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OfflineRonoS
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Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth?
    #4555381 - 08/19/05 02:33 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

...if so, why?


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4555393 - 08/19/05 02:38 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Define "Peak Oil," please.


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OfflineRonoS
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Seuss]
    #4555409 - 08/19/05 02:43 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

the premise that we have hit our peak oil production and will never have more oil than we do right now...demand for oil will increase, while production will decrease.

Quote:

"We now find one barrel of oil for every four we consume. The general situation seems so obvious.
...How can governments be oblivious of the realities of discovery and their implications...given the critical importance of oil to our entire economy.




Dr. Colin Campbell, ASPO president, in his testimony to the British house of Commons


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OfflineProsgeopax
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4555444 - 08/19/05 02:57 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Futures contracts do not support the concept of peak oil. I would think that people who trade commodities would be bidding up the prices of future contracts based on predictions of peak oil if such predictions had validity to them. Last I heard, this is not happening. If you are confident that there is something to this, it would be wise to invest in futures contracts for petroleum - you could make a lot of money IF you are right.


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Disclaimer: I reserve the right to change my opinions should I become aware of additional facts, the falsification of information or different perspectives. Articles written by others which I post may not necessarily reflect my opinions in part or in whole, my opinions may be in direct opposition, the topic may be one on which I have yet to formulate an opinion or have doubts about, an article may be posted solely with the intent to stimulate discussion or contemplation.


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Invisiblemoog
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4555474 - 08/19/05 03:09 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Yes, there is evidence that oil is formed much faster than previously believed, and that there isn't a limited supply. In other words it's NOT a "fossil" fuel. Case in point: an oil field in Pennsylvania was at one point completely depleted and, decades later, oil was found there again. I know that sounds like BS so I'll search for the obligatory links.


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OfflineRonoS
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: moog]
    #4555532 - 08/19/05 03:31 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

you are referring the "Abiotic Oil" theory...

Column: Oil Prices and Recession
by Dale Allen Pfeiffer, FTW Contributing Editor for Energy

excerpt...
A WORD ABOUT ABIOTIC OIL

There is some speculation that oil is abiotic in origin -- generally asserting that oil is formed from magma instead of an organic origin. These ideas are really groundless. All unrefined oil carries microscopic evidence of the organisms from which it was formed. These organisms can be traced through the fossil record to specific time periods when quantities of oil were formed. Likewise, there are two primal energy forces operating on this planet, and all forms of energy descend from one of these two. The first is the internal form of energy heating the Earth's interior. This primal energy comes from radioactive decay and from the heat energy originally generated during accretion of the planet some 4.6 billion years ago. There are no known mechanisms for transferring this internal energy into any secondary energy source. And the chemistry of magma does not compare to the chemistry of hydrocarbons. Magma is lacking in carbon compounds, and hydrocarbons are lacking in silicates. If hydrocarbons were generated from magma, then you would expect to see some closer kinship in their chemistry. The second primal energy source is light and heat generated by our sun. It is the sun's energy that powers all energy processes on the Earth's surface, and which provides the very energy for life itself. Photosynthesis is the miraculous process by which the sun's energy is converted into forms available to the life processes of living matter. Following biological, geological and chemical processes, a line can be drawn from photosynthesis to the formation of hydrocarbon deposits. Likewise, both living matter and hydrocarbons are carbon based. Finally, because oil generation is in part a geological process, it proceeds at an extremely slow rate from our human perspective. Geological processes take place over a different frame of time than human events. It is for this reason that when geologists say that the San Andreas fault is due for a powerful earthquake, they mean any time in the next million years -- probably less. Geological processes move exceedingly slow. After organic matter has accumulated on the sea floor, it must be buried by the process of deposition. In geological time, in order for this matter to be a likely prospect for hydrocarbon generation, the rate of deposition must be quick. Here is an experiment you can conduct to get an idea how slow the rates of deposition are. Place a small stone on the bottom of a motionless pond. Take another stone of about the same size and place it at the mouth of a small stream, a stream where the current is not so great that it will sweep the stone away. Check both of these stones yearly until they have been buried by deposition. You might see the stone at the mouth of the stream covered over within a few years, but it is unlikely that you will see the stone in the pond buried within your lifetime. It is a simple geological fact that the oil we are using up at an alarming rate today will not be replaced within our lifetime -- or within many lifetimes. That is why hydrocarbons are called non-renewable resources. Capped wells may appear to refill after a few years, but they are not regenerating. It is simply an effect of oil slowly migrating through pore spaces from areas of high pressure to the low-pressure area of the drill hole. If this oil is drawn out, it will take even longer for the hole to refill again. Oil is a non-renewable resource generated and deposited under special biological and geological conditions.



