar fields in manitoba... it costs $10 per barrel to extract this oil, while drilling recovers oil at $5 per barrel...

at present, none of the major oil companies wants to risk development of these tar fields because of the fear of a price war with the saudis... if all the drilled oil starts to dry up, to the point where it costs more than $10 a barrel to recover the oil, then the tar fields become the most economical choice...


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we're no longer selling jars.  :laugh:

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OfflineDivided_Sky
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: MikeOLogical]
    #4580533 - 08/25/05 04:32 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

I kind of worry if they run out oil big spots in the earth will cave in because they got emptied out.


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1. "After an hour I wasn't feeling anything so I decided to take another..."
2. "We were feeling pretty good so we decided to smoke a few bowls..."
3. "I had to be real quiet because my parents were asleep upstairs..."

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InvisibleLeftyBurnz
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Divided_Sky]
    #4581640 - 08/25/05 09:09 PM (18 years, 7 months ago)

ive thought of the same thing before, hopefully its nice and spongey enough to hold us up lol


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InvisibleJellric
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: trendal]
    #4660080 - 09/14/05 01:16 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Whether or not "disaster" comes really depends on how quickly depletion sets in. If oil production declines at the expected 3-5% per year we should be able to do something about it.

If it declines at 20% or greater per year, as we are seeing with some of the fields (take a look at North Sea oil fields...) it could cause drastic economic turmoil.




The oil embargo of the 1970's caused massive inflation and a major recession in the United States. That was due to a mere 5% shortfall! It wouldn't take much more to create a global depression.

Hopefully some energy source will come along to save our butts, but there is none on the horizon that I have any confidence in. At the very least we are in for some very hard economic times in the years ahead.


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InvisibleRobin_Thehood
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Jellric]
    #4662282 - 09/14/05 08:42 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

It's not a myth, just not a well founded fact...
I use 'fact' lightly.

By the time we run out of crude oil, transportation will be moved by moonshine, electricity, and hydrogen.
In-fact many farmers are switching to Ethyl fuel as a cleaner burning, cheaper alternative.
Right now as it is, electric cars just can't stand up to the gas competition... it's not long until a TRUE hybrid comes out, ones that can keep time with the locomotives.


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OfflineCatalysis
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Robin_Thehood]
    #4662865 - 09/14/05 10:31 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

In-fact many farmers are switching to Ethyl fuel as a cleaner burning, cheaper alternative.




heh, now we burn food for gas. sweet.

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Invisiblenewuser1492
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Catalysis]
    #4663837 - 09/15/05 07:02 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Master: Me order! Me Master! Me run Bartertown!
Max: Sure, that's why you live in shit!
Master: Not shit! Energy!
Max: Call it what you like. It still smells like shit to me!

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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: newuser1492]
    #4663840 - 09/15/05 07:05 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Lol, I just watched that movie the other night!


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Catalysis]
    #4664102 - 09/15/05 09:01 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Actually, now we can make ethanol from cellulose, which humans cannot digest.


--------------------
"America: Fuck yeah!" -- Alexthegreat

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InvisibleJellric
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Robin_Thehood]
    #4665570 - 09/15/05 02:21 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

By the time we run out of crude oil, transportation will be moved by moonshine, electricity, and hydrogen.

It's not complete oil depletion, but the end of cheap oil which is our problem. The easy to reach oil is taken out first, the rest becomes increasingly more difficult (and thus expensive) to pump out. There will always be oil in the ground, but eventually the energy it takes to pump it out will exceed the energy returned. At that point no one will bother.

Also any transition will take many years and massive spending for related infrastructure to bring them to scale. We may not have that long if the peak is as close as some petroleum geologists predict. I have confidence in our ability to find an ultimate solution(s)- it's the transition time I'm concerned about.

Also ethanol is created using a lot of oil and the EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) is very low. It requires six units of energy to produce only one. It will increase, not decrease, our energy deficit.

If you're talking hydrogen you're also talking about massive retrofitting and infrastructure costs. I've seen some estimates for the costs as high as $350,000,000,000,000 to replace half of our current automotive fleet with hydrogen-powered (fuel cell) cars.

We're so far behind the curve I don't forsee any solution coming online quickly enough to avoid severe economic disruption for years to come.
Have a nice day.  :grin:


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InvisibleLos_Pepes
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Jellric]
    #4670956 - 09/16/05 06:17 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)



Quote:


Since 1981, Shell researchers at the company's division of "unconventional resources" have been spending their own money trying to figure out how to get usable energy out of oil shale. Judging by the presentation the Rocky Mountain News heard this week, they think they've got it.

Shell's method, which it calls "in situ conversion," is simplicity itself in concept but exquisitely ingenious in execution. Terry O'Connor, a vice president for external and regulatory affairs at Shell Exploration and Production, explained how it's done (and they have done it, in several test projects):

Drill shafts into the oil-bearing rock. Drop heaters down the shaft. Cook the rock until the hydrocarbons boil off, the lightest and most desirable first. Collect them.

Please note, you don't have to go looking for oil fields when you're brewing your own.

On one small test plot about 20 feet by 35 feet, on land Shell owns, they started heating the rock in early 2004. "Product" - about one-third natural gas, two-thirds light crude - began to appear in September 2004. They turned the heaters off about a month ago, after harvesting about 1,500 barrels of oil.

While we were trying to do the math, O'Connor told us the answers. Upwards of a million barrels an acre, a billion barrels a square mile. And the oil shale formation in the Green River Basin, most of which is in Colorado, covers more than a thousand square miles - the largest fossil fuel deposits in the world.

Wow.

They don't need subsidies; the process should be commercially feasible with world oil prices at $30 a barrel. The energy balance is favorable; under a conservative life-cycle analysis, it should yield 3.5 units of energy for every 1 unit used in production. The process recovers about 10 times as much oil as mining the rock and crushing and cooking it at the surface, and it's a more desirable grade. Reclamation is easier because the only thing that comes to the surface is the oil you want.

And we've hardly gotten to the really ingenious part yet. While the rock is cooking, at about 650 or 750 degrees Fahrenheit, how do you keep the hydrocarbons from contaminating ground water? Why, you build an ice wall around the whole thing. As O'Connor said, it's counterintuitive.

But ice is impermeable to water. So around the perimeter of the productive site, you drill lots more shafts, only 8 to 12 feet apart, put in piping, and pump refrigerants through it. The water in the ground around the shafts freezes, and eventually forms a 20- to 30-foot ice barrier around the site.

Next you take the water out of the ground inside the ice wall, turn up the heat, and then sit back and harvest the oil until it stops coming in useful quantities. When production drops, it falls off rather quickly.

That's an advantage over ordinary wells, which very gradually get less productive as they age.

Then you pump the water back in. (Well, not necessarily the same water, which has moved on to other uses.) It's hot down there so the water flashes into steam, picking up loose chemicals in the process. Collect the steam, strip the gunk out of it, repeat until the water comes out clean. Then you can turn off the heaters and the chillers and move on to the next plot (even saving one or two of the sides of the ice wall, if you want to be thrifty about it).

Most of the best territory for this astonishing process is on land under the control of the Bureau of Land Management. Shell has applied for a research and development lease on 160 acres of BLM land, which could be approved by February. That project would be on a large enough scale so design of a commercial facility could begin.

The 2005 energy bill altered some provisions of the 1920 Minerals Leasing Act that were a deterrent to large-scale development, and also laid out a 30-month timetable for establishing federal regulations governing commercial leasing.

Shell has been deliberately low-key about their R&D, wanting to avoid the hype, and the disappointment, that surrounded the last oil-shale boom. But O'Connor said the results have been sufficiently encouraging they are gradually getting more open. Starting next week, they will be holding public hearings in northwest Colorado.





http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/news_columnists/article/0,1299,DRMN_86_4051709,00.html


Edited by Los_Pepes (09/16/05 06:22 PM)

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Invisiblenewuser1492
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Los_Pepes]
    #4670981 - 09/16/05 06:29 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

heh we are completely fucking over future generations.

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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: newuser1492]
    #4670996 - 09/16/05 06:34 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

cb9fl said:
heh we are completely fucking over future generations.



Eh, they'd the same to us. The bastards.