So...assuming that the above is true, then it would stand to reason that Oil IS a fossil fuel, and therefor non-renewable. I concede that there is no way to know for sure if we are at peak oil until after the fact...but from what I've read we are currently at peak oil, if not already passed it.


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Invisiblemoog
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4555557 - 08/19/05 03:40 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:


Sustainable oil?
May 25, 2004
By Chris Bennett
? 2004 WorldNetDaily.com

About 80 miles off of the coast of Louisiana lies a mostly submerged mountain, the top of which is known as Eugene Island. The portion underwater is an eerie-looking, sloping tower jutting up from the depths of the Gulf of Mexico, with deep fissures and perpendicular faults which spontaneously spew natural gas. A significant reservoir of crude oil was discovered nearby in the late '60s, and by 1970, a platform named Eugene 330 was busily producing about 15,000 barrels a day of high-quality crude oil.

By the late '80s, the platform's production had slipped to less than 4,000 barrels per day, and was considered pumped out. Done. Suddenly, in 1990, production soared back to 15,000 barrels a day, and the reserves which had been estimated at 60 million barrels in the '70s, were recalculated at 400 million barrels. Interestingly, the measured geological age of the new oil was quantifiably different than the oil pumped in the '70s.

Analysis of seismic recordings revealed the presence of a "deep fault" at the base of the Eugene Island reservoir which was gushing up a river of oil from some deeper and previously unknown source.

Similar results were seen at other Gulf of Mexico oil wells. Similar results were found in the Cook Inlet oil fields in Alaska. Similar results were found in oil fields in Uzbekistan. Similarly in the Middle East, where oil exploration and extraction have been underway for at least the last 20 years, known reserves have doubled. Currently there are somewhere in the neighborhood of 680 billion barrels of Middle East reserve oil.

Creating that much oil would take a big pile of dead dinosaurs and fermenting prehistoric plants. Could there be another source for crude oil?

An intriguing theory now permeating oil company research staffs suggests that crude oil may actually be a natural inorganic product, not a stepchild of unfathomable time and organic degradation. The theory suggests there may be huge, yet-to-be-discovered reserves of oil at depths that dwarf current world estimates.

The theory is simple: Crude oil forms as a natural inorganic process which occurs between the mantle and the crust, somewhere between 5 and 20 miles deep. The proposed mechanism is as follows:

* Methane (CH4) is a common molecule found in quantity throughout our solar system ? huge concentrations exist at great depth in the Earth.

* At the mantle-crust interface, roughly 20,000 feet beneath the surface, rapidly rising streams of compressed methane-based gasses hit pockets of high temperature causing the condensation of heavier hydrocarbons. The product of this condensation is commonly known as crude oil.

* Some compressed methane-based gasses migrate into pockets and reservoirs we extract as "natural gas."

* In the geologically "cooler," more tectonically stable regions around the globe, the crude oil pools into reservoirs.

* In the "hotter," more volcanic and tectonically active areas, the oil and natural gas continue to condense and eventually to oxidize, producing carbon dioxide and steam, which exits from active volcanoes.

* Periodically, depending on variations of geology and Earth movement, oil seeps to the surface in quantity, creating the vast oil-sand deposits of Canada and Venezuela, or the continual seeps found beneath the Gulf of Mexico and Uzbekistan.

* Periodically, depending on variations of geology, the vast, deep pools of oil break free and replenish existing known reserves of oil.

There are a number of observations across the oil-producing regions of the globe that support this theory, and the list of proponents begins with Mendelev (who created the periodic table of elements) and includes Dr.Thomas Gold (founding director of Cornell University Center for Radiophysics and Space Research) and Dr. J.F. Kenney of Gas Resources Corporations, Houston, Texas.

In his 1999 book, "The Deep Hot Biosphere," Dr. Gold presents compelling evidence for inorganic oil formation. He notes that geologic structures where oil is found all correspond to "deep earth" formations, not the haphazard depositions we find with sedimentary rock, associated fossils or even current surface life.