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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4676324 - 09/18/05 12:48 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

This is funny, one mod starts a thread on peak oil, and yet back in mid-2004, the other mod, pinksharkmeat, demanded folks justify why a peak oil thread should be allowed to stay in the politics forum.

...like resource war and economics driven by petroleum has nothing to do with politics?


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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Starter]
    #4677109 - 09/18/05 09:26 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Starter said:
yet back in mid-2004, the other mod, pinksharkmeat




Pinksharkmeat?    :lol:

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OfflinePhred
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Starter]
    #4677350 - 09/18/05 11:08 AM (18 years, 6 months ago)

The moderators don't always agree on what should be considered politics, activism, or law.

For example it is quite obvious that threads on global warming per se have no place in this forum, while threads discussing a political response to the threat of global warming (i.e. government restrictions on consumption of fuel) do. However, my past attempts at persuading people to discuss the political implications of climate change have resulted in outpourings of outrage that I dare tell them what is politics and what is science, so I have given up.

It is quite obvious that "peak oil" is another topic that belongs not in PA&L but perhaps in Science and Technology. However, if I were to attempt to move such a thread I would again be faced with cries of "censorship", so I don't bother. However, if no one wishes to introduce any comments re the appropriate government action (or activist action -- which is in essence nothing more than attempting to bring the government's attention to a matter so they will act on it) to the possibility that oil is finally running out, I would have no objection to locking this thread. It seems to have run its course by now anyway.




Phred


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Offlineblu3
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #4679545 - 09/18/05 09:35 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Baby_Hitler said:

Then there's quadrillions of tons of methane hydrate on the ocean floors. Enough to keep us going for about 1000 years.




Link?

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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: blu3]
    #4679644 - 09/18/05 10:01 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)



--------------------
"America: Fuck yeah!" -- Alexthegreat

“Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle. The real extent of this state of misinformation is known only to those who are in situations to confront facts within their knowledge with the lies of the day.”  -- Thomas Jefferson

The greatest sin of mankind is ignorance.

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InvisibleLeftyBurnz
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #4679879 - 09/18/05 10:51 PM (18 years, 6 months ago)

hmm theres a new one to me.


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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: LeftyBurnz]
    #4752347 - 10/03/05 11:35 PM (18 years, 5 months ago)


Trendal! Read this article.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051003/ap_o...TdmBHNlYwM3NTM-


Getting Oil From Shale a Complex Process

By PAUL FOY, Associated Press Writer
Mon Oct 3, 1:52 PM ET


MEEKER, Colo. - Out in sagebrush country, Kenneth Brown is standing over part of the world's most concentrated energy resource, land that holds up to 1 million barrels of oil per acre. Too bad it's locked up in layers of rock in some places hundreds of feet underground.

Such is the dilemma presented by the West's oil shale deposits, believed to contain more than 1 trillion barrels of oil ? four times the holdings of Saudi Arabia, according to government and industry estimates.

Shell Exploration & Production Co. has been out here for nine years, trying to bake shale oil from the ground by using heating rods drilled into layers of rock.

"Things have progressed well in the last two years, which makes us feel good," said Brown, operations manager for Shell's closely guarded test in the middle of desolate Rio Blanco County, about 60 miles from tiny Meeker, the nearest town.

Technological hurdles remain daunting, but that hasn't stopped "people with gleam in their eyes," said Robert Hirsch, a senior energy adviser for San Diego-based Science Applications International Corp. "I think Shell has something that could turn out successful. They've been working on this technology for a long time."

In a report last year, the Energy Department called Shell's technology the most promising but said it will take a "massive capital investment" to unlock Western oil shale.

Shell believes it can make its technique economical as long as crude oil stays above $30 a barrel, but it is five years away from proving the technology or deciding whether to build a commercial-scale operation, said Terry O'Connor, a company vice president for external and regulatory affairs.

Outside Vernal, Utah, officials with Oil-Tech Inc. say they have perfected an older technology of baking oil from shale in a furnace and wants government approval to mine 1,600 acres of state land plus access to 30,000 tons of shale left outside an abandoned mine on federal land.

"We're ready to go as quick as we can get a mining permit and a few bucks," said Byron Merrell, a 63-year-old inventor and stockholder in Oil-Tech.