He also notes that oil extracted from varying depths from the same oil field have the same chemistry ? oil chemistry does not vary as fossils vary with increasing depth. Also interesting is the fact that oil is found in huge quantities among geographic formations where assays of prehistoric life are not sufficient to produce the existing reservoirs of oil. Where then did it come from?

Another interesting fact is that every oil field throughout the world has outgassing helium. Helium is so often present in oil fields that helium detectors are used as oil-prospecting tools. Helium is an inert gas known to be a fundamental product of the radiological decay or uranium and thorium, identified in quantity at great depths below the surface of the earth, 200 and more miles below. It is not found in meaningful quantities in areas that are not producing methane, oil or natural gas. It is not a member of the dozen or so common elements associated with life. It is found throughout the solar system as a thoroughly inorganic product.

Even more intriguing is evidence that several oil reservoirs around the globe are refilling themselves, such as the Eugene Island reservoir ? not from the sides, as would be expected from cocurrent organic reservoirs, but from the bottom up.

Dr. Gold strongly believes that oil is a "renewable, primordial soup continually manufactured by the Earth under ultrahot conditions and tremendous pressures. As this substance migrates toward the surface, it is attached by bacteria, making it appear to have an organic origin dating back to the dinosaurs."

Smaller oil companies and innovative teams are using this theory to justify deep oil drilling in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico, among other locations, with some success. Dr. Kenney is on record predicting that parts of Siberia contain a deep reservoir of oil equal to or exceeding that already discovered in the Middle East.

Could this be true?

In August 2002, in the "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (US)," Dr. Kenney published a paper, which had a partial title of "The genesis of hydrocarbons and the origin of petroleum." Dr. Kenney and three Russian coauthors conclude:

The Hydrogen-Carbon system does not spontaneously evolve hydrocarbons at pressures less than 30 Kbar, even in the most favorable environment. The H-C system evolves hydrocarbons under pressures found in the mantle of the Earth and at temperatures consistent with that environment.

He was quoted as stating that "competent physicists, chemists, chemical engineers and men knowledgeable of thermodynamics have known that natural petroleum does not evolve from biological materials since the last quarter of the 19th century."

Deeply entrenched in our culture is the belief that at some point in the relatively near future we will see the last working pump on the last functioning oil well screech and rattle, and that will be that. The end of the Age of Oil. And unless we find another source of cheap energy, the world will rapidly become a much darker and dangerous place.

If Dr. Gold and Dr. Kenney are correct, this "the end of the world as we know it" scenario simply won't happen. Think about it ... while not inexhaustible, deep Earth reserves of inorganic crude oil and commercially feasible extraction would provide the world with generations of low-cost fuel. Dr. Gold has been quoted saying that current worldwide reserves of crude oil could be off by a factor of over 100.

A Hedberg Conference, sponsored by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, was scheduled to discuss and publicly debate this issue. Papers were solicited from interested academics and professionals. The conference was scheduled to begin June 9, 2003, but was canceled at the last minute. A new date has yet to be set.





http://www.prouty.org/oil.html

http://www.aapg.org/explorer/2002/11nov/abiogenic.cfm


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OfflineRonoS
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: moog]
    #4555655 - 08/19/05 04:14 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Stated in the article I posted...
"Capped wells may appear to refill after a few years, but they are not regenerating. It is simply an effect of oil slowly migrating through pore spaces from areas of high pressure to the low-pressure area of the drill hole."


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OfflineJ4S0N
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4555703 - 08/19/05 04:37 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

I beleive peak oil is a myth. There is still lots of oil, i guess the problem is processing and bringing it to market in a way that the oil companies can still make huge profits.


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4555718 - 08/19/05 04:42 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

I wouldn't say that it is a "myth".

I would say that there is not going to be any peak oil crisis. Coal can be made into oil, and we have enough of that to last us hundreds of years.

That's hundreds of years of rapidly increasing use, not just use at current rates. It's also hundreds of years of rapidly increasing CO2 production unless we find a way around that.

Then there's quadrillions of tons of methane hydrate on the ocean floors. Enough to keep us going for about 1000 years.


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OfflineRedstorm
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #4555798 - 08/19/05 05:14 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Baby_Hitler said:
Then there's quadrillions of tons of methane hydrate on the ocean floors. Enough to keep us going for about 1000 years.




:thumbup:

No one seems to talk about that, though.


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InvisibleLazlow
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4557552 - 08/20/05 03:02 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

I don't know how much we'll be able to increase production, but it's a fact that the easy-to-get-to oil has been pumped. A bigger issue in the short term is sulfurous oil.