Oil-Tech and Shell's approaches each has drawbacks, said Jim Bunger, chief executive of the petroleum research firm James W. Bunger & Associates. Oil Tech's proposal is unproven and mining would leave piles of waste.

"I don't think they're as far along as they think they are," he said.

Bunger helped write the Energy Department report issued last year that said Shell may have a problem with lingering groundwater contamination at its spent cook sites.

To address the problem, Shell broke ground this month on a larger test site where it will try to maintain an underground "ice curtain" with refrigerated pipes around a cook site to repel groundwater and keep oil from slipping away.

"This is purely an environmental test. We need to have a higher level of confidence this freeze-wall technology can work on a larger scale," O'Connor said.

EDITOR'S NOTE ? With oil prices soaring, the Bush administration and Congress are pushing for more domestic energy production and encouraging companies to consider ways to extract crude from shale rock. In the second installment of a five-part series, The Associated Press takes a look at the hurdles faced by industry in cranking up oil shale production.

On the Net:

Shell Exploration & Production Co.: http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteIdeandp-en

Oil-Tech Inc.: http://www.oiltechinc.com/

James W. Bunger & Associates: http://www.jwba.com/

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Invisiblenewuser1492
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #4753049 - 10/04/05 06:24 AM (18 years, 5 months ago)

I still believe in Peak Oil in that lacking alternative fossil fuels we would be screwed in maybe 10-15 years. However after having read reports like the above I believe the Earth has much more time to offer us.

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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #4753064 - 10/04/05 06:45 AM (18 years, 5 months ago)

That doesn't bring up anything the previous article you pointed out didn't, so I will just post my response to that article:

Quote:

ust read the article, and I'm still very suspicious, for the following reasons:

-first, they have to heat up a LARGE section of rock (shale oil) to around 650-750 degrees....that isn't cheap, energy-wise (for comparrison, my stove uses around 5000W to heat the oven up to 400 degrees)

-second, they have to use a LARGE refrigeration system to freeze-solid a "wall of ice" around the entire field. refrigeration equipment is incredibly wasteful of energy (again, for comparrison, my "energy efficient" air conditioner uses around 3000 watts to cool my house by a mere 5-10 degrees)

Here's a quote from the article:

"On one small test plot about 20 feet by 35 feet, on land Shell owns, they started heating the rock in early 2004. "Product" - about one-third natural gas, two-thirds light crude - began to appear in September 2004."

If we take "early 2004" to be a conservative estimate of March...then they were continuously heating the rock (and simultaneously freezing everything around it) for six months before they ever got a drop of oil! Then after cointinuing to heat for another year they managed to squeeze out 1,500 barrels of oil. That is, quite frankly, rediculous. 1,500 barrels? Shit, I could piss that much in a year (joke)!

Also, you made a slight error: they didn't say oil from this method would cost $30/barrel...they said it "should be commercially feasible with world oil prices at $30 a barrel". Meaning if crude oil was at $30/barrel, this method of shale oil production would produce about the same profits as the crude oil.

Well prices are over double that price, so shale oil should be more lucrative than Platinum mining right now...if this article has any merit to it.




Quote:

She says they should have an energy balance of 3.5 : 1.

That means for them to extract the 1,500 barrels of oil they got, they can only have used about 425 barrels of oil (or their equivalent, in energy). That's not a whole lot, especially spread out over 18 months. That's about 23 barrels per month - and this has to cover all aspects of the process: heating, cooling, extraction, and transportation.

Sounds like a scam, to me. Or someone hoping their stock will go up.




I maintain that shale oil is an essentially unavailable energy source. As it is in the ground, it can't be used as fuel - it has to be converted into oil first. I think that the conversion process will probably always run at a net energy loss - making shale oil an energy sink, not an energy source.

Even if it does give a net energy gain, the gain will be so slim as to make the process only just barely feasible.

Take a look at the tar sands up here in Canada - in order to mine the stuff they have to use a TON of natural gas to heat up the sand with steam. Natural gas isn't unlimited itself, and the price has been going up lately. It's putting a lot more pressure on the tar-sands guys - every time natural gas goes up in price, the price of their oil goes up. The net gain in energy is pretty dismal, too, something like 1.5:1.


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: trendal]
    #4753118 - 10/04/05 07:20 AM (18 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
I maintain that shale oil is an essentially unavailable energy source.

I think that the conversion process will probably always run at a net energy loss - making shale oil an energy sink, not an energy source.





Um...the article clearly mentions a 3.5:1 energy ratio. No offense, but I am more apt to believe a highly educated energy person than Peak Oil doomsday theories that persist on internet bulletin boards.

Edited by RandalFlagg (10/04/05 07:21 AM)

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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #4753127 - 10/04/05 07:24 AM (18 years, 5 months ago)

I'm not asking you to believe me, silly, you can believe whatever you please :smirk:

I think I already debunked the 3.5:1 idea, see my quote from above.

I am not convinced by such articles, and will not be until I see a shale-oil operation in serious production. That's just me, you can buy into whatever you wish.

"hey trendal you should read these articles...they talk about shale oil"
"ok, I've read them now and here's why I don't believe them..."
"well why should I listen to you, anyway?"

:rolleyes:


--------------------
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: trendal]
    #4753129 - 10/04/05 07:26 AM (18 years, 5 months ago)

And as a side note...

Who is this "highly educated energy person" you have spoken to?

From what I can tell, neither of the articles you've pointed me to have been written by a "highly educated energy person"...just regular newspaper journalists.


--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: trendal]
    #4753151 - 10/04/05 07:34 AM (18 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
Who is this "highly educated energy person" you have spoken to?






Shell believes it can make its technique economical as long as crude oil stays above $30 a barrel


When I said "highly educated energy person" I was not referring to an individual. I was referring in general to the people and companies involved in stuff like this.

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InvisibleRandalFlagg
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: trendal]
    #4753155 - 10/04/05 07:36 AM (18 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

trendal said:
"hey trendal you should read these articles...they talk about shale oil"
"ok, I've read them now and here's why I don't believe them..."
"well why should I listen to you, anyway?"





:razz:

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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #9825333 - 02/19/09 09:22 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

BanHappyBastard said:

Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth?

...if so, why?





Oil prices are now trading at a five-year low.

(around $35 dollars a barrel.)

How much lower will they go, and when does "Peak Oil" start to effect/reflect in oil prices?


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We have "reckless fiscal policies"

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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9831154 - 02/20/09 01:11 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

interesting then/now thread going here.


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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Syle]
    #9831438 - 02/20/09 02:24 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

US oil consumption peeked in 2007 and I don't think it will rebound. I predict world consumption will peek in 2011. I had heard some experts predict this and assuming the world economy rebounds I can't see a problem with this prediction. There are already a lot of clear indicators in the extent and difficulty some extractors are willing to go to to get oil that the cheep stuff is mostly gone. Barring a huge reserve in the Caspian sea and a pipeline project to make that happen we'll likely see a net increase in oil prices gaining in steepness in 2011 until alternatives are forced into the industry by prices and demand.


--------------------
"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: ScavengerType]
    #9831475 - 02/20/09 02:56 AM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Also, no-one other than 'the end is nigh' types actually think we're just going to suddenly run out of oil one day. As the price goes up, more sources will be found (such as shale, tar sands etc) which will increase supply but not lower the price. Obviously this means that eventually oil will be too expensive to use, compared to other forms of energy.
This is how oil will end. Not with a bang but a whimper.


--------------------
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: zouden]
    #9833416 - 02/20/09 01:00 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Obviously the earth does not contain an infinite supply of oil. So for anyone to believe we won't run out at some point has to be living in some sort of fantasy world.

The real problem to me seems to be that we need to get off our dependence on fossil fuels period, because of the effects on the biosphere.

Unfortunately I don't see that a large number of Americans actually care about how the use of fossil fuels affect the planet, but they care about how it affects their pocketbooks. It's a shame. In Europe there is much more demand for "green" technologies because the populace is actually concerned about the future of the planet. One sentiment I see expressed in the US all too often is "I'll be dead before climate change affects me so why should I care?"