Most refineries cannot process high-sulfur oil, but the oil that we find is increasingly higher in sulfur. We're going to need to re-tool our refineries or build new ones just to keep production steady.

About "peak oil", I think we will be able to increase production from here, but the costs of doing so will grow quickly. I think the core assertion that supply will, from here on out, be eclipsed by demand is true.


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OfflineSeussA
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4557953 - 08/20/05 07:58 AM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Ah, learned something new today... thanks!  :smile:


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4558888 - 08/20/05 01:52 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Peak Oil isn't a myth. The oil companies know this, they just don't want to start a panic.

I think we are at the peak, right now for conventional sweet-crude. The peak for unconventional oil will probably come 2007-2008, by the looks of things. Of course we won't ever be really certain of when the exact peak was until 10 years or so afterwards (after 10 years of falling production, it should be pretty obvious to everyone).


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: trendal]
    #4558897 - 08/20/05 01:56 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Here's a graph, by the way, of what oil production has looked like for just the continental USA:



Notice how it peaks in 1971...right when Hubbert predicted it would...

The graph for the Earth as a whole will look like this, once we're on the downsloap.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: moog]
    #4558919 - 08/20/05 02:05 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

moog said:
Yes, there is evidence that oil is formed much faster than previously believed, and that there isn't a limited supply. In other words it's NOT a "fossil" fuel. Case in point: an oil field in Pennsylvania was at one point completely depleted and, decades later, oil was found there again. I know that sounds like BS so I'll search for the obligatory links.




That doesn't surprise me at all. Most of the strata that oil is found in is quite porous, otherwise we wouldn't be able to get the oil out at all in the first place.

I can suggest an experiment that will show you what is going on in an oil well:

Get a nice thick sponge. One with tiny holes, not large ones. This is, essentially, what the rock is like in an oil field. Now soak that sponge in honey for a few days, to make sure the whole thing is saturated with honey.

Now stick a straw or something similar into the center of the sponge. Push it down as far as you want. Then start sucking honey out of the straw.

What you'll find is, you can suck the honey out FASTER than it seeps through the sponge...so the area directly at the end of your straw will "deplete" faster than the rest of the sponge. You may find that, quickly, the area under the straw becomes void of any oil. You may start sucking air. Now if you leave the sponge for a while, the honey (oil) will slowly seep back into the area of the straw from the surrounding sponge. No new honey has to be added (or created) for this to occur.

This is also the reason why you find MORE than one well for a single oil field. If the oil flowed through the rock like water, or if it was just a big pool of oil, you could probably get by with one large well in the center of the field. Unfortunately oil doesn't flow like water, isn't sitting in a big pool, and the rock itself isn't perfectly porous - so you have to stick a whole bunch of wells at various points in the field.

As for the abiotic oil theory...try explaining the graph I posted above, if oil is constantly being created...


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OfflineWorldbridger
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: trendal]
    #4558926 - 08/20/05 02:08 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

If this has to do with the energy crisis, there is no energy crisis. We have already found ways to extract way more than enough energy from cubic centimeters than we need. The problem is finding out how to charge people for it.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Worldbridger]
    #4558979 - 08/20/05 02:21 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

And let me guess...there's a big conspiracy to keep this technology from the rest of us...  :shiftyeyes:


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OfflineTao
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Rono]
    #4558988 - 08/20/05 02:23 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

I don't believe that Peak Oil is going to cause catastrophy because, to a large extent, I agree with Julian Simon (Wikipedia him if you don't know who I'm referring to) who has yet to really be proved wrong whereas his counterpart Malthus and the rest of doomsayers of resource use have been many times over.

I've noticed just over the past couple years how popular hybrid technology seems to be. Oil prices go up, SUV sales decline and even GM and Porsche start to look into hybrid technology. It's going to take a lot of work, change and technological advancement, but I don't see a disaster in our future.


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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: Does anyone here still believe Peak Oil is a myth? [Re: Tao]
    #4559043 - 08/20/05 02:32 PM (11 years, 10 months ago)

Whether or not "disaster" comes really depends on how quickly depletion sets in. If oil production declines at the expected 3-5% per year we should be able to do something about it.

If it declines at 20% or greater per year, as we are seeing with some of the fields (take a look at North Sea oil fields...) it could cause drastic economic turmoil.

If Saudi Arabia blows out one or two of their wells...we could see something drastic like that.


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