European scientists have made great progress on fusion technology which is clean and incredibly efficient. They plan to implement fusion power plants within the next decade. Batteries have been and continue to be developed for electric cars which can allow one to go hundreds of miles on a single charge. Energy efficient "Mag-Lev" trains allow super-fast energy efficient public transport.

I hope these things grow in popularity in the US, but the "clean coal" people and other fossil fuel companies will be lobbying hard to maintain things the way they are. But the ways of harnessing energy which do not pollute and plunder our planet are great in number and we haven't nearly explored them all yet.

The sense of urgency to get off fossil fuels just isn't felt in the US yet the way it is elsewhere. I blame that on poor education and media. "Peak Oil" isn't really the issue. We need to leave the oil in the ground.


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The only difference between the Republican and Democratic parties is the velocities with which their knees hit the floor when corporations knock on their door.
-Ralph Nader


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OfflineScavengerType
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Albino_Jesus]
    #9833547 - 02/20/09 01:24 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

lonestar you do understand that the peek is a peek of consumption, right? That it may effect price but only if the demand causes it to. For example, if we all stopped using gasoline as much as possible tomorrow (opting for bikes instead) the price of gas could fall to ten cents a liter and as long as consumption was ever decreasing then the world would have passed peek oil. Peek oil is thusly a logical inevitability.


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"Have you ever seen what happens when a grenade goes off in a school? Do you really know what you’re doing when you order shock and awe? Are you prepared to kneel beside a dying soldier and tell him why he went to Iraq, or why he went to any war?"
"The things that are done in the name of the shareholder are, to me, as terrifying as the things that are done—dare I say it—in the name of God. Montesquieu said, "There have never been so many civil wars as in the Kingdom of God." And I begin to feel that’s true. The shareholder is the excuse for everything."
- Author and former M6/M5 agent John le Carré on Democracy Now.
Conquer's Club

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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Albino_Jesus]
    #9833700 - 02/20/09 01:48 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Albino_Jesus said:


European scientists have made great progress on fusion technology which is clean and incredibly efficient. They plan to implement fusion power plants within the next decade.




They do, huh?


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Offlinezappaisgod
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: ScavengerType]
    #9833706 - 02/20/09 01:49 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

ScavengerType said:
lonestar you do understand that the peek is a peek of consumption, right? That it may effect price but only if the demand causes it to. For example, if we all stopped using gasoline as much as possible tomorrow (opting for bikes instead) the price of gas could fall to ten cents a liter and as long as consumption was ever decreasing then the world would have passed peek oil. Peek oil is thusly a logical inevitability.




It's peak, not peek.  Peek is what one does outside the sorority window.


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: zappaisgod]
    #9833764 - 02/20/09 02:02 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

:rofl:


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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama

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Invisiblecarbonhoots
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Registered: 09/11/01
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #9834517 - 02/20/09 04:32 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

peek oil is a fascist myth


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  -I'd rather have a frontal lobotomy than a bottle in front of me

CANADIAN CENTER FOR POLICY ALTERNATIVES

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OfflineTrepiodos
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #9838553 - 02/21/09 12:35 PM (15 years, 1 month ago)

As someone else already pointed out, there is no rational reason to believe that oil is in unlimited supply.  World oil production has virtually leveled off (see the chart here) but demand and prices were increasing until the first shoe dropped from the world economy.  Because of falling demand and hence falling prices, the incentive to look for ways to squeeze more oil out of virtually dry sources has diminished and the incentive to explore for more has diminished (for now).  As the world starts to redress it's economic imbalances and the economies of the world start to pick up steam again, look for a large spike in crude prices to follow.  This may very well put the brakes on further growth and lead us into a radical but necessary economic paradigm shift as we are forced to come to grips with constrained sources of energy vs an increasingly populous world trying to transition to a higher energy consumption lifestyle (an American/Western European lifestyle).

Understand that our (U.S.) economy is greatly dependent upon cheap petroleum.  The era of cheap oil is coming to a close and we, psychologically as well as infra-structurally, are ill prepared for the transition.  As evidence of the psychological problem, read some of the derisive posts in this thread or just about any thread here dealing with the concept of peak oil.


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And as things fell apart,
Nobody paid much attention...

- David Byrne, '(Nothing But) Flowers' from the Talking Heads' album, 'Naked'

